You can look at it just in terms of numbers if it helps.
Let’s say it has a 1% chance of killing you. I’m just picking that number randomly, and it’s pretty clear the number varies on your own risk factors, but let’s go with 1%. That means out of 1000 people, 10 could die. Okay, that’s not awful, but it’s still 10 people.
But every time you add a zero to the number of infected, you add a zero to the number of deaths. The New York City has, what? 8 million people in a pretty confined place? That’s 80,000 possible deaths. California has almost 40 million people, I believe? 400,000.
With exponential growth, a number can start small and get very big very quickly, and a small percentage of a very large number is still a very large number.
And keep in mind that we’re just looking at possible deaths directly from the Coronavirus if measures aren’t taken. You want to know the really scary thing? What happens if the hospitals suddenly get overwhelmed. Hospitals are not equipped to handle the kind of numbers we could be talking about. There are not enough respirators. There aren’t enough beds. There aren’t enough nurses or supplies. The number of possible deaths would increase and, again, that’s just from the Coronavirus. What about people who need to go to the hospital for other reasons? An overwhelmed hospital is far less capable of taking care of you.
I think people are mistaking what things look like now and dismissing it as a non-issue, but the real concern is how it could look in two weeks, or a month. That’s the real danger. If we don’t get a handle on it now, it has the potential to be pretty catastrophic. That’s why it’s important that we get on this now. We still aren’t sure how many cases there are, because there isn’t enough testing yet, and the combination of a long incubation period and minor symptoms for a lot of people means they may be walking around thinking they are fine while infecting people.