Player Discussion: Connor Hellebuyck

[White Out 902]

5 games is an awful sample size.

Give me his last 100, and then we can discuss.

It is. But I was told he was turning it around in December. I'm rebutting that statememt.

 

[Flair Hay]

Oh good so after breaking through and winning two playoff series for the first time in our city ever... we have fans turning on him already. Because he's playing okay in the regular season, in a year where we are coasting to 1st place.

The guy had a Vezina nominee last year and hes already getting the Pavelec blogger treatment lol

 

[jepjepjoo]

5 games is an awful sample size.

Give me his last 100, and then we can discuss.

last 150 is even better, right?

5on5
92.18sv% 92.52xsv% 35th in dsv% (3000min minimum)

All situations is a bit better, but there are still 23 goalies who have better dsv% than him (3000min minimum)

 

[Maukkis]

last 150 is even better, right?

5on5
92.18sv% 92.52xsv% 35th in dsv% (3000min minimum)

All situations is a bit better, but there are still 23 goalies who have better dsv% than him (3000min minimum)

An interesting question. SV% balances out at a certain point, which I recall being 3000 shots. In Helle's last 97 starts, he has faced 2915 shots against - you'd think he hits 3000 by game #100. So basically, you could look at a goalie's last 3000 so as to account for the recent performance a bit better. But I don't think there's anything wrong with 150 games either.

From 2017-18 onwards, he has a .924 at 5v5. That is also his career SV%. (NB: those 97 starts I mentioned is what he has between 2017-19 so far)

That, then, begs the question: are people seriously thinking that the .909 Hellebuyck they see now is what they will see for the next five years?

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

These losses weren't that bad when you think about it, he only REALLY let in two goals this game and three in the last one, plus they pretty much weren't his fault, it was the D.

 

[AlphaLackey]

It is. But I was told he was turning it around in December. I'm rebutting that statememt.

Your rebuttal is in error. See which:

A> he had played 9 starts this month before this game, so "half the month" could just as easily been 4 games or 5 games. If you divide the month by days, "the second half of December" was actually his last 4 games (where he was .913 over them).

B> Now that he has played ten games, "the second half of the month of December" (i.e. the sample size that was deemed relevant 12 hours ago) he is .913, above average for goalies and above average for starters.

C> In the month of December, he is now .9194 in ten starts, down a hair from .9196 in the first nine starts in December. A marked improvement over the .905 he was earlier in the year. Of note, Brossoit has 10 starts and has been anointed as a legitimate .939 wunderkind in hiding.

 

[AlphaLackey]

These losses weren't that bad when you think about it, he only REALLY let in two goals this game and three in the last one, plus they pretty much weren't his fault, it was the D.

Going by the baseball fielding standard, neither of Hellebuyck's goals would be an "error".

 

[objectiveposter]

Buff out for a while.... huge blow... gonna need helle to step up and start playing like the vezina candidate he was last year. His stats might take a hit with scrubs on defense playing more minutes... just step up, be a leader, make the big saves when the team needs it most and get Ws.
All of the Jets core players (scheif, ehlers,laine, connor,little,wheeler,trouba,morrisey,buff) have all met/exceeded expectations so far this season with great stretches where they played very well. Helle is the only core player that has played below expectations so far compared to last season. Its time for him to step up.
Its no even about stats right now. Its about stepping up when your team needs it most with a major injury on the blue line.

 

[Daximus]

I think a lot of people are expected Helle to be our Freddy Andersen or John Gibson but the reality is he's just not those goalies. He's not going to post insane stats while getting peppered with high danger shots. There's only so many big saves he can make. I mean he stopped four 2 on 1's and 2 breakaways completely by himself and we want more?

Helle is a positional goalie and as such our system needs to reflect that, exactly like it did last year. Helle faced the 3rd most shots last year but the Jets did a phenomenal job at keeping those shots to the perimeter. This year he's faced the 7th most shots but he's getting peppered on 2-on-1's, breakaways and high danger slot shots. If we want to win games we have to make sure that doesn't happen. Of course actually generating something the other way is a huge requirement. 27 shots from the perimeter is not enough to win games when the other team is getting clean shots from our slot.

 

[White Out 902]

is he being peppered with high danger chances? surely there's a metric we can view to compare.

 

[Daximus]

is he being peppered with high danger chances? surely there's a metric we can view to compare.

Everyone is. This season has been nuts in terms of goal scoring. Scoring and PP% are way up over last year at this time which means SV% is going to be down. Factor in that 30 players are on pace for 40+ goals right now almost at the halfway mark. which is way up over last year. Hell we have 17 players on pace for over 100 points and with both of those cases more could join them. I don't understand how people can't factor that in while evaluating goaltender performances this year.

The Jets sit 11th in High danger corsi against and 22nd in high danger corsi for.
We are not getting to better shooting places than most of our opponents and we are letting them get to the spots easier. Interestingly enough Tampa has a much worse high danger sv% than we do, in fact the worst in the league. But they are among the best team in the league at getting off high danger shots themselves. Effectively they are out chancing their opponents where it counts.

 

[White Out 902]

The Jets sit 11th in High danger corsi against and 22nd in high danger corsi for.
We are not getting to better shooting places than most of our opponents and we are letting them get to the spots easier. Interestingly enough Tampa has a much worse high danger sv% than we do, in fact the worst in the league. But they are among the best team in the league at getting off high danger shots themselves. Effectively they are out chancing their opponents where it counts.

If our Corsi against for high danger is 11, doesn't that mean we're doing .. fine? Not great, but, nearly top 3rd?

 

[Daximus]

If our Corsi against for high danger is 11, doesn't that mean we're doing .. fine? Not great, but, nearly top 3rd?

Yeah I read it the wrong way we are 11th lowest in HDCA with a sv% that is middle of the pack. So in those metrics we are basically league average. Helle has had some terrible performances this year but I can't concede last night being one of them. He put the team in a much better position to succeed but they did f*** all to help him out.

 

[White Out 902]

Yeah I read it the wrong way we are 11th lowest in HDCA with a sv% that is middle of the pack. So in those metrics we are basically league average. Helle has had some terrible performances this year but I can't concede last night being one of them. He put the team in a much better position to succeed but they did **** all to help him out.

Last night I actually said Helley was a lone bright spot for a quality start. But if you take those extra 5 or 6 goals that a 915 or so save % gives you and apply it to a couple of his bad nights, we may be 1st in league. It's not about that though for me, it's about having confidence in a guy who's likely our starter better or worse for 2 years minimum.

 

[Daximus]

Last night I actually said Helley was a lone bright spot for a quality start. But if you take those extra 5 or 6 goals that a 915 or so save % gives you and apply it to a couple of his bad nights, we may be 1st in league. It's not about that though for me, it's about having confidence in a guy who's likely our starter better or worse for 2 years minimum.

There were a lot of issues with our team last night. Wheeler, Myers and Trouba played like crap. Morrissey looked like he was dragging around a piano on his ass. Laine was useless in our zone for much of the night and Rosie was making a lot of bonehead plays. To top it off our D were pinching at the wrong time pretty much every chance they got. All in all that was an abysmal effort and execution of our game plan.

 

[Maukkis]

is he being peppered with high danger chances? surely there's a metric we can view to compare.

-1% means 'very slightly better than league average'. There is one stark contrast out there: this year's results compared to last year's. (for those who don't know: blue indicates less shots being taken than the league average, so the more blue there is, the better your defense is)

The Ducks, who have accepted their god-given duty to hang Gibson out to dry, have mustered something like this:

So: our results could be much worse. They are also a lot worse than what we saw last year.

 

[Daximus]

-1% means 'very slightly better than league average'. There is one stark contrast out there: this year's results compared to last year's. (for those who don't know: blue indicates less shots being taken than the league average, so the more blue there is, the better your defense is)

The Ducks, who have accepted their god-given duty to hang Gibson out to dry, have mustered something like this:

So: our results could be much worse. They are also a lot worse than what we saw last year.

That's even crazier when you factor in that Gibson still has 15 wins and a .924 SV%.

He's playing out of his mind right now. He did something similar last year as well did he not?

 

[Maukkis]

That's even crazier when you factor in that Gibson still has 15 wins and a .924 SV%.

He's playing out of his mind right now. He did something similar last year as well did he not?

He should have been among the Vezina nominees - arguably even the winner - and not Hellebuyck.

 

[Daximus]

He should have been among the Vezina nominees - arguably even the winner - and not Hellebuyck.

Yeah the voters don't ever look under the hood with the Vezina. It often goes to a goalie who gets a lot more help then many believe. I don't even think Rinne should have won or been a nominee. My top 4 would have been Andersen, Gibson, Vasi and Helle in no particular order with Vasi winning it in my eyes. Guy faced a massive workload, tied for most wins, 8 shutouts and still had a .920 to boot. When the offence dried up in Tampa late in the year he carried them more than any goalie carried any other team. This year it's Vasi and Gibson by a country mile, theyare pretty far ahead of the pack right now in term of workload and contribution.

 

[Maukkis]

Yeah the voters don't ever look under the hood with the Vezina. It often goes to a goalie who gets a lot more help then many believe. I don't even think Rinne should have won or been a nominee. My top 4 would have been Andersen, Gibson, Vasi and Helle in no particular order with Vasi winning it in my eyes. Guy faced a massive workload, tied for most wins, 8 shutouts and still had a .920 to boot. When the offence dried up in Tampa late in the year he carried them more than any goalie carried any other team. This year it's Vasi and Gibson by a country mile, theyare pretty far ahead of the pack right now in term of workload and contribution.

Correct. Gibson was sixth in the Vezina voting. Let that sink in.

Rinne's win was made of a good performance and a DiCaprio situation. Vasi was a reasonable finalist too. Don't know how Hellebuyck was rated over either of Gibson or Andersen, though. The defense he had in front of him was tremendous.

 

[Daximus]

Correct. Gibson was sixth in the Vezina voting. Let that sink in.

Rinne's win was made of a good performance and a DiCaprio situation. Vasi was a reasonable finalist too. Don't know how Hellebuyck was rated over either of Gibson or Andersen, though. The defense he had in front of him was tremendous.

Yeah legacy often plays a huge role in voting awards. We've seen it with the Smythe, Vezina, Selke and Norris in recent years.

 

[sipowicz]

Helly still at .909, and when does he get good again?

 

[Maukkis]

Helly still at .909, and when does he get good again?

.909 is literally league average.

 

[Board Bard]

.909 is literally league average.

Average isn't good. It's average.

 

[sipowicz]

Average isn't good. It's average.

Average isn’t getting you wins especially when your team isn’t scoring! Scoring by the Jets in November and half of December masked weak goaltending!