Speculation: Copp's future?

[Jetsfan79]

You want me to defend your strawman now ? You won already. If you would like to discuss anything I actually said we can do that.

Just curious here . Who was our best defenseman last year in your opinion,? Would you reverse engineer the Trouba trade if it can be done today? Would you say Pionk
is better than Charoit? Charoit is a 1st pair guy on a good team (that made the finals)

But on 2nd thought your right. Hes average . We need someone who can keep up with the elite speed of Connor McDavid and shut him down. Average Pionk can't do that. Agree?

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Be average then. We have 3 years. I want a cup. This is our best chance. This doesn't mean as a can't keep him at the end of the day.

Using Garrett as an authority with me means zero. He says a lot of things. #freepostma, #freedano, #freepetan, Hutch is going to be great, Burmi is a 2c, Stanley is too tall. Etc etc etc.

I have my doubts that @garret9 ever posted such things.

 

[TS Quint]

Just curious here . Who was our best defenseman last year in your opinion,? Would you reverse engineer the Trouba trade if it can be done today? Would you say Pionk
is better than Charoit? Charoit is a 1st pair guy on a good team (that made the finals)

But on 2nd thought your right. Hes average . We need someone who can keep up with the elite speed of Connor McDavid and shut him down. Average Pionk can't do that. Agree?

This doesn't seem sincere . Funny how one poster throws out a straw man and other lemming follow.

Being the Jets best defensemen is like being the tallest of Snow White's friends.

So your plan is to give Pionk his long term contract, lose Copp for pennies on the dollar because that's what will happen right now with most teams with little cap space, to just replace Copp at the deadline with a lesser player with an overpay because that's how the deadline works.

 

[Adam da bomb]

This doesn't seem sincere . Funny how one poster throws out a straw man and other lemming follow.

Being the Jets best defensemen is like being the tallest of Snow White's friends.

So your plan is to give Pionk his long term contract, lose Copp for pennies on the dollar because that's what will happen right now with most teams with little cap space, to just replace Copp at the deadline with a lesser player with an overpay because that's how the deadline works.

But Copp is average or less than average.

 

[Jetsfan79]

This doesn't seem sincere . Funny how one poster throws out a straw man and other lemming follow.

Being the Jets best defensemen is like being the tallest of Snow White's friends.

So your plan is to give Pionk his long term contract, lose Copp for pennies on the dollar because that's what will happen right now with most teams with little cap space, to just replace Copp at the deadline with a lesser player with an overpay because that's how the deadline works.

Ok this is where we part from reality. Unless you applied a false equivalence fallacy here. By definition, dwarfs are not "average height" With that analogy, your actually saying Pionk is below average. In a way contradicting your self by saying he is at least average. My question about who you think is our best defenseman was a way to gauge your overall understanding of our defense corps. Which I think is relevant whenever you consider making big changes to your team. Similar to coming to an understanding of terms in a scientific debate.

Pionk (to me) is borderline elite or at least has shown that he has that up side. Being able to effectively close gaps and keep up with with the best hockey player in the world should be an indicator that he is above average. Is it possible he is still average and he has some selective quirk that makes him play well again McDavid? Or that his advanced metrics are a mirage or not sustainable? I guess. But we have also seen linear progression in his game. No reason to think that doesn't continue.

Speaking of strawmen. Tell me when I said or even implied this:

So your plan is to give Pionk his long term contract, lose Copp for pennies on the dollar

I have never said that. My post to you is challenging the opinion that Pionk is "average". Its a spinoff argument from the one your were having with the other poster. I think he would be a top pairing guy in allot of Teams. Are there better defensemen out there than Pionk? For sure. But saying that doesnt necessarily mean he is simply "average" I also think we can find a way to keep both. If need be , we can trade Copp for a reasonable return. Not saying that's what will happen ofcourrse.

 

[scelaton]

This doesn't seem sincere . Funny how one poster throws out a straw man and other lemming follow.

Being the Jets best defensemen is like being the tallest of Snow White's friends.

So your plan is to give Pionk his long term contract, lose Copp for pennies on the dollar because that's what will happen right now with most teams with little cap space, to just replace Copp at the deadline with a lesser player with an overpay because that's how the deadline works.

The lemmings would be most interested in your answers to the questions posed by Jetsfan 79. Aside from comparing Pionk to a fairy tale dwarf, it is not clear what you think his NHL comparables are.

The following is not a fairy tale. Pionk is in the top ~15 in scoring for NHL D over the past 2 years and has very good advanced metrics in most other phases of the game. He hits a lot and effectively for a man his size and is quick and smart enough to keep up with a McDavid. Evolving Hockey projects his AAV in the $6 million range, which is where I would like to see him land in a long-term deal.

Copp is one of my favourite players and I'd love to keep him, but it will be difficult. He may well want the opportunity and AAV that playing on a weaker team's top-6 affords him, because he won't get it on the Jets. That makes him a lower priority than Pionk, who has top-pairing potential.

Suggesting Chevy would get "pennies on the dollar" for Copp and comparing Pionk to a dwarf don't constitute a credible position, so why don't you provide one for consideration.

edit: I see Jetsfan 79 has already responded so apologize for any redundancy

 

[TS Quint]

But Copp is average or less than average.

Interesting opinion.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Interesting opinion.

Especially compared to Pionk. I think Pionk is closer to being a great top 4 player than Copp is to being a decent top 6 player.
So if you are comparing all the d and saying Pionk is average and comparing all the forwards you have to give Copp a less than average score.

 

[Weezeric]

The Kyrou deal is a good comp for Chevy 2.8M and he scored 35 points last year.

 

[TS Quint]

Especially compared to Pionk. I think Pionk is closer to being a great top 4 player than Copp is to being a decent top 6 player.
So if you are comparing all the d and saying Pionk is average and comparing all the forwards you have to give Copp a less than average score.

Did you you just call Pionk a 2nd pair defenseman? Because most people do not call defensemen they think are top pair defensemen good top 4.

 

[TS Quint]

Ok this is where we part from reality. Unless you applied a false equivalence fallacy here. By definition, dwarfs are not "average height" With that analogy, your actually saying Pionk is below average. In a way contradicting your self by saying he is at least average. My question about who you think is our best defenseman was a way to gauge your overall understanding of our defense corps. Which I think is relevant whenever you consider making big changes to your team. Similar to coming to an understanding of terms in a scientific debate.

Pionk (to me) is borderline elite or at least has shown that he has that up side. Being able to effectively close gaps and keep up with with the best hockey player in the world should be an indicator that he is above average. Is it possible he is still average and he has some selective quirk that makes him play well again McDavid? Or that his advanced metrics are a mirage or not sustainable? I guess. But we have also seen linear progression in his game. No reason to think that doesn't continue.

Speaking of strawmen. Tell me when I said or even implied this:

So your plan is to give Pionk his long term contract, lose Copp for pennies on the dollar

I have never said that. My post to you is challenging the opinion that Pionk is "average". Its a spinoff argument from the one your were having with the other poster. I think he would be a top pairing guy in allot of Teams. Are there better defensemen out there than Pionk? For sure. But saying that doesnt necessarily mean he is simply "average" I also think we can find a way to keep both. If need be , we can trade Copp for a reasonable return. Not saying that's what will happen ofcourrse.

I can't reply to this for unknown reasons. I suggest if you use quotes you actually quote what i said and at least try and make an attempt to discuss the sentiment of my post.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

A one year deal is the only thing that makes sense for the Jets to get the cheapest contract. Trading him because you dont want to lose him after that year has no logic. Trade him just to have to replace him at the deadline for more assets than we get for him now and more likely get a worse replacement? This is what win now looks like. You lose players for nothing sometimes or maybe the stars align and he resigns. The goal is to ice the best team NOW not 5 years from now.

I agree it looks like keeping him as an own rental. Planning on then moving him at the TD makes no sense. We will be in the PO, if not contending.

If that was the plan all along though, I think it would have been better to keep Appleton. Save ~3 mil in cap space that could be well used elsewhere and also have several more years of the player. Move KVes into Copp's 3LW spot.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Everyone is obsessed with long term contacts. Jets will go short term on Copp and Pionk. RFA years only. This is what playing to win now looks like. The Jets don't look like they are just looking to hold on to players. You risk the future for today. They look like they want to make the best roster they can. This is what good teams do. They turnnover middle 6 forwards and middle pair defensemen.

Risking the future is one thing. Just tossing it away is another.

Copp as an own rental may be necessary. He has been angling for UFA for a while. We have no reason to believe it is necessary with Pionk. He may play 2nd pair but right now he is still our best Dman. You don't walk your best Dman straight to UFA.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If they’re only signed for the remainder of their RFA years they would both get one year contracts and become UFAs at the end of the season.

We get 2 more years of Pionk before he can become a UFA.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

One year for both, I believe.

Pionk's B'day is July 29. He doesn't turn 27 until after the July 1 deadline. It is just like Copp not being a UFA already this year because of his July 8th B'day.

1 year of Copp, 2 years of Pionk.

 

[raideralex99]

Interesting reading on everyone opinions but in the end only a few people know what is actually happening.
One player is holding out or they are waiting for that date to fit everyone under the salary cap.
If Copp did not want to sign here I'm sure Chevy would have left him unprotected or maybe Seattle would have taken DeMelo if Appleton was protected ... we don't know only Chevy & the Jets know.
Maybe Pionk does not want to be here?
Lots of theories but we will find out soon enough ... only a few weeks to go.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The point is to win the Cup not be better than average. The lower cap hit NOW while we have Helle, Scheif, Ehlers, Connor all on good deals. We need to take advantage of the best of what's left in Wheeler at his cap hit. 3 years from now This is all gone and paying Pionk mean nothing anyway.

Yeah, no. Scheifele and Helle aren't going to turn into pumpkins. We will still have Ehlers and Connor. Add to them Perfetti, Lucius and Chibrikov. PLD will be an old man of 26.

On D we could have Morrissey, Pionk, Stanley, Heinola, Samberg, Chisholm.

We do not have the situation of a 3 year window and then start over from scratch.

Do you think we could sign Pionk for 2 more years at 3 mil? The AAV between a 2 year contract and a 6 year contract is not going to be all that big a difference.

 

[surixon]

Yeah, no. Scheifele and Helle aren't going to turn into pumpkins. We will still have Ehlers and Connor. Add to them Perfetti, Lucius and Chibrikov. PLD will be an old man of 26.

On D we could have Morrissey, Pionk, Stanley, Heinola, Samberg, Chisholm.

We do not have the situation of a 3 year window and then start over from scratch.

Do you think we could sign Pionk for 2 more years at 3 mil? The AAV between a 2 year contract and a 6 year contract is not going to be all that big a difference.

Agreed, we have the young forwards to replace our aging vets in Wheeler and Stastny and we have the young defense to round out our team.

We can extend our window or retool a bit if need be.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I have my doubts that @garret9 ever posted such things.

Taken completely out of context, he probably did. Most of them at least, at one time or another. But context counts.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This doesn't seem sincere . Funny how one poster throws out a straw man and other lemming follow.

Being the Jets best defensemen is like being the tallest of Snow White's friends.

So your plan is to give Pionk his long term contract, lose Copp for pennies on the dollar because that's what will happen right now with most teams with little cap space, to just replace Copp at the deadline with a lesser player with an overpay because that's how the deadline works.

Who said anything about losing Copp for pennies on the dollar? Talk about your strawmen!

The plan appears to be to sign him for 1 year, probably on an arbitration award. And then let him walk after the season. So no need to replace him at the deadline either.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The Kyrou deal is a good comp for Chevy 2.8M and he scored 35 points last year.

Not really. He is 4 years younger than Copp and still has 4 years of RFA left. He just signed his 2nd contract, a bridge that leaves him still 2 years short of UFA. He has less than a quarter of Copps NHL experience. Is Kyrou also outstanding defensively and able to play C very well?

It takes more than 1 season of comparable scoring to make a contract comp.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

If they’re only signed for the remainder of their RFA years they would both get one year contracts and become UFAs at the end of the season.

Do we have one or two years before Copp and Pionk are UFA?

One year for both, I believe.

"A player becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA) if their current contract ends after either 7 Accrued Seasons or they are 27 or older as of June 30. An Accrued Season is defined as a year in which a skater is on an NHL roster for at least 40 games (30 games for Goalies)."

Only Copp is in his last RFA year. He's thus far played 6 seasons & turned 27 last month.Had he been born 8 days earlier he'd already be a UFA.

On the other hand, Pionk's just turned 26 a few days ago. His birthday is July 29th, 1995. He'll still be 26 as of June 3oth next year and has only four pro seasons under his belt

He's an RFA for the next two seasons.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agreed, we have the young forwards to replace our aging vets in Wheeler and Stastny and we have the young defense to round out our team.

We can extend our window or retool a bit if need be.

I'm sure a bit of retooling will be required. Chevy is not going to just stand pat for the next 3 years. Some of the older players will probably be traded before their contracts run out. It is possible that some of the younger ones get traded too, if the right deals come along. And then there will be 3 more drafts.

We don't necessarily have the team we will ice in 4 years time, but we have the assets to assemble it.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Interesting reading on everyone opinions but in the end only a few people know what is actually happening.
One player is holding out or they are waiting for that date to fit everyone under the salary cap.
If Copp did not want to sign here I'm sure Chevy would have left him unprotected or maybe Seattle would have taken DeMelo if Appleton was protected ... we don't know only Chevy & the Jets know.
Maybe Pionk does not want to be here?
Lots of theories but we will find out soon enough ... only a few weeks to go.

All quite true.

But we have our phony baloney opinions - and we will defend them to the death, against all comers.

 

[surixon]

I'm sure a bit of retooling will be required. Chevy is not going to just stand pat for the next 3 years. Some of the older players will probably be traded before their contracts run out. It is possible that some of the younger ones get traded too, if the right deals come along. And then there will be 3 more drafts.

We don't necessarily have the team we will ice in 4 years time, but we have the assets to assemble it.

Yup I would expect some players will be dealt over that time depending on what their future contract demands are and where their games are at and what holes we have.