OT: Coronavirus chat

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UncleRisto

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Jul 7, 2012
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I'd say the (much) bigger issue is we don't have the template to make a vaccine for this type of virus and it could turn into HIV 2.0 where they failed for the last 35 years to find a vaccine.
They have pre-existing work and a lot of resources are being thrown at this. I think they will get there eventually if the situation doesn't die down altogether. But in the meantime, I think the ongoing tests for treatments will get to a place where the severity is lowered enough to return to relative normalcy soon enough.
 

Avsboy

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Dec 12, 2006
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Why do people think that the virus will just go away? Is it because that we are used to influenza? This virus is actively spreading all over the world right now in all possible climate combinations (cold, hot, dry, humid).

Even if we get a "peak" soon and start reopening businesses after that, it won't just leave by itself for no reason. It will come back until either:

A) They find a cure
B) They find a vaccine (they never found one for any coronavirus)
C) 60% to 70% of the population gets it and becomes immunized (even that, we don't even know yet if we truly become immunized after recovery).

Either way, it's not realistic to expect any of these things to happen in the next few months.

For those who are waiting for a vaccine there's a sizeable chance that they never find one for covid-19 (like they never found one for HIV or previous coronaviruses). Even that 1.5 year projection is wishful thinking.

Considering the resources being poured into this they will certainly find a cure or treatment. There is also the option to force everyone to stay home with the military.
 

henchman21

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Fact of the matter is that even if the virus can't be solved, the world can't function shutdown. If people can't work, they can't eat and they can't pay for medical care.

An interesting fact about SARS (also a coronavirus)... after it died off, it has never reappeared. We don't know enough here to make huge guesses to how this will or won't play out.
 

CharlesPuck

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Apr 25, 2017
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Fact of the matter is that even if the virus can't be solved, the world can't function shutdown. If people can't work, they can't eat and they can't pay for medical care.

An interesting fact about SARS (also a coronavirus)... after it died off, it has never reappeared. We don't know enough here to make huge guesses to how this will or won't play out.

Was there any seasonality with SARS? Wasn't that in the middle of the summer?
 

henchman21

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Was there any seasonality with SARS? Wasn't that in the middle of the summer?

Started in Nov 2002 and was 'contained' by July 2003. The last known case was in 2004. If you look at the surge, it really climbed in April, May of 2003 and started dying off shortly after that. So pretty similar timeframe to here.
 

Balthazar

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Why was [SARS] wiped out in about a year, while some experts warn that Covid-19 may be around forever? Because SARS usually didn’t become contagious until several days after symptoms appeared. This meant that, as four British infectious disease experts wrote in 2004, “actions taken during this period to isolate or quarantine ill patients can effectively interrupt transmission.” They proposed adding another variable to disease-transmission models: the proportion of transmission occurring prior to symptoms.

Source
 

Avsboy

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Dec 12, 2006
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This may have to end with everyone wearing masks for the forseeable future. Someone needs to invent a better mask, one that catches a higher % of small molecules and is easily removable.
 

UncleRisto

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Jul 7, 2012
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Face masks aren't a solution to anything at all. No one f***ing knows how to use or when to exchange a face mask, or anything about the different grades of masks, but anything anyone's talking about is face masks. Are you putting your mask on and taking it off in a way that's not contaminating? Definitely you're sterilizing your homemade mask between every use, right? And you're wearing it tight enough to actually do anything, so there's marks on your face every day? But also you're exchanging it whenever it gets wet from your own breath? And you're absolutely not taking it off to eat an ice cream cone?
 

Foppa2118

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Oct 3, 2003
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I'd say the (much) bigger issue is we don't have the template to make a vaccine for this type of virus and it could turn into HIV 2.0 where they failed for the last 35 years to find a vaccine.

They actually do have a bit of a template. They started the SARS vaccine research but ended it when SARS died out over the summer. They might be better off now if they continued that research, but it should help a bit hopefully.

Another thing that isn't talked about much is Immunoglobulin Replacement Therepy. Which is injecting antibodies straight into patients to help fend off the virus.

The Mayo clinic as well as another company have just been approved by the FDA to start doing antibody tests, which could hopefully lead to this type of therapy down the road.
 

Foppa2118

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Oct 3, 2003
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Hmmm, don't know how I whiffed on that. I could have sworn I read in numerous places that coronaviruses were responsible for the flu. Bad memory I guess.

You could be thinking of the common cold which can be caused by common human coronaviruses. As opposed to this novel (new) coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2 which causes the disease COVID-19.
 

henchman21

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Face masks aren't a solution to anything at all. No one f***ing knows how to use or when to exchange a face mask, or anything about the different grades of masks, but anything anyone's talking about is face masks. Are you putting your mask on and taking it off in a way that's not contaminating? Definitely you're sterilizing your homemade mask between every use, right? And you're wearing it tight enough to actually do anything, so there's marks on your face every day? But also you're exchanging it whenever it gets wet from your own breath? And you're absolutely not taking it off to eat an ice cream cone?

I've seen so many people wearing N95 masks improperly... which eliminates the whole point...
 
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The Kingslayer

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Aug 26, 2004
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Face masks aren't a solution to anything at all. No one f***ing knows how to use or when to exchange a face mask, or anything about the different grades of masks, but anything anyone's talking about is face masks. Are you putting your mask on and taking it off in a way that's not contaminating? Definitely you're sterilizing your homemade mask between every use, right? And you're wearing it tight enough to actually do anything, so there's marks on your face every day? But also you're exchanging it whenever it gets wet from your own breath? And you're absolutely not taking it off to eat an ice cream cone?
Been saying pretty much all this on twitter.
 

Balthazar

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I've seen so many people wearing N95 masks improperly... which eliminates the whole point...

People in Asia are literally forced to wear face masks not to protect themselves but to protect others. Infected people with masks are less likely to spread droplets containing the virus.

The real reason they told us not to wear a mask isn't because it's a false sense of security, it's because we don't have enough. Next pandemic everyone will have a mask you can bank on that one. Showing people how to properly wear a mask isn't a tough task.
 
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Foppberg

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Nov 20, 2016
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People in Asia are literally forced to wear face masks not to protect themselves but to protect others. Infected people with masks are less likely to spread droplets containing the virus.

The real reason they told us not to wear a mask isn't because it's a false sense of security, it's because we don't have enough. Next pandemic everyone will have a mask you can bank on that one. Showing people how to properly wear a mask isn't a tough task.
A little of column A, a little from column B IMO.
 

Tweaky

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Asia is a big place. Bigger than Europe and North America combined. Not every place has the same rules. Pretty sure Dubai has different behaviors when it comes to masks than Singapore. Here, they are officially discouraged, though with the PM's speech yesterday, that is changing. But by no means is it a rule. However, it is considered courteous to wear one if you are ill, to help prevent infecting others. And an N95 mask, even worn imperfectly (as long as it covers mouth and nose) will help with that. It will do nothing for protection of the wearer, and most folks here know that. But they wear them to protect the community. And there are of course some that stupidly horde them...they were hard to find for a while, and the govt had to threaten prosecution for profiteering (may have even made some arrests). But for the most part, the percentage of people wearing them is not much higher than it was a year ago. And with the new rules in place (no retail aside from food, etc), there will be much less traffic. The govt had been slowly add bits to the shelter-in-place and no-gathering rules, but that was accelerated yesterday. My theory is the speed up is due to the fact that they confirmed a case in a bus driver. One bus driver. And that was the last straw to close down nearly everything. Prior to yesterday, schools were still going, gatherings could be up to 10 people, all stores were open...even the rink was doing public skate (but no league or shinny). Today, rink and all stores (except food and essentials) are closed, schools are shifting to online learning by Wednesday...all because they ID'd one bus driver with nCoV-19. Well, and we cracked 1000 cases, and had our 3rd death.
 

Balthazar

I haven't talked to the trainers yet
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A little of column A, a little from column B IMO.
Director of National Public Health here has been challenged recently about that...originally he said that we shouldn't wear masks because we don't know how to do it, false sense of security and we'd touch our face too much and repeated all the WHO directions about it...but lately he admitted that infected people should absolutely wear masks.

Problem is not everyone is tested and not everyone is showing symptoms. So in the end everyone should wear masks.

But obviously we just don't have them and we should keep them for the nurses and doctors.

I can understand why they said that BTW, imagine if people ordered masks at the beginning like they did with toilet paper.

I can't believe how unprepared we were. Countries will change after this, everyone wants to be self-sufficient now.
 
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