OT: Coronavirus Thread (MOD Warning Post #19)

[twabby]

Then move to China.

I would if they'd have me.

Please President Xi, me and my people yearn for freedom.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I would if they'd have me.

Please President Xi, me and my people yearn for freedom.

Seek help.

 

[twabby]

Seek help.

I have. See the following plea for help:

Please President Xi, me and my people yearn for freedom.

 

[g00n]

Please quote where I said everything would be much worse than last year.

I don't know how you can look at 3000+ deaths a day (more than a 9/11 a day) and not be utterly panicked/despondent/depressed about the current situation. Hospitalizations and deaths rose proportionately to cases, with a lag-time of about 23 days as I suggested could be the case. You suggested somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 days because that's what happened last year, and I said this was an incorrect assumption mainly because Delta's deaths lagged longer than 10 days (indeed, around 23 days). You, of course, were wrong.

They absolutely did NOT rise in proportion to cases, and the pattern did mirror last year. But the death rate was much, much lower even though cases were much, much higher.

Cases in MD peaked Jan 9 and deaths peaked Jan 19th. 1o days. For NY it was about 2 weeks.
So within a week or two as predicted.

You said because of the sheer volume from Omicron "Hospitals are going to collapse because they are overwhelmed with patients." Didn't happen. Even nationwide hospitalizations have been going down since Jan 20 or so, just as predicted.

So you're welcome.

 

[g00n]

Please quote where I said everything would be much worse than last year.

OT: - Coronavirus Thread (MOD Warning Post #19)

"They're being hospitalized in greater numbers, isn't it possible they could die in higher numbers as well?"

You opened this thread with these concerns about "how do we know it won't be worse?"

OT: - Coronavirus Thread (MOD Warning Post #19)

If you want to play semantics, fine. But you're clearly sounding the alarm that things are much worse.

OT: - Coronavirus Thread (MOD Warning Post #19)

You continued to argue with me when I said there was nothing to suggest the situation would be much different than last winter. Painting bleak scenarios with "tons" of dead people and predicting system collapse is certainly a prediction that things will be worse than before.

I'm not going to go through all 20 pages or whatever.

 

[twabby]

They absolutely did NOT rise in proportion to cases, and the pattern did mirror last year. But the death rate was much, much lower even though cases were much, much higher.

Cases in MD peaked Jan 9 and deaths peaked Jan 19th. 1o days. For NY it was about 2 weeks.
So within a week or two as predicted.

You said because of the sheer volume from Omicron "Hospitals are going to collapse because they are overwhelmed with patients." Didn't happen. Even nationwide hospitalizations have been going down since Jan 20 or so, just as predicted.

View attachment 505097


So you're welcome.

Yes, hospitalizations and cases rose in proportion to cases, with a national lag-time of about ~23 days per data here: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases

I don't care about MD or NY because I never made the claim that MD and NY would follow the national pattern. I was making the claim about numbers nationally.

I also don't know how you can make the claim that hospitals haven't been overwhelmed with patients and that they haven't undergone collapses in care. Here are two links, but there are plenty more on Google if you'd like to look:

ERs are overwhelmed as omicron continues to flood them with patients
Metro Atlanta hospitals are overwhelmed -- and some ambulances must get diverted, health care leaders say - CNN

 

[g00n]

Yes, hospitalizations and cases rose in proportion to cases, with a national lag-time of about ~23 days per data here: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases

I don't care about MD or NY because I never made the claim that MD and NY would follow the national pattern. I was making the claim about numbers nationally.

I also don't know how you can make the claim that hospitals haven't been overwhelmed with patients and that they haven't undergone collapses in care. Here are two link, but there are plenty more on Google if you'd like to look:

ERs are overwhelmed as omicron continues to flood them with patients
Metro Atlanta hospitals are overwhelmed -- and some ambulances must get diverted, health care leaders say - CNN

Those links are from weeks ago at the peak. You said the system WOULD COLLAPSE and it has not. Again, some of the hospitalization data is for incidental COVID, not ICU.

"Cases and hospitalizations rose in proportion to cases" makes no sense.

Omicron cases were MUCH higher than last winter but the deaths and hospitalizations were only slightly higher. That's what I mean by changing proportionally. I've been saying that for over a month, predicting only a slight bump vs last winter depending on the area.

Nationally you will see hospitalizations continue to decline but deaths will probably rise or level off soon before dropping in the spring. Like last year.

 

[twabby]

OT: - Coronavirus Thread (MOD Warning Post #19)

"They're being hospitalized in greater numbers, isn't it possible they could die in higher numbers as well?"

You opened this thread with these concerns about "how do we know it won't be worse?"

OT: - Coronavirus Thread (MOD Warning Post #19)

If you want to play semantics, fine. But you're clearly sounding the alarm that things are much worse.

OT: - Coronavirus Thread (MOD Warning Post #19)

You continued to argue with me when I said there was nothing to suggest the situation would be much different than last winter. Painting bleak scenarios with "tons" of dead people and predicting system collapse is certainly a prediction that things will be worse than before.

I'm not going to go through all 20 pages or whatever.

I opened this thread because we were bombarded with "omicron is mild" stories from the corporate-aligned media when it first hit and I wanted to dispel that nonsense from the start. This "mild" wave has now surpassed Delta and is just short of last winter's wave in terms of body count. It's been really bad, and worthy of alarm. I'm sorry you don't think 3000+ deaths a day was worth being worried about, but here we are.

 

[g00n]

I opened this thread because we were bombarded with "omicron is mild" stories from the corporate-aligned media when it first hit and I wanted to dispel that nonsense from the start. This "mild" wave has now surpassed Delta and is just short of last winter's wave in terms of body count. It's been really bad, and worthy of alarm. I'm sorry you don't think 3000+ deaths a day was worth being worried about, but here we are.

"Mild" was a description of the symptoms and outcomes compared to previous strains, not a dismissal of the transmissibility. JFC

I can't control whether or not people get vaccinated, bud. If you want them to stop dying then encourage move vaccine uptake.

 

[twabby]

"Mild" was a description of the symptoms and outcomes compared to previous strains, not a dismissal of the transmissibility. JFC

I can't control whether or not people get vaccinated, bud. If you want them to stop dying then encourage move vaccine uptake.

The purpose of these "Omicron is mild" stories was to persuade people to continue working and to go about their daily lives in the name of The Economy. They absolutely latched onto what appeared to be (and turned out to be correct) a lower CFR and IFR in order to get people back to work, knowing full well that this was a bad faith interpretation of how deadly omicron could end up being due to the much higher transmissibility. Indeed, in the US the probability of dying from omicron turned out to be higher than the probability of dying from delta.

 

[g00n]

The purpose of these "Omicron is mild" stories was to persuade people to continue working and to go about their daily lives in the name of The Economy. They absolutely latched onto what appeared to be (and turned out to be correct) a lower CFR and IFR in order to get people back to work, knowing full well that this was a bad faith interpretation of how deadly omicron could end up being due to the much higher transmissibility. Indeed, in the US the probability of dying from omicron turned out to be higher than the probability of dying from delta.

This is a disingenuous and speculative argument.

The media loves controversy and fear. They don't pay the bills by allaying fears and getting people back to work. The more lucrative narrative would've been "Omicron is going to kill you because vaccines won't stop it", which would've played right into your desired outcome.

Unless you're trying to say scientists and experts around the world were in on some massive conspiracy to oppress American workers, which I'm sure you can't possibly be implying.

Then there's the matter of your final sentence which seems like a ridiculous whitewash of statistics and reality.

Omicron associated with 91% reduction in risk of death compared to Delta, study finds

The average person who is vaccinated isn't much affected by the increased transmissibility since their outcome is sure to be milder, which means their chance of dying from Omicron goes DOWN. Since the vast majority of Americans fit this description then the only people who may have seen an increased chance of dying are the unvaccinated.

So the message never changed: GET VACCINATED & BOOSTED.

At this point you're struggling to retroactively justify your alarmism from a month ago, which was a tool to push for an agenda that exists outside of the pandemic.

 

[twabby]

Then there's the matter of your final sentence which seems like a ridiculous whitewash of statistics and reality.

Omicron associated with 91% reduction in risk of death compared to Delta, study finds

Yes, the link you cited does not address transmissibility at all but rather focuses on those with confirmed cases. The probability of dying from omicron is higher, because more people have died of omicron. It's quite simple.

I'm in full agreement with you about getting vaccinated. Everyone should get vaccinated, and everyone should get boosted. I think it should be compulsory as well. I don't want to make it seem like I disagree with your sentiment about getting vaccinated, because I agree wholeheartedly. Vaccinated people are far less likely to have serious health outcomes or death from COVID.

But I'm also not going to ignore or downplay the suffering that unvaccinated people have endured. These are still people, even if they have made and continue to make very poor choices. A lot of these people are now dead (every week a Capital One Arena's worth of dead bodies from the US alone), and that's alarming and why I'm in favor of lockdowns. I'm sorry you don't agree.

 

[g00n]

Yes, the link you cited does not address transmissibility at all but rather focuses on those with confirmed cases. The probability of dying from omicron is higher, because more people have died of omicron. It's quite simple.

I'm in full agreement with you about getting vaccinated. Everyone should get vaccinated, and everyone should get boosted. I think it should be compulsory as well. I don't want to make it seem like I disagree with your sentiment about getting vaccinated, because I agree wholeheartedly. Vaccinated people are far less likely to have serious health outcomes or death from COVID.

But I'm also not going to ignore or downplay the suffering that unvaccinated people have endured. These are still people, even if they have made and continue to make very poor choices. A lot of these people are now dead (every week a Capital One Arena's worth of dead bodies from the US alone), and that's alarming and why I'm in favor of lockdowns. I'm sorry you don't agree.

You don't have to ignore or downplay suffering to acknowledge the actual dynamics of the situation and recognize that the "probability" of dire outcomes is entirely within their control.

That's the difference here, and you're trying to make it sound like a weaker virus is naturally more deadly due to transmissibility when the chance of mortality, not simply infection, is almost entirely predictable and manageable.

So there's no need to pretend a deadlier virus is being ignored. The measures to protect against a weaker but more ubiquitous virus are being ignored by people who have access to the vaccine that will save their lives. Their probability of dying is not the same as the raw deadliness of the strain, and is up to them.

As a leader you have to consider the greater good, and in this case it does not involve imposing massive hardships on 80-90% of the population simply because some people obstinately refuse to do the REAL 'right thing'.

 

[g00n]

Opinion | The secret ingredient that makes societies better at fighting Covid

Welp, that blows up your theory, Twabbs.

 

[twabby]

Opinion | The secret ingredient that makes societies better at fighting Covid

View attachment 505119

Welp, that blows up your theory, Twabbs.

Yet the same piece includes the following passage:

We’ve found that people who reject vaccines are not necessarily less scientifically literate or less well-informed than those who don’t,” they wrote. “Instead, hesitancy reflects a transformation of our core beliefs about what we owe one another.” They attribute a great deal of that transformation to a global trend of governments cutting social services and delegating them to the private sector, where they're less evenly accessible and class disadvantage breeds suspicion of institutions.

The cost of austerity policy is greater than just cutting off vulnerable people’s access to services — it also narrows people's perception of community, solidarity and citizenship.

Seems like this author agrees that less privatization, and more government-provided benefits for all would do something to increase trust.

 

[g00n]

Yet the same piece includes the following passage:



Seems like this author agrees that less privatization, and more government-provided benefits for all would do something to increase trust.

The ACT of CUTTING existing benefits has the effect of causing distrust and lowering community association. The issue is TRUST in the institution, which is broken when the cuts are made. The benefits themselves are not what's transformative. This was already quoted above.

Also:

There is a proven propaganda apparatus that creates this situation and is currently virtually impossible to completely counteract.

Lobbing "generous benefits for all" will not have the effect you hope it will, just as access to vaccines themselves isn't enough to get these people to actually receive them. ANYTHING can be reframed in a way that creates the perception of an enemy assault on the target audience's allegedly vulnerable "freedoms" or rights.

Even now when something good is done or money is spent it's immediately spun into something sinister, wasteful, unamerican, or covert. Your "generous benefits for all" will be seen as "commie mandates and tyranny rackin' up the debt and takin' away our jerbs!"

So unless you can find a way to get that 20-40% out there to TRUST the other side (and consensus reality) enough to get the jab and get boosted, no amount of generous benefiting is going to make a difference... and may actually make the resistance worse.

 

[g00n]

I also suspect this study is a bit optimistic. There are some people who really don't know the science one bit.

If you go around thinking a vaccine "sheds" or turns you into a 5G cyborg, that's not just distrust of official sources that's dent-head stupidity.

 

[twabby]

The ACT of CUTTING existing benefits has the effect of causing distrust and lowering community association. The issue is TRUST in the institution, which is broken when the cuts are made. The benefits themselves are not what's transformative. This was already quoted above.

Also:

View attachment 505141


There is a proven propaganda apparatus that creates this situation and is currently virtually impossible to completely counteract.

Lobbing "generous benefits for all" will not have the effect you hope it will, just as access to vaccines themselves isn't enough to get these people to actually receive them. ANYTHING can be reframed in a way that creates the perception of an enemy assault on the target audience's allegedly vulnerable "freedoms" or rights.

Even now when something good is done or money is spent it's immediately spun into something sinister, wasteful, unamerican, or covert. Your "generous benefits for all" will be seen as "commie mandates and tyranny rackin' up the debt and takin' away our jerbs!"

So unless you can find a way to get that 20-40% out there to TRUST the other side (and consensus reality) enough to get the jab and get boosted, no amount of generous benefiting is going to make a difference... and may actually make the resistance worse.

I don’t think it’s a leap to suggest that if cutting benefits erodes trust that increasing benefits will increase trust.

I say we increase these benefits to never before seen levels, both as a measure to end this pandemic but also because more benefits are inherently good things.

 

[g00n]

I don’t think it’s a leap to suggest that if cutting benefits erodes trust that increasing benefits will increase trust.

I say we increase these benefits to never before seen levels, both as a measure to end this pandemic but also because more benefits are inherently good things.

So just ignore everything you just read, thus proving it.

 

[HTFN]

You're taking 7 days. Take since Jan 1st and tell me the NY VS FL data.

Again, even if you say just the last 7 days - still doesn't differentiate that it's basically zero difference between wide open states and mandated areas.

... besides economy, happiness, people wanting to be there, jobs, etc are better in Florida.

So obviously FL is handling covid better than NY and it's not even close.

Again, doesn't matter though. Covid is what people have decided to live with and that's the way it's going to be. There won't be lockdowns, fed Govt mandates for private sectors, etc tried any more. Freedom is winning again. Thank god.

watching you blast through this thread "correcting" real science is like watching a bunch of kittens playing on a loaded handgun, it would be really adorable if it wasn't so f***ing dangerous

 

[g00n]

IOC under fire for conditions inside COVID isolation centers

Yes let's do what China does, throw people with COVID basically into prison cells and slop them like pigs.

If they're doing this to olympic athletes --who will undoubtedly communicate conditions to the oustide world-- what are they doing to the average Chinese citizen?

 

[twabby]

IOC under fire for conditions inside COVID isolation centers

Yes let's do what China does, throw people with COVID basically into prison cells and slop them like pigs.

If they're doing this to olympic athletes --who will undoubtedly communicate conditions to the oustide world-- what are they doing to the average Chinese citizen?

It seems to me like some complaints were made, and then these complaints were addressed.

It's also hard to take the author seriously when he says the following:

Forget the Chinese. The bar of expectations with them is so low it's a wonder the athletes weren't sent to the fields to pick crops while they waited for their tests.

Surely, this organic opinion didn't impact the constant editorializing that was present in the column.

 

[g00n]

It seems to me like some complaints were made, and then these complaints were addressed.

It's also hard to take the author seriously when he says the following:



Surely, this organic opinion didn't impact the constant editorializing that was present in the column.

Why? Because you don't agree with it? Does it change the facts on the ground? Maybe diversify your sources if you think China is utopia.

 

[g00n]

@twabby since you appear to be someone who is so pro-labor and seemingly all about human rights I'm a little surprised that you'd prioritize "stigginit" to capitalism over all other principles in choosing to align yourself with China

China’s Disregard for Human Rights - United States Department of State

I will believe the athletes and their governments over China 7 days of the week.

 

[twabby]

Why? Because you don't agree with it? Does it change the facts on the ground? Maybe diversify your sources if you think China is utopia.

What are the facts on the ground? Were the complaints not addressed? Do we know if these mistakes were made because of the Chinese government, or could it have been the IOC itself that failed to initially address the items in question? Was it hyperbole to suggest that these athletes were thrown into jail because they didn't like their food and that their hotel rooms were a bit dirty? Because I have to tell you, I've had some pretty crummy meals in my life and I've stayed in some hotel rooms that were maybe a little dusty and didn't get vacuumed before I arrived. It was annoying, but somehow I survived!

At some point you need to actually deal with facts yourself. The data shows that China, for instance, has one of the lowest death rates in the world due to COVID. About 800-900 times lower than the United States. You refuse to accept this, and instead take it on blind faith that they must be hiding millions of corpses because they are China. That's your proof.

I have said that China has dealt with COVID in a better way than most of the world, and that we should follow suit. Until literally a shred of evidence is provided by you to indicate that China is not actually doing about 800 to 900 times better than the United States I am going to assume you are arguing in bad faith and I won't engage you on the subject of China any more.

You are applying the same level of thought about China that anti-vaxxers apply to virology and epidemiology. As you have mentioned before, people get bombarded with propaganda all of the time and it'd hard not to absorb it. But instead of being bombarded with Facebook posts showing that vaccines are microchipped, you have been bombarded by corporate Western media sources for decades about how China must be horrible. Ignoring of course why these media sources might have an interest in making China look much worse than they actually are.

When you realize the uncomfortable truth that you have also been duped, perhaps you will understand why I think it's pretty bad that we are letting hundreds of thousands of unvaccinated people die in the name of making rich people richer!