Speculation: Copp's future?

[kylbaz]

Garrett is just like an other HFBoards poster here. He is knowledgeable, but like most, has been wrong as well as right over time. He often pumped up Dano, Petan, and Niku, while constantly bemoaning Stanley, and in particular Tanev. He just happens to be more vocal then many of us. Nothing wrong with that.


As for cap space, I have a bad feeling Copp will be the odd man out. Stanley is still regarded as a project in the work, and no way the Jets will want to lose Pionk.

Who would have thought basing absolutely everything on fancy stats and talking down to others that disagreed, while probably never playing much (if any) competitive hockey before, wouldn't work out?

 

[buyinnow]

anyone who thinks Copp isn't going to arbitration and then gone in UFA is crazy.

we can't afford pay him his ask(he's not worth it).
so we pitch a team friendly value, he asks for arbitration, he now will have gone to arbitartion twice. He wasn't happy last time about it, he isn't happy about the Jet's value for him, and he will take the arbitration contract for 1 year become UFA and walk. book it.


I'm a biiig chevy fan......but he screwed the pooch on this. He should have signed Copp and shipped him off to Seattle. Soon, Chevy's failure to protect Apples will really bite our asses.

cant force Copp to sign. The allure of being an ufa is strong. highest bidder, live where you want.

 

[RRenegade]

There can be only one! (Highlander)

There is not enough money in the cookie jar to pay both Pionk & Copp on long term contracts.
Arbitration awards would likely be around 4.5-5M for Pionk and 3-3.5M for Copp.
If the Jets can sign Copp for around 4M long term & give Pionk a 1 year contract, they get another chance to negotiate a long term contract next year.

The problem next year though, Dubois (7-8M?) is up for a new contract & Statsny is the only bigger contract coming due so someone from the core likely need to go next year to keep the rest of the band together.

Maybe Chevy should have protected Appleton rather than Copp?

 

[surixon]

There can be only one! (Highlander)

There is not enough money in the cookie jar to pay both Pionk & Copp on long term contracts.
Arbitration awards would likely be around 4.5-5M for Pionk and 3-3.5M for Copp.
If the Jets can sign Copp for around 4M long term & give Pionk a 1 year contract, they get another chance to negotiate a long term contract next year.

The problem next year though, Dubois (7-8M?) is up for a new contract & Statsny is the only bigger contract coming due so someone from the core likely need to go next year to keep the rest of the band together.

Maybe Chevy should have protected Appleton rather than Copp?

I assume next summer Stastny is replaced with Perfetti on his ELC and DeMelo is moved and Heinola replaced him on an elc. That should free up 4 plus million. That should be enough to give Dubois a raise. I don't thinkbwe have any other players of note to reup that year.

 

[ML16]

Hi fellow hockey enthusiasts! I humbly think that Montreal and Winnipeg could be dancing partners in a mutually beneficial trade centered around Copp and Lekhonen+.

The way I see it, Lekhonen would be a more cost-efficient 3rd liner (LW/RW; 2.3M AAV; still RFA next offseason) than Copp (who’ll likely command a contract around 4-4.5M AAV) and would thus provide cap flexibility to the Jets, especially at the rate PMD are signing nowadays (Pionk’s renewal talks, ie.) A mid-round pick could also go to Winnipeg as incentive to compensate the fact that Copp can play C.

From Montreal’s point of view, obtaining Copp and locking him up around 4-4.5M AAV would be an optimal scenario to share middle-6 C duties with Kotkaniemi ; and trading Lekhonen seems inevitable with the overflow of top-9 wingers on the Habs’ roster as it stands.

Win-win?

 

[jgimp]

Hi fellow hockey enthusiasts! I humbly think that Montreal and Winnipeg could be dancing partners in a mutually beneficial trade centered around Copp and Lekhonen+.

The way I see it, Lekhonen would be a more cost-efficient 3rd liner (LW/RW; 2.3M AAV; still RFA next offseason) than Copp (who’ll likely command a contract around 4-4.5M AAV) and would thus provide cap flexibility to the Jets, especially at the rate PMD are signing nowadays (Pionk’s renewal talks, ie.) A mid-round pick could also go to Winnipeg as incentive to compensate the fact that Copp can play C.

From Montreal’s point of view, obtaining Copp and locking him up around 4-4.5M AAV would be an optimal scenario to share middle-6 C duties with Kotkaniemi ; and trading Lekhonen seems inevitable with the overflow of top-9 wingers on the Habs’ roster as it stands.

Win-win?

I could see something like that happening if a deal can’t be struck with Copp prior to arbitration.

 

[Huffer]

I'd have no interest in trading Copp for Lekhonen. Lekhonen isn't anything special, and if the Jets are trading Copp I'd rather get picks and/or a prospect. The Jets could sign a player for less than Lekhonen's cap hit that could do the same or better job. The Habs just did with Perreault.

Or we could add to the return from Copp and get a younger player that can play that has upside that is making less than what Copp is looking for. Maybe from a team looking to be better now.

 

[Jetsfan79]

Hi fellow hockey enthusiasts! I humbly think that Montreal and Winnipeg could be dancing partners in a mutually beneficial trade centered around Copp and Lekhonen+.

The way I see it, Lekhonen would be a more cost-efficient 3rd liner (LW/RW; 2.3M AAV; still RFA next offseason) than Copp (who’ll likely command a contract around 4-4.5M AAV) and would thus provide cap flexibility to the Jets, especially at the rate PMD are signing nowadays (Pionk’s renewal talks, ie.) A mid-round pick could also go to Winnipeg as incentive to compensate the fact that Copp can play C.

From Montreal’s point of view, obtaining Copp and locking him up around 4-4.5M AAV would be an optimal scenario to share middle-6 C duties with Kotkaniemi ; and trading Lekhonen seems inevitable with the overflow of top-9 wingers on the Habs’ roster as it stands.

Win-win?

I think the Jets sign him if they can get him at that range, especially if its close to 4.

4.6 and over is where the Jets say no IMO

There's some thought Copp wants 5

 

[Skidooboy]

Am I crazy thinking its 50/50?
or else he gets traded?

you might be crazy.

with this being his last RFA year, and he's already asked for Arbitration(twice now on back to back QO's) he's unsigned with almost no control....what are we trading him for and to whom?

I wouldn't trade you a final round pick for that...maybe at the trade deadline. if you need a depth Centre who can't score but keeps a clean house for a deep run..... but just to Have Copp on your roster? I don't see it.

 

[Skidooboy]

There can be only one! (Highlander)

There is not enough money in the cookie jar to pay both Pionk & Copp on long term contracts.
Arbitration awards would likely be around 4.5-5M for Pionk and 3-3.5M for Copp.
If the Jets can sign Copp for around 4M long term & give Pionk a 1 year contract, they get another chance to negotiate a long term contract next year.

The problem next year though, Dubois (7-8M?) is up for a new contract & Statsny is the only bigger contract coming due so someone from the core likely need to go next year to keep the rest of the band together.

Maybe Chevy should have protected Appleton rather than Copp?

1000x yes. Apples over Copp every single time....I don't know how we f***ed this up so bad.

 

[Tasteless Beaver]

Chevy wouldn't have protected Copp over Apples if he didn't think a reasonable, long-term deal could be struck. The Dillon and Schmidt deals may have sharply reduced the money that Chevy thought was available, though, so he may be scrambling to find an updated solution with a player who is being reasonable.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Almost every player that goes thru arbitration ends up leaving the team that put him thru the process. And now the Jets might be putting Copp thru it for a second time.

I want Copp to stay here long term, but the price has to fit within the team budget and makeup. If he can't , then move him if the return is good, otherwise he plays for 1 more year.

Not to disagree - except the team is not "putting him through that process". He is doing it to himself as much as the team is doing it to him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Copp filed for arbitration. Pionk did, too.

They pretty much all do, if they are eligible and if they haven't signed by the filing date. Filing for arb is a formality. Going through with it is another thing altogether.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Am I crazy thinking its 50/50?
or else he gets traded?

Not if you are saying 50/50 traded or UFA.
If you are saying 50/50 stay or go - yeah, you're crazy. jk

I think the chances of him staying more than this season are pretty slim, and certainly not if he has to actually go through arb again. That drops them to zero.

 

[FonRiesen]

Who would have thought basing absolutely everything on fancy stats and talking down to others that disagreed, while probably never playing much (if any) competitive hockey before, wouldn't work out?

He's been quite patient with others who have disagreed with him over the many years of posting, and consistently demonstrates far more class and thoughtfulness than your post (which is entirely composed of logical fallacies). Most of us have learned a lot from him because we're willing to see that there's always room to continually improve our evaluations (and he's always been a proponent of ADDING advanced stats to other metrics - rebalancing our priorities in decision-making - but not using them "exclusively").


Back to Copp, he's in a tough tier - above-average 3rd liner; an intelligent guy that works hard, but can't crack our 2nd line when we're fully healthy. To his credit, he performed well with Ehlers last season, and had they been together the whole year, his point totals would likely have been even higher (IIRC that line was near the top of the league in scoring for the few weeks they were together). I'm sure his agent is going to use that to push for a higher salary (when he was shifted back down to Lowry's line his point totals plummeted).

I'd love to see him as a Jet, but Chevy will have to work magic to get him signed under the cap. We have enough good forwards that Chevy probably won't overpay him...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Who would have thought basing absolutely everything on fancy stats and talking down to others that disagreed, while probably never playing much (if any) competitive hockey before, wouldn't work out?

None of those things apply to Garrett.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the Jets sign him if they can get him at that range, especially if its close to 4.

4.6 and over is where the Jets say no IMO

There's some thought Copp wants 5

Copp may sign for 4.5 - but not in Wpg. It is clearly not just as simple as reaching agreement on AAV.

 

[Jetsfan79]

Copp may sign for 4.5 - but not in Wpg. It is clearly not just as simple as reaching agreement on AAV.

What makes me think he may sign here for the right price is what Maurice said. (Paraphrasing) "In all the years I have coached here, this is the first time we reached a point where every player is committed to being a Winnipeg Jet "

Copp also said things have changed since the 1st arbitration during his media exit interview. To me that tells me Copp likes it here and it's mainly about contract. A more telling sign that he was set to move on would of been to skip the exit interview altogether like Matty P did..

 

[KingBogo]

What makes me think he may sign here for the right price is what Maurice said. (Paraphrasing) "In all the years I have coached here, this is the first time we reached a point where every player is committed to being a Winnipeg Jet "

Copp also said things have changed since the 1st arbitration during his media exit interview. To me that tells me Copp likes it here and it's mainly about contract. A more telling sign that he was set to move on would of been to skip the exit interview altogether like Matty P did..

I like hearing that, but for us to sign both Copp and Pionk they will both need to leave a little money on the table.

 

[surixon]

I like hearing that, but for us to sign both Copp and Pionk they will both need to leave a little money on the table.

Yup and I don't see that happening with Copp and Overcharge.

 

[KingBogo]

Yup and I don't see that happening with Copp and Overcharge.

Yeah, I've been playing around on capfriendly trying to build the team, and the only way we squeeze both Copp and a long term Pionk onto the team, is Copp is willing to sign a 1-2 year deal somewhere around $3.75 M, but that leaves us wide open to bonus overages and extra injury costs. We also have to run with mostly a 22 man roster.

 

[surixon]

Yeah, I've been playing around on capfriendly trying to build the team, and the only way we squeeze both Copp and a long term Pionk onto the team, is Copp is willing to sign a 1-2 year deal somewhere around $3.75 M, but that leaves us wide open to bonus overages and extra injury costs. We also have to run with mostly a 22 man roster.

Yeah I just don't see it working unless they move out DeMelo.

 

[KingBogo]

Yeah I just don't see it working unless they move out DeMelo.

I don't think they will want to do that yet. IMO you ideally get Copp to agree to a 1-2 year deal and go with your best possible team and then reassess next off season.

 

[Skidooboy]

What makes me think he may sign here for the right price is what Maurice said. (Paraphrasing) "In all the years I have coached here, this is the first time we reached a point where every player is committed to being a Winnipeg Jet "

Copp also said things have changed since the 1st arbitration during his media exit interview. To me that tells me Copp likes it here and it's mainly about contract. A more telling sign that he was set to move on would of been to skip the exit interview altogether like Matty P did..

What? That makes zero sense.
Marty P knew he was done here.
The Jets would have told him there was no more room for him at the inn. Why go to the exit interview.

Copp HAD to go to the interview because Chevy is very much still his boss and has a fair bit of control to exert still in what Andrew’s next steps in hockey might be.
As an RFA he could get shipped off to Buffalo or some other tire fire, have a bad year and fall out off the radar, end up fighting for scraps.
I’ve seen it happen before with guys I compare to Copp’s level.

so Copp has to make nice to the media and say all the right things

 

[Skidooboy]

Also.

2 year contracts?



anyone thinking Copp is going to delay his UFA contract a year?…… signing a Jets friendly 3.75?

Those are binding arbitration type contracts….. which means we lose Copp for nothing at the end of the season.


And no Apples in the basket to fill the spot.