Speculation: Copp's future?

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

I have my doubts that @garret9 ever posted such things.

Garret has been wrong quite frequently & has vehemently defended all the players @TS Quint referred as well as critical of the Stanley pick even prior to the Jets selecting him, beating that drum hard all the way up until last season.

With that said, Garret is certainly allowed to be wrong. There's no certainly in probability, he only needs to be right more often than he is wrong.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Garret has been wrong quite frequently & has vehemently defended all the players @TS Quint referred as well as critical of the Stanley pick even prior to the Jets selecting him, beating that drum hard all the way up until last season.

With that said, Garret is certainly allowed to be wrong. There's no certainly in probability, he only needs to be right more often than he is wrong.

Whatever comments Garret made would have been well thought out and articulate. It's the encapsulating of reasoned arguments into idiotic hash tags and sound bites that I felt was misrepresentative and frankly, rather insulting.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Garret has been wrong quite frequently & has vehemently defended all the players @TS Quint referred as well as critical of the Stanley pick even prior to the Jets selecting him, beating that drum hard all the way up until last season.

With that said, Garret is certainly allowed to be wrong. There's no certainly in probability, he only needs to be right more often than he is wrong.

Again, context.
He isn't wrong about Stanley yet. He criticized drafting him that early and the trade up to get him. He has often said Stanley probably becomes an NHL player. But IIRC, he projected him as a 3rd pair player, which is all he is so far.

Personally, I have softened on the whole move based on the lack of better players available where we would have drafted. I credit Chevy with having recognized the lack of more talent and moving to get one of the last decent prospects.

Garrett was quite different. There were a couple of good players left and Garrett had been stumping for picking them with the picks we had. I believe he would have taken both DeBrincat and Girard with 22 and 36. That's not hindsight. He was pumping them well before the draft.

It is still pretty hard to argue that DeBrincat + Girard are not worth more than Stanley and Green.

 

[enuffidiotsalready]

copp?

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Again, context.
He isn't wrong about Stanley yet. He criticized drafting him that early and the trade up to get him. He has often said Stanley probably becomes an NHL player. But IIRC, he projected him as a 3rd pair player, which is all he is so far.

Personally, I have softened on the whole move based on the lack of better players available where we would have drafted. I credit Chevy with having recognized the lack of more talent and moving to get one of the last decent prospects.

Garrett was quite different. There were a couple of good players left and Garrett had been stumping for picking them with the picks we had. I believe he would have taken both DeBrincat and Girard with 22 and 36. That's not hindsight. He was pumping them well before the draft.

It is still pretty hard to argue that DeBrincat + Girard are not worth more than Stanley and Green.

My response wasn't meant to trivialize Garrett, but rather in response to @nobody imp0rtant who appeared dismissive of Garrett ever being wrong.

As for Stanley, Garrett never attacked his game. My recollection of that week was he was tipped off of the Jets drafting intentions & then wrote an article addressing why drafting Stanley wasn't a good use of a 1st round selection. The main takeaway had been that in nearly all cases CHL defensemen in their draft year who go to NHL careers, have significantly better offensive production than Stanley did in his.

Once Stanley was selected, future comments from Garrett were that picks 22+36 had greater value than picks 18+79.

Nothing Garrett ever said on these matters was wrong, but they did serve as a rallying cry for many others that hated the pick & then cited Garrett's previous comments on the matter to make their own cases against Big Stan.

Back on topic, I've yet to read todays Athletic which addresses all of Copp/Pionk/Stanley & how to fit them all under the cap. Anyone have thoughts on Ates article today?

 

[surixon]

My response wasn't meant to trivialize Garrett, but rather in response to @nobody imp0rtant who appeared dismissive of Garrett ever being wrong.

As for Stanley, Garrett never attacked his game. My recollection of that week was he was tipped off of the Jets drafting intentions & then wrote an article addressing why drafting Stanley wasn't a good use of a 1st round selection. The main takeaway had been that in nearly all cases CHL defensemen in their draft year who go to NHL careers, have significantly better offensive production than Stanley did in his.

Once Stanley was selected, future comments from Garrett were that picks 22+36 had greater value than picks 18+79.

Nothing Garrett ever said on these matters was wrong, but they did serve as a rallying cry for many others that hated the pick & then cited Garrett's previous comments on the matter to make their own cases against Big Stan.

Back on topic, I've yet to read todays Athletic which addresses all of Copp/Pionk/Stanley & how to fit them all under the cap. Anyone have thoughts on Ates article today?
View attachment 459154

Nothing really new that hasn't been discussed here. Stanley likely at a two year bridge around $1 million aav, Pionk will use the Morrissey contract as a comparable. Copp can go a number of different ways depending on what he wants.

 

[Jets4Life]

My response wasn't meant to trivialize Garrett, but rather in response to @nobody imp0rtant who appeared dismissive of Garrett ever being wrong.

As for Stanley, Garrett never attacked his game. My recollection of that week was he was tipped off of the Jets drafting intentions & then wrote an article addressing why drafting Stanley wasn't a good use of a 1st round selection. The main takeaway had been that in nearly all cases CHL defensemen in their draft year who go to NHL careers, have significantly better offensive production than Stanley did in his.
View attachment 459158

Once Stanley was selected, future comments from Garrett were that picks 22+36 had greater value than picks 18+79.

Nothing Garrett ever said on these matters was wrong, but they did serve as a rallying cry for many others that hated the pick & then cited Garrett's previous comments on the matter to make their own cases against Big Stan.

Back on topic, I've yet to read todays Athletic which addresses all of Copp/Pionk/Stanley & how to fit them all under the cap. Anyone have thoughts on Ates article today?
View attachment 459154

Garrett is just like an other HFBoards poster here. He is knowledgeable, but like most, has been wrong as well as right over time. He often pumped up Dano, Petan, and Niku, while constantly bemoaning Stanley, and in particular Tanev. He just happens to be more vocal then many of us. Nothing wrong with that.


As for cap space, I have a bad feeling Copp will be the odd man out. Stanley is still regarded as a project in the work, and no way the Jets will want to lose Pionk.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

My response wasn't meant to trivialize Garrett, but rather in response to @nobody imp0rtant who appeared dismissive of Garrett ever being wrong.

I don't know how you got that from what I wrote, but whatevs...

 

[JetsUK]

Garrett is just like an other HFBoards poster here. He is knowledgeable, but like most, has been wrong as well as right over time. He often pumped up Dano, Petan, and Niku, while constantly bemoaning Stanley, and in particular Tanev. He just happens to be more vocal then many of us. Nothing wrong with that.


As for cap space, I have a bad feeling Copp will be the odd man out. Stanley is still regarded as a project in the work, and no way the Jets will want to lose Pionk.

Well, I mean he works in hockey analytics for a living, and has made some substantial and recognized contributions to the state of the art in that field, so he's not really like very many of us here. He's a pro, who IIRC is partly interested as a researcher in understanding and mobilizing what he takes to be inefficiencies in the market evaluation of players and prospects, and then exploiting those for team gain (and monetizing those gains for his firm). I doubt he'd argue that he's never wrong, and my guess is that being wrong in the world of analytics might be viewed as simply adding more data that should add to your understanding and help you be more right more often going forward. I feel like I've learned a lot from his posts over the years.

I think we're often tempted to engage in a very human bias when evaluating players who have "won" and developed into NHL assets as having being a product of GM/scouting savvy and good team development (and their own strengths) and efforts while also arguing that those players who don't make it fail on their own merits -- sort of a version of the "just world hypothesis.". Sometimes it's more complicated than that, and that's where looking to optimize even the thinnest margins can pay off.

I'm not sure where we end up with Copp. He's valuable, and part of that value is the trust he's earned from a coaching staff that may not have warmed up yet to his obvious successor in Gus or maybe Harkins. No reason either can't bring a good part of what Copp brings, though, and maybe a trial by fire is what they and the team need going forward -- like Injury Replacement Stanley was last year. I don't see Copp as a 5 million dollar player, and I hoe the Jets and arbitrator don't.

But that's one of the reasons you play your prospects when they're ready to play, IMO -- you know what you have in them, and don't spend big trying to replace what you may already have.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

My response wasn't meant to trivialize Garrett, but rather in response to @nobody imp0rtant who appeared dismissive of Garrett ever being wrong.

As for Stanley, Garrett never attacked his game. My recollection of that week was he was tipped off of the Jets drafting intentions & then wrote an article addressing why drafting Stanley wasn't a good use of a 1st round selection. The main takeaway had been that in nearly all cases CHL defensemen in their draft year who go to NHL careers, have significantly better offensive production than Stanley did in his.
View attachment 459158

Once Stanley was selected, future comments from Garrett were that picks 22+36 had greater value than picks 18+79.

Nothing Garrett ever said on these matters was wrong, but they did serve as a rallying cry for many others that hated the pick & then cited Garrett's previous comments on the matter to make their own cases against Big Stan.

Back on topic, I've yet to read todays Athletic which addresses all of Copp/Pionk/Stanley & how to fit them all under the cap. Anyone have thoughts on Ates article today?
View attachment 459154

It works both ways. Taking someone's analysis out of context to attack the analysis or to support your own position. As you say, he never attacked his game, but some used his position to attack Stanley.

 

[ps241]

Well, I mean he works in hockey analytics for a living, and has made some substantial and recognized contributions to the state of the art in that field, so he's not really like very many of us here. He's a pro, who IIRC is partly interested as a researcher in understanding and mobilizing what he takes to be inefficiencies in the market evaluation of players and prospects, and then exploiting those for team gain (and monetizing those gains for his firm). I doubt he'd argue that he's never wrong, and my guess is that being wrong in the world of analytics might be viewed as simply adding more data that should add to your understanding and help you be more right more often going forward. I feel like I've learned a lot from his posts over the years.

I think we're often tempted to engage in a very human bias when evaluating players who have "won" and developed into NHL assets as having being a product of GM/scouting savvy and good team development (and their own strengths) and efforts while also arguing that those players who don't make it fail on their own merits -- sort of a version of the "just world hypothesis.". Sometimes it's more complicated than that, and that's where looking to optimize even the thinnest margins can pay off.

I'm not sure where we end up with Copp. He's valuable, and part of that value is the trust he's earned from a coaching staff that may not have warmed up yet to his obvious successor in Gus or maybe Harkins. No reason either can't bring a good part of what Copp brings, though, and maybe a trial by fire is what they and the team need going forward -- like Injury Replacement Stanley was last year. I don't see Copp as a 5 million dollar player, and I hoe the Jets and arbitrator don't.

But that's one of the reasons you play your prospects when they're ready to play, IMO -- you know what you have in them, and don't spend big trying to replace what you may already have.

Excellent post!!

 

[kanadalainen]

Copp's future?

(coaxes crystal ball to life, the mists clearing, vision coming to focus)

I see...hm, lots of green... money everywhere....

I see...

A large articulate and process-oriented gentleman known for his prowess on the phone, not smiling. Wait, he's weeping...

I see...

A different man, rings on every finger, gradient rose tinted sunglasses, grease welling visibly from his skull, his soul radiating greed, his name rhyming with Clover Chart, grinning with evil intent....

I see...

A shining knight, the arbitrator. It is too late? (dramatic music crescendo)

I see...

Legions of Jets' fans wandering the drought-afflicted taiga amid kettle bowls of melting permafrost, wondering where the bottom six has gone.....

I see...

Other somewhat familiar players quickly materializing and vanishing, a legacy of competence, Apples, Tanev, someone who's feeling it...

I see...

The three norns, cackling merrily, wielding their shears, poised to cut the threads of life and fate.

I see...

A triple triple, perched precariously in the cup holder of my battered sedan, waiting patiently to be consumed.

 

[cbcwpg]

Almost every player that goes thru arbitration ends up leaving the team that put him thru the process. And now the Jets might be putting Copp thru it for a second time.

I want Copp to stay here long term, but the price has to fit within the team budget and makeup. If he can't , then move him if the return is good, otherwise he plays for 1 more year.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Almost every player that goes thru arbitration ends up leaving the team that put him thru the process. And now the Jets might be putting Copp thru it for a second time.

I want Copp to stay here long term, but the price has to fit within the team budget and makeup. If he can't , then move him if the return is good, otherwise he plays for 1 more year.

Is the team putting him through arb or is he putting the team?

 

[Whileee]

Is the team putting him through arb or is he putting the team?

Copp filed for arbitration. Pionk did, too.

 

[surixon]

Copp filed for arbitration. Pionk did, too.

Do we have hearing dates yet?

 

[Adam da bomb]

Copp filed for arbitration. Pionk did, too.

Yes I know I was replying to @cbcwpg that the team was putting him through arb.

 

[Jetsfan79]

Do we have hearing dates yet?

I'm wondering that too. Im hoping its closer to Aug 11 than 26 so we get this over with.

The differing hearings schedule of Copp and Pionk may influence the Jets on the timing on how they tackle the negotiations.

 

[schmockeyknife]

copp's gone imo. he priced himself off the team with his high stats in a weird year and that will make his agent salivate for a better deal than we can give him. i really liked his game(other than his finish) and it sucks to lose him but managers gotta manage

 

[Jetsfan79]

If the Jets can get within half a million of what Copp wants (his final offer), I think he stays a Jet. That half million can be compensated if the Jets lose Beaulieu and sign a minimum salary D.

Copp is entrenched into our system like a well oiled machine. When you trade for someone new, there's always an unknown element. Paying a bit extra to retain that certainty is worth it IMO. But nothing over half a million. 750 k too much is already a roster spot equivalence in $. We cant give Copp that.

 

[gojetsgo]

I just don't really see a contract that works for either copp or the jets. on a long term deal copp is going to want to get paid for his production last season and I don't think jets view him as a top 6 forward and I don't think copp would want a 2-3 year deal when he's most likely only getting 3rd line minutes in a shut down role

 

[Jetsfan79]

Maybe Chevy will sign everyone else first. Then say to Copp "look: This is what we have left for cap space and what we are willing to give you. We made a big push to compete this year with our off season adds. This is what we can give you, take it and try to win with us or we work out a mutual benefit trade or go through arb. "

 

[Jetsfan79]

The unknown element here is Copp's desire to win v.s contract value/opportunity.

If he can get 5X5 in Detroit or 4.5 X5 in WPG, does he take where he can get more opportunity or stay with a team that he already has chemistry with and has a better chance to compete/be in the playoffs in the next 3-5 years?

 

[Skidooboy]

anyone who thinks Copp isn't going to arbitration and then gone in UFA is crazy.

we can't afford pay him his ask(he's not worth it).
so we pitch a team friendly value, he asks for arbitration, he now will have gone to arbitartion twice. He wasn't happy last time about it, he isn't happy about the Jet's value for him, and he will take the arbitration contract for 1 year become UFA and walk. book it.


I'm a biiig chevy fan......but he screwed the pooch on this. He should have signed Copp and shipped him off to Seattle. Soon, Chevy's failure to protect Apples will really bite our asses.

 

[Jetsfan79]

anyone who thinks Copp isn't going to arbitration and then gone in UFA is crazy.

we can't afford pay him his ask(he's not worth it).
so we pitch a team friendly value, he asks for arbitration, he now will have gone to arbitartion twice. He wasn't happy last time about it, he isn't happy about the Jet's value for him, and he will take the arbitration contract for 1 year become UFA and walk. book it.


I'm a biiig chevy fan......but he screwed the pooch on this. He should have signed Copp and shipped him off to Seattle. Soon, Chevy's failure to protect Apples will really bite our asses.

Am I crazy thinking its 50/50?
or else he gets traded?