Player Discussion: Connor Hellebuyck

[Tommigun]

Next years Draft has a Danish goalie projected (by hockeyprospects) to go in the 1st round.

Mads Søgaard at eliteprospects.com

He is big, and moves well.

I don’t think goalies will go #1 ever again. Just too much risk.

Edit: Misread it as 1st overall.

 

[ps241]

Next years Draft has a Danish goalie projected (by hockeyprospects) to go in the 1st round.

Mads Søgaard at eliteprospects.com

He is big, and moves well.

and if we we draft Mads I will nickname him Peter Schmeichel

 

[White Out 902]

Connor's play lately making me feel a lot better about our chances to go on a run

 

[Eyeseeing]

Connor's play lately making me feel a lot better about our chances to go on a run

Man o man just a few games ago I was WTF is going on?
His glove was turrible and he was a rebound machine.
Relieved that it appears to be over

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Man o man just a few games ago I was WTF is going on?
His glove was turrible and he was a rebound machine.
Relieved that it appears to be over

I wouldn't assume that. He's done this before, he'll do it again. Cold, hot, cold, hot. Last year he had more hot than cold. This year? Remains to be seen. Hoodoo, man. I tell ya.

 

[Saidin]

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

View attachment 164769

Looks like a waveform of the warbling pop tarts they get to sing the anthems sometimes. You know, expected vs observed notes.

 

[NotCommitted]

That's a brutal looking graph. Don't show it to Helle. Last 3 games, the worst one is .963 though. Maybe he is heating up.

 

[Maukkis]

View attachment 164769

After freaking out about this, please focus on what has happened to the black line over time.

 

[White Out 902]

.909, 28 games in

Not good enough.

 

[Trinity]

Does Helle have a NTC/NMC in his contract?

 

[cbcwpg]

Does Helle have a NTC/NMC in his contract?

No. Just a standard 6 year deal.

2018-19 $7,000,000
2019-20 $6,000,000
2020-21 $4,500,000
2021-22 $7,500,000
2022-23 $4,500,000
2023-24 $7,500,000

Connor Hellebuyck - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

But he's NOT moving. More so when the Jets have no one to replace him with.

 

[GNP]

I think Helle's playing decently lately, but I'd love to see Brossoit in net a lot more, so we can see what he can do over the long term. I think the guy is fantastic, and he's the real deal, and should be given playing time. I think he will surprise people.

 

[AlphaLackey]

.909, 28 games in

Not good enough.

What is, then?

 

[White Out 902]

What is, then?

A number higher than 909.

 

[jokesondee]

What is, then?

I think the .915 and up mark in todays NHL is where you'd want to be as a goalie. Obviously there are exceptions to the rule. Antti Raanta was .930 last year in 47 games and barely above .500. Great goaltending cant always overcome garbage teams. Helle is close but needs to be better. The Jets are where they are in spite of his play and due to Brossoit.

 

[AlphaLackey]

A number higher than 909.

What is the lowest number you would consider a sufficient SV% that will make Hellebuyck's play acceptable in your eyes?

 

[AlphaLackey]

I think the .915 and up mark in todays NHL is where you'd want to be as a goalie. Obviously there are exceptions to the rule. Antti Raanta was .930 last year in 47 games and barely above .500. Great goaltending cant always overcome garbage teams. Helle is close but needs to be better. The Jets are where they are in spite of his play and due to Brossoit.

Okay, given that, Hellebuyck should have stopped 5.2 more goals than he has (0.6% * 867 shots). So the "should have" difference is about, but not quite, 2 points in the standings.

Holding Brossoit to the same standard, he's stopped about 8.2 more goals than he has (2.4% * 342 shots). Almost, but not quite, 3 points in the standings.

So it seems reasonable to conclude that even if we didn't benefit from the "due to Brossoit, in spite of Hellebuyck" factor, that this team is still 1st in the Central and 2nd/3rd in the West.

A visible factor to be sure, but not the nigh Apocalypse or anything.

And given Hellebuyck's horrible start and recent much improved play (.920 in December's 9 games), I'm anticipating this correcting itself as the season continues along.

 

[White Out 902]

Okay, given that, Hellebuyck should have stopped 5.2 more goals than he has (0.6% * 867 shots). So the "should have" difference is about, but not quite, 2 points in the standings.

Holding Brossoit to the same standard, he's stopped about 8.2 more goals than he has (2.4% * 342 shots). Almost, but not quite, 3 points in the standings.

So it seems reasonable to conclude that even if we didn't benefit from the "due to Brossoit, in spite of Hellebuyck" factor, that this team is still 1st in the Central and 2nd/3rd in the West.

A visible factor to be sure, but not the nigh Apocalypse or anything.

And given Hellebuyck's horrible start and recent much improved play (.920 in December's 9 games), I'm anticipating this correcting itself as the season continues along.

Yes if you were to even out the extra save percentage completely over each individual game but that's not really how things work is it in real life? If you bump up his save percentage in say three of his more egregious losses you can get him to 915 or above and produce 6 pts

 

[White Out 902]

And given Hellebuyck's horrible start and recent much improved play (.920 in December's 9 games), I'm anticipating this correcting itself as the season continues along.

I'm not going to crunch those numbers at 8am with a sick baby but a quick browse of nhl.com shows 3 of his last 5 starts are 900 or below. 5 is the number the site uses not my own decision. That hardly seems like it's improved

 

[AlphaLackey]

I'm not going to crunch those numbers at 8am with a sick baby but a quick browse of nhl.com shows 3 of his last 5 starts are 900 or below. 5 is the number the site uses not my own decision. That hardly seems like it's improved

Go take care of your baby, I got this

I'd be satisfied with his play continuing along these lines for the remainder of the year.

 

[White Out 902]

ok so, his start of December was good. His last half, the last 5 starts, 897.

So what?

 

[KingBogo]

Go take care of your baby, I got this

View attachment 169905

I'd be satisfied with his play continuing along these lines for the remainder of the year.

I don't think Helly is as far from last season's goalie as it gets made out to be. What my eye test tells me is that he has let in a greater amount of "soft" goals that are frustrating fans. But more and more he is looking like the Helly we have grown to expect. And very happy we have a back up to help shoulder a greater piece of the load with quality starts.

 

[AlphaLackey]

I don't think Helly is as far from last season's goalie as it gets made out to be. What my eye test tells me is that he has let in a greater amount of "soft" goals that are frustrating fans. But more and more he is looking like the Helly we have grown to expect. And very happy we have a back up to help shoulder a greater piece of the load with quality starts.

Yeah, especially October, there were several "WTF Bucky?!" moments. I mentioned this elsewhere but I'd like to see a human eye judge goaltending "errors" the same way fielding errors are judged. I think it would be a very useful stat, not without controversy I'm sure, but would give us more water-cooler banter; the search for deeper hockey statistical depth shouldn't ignore the fact that there should be some 'fun' stats that can give casual fans more to enjoy too.

But to your point, right now the difference between "old Bucky" and "current Bucky" is about 5-8 goals, depending on your expectation. I have no solid accounting but if you went through the games and counted about that many "WTF Bucky?" goals against, I'd expect the two totals to be very close.

 

[Maukkis]

ok so, his start of December was good. His last half, the last 5 starts, 897.

So what?

5 games is an awful sample size.

Give me his last 100, and then we can discuss.