Connor McDavid Point Projections

[McGoMcD]

Yeah but he's also a generational talent. This is no Taylor Hall, RNH or Steven Stamkos rookie season. This is Connor McDavid who scored at almost the same Point Per Game rate than Crosby, but in an arguably tougher junior league.

If people want to keep their expectations low, hey, I can see how that's better. Then you would be a lot happier if he exceeded that.

Ya, I think it is sort of funny. Some people have this attitude that he is young and we should't expect that much. So they are not really doing a real projection they are just setting the bar low so they won't be disapointed. bottom line if you actually run the numbers. Look at how players that scored at his level did in the NHL, you would come up with 70-80 or more. The reason it is that low is becuase you have to assume the NHL will be low scoring again. Bottom line any honest projection puts him at about 6-10 in the NHL in points.

 

[Bear91]

Top 15 in NHL scoring

 

[PaPaDee]

Between 55-60 points and will finish 3rd for points on the team.

 

[Burtch66]

I have no idea what the actual numbers will be, but if you truly believe all the scouts and "experts" when they say he's a generational talent then you would have to believe he will be in the top 10 in the league in scoring. If he is truly that gifted he has no excuse not to be there. I for one am a believer but only time will tell.

 

[5 14 6 1]

I'll be happy I he breaks 50! Wouldn't be shocked to see 65 though.

 

[McJadeddog]

If he got 70 points as our second line center I would be absolutely thrilled. Just seems terribly unrealistic.

I have a hard time seeing him getting even 60.

How have you guys not had your expectations beat out of you yet?

I agree, I'll be thrilled with anything over 50 to be honest. If he hits 60+ I'll be over the moon. 60+ would be a ridiculously good year as the second line center. He isn't going to get crazy PP time, and will only be getting around 16 minutes per game. I fully expect Eichel to score more than McDavid next year, simply because of the situation Eichel is in vs. McDavid.

 

[McOilers97]

I agree, I'll be thrilled with anything over 50 to be honest. If he hits 60+ I'll be over the moon. 60+ would be a ridiculously good year as the second line center. He isn't going to get crazy PP time, and will only be getting around 16 minutes per game. I fully expect Eichel to score more than McDavid next year, simply because of the situation Eichel is in vs. McDavid.

Why do you think he isn't going to get much PP time? If he earns the minutes I'd be shocked if they don't give them to him.

 

[4th_Liner]

his ppg will be high, his total won't, i worry about him getting rocked hard early and often and end up missing many games.

 

[McJadeddog]

Why do you think he isn't going to get much PP time? If he earns the minutes I'd be shocked if they don't give them to him.

He isn't the only belle at the ball. He's gonna be sharing PP time with hall, rnh, Eberle, etc

 

[Zaddy]

I'd be happy with 60+ but considering how special this kid is he should be able to get 70+ really. If MacKinnon can get 63 points then Connor should too. It's not like he's going to have crap linemates or anything. He'll have just as good, if not better, linemates than MacK had. If he finds chemistry early with Hall it's not impossible he gets 80+ honestly.

 

[ohheyhemsky]

He isn't the only belle at the ball. He's gonna be sharing PP time with hall, rnh, Eberle, etc

 

[McJadeddog]

lol... yeah, i think we've all had a moment or two like this when dreaming about our PP next season

these moments occur for me when i think about our 3v3 OT roster.... mcdavid and hall on the same 3v3 line is reDONK

 

[Gord]

Pretty simple, how many points do you think Connor will get in his rookie season should he stay healthy the whole year?

I'll be that guy to call 95 points, easily being the highest scoring rookie since Crosby.

Mods, I searched to try and find a thread like this but couldn't find one. Should there be, close accordingly. Thanks.

I'm with the majority, that says 70-79. I hope for more, but I think he can get 70.

 

[nerdman60]

I think he's locked to get 80+ in his rookie season. If Johnny Gaudreau and Mark Stone can get 65+, this generational phenom should get atleast 80.

 

[PaPaDee]

I think he's locked to get 80+ in his rookie season. If Johnny Gaudreau and Mark Stone can get 65+, this generational phenom should get atleast 80.

Stone and Gaudreau were also several years older than McDavid in their rookie campaigns.

 

[lakai17]

30+ goals.

79 points.

 

[underdog]

If a generational player can't muster point per game, I'd be kinda disappointed.

 

[McGoMcD]

If a generational player can't muster point per game, I'd be kinda disappointed.

Ya, but depends what era. Last year like 5 players had more than a ppg.

 

[The Batman]

I wouldn't blink twice if McDavid puts up 80+ points, especially with the talent he will be surrounded with and if he gets a ton of time on the powerplay

 

[LTIR]

If a generational player can't muster point per game, I'd be kinda disappointed.

McKinnon had 63pts -24G - 39A as a rookie and it was a damn good season for him.
McDavid isnt going to be running the show in EDM and will be a secondary scorer for the first little while. I will be happy as long he outscores McKinnon the rookie.

 

[Mowzie]

Realistically I expect him to be a 25-25 guy that gets lots of PP time but struggles a bit at evens.

That being said noone should be surprised if he comes out and has a 70+ point season either.

 

[birchy]

I voted 60-69.. but the more I think about it, the more I think he'll be up at the 80 point range. He's not your average #1 pick...

 

[McShogun99]

Here's a list of the rookie seasons of other generational talents and where they finished in the points race.

Gretzky- 137 points- tied for 1st
Lemieux- 100 points- tied for 13th
Lindros - 75 points- 67th
Crosby- 102 points - 6th

Lemieux missed about 10 games and Lindros missed about 20 games. If Mcdavid stays healthy then he should be expected to be top 20 in league scoring. Based on last years point totals, that would mean between 69 to 87 points.

 

[Spawn]

Voted 60-69. I wouldn't be surprised if he got more. I'd be a little surprised if he got less.

 

[Narnia]

I expect him to be better than RNH was at his age, because, quite frankly he's a lot better than RNH was at his age, not to mention the team he'll be playing on appears to be better.

In RNH's first year: G: 18, A: 34, P: 52

I'd be happy with G: 25-30, A: 40-50 P: 65-80
as a first year from McDavid if he stays healthy and plays between 65-82 games. I think he'll definitely have more assists then he will have goals.

RNH also missed 20 games and was runner up for the Calder.