Coronavirus/NHL Suspension Talk

[KyleJRM]

So what are the death rates then? I'm all for new and better information by science that I can trust.

Most of the estimates seem to be zooming in on the 0.5-1 range.

Just checked Sweden's deaths for the country and with no lockdown they had 4k deaths on a population of 10m which is below 0.05% and they are way way ahead of the curve than us. They wont even hit 0.1% and for a super contagious virus that is supposed to spread to everyone, and which has already flattened, I am not seeing anything anywhere near 1% of deaths.

Most people use "death rate" to mean percentage of infected who die, not percentage of the population. The last estimates I saw from them had antibody testing showing about 5% of the population had been infected, but that was three weeks ago. Första resultaten från pågående undersökning av antikroppar för covid-19-virus — Folkhälsomyndigheten That would be about 500k cases, at a time when they had reported about 4000 deaths. That would be a death rate of 0.8%.

 

[Terry Yake]

As I suspected you are locked into your feelings and emotions with no room for additional evidence that may conflict with your mindset. No need for further discussion.

so you agree with his argument that there's "little to no evidence that reopening will cause a spike in cases," despite the fact that states that reopened are literally seeing spikes in cases?

looks like you're the one "locked into your feelings and emotions" here

 

[GreatBear]

Just checked Sweden's deaths for the country and with no lockdown they had 4k deaths on a population of 10m which is below 0.05% and they are way way ahead of the curve than us. They wont even hit 0.1% and for a super contagious virus that is supposed to spread to everyone, and which has already flattened, I am not seeing anything anywhere near 1% of deaths.

Your analysis of the Swedish death rate has already been addressed and I need not comment on its fallacy.

It is interesting to note that even Sweden had some restrictions on activities, although not to the same degree as the United States or other countries in Europe. Even so, Sweden's top epidemiologist has stated that if they had to do it all over again that he would have imposed greater restrictions in Sweden than was done. There were too many deaths there in his opinion, and even now Sweden's death rate is higher than that of other countries in Europe. Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

I also disagree that the COVID-19 virus curve has flattened. Cases in previously harder hit areas have declined, particularly in the Northeast where very stringent stay at home orders were put in place. But cases in other areas are increasing. New highs for new cases have been hit this week in a good number of Southern states that have reopened sooner that elsewhere, including Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas. Increasing cases have also been found in states outside of the South, including Arizona, California, Oregon, and Utah. (source, Washington Post). Orange County just hit a record high number of new cases since the start of the pandemic. (source, Orange County Health Care Agency).

If you look at the number of new cases reported, nationwide, for each of the last five Saturdays, you see an increase in new cases over time.

May 17 - 18,899
May 24 - 19,326
May 31 - 21,483
June 6 - 23,881
June 13 - 25,855
(Source, Washington Post)

 

[OCSportsfan]

After reading many of these posts, here are some thoughts.

1) I really dont think shutting down the economy was about the death rate %, regardless of what it ends up being, it was the perceived infection rate. (Which I think we are starting to realize was not as bad as originally thought)
2) At the beginning of a pandemic, you dont have time to wait for results, you take the information you have and make assumptions (They had China and some European country results to analyze). It was growing exponentially in the USA, so basically in 30 days they thought it was going to be millions of people in the USA without any way to stop it. They went aggressive rather than hoping it would be better.
3) We have to open the economy now, so people can actually get it and fight it off during the summer. If there is no vaccine until 2021, and we did not open the economy now, then i think it would be worse this fall.
4) I am not sure the ventilators helped anyone
5) People are correct that this disease terminally affects those that are older, but that fact does not mean those younger people should be able to run free since they wont die. The older citizens would eventually be infected since there would be more people contagious. Now as i stated above. at some point you cant run from this, or society will have bigger problems than the amount that die from Covid 19.
6) This will come back in the fall, hopefully we have either a vaccine, or better medication to treat those affected
7) Most importantly, the politicians and news stations are only going to say things to get elected and make headlines.


I found this on line in case anyone has the Pneumonia argument (that deaths have dropped off significantly). Basically every year the reported pneumonia deaths look like they are really low, but over the next 8 weeks, the curve becomes more in line with previous years as the final reporting comes in. There is always a lag in reporting.. What you need to see is how many deaths combined with Pneumonia, Covid and this years flu compare to previous years, at the end of the year.

 

[KyleJRM]

Your analysis of the Swedish death rate has already been addressed and I need not comment on its fallacy.

It is interesting to note that even Sweden had some restrictions on activities, although not to the same degree as the United States or other countries in Europe. Even so, Sweden's top epidemiologist has stated that if they had to do it all over again that he would have imposed greater restrictions in Sweden than was done. There were too many deaths there in his opinion, and even now Sweden's death rate is higher than that of other countries in Europe. Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

I also disagree that the COVID-19 virus curve has flattened. Cases in previously harder hit areas have declined, particularly in the Northeast where very stringent stay at home orders were put in place. But cases in other areas are increasing. New highs for new cases have been hit this week in a good number of Southern states that have reopened sooner that elsewhere, including Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas. Increasing cases have also been found in states outside of the South, including Arizona, California, Oregon, and Utah. (source, Washington Post). Orange County just hit a record high number of new cases since the start of the pandemic. (source, Orange County Health Care Agency).

If you look at the number of new cases reported, nationwide, for each of the last five Saturdays, you see an increase in new cases over time.

May 17 - 18,899
May 24 - 19,326
May 31 - 21,483
June 6 - 23,881
June 13 - 25,855
(Source, Washington Post)

going solely by raw cases punishes states for doing more testing and rewards them for doing less

 

[GreatBear]

going solely by raw cases punishes states for doing more testing and rewards them for doing less

There is some basis to support your comment. It certainly has been used as an argument that matters are not getting more serious even though the number of cases is increasing in certain states. The governor of Texas has made this comment in response to the increasing number of cases in Texas. Of course the increase in the number of tests in Texas does nothing to explain the increase in the number of hospitalizations in Texas.

I also need to be convinced that the number of tests is actually going up at this point in time. I have not seen any national or statewide data base that reports the number of tests given on a statewide basis. Perhaps it exists, but I have not found it. Testing numbers are almost certainly higher now than in March and April, when testing was very limited. However, testing has become more available from some time in May, and I have not seen any data that since an initial increase at that point in time that the number of tests given has further increased.

Orange County publishes test number information, and testing has been relatively constant since Mid May. That is one reason why I looked at the number of new cases from May 17 onward.

Another data point that would be useful to know is the percentage of positive findings from the test results, to see if that percentage is increasing or decreasing. I have seen a number of articles for localized areas or states on this topic, but have not been able to find a regular data base that reports this information. I have not seen any particular trend in the articles that I have read indicating that the percentage of positive findings of total test results has changed significantly.

It would certainly be very useful to use hospitalization numbers since those numbers include the most serious cases. Unfortunately I have not found hospitalization numbers on either a national or state by state basis. I have found a few articles on hospitalizations for some states, which tend to be written if the state has hit a new high in hospitalizations, such as an article on North Carolina and Texas doing so. I also can see the Orange County data on its website, which indicates a new high in the number of hospitalized patients as of June 13, the last date for which Orange County is providing such data.

 

[KyleJRM]

If you follow Nate Silver on Twitter, he does a good job of updating tests done every day. It’s definitely going up consistently.

Whether or not things are getting worse is kind of subjective. Cases are plummeting in most places where it got really bad, but stubbornly level or growing slightly in places that weren’t that bad originally. Deaths have been on a strong downswing for quite awhile now.

A lot fewer people dying, disaster areas recovering, new disaster areas possibly emerging but not at disaster levels yet, and lessening restrictions pretty much everywhere. Personally, I would call that getting better, but I can see the argument that it isn’t.

 

[la patineuse]

There is some basis to support your comment. It certainly has been used as an argument that matters are not getting more serious even though the number of cases is increasing in certain states. The governor of Texas has made this comment in response to the increasing number of cases in Texas. Of course the increase in the number of tests in Texas does nothing to explain the increase in the number of hospitalizations in Texas.

I also need to be convinced that the number of tests is actually going up at this point in time. I have not seen any national or statewide data base that reports the number of tests given on a statewide basis. Perhaps it exists, but I have not found it. Testing numbers are almost certainly higher now than in March and April, when testing was very limited. However, testing has become more available from some time in May, and I have not seen any data that since an initial increase at that point in time that the number of tests given has further increased.

Orange County publishes test number information, and testing has been relatively constant since Mid May. That is one reason why I looked at the number of new cases from May 17 onward.

Another data point that would be useful to know is the percentage of positive findings from the test results, to see if that percentage is increasing or decreasing. I have seen a number of articles for localized areas or states on this topic, but have not been able to find a regular data base that reports this information. I have not seen any particular trend in the articles that I have read indicating that the percentage of positive findings of total test results has changed significantly.

It would certainly be very useful to use hospitalization numbers since those numbers include the most serious cases. Unfortunately I have not found hospitalization numbers on either a national or state by state basis. I have found a few articles on hospitalizations for some states, which tend to be written if the state has hit a new high in hospitalizations, such as an article on North Carolina and Texas doing so. I also can see the Orange County data on its website, which indicates a new high in the number of hospitalized patients as of June 13, the last date for which Orange County is providing such data.

As far as testing in OC, I think it is still limited. The City of LA and LA County have opened up testing for a while now and anyone who registers, with or without symptoms (people at higher risk or employed in essential services get priority), can get a test if there is capacity. Long Beach, which has its own pubic health agency, also has opened up testing, but citizens in Long Beach could still get tested earlier at county-run test sites.

 

[la patineuse]

UCI Medical Center reported the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations was 44 as of last Friday, which is double the amount as of Memorial Day weekend, about 2-1/2 weeks, and hospitalizations had been averaging about 40 per day for about a week. UCI says they have been prepared for this and capacity is not an issue as of now. I don't know about other hospitals in OC.

Also, I've been told by someone whose daughter is a cardiac-care nurse at UCLA. There was a higher number when there was an initial increase in the number of hospitalizations (I don't know the number or the exact timeframe), then it went down to an average of about 3 patients and is now up to around 18. I heard this third-hand, so I don't know how valid these numbers are and I don't know if the numbers are hospital-wide at the LA campus medical center or just in one ward of the hospital or in the UCLA network of hospitals (but I think it might just be for one location).

 

[Static]

 

[Terry Yake]

so CA has made masks mandatory in "public and high risk places" but it'll make no difference since no one will actually enforce it

 

[Static]

so CA has made masks mandatory in "public and high risk places" but it'll make no difference since no one will actually enforce it

It's up to businesses to enforce it. People are so f***ing selfish.

 

[Terry Yake]

It's up to businesses to enforce it. People are so f***ing selfish.

i've only seen a few stores actually enforce it

and sometimes they'll only enforce it at the door and the a**holes take it off as they make their way further back

 

[Static]

i've only seen a few stores actually enforce it

and sometimes they'll only enforce it at the door and the a**holes take it off as they make their way further back

There are always going to be bad actors, but having a formal policy will at least raise the percentage of people wearing them for some allotment of time. Who knows how many cases of severe illness or death that will stop. Enough to make it worth the effort, easily.

 

[McDonald19]

Source: Lightning close facility due to virus

I think it’s time to give up on the 19-20 season. It won’t be the first time the cup isn’t awarded.

 

[Paul4587]

If they some how still decide to go ahead with it all there should be the biggest asterisk ever by the champions name. Just call it a day already.

 

[AngelDuck]

Not only is this sham of a playoffs not going to happen, next season is also in serious jeopardy

 

[bsu]

Now Auston Matthews have COV-19.

 

[Paul4587]

Simmons is a hack for reporting that. Medical records should be kept private.

 

[Static]

If Matthews has it then Freddie does as well since they are living together. Hope they recover without complications.

They live in Arizona, which is an utter shit-show right now.

 

[AngelDuck]

This virus is not particularly dangerous for people their age and health level but yeah hopefully Everything goes smoothly

 

[Leonardo87]

Source: Lightning close facility due to virus

I think it’s time to give up on the 19-20 season. It won’t be the first time the cup isn’t awarded.

I agree, just have to focus on next season, which will likely get off to a late start. It’s already proving that those who re-opened too quickly saw spikes. Won’t be able to see a game in person till maybe Dec or Jan anyway.

 

[Paul4587]

If Matthews has it then Freddie does as well since they are living together. Hope they recover without complications.

They live in Arizona, which is an utter shit-show right now.

Freddie has been training in California recently, he’s no longer in Arizona. No idea when exactly he exactly he left but he was definitely not there earlier this week as overdrive was commenting on his whereabouts days before this news broke.

 

[Static]

Freddie has been training in California recently, he’s no longer in Arizona. No idea when exactly he exactly he left but he was definitely not there earlier this week as overdrive was commenting on his whereabouts days before this news broke.

That's good then

 

[la patineuse]

I agree, just have to focus on next season, which will likely get off to a late start. It’s already proving that those who re-opened too quickly saw spikes. Won’t be able to see a game in person till maybe Dec or Jan anyway.

The Phillies, Blue Jays and Giants have also closed down their Florida training facilities and Clemson's football team has 23 players who have tested positive.

Yeah, this professional sports thing isn't such a good idea, especially for the players who are in such close contact in the locker rooms, training facilities, in arenas and on the field (maybe less so outside, but football players are in very close contact) and when they are traveling.