Connor Hellebuyck

[rehf]

90% chance Helle starts in the minors. he shouldn't be playing as a back-up. he needs experience.
unless he KILLS it at camp, he's in the A

He's already proven to be a great AHL starter, in his rookie year...

I don't see he can't have a shot in the big league.

Although I do agree he will probably start with the Moose.

 

[KingBogo]

I say this all the time in discussions about when young players should crack the roster, but I'll say it again.

The best players should play, regardless of age. Why anyone would want to "over-ripen" prospects in a lower league if they are ready to play now is just absolutely beyond me. IMO, you should get to play in the NHL when you can earn a spot on merit, not before or after that.

Pre-conceived notions about players having to play X years in junior, then Y more years in the AHL are stupid (no offense ).

I think over rippen is used more to represent the idea a player is moved up to the next level after they have proved to have learned the pro game in both ends of the ice, and where they are clearly a better option then a current roster player. That is no one is gifted a spot but rather has to prove themselves. Emphasis is on internal competition. Players will continue to develop from the time they are drafted as 18 yo until they hit their prime some where in their mid 20's. It is a matter of when they are ready to make the jump from one level to the next. Very few junior age players can become effective NHLers. This is pretty much reserved for the most elite. Even a player as obviously as talented as Drouin was sent back to junior in draft +1 and in draft +2 is struggling to get a toe hold in the NHL. If the game was only played in the offensive zone he is ready, but he is still lacking on the defensive side. So much so he is mostly an observer these playoffs. And this is a prospect that was rated higher then any Jet prospect including Ehlers.

Most prospects as they finish their junior careers still lack parts of their game to be effective NHLers in both ends of the ice. The AHL is a big jump in quality from junior. Much bigger then most realize. For most prospects this in itself is a learning curve. It usually then takes some time at this level, to be ready for the NHL. Most of us are terrible evaluaters of when a player is ready since we focus on offense are are often totally oblivious to missed assignments and being in bad defensive position (the wrong side of the puck). The organization has made it very clear that most players will need time at the AHL before they will be moved up.

 

[garret9]

There is still a lot of evidence that most teams have lost their best years of goaltending due to being overly patient to a fault with goaltenders.

For a while the peak age for goalies to enter league was both at the same point they peak and also way after forwards and defense despite all 3 positions peaking in impact at the same point.

In other words... On average goalies start getting worse at the same point they enter the league because they develop earlier than the common GM and fan believes.

Interestingly though the NHL has slowly been adjusting for this and the average entry age has been dropping.

 

[KingBogo]

There is still a lot of evidence that most teams have lost their best years of goaltending due to being overly patient to a fault with goaltenders.

For a while the peak age for goalies to enter league was both at the same point they peak and also way after forwards and defense despite all 3 positions peaking in impact at the same point.

In other words... On average goalies start getting worse at the same point they enter the league because they develop earlier than the common GM and fan believes.

Interestingly though the NHL has slowly been adjusting for this and the average entry age has been dropping.

In terms of Helley I totally agree. It is not like he is a kid any more. He is the same age as Scheifele and Lowry and older the Trouba. He has spent time carrying the load in the A and proved himself against some of the world's best in the WC. IMO he has earned the opportunity to compete for an NHL spot.

 

[Aavco Cup]

There is still a lot of evidence that most teams have lost their best years of goaltending due to being overly patient to a fault with goaltenders.

For a while the peak age for goalies to enter league was both at the same point they peak and also way after forwards and defense despite all 3 positions peaking in impact at the same point.

In other words... On average goalies start getting worse at the same point they enter the league because they develop earlier than the common GM and fan believes.

Interestingly though the NHL has slowly been adjusting for this and the average entry age has been dropping.

I think the org is beginning to get it IMO. The contract realities can get in the way though sometimes. It will be interesting to watch in any event.

 

[Stej]

I think over rippen is used more to represent the idea a player is moved up to the next level after they have proved to have learned the pro game in both ends of the ice, and where they are clearly a better option then a current roster player. That is no one is gifted a spot but rather has to prove themselves. Emphasis is on internal competition. Players will continue to develop from the time they are drafted as 18 yo until they hit their prime some where in their mid 20's. It is a matter of when they are ready to make the jump from one level to the next. Very few junior age players can become effective NHLers. This is pretty much reserved for the most elite. Even a player as obviously as talented as Drouin was sent back to junior in draft +1 and in draft +2 is struggling to get a toe hold in the NHL. If the game was only played in the offensive zone he is ready, but he is still lacking on the defensive side. So much so he is mostly an observer these playoffs. And this is a prospect that was rated higher then any Jet prospect including Ehlers.

Most prospects as they finish their junior careers still lack parts of their game to be effective NHLers in both ends of the ice. The AHL is a big jump in quality from junior. Much bigger then most realize. For most prospects this in itself is a learning curve. It usually then takes some time at this level, to be ready for the NHL. Most of us are terrible evaluaters of when a player is ready since we focus on offense are are often totally oblivious to missed assignments and being in bad defensive position (the wrong side of the puck). The organization has made it very clear that most players will need time at the AHL before they will be moved up.

You are over-complicating it. If you become blind to age and let ability dictate the roster, everything else takes care of itself. By definition, the young player will have earned everything he gets.

 

[Mud Turtle]

I think that is a possibility, at least a faint one if they are really uncertain and want more data.



I am certainly no Pavelec fan or supporter. In fact I am inclined to move him by hook or by crook before the buyout deadline. But it is getting a bit over the top to keep talking about 'obsession' and 'blind faith'. He had lost the starting job last year until Hutch choked. To get it back he had to go on what was probably the best streak of his life. It would be pretty surprising for them to not bring him back after he had his career season. Not only was it a career season but it was comfortably above league average.

Don't lose any sleep worrying about Hutch being traded. A goalie who has not yet established himself as being NHL calibre even as a backup has 0 trade value. Hutch has not established himslef.

I didn't say anything about young players getting traded. Frankly I'm far more concerned about losing a player to waivers, OR, even more likely, our young guys being delayed entry into the NHL for a few years while waiting for the dead wood and big paycheque to be cleared out.
If keeping a goalie as your starter year after year despite the fact that his save percentage more often than not is lower than the designated backup, then I don't know what else could be classified as blind faith.
Did it get a bit better last year? Yes. Do we have a potential problem with two young goalies competing for a job coming up? Yes. But it's only a problem because management has allowed it to happen. Could it be solved with sending Pavelec down to the minors? You bet it could!

 

[KingBogo]

You are over-complicating it. If you become blind to age and let ability dictate the roster, everything else takes care of itself. By definition, the young player will have earned everything he gets.

And I would argue you are over simplifying it. Professional sports is a complicated business. Lots of guys with far less natural skills make it over more naturally skilled players all the time. To use another sport comparison. If you score better on every test in a football combine are you a better linebacker then a 7 year vet? Probably not because they will use their experience to optimize every situation as much as they can in their favour. Learning how to play as optimally as possible at the highest level is a steep learning curve best done at a competition level that doesn't overwhelm you. Even those that are naturally skilled need to learn how to play at the highest level against the most skilled and experienced players in the world.

 

[Mathmew Purrrr Oh]

You evaluate him in training camp and the pre-season using the same criteria laid out for Pavs and Hutch and you see how he performs against them.

The problem : what if they evaluated Hutch after training camp last season? he whiffed pretty good and they would have sent him down (or acquire a **** backup to mentor Hellebuyck ) Anyhoo point being Hutch stunk in camp and in his first start - then played 3 1/2 months of fantastic hockey. TC is too small of a sample to accurately judge anyone.

He could also light it up in camp then fall on his face.

I'm not sure where this post ended up but I'm tired and I'll shut up now

 

[garret9]

Goalies are voodoo..

Even the best of us are slightly guessing. Educated guesses is the best anyone can do haha.

 

[Stej]

And I would argue you are over simplifying it. Professional sports is a complicated business. Lots of guys with far less natural skills make it over more naturally skilled players all the time. To use another sport comparison. If you score better on every test in a football combine are you a better linebacker then a 7 year vet? Probably not because they will use their experience to optimize every situation as much as they can in their favour. Learning how to play as optimally as possible at the highest level is a steep learning curve best done at a competition level that doesn't overwhelm you. Even those that are naturally skilled need to learn how to play at the highest level against the most skilled and experienced players in the world.

My apologies for the poor choice of wording. By "ability", I didn't mean the guys that have the most "natural skill", as you put it; I meant the guys that make the team better, ALL FACTORS CONSIDERED (skill, smarts, effort, checking, maturity, off-ice, etc). My point is that it's up to the coaches to decide who makes the team better.

To bring this back on topic, it's my opinion that if the Jets coaches determine that the Jets are a better team with Hellebuyck on the roster over Pavs or Hutch, then it's stupid to send him back to the AHL. I know that's not necessarily how it works because age, contact status, and blind loyalty to old players often factor into the equation, but my point is that those things shouldn't factor in. At least not if you want to create a true meritocracy with full accountability and no double-standards.

The flip side is that I would never want a young player rushed just because he's a blue-chipper if he hasn't earned his spot. It goes both ways.

Feel free to disagree, but I don't need a lesson in how it works.

 

[Stej]

Goalies are voodoo..

Even the best of us are slightly guessing. Educated guesses is the best anyone can do haha.

And then there's this aspect, which I agree does make the whole process more difficult for coaches and probably causes them to go with the status quo more often than not when it comes to goalies.

 

[Board Bard]

The problem : what if they evaluated Hutch after training camp last season? he whiffed pretty good and they would have sent him down (or acquire a **** backup to mentor Hellebuyck ) Anyhoo point being Hutch stunk in camp and in his first start - then played 3 1/2 months of fantastic hockey. TC is too small of a sample to accurately judge anyone.

He could also light it up in camp then fall on his face.

That's Scheifele's job.

 

[Stej]

Anyway, anyone who reads this thread now knows my opinion on it. I'll spare you all the same monologue when we are talking about Petan, Ehlers, Morrissey, Copp, etc. in training camp because my opinion will likely be the same (although I do always save room to have my opinion changed).

 

[PhilJets]

I thought , it was already decided that HELLY is taking over the starting Job this coming season.

 

[EpicGingy]

I doubt he'll start in the NHL if he outperforms them there, so why should a sample that small decide that he's not NHL ready if they outperform him?

The problem : what if they evaluated Hutch after training camp last season? he whiffed pretty good and they would have sent him down (or acquire a **** backup to mentor Hellebuyck ) Anyhoo point being Hutch stunk in camp and in his first start - then played 3 1/2 months of fantastic hockey. TC is too small of a sample to accurately judge anyone.

He could also light it up in camp then fall on his face.

I'm not sure where this post ended up but I'm tired and I'll shut up now

I'm not suggesting that if Hellebuyck outperformed Hutch and Pavelec that he crown him starting goalie for the year, it's more about who gets the first shot. In a vacuum that's what should be done but the argument gets muddled when talking about waiver wire and which goalie gets sent down (which I'm 99% sure would be Hutch). If he falls flat on his face in training camp or the NHL that's unfortunate but he would just have to bide his time and wait for another chance.

I'm just saying reflecting on his AHL year as a whole, how dominant he was in the NCAA, and his stellar performance at the Worlds he has earned a shot. Is there an arbitrary amount of pro years he needs before he gets that? He's running out of pre-NHL statistical milestones.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm not suggesting that if Hellebuyck outperformed Hutch and Pavelec that he crown him starting goalie for the year, it's more about who gets the first shot. In a vacuum that's what should be done but the argument gets muddled when talking about waiver wire and which goalie gets sent down (which I'm 99% sure would be Hutch). If he falls flat on his face in training camp or the NHL that's unfortunate but he would just have to bide his time and wait for another chance.

I'm just saying reflecting on his AHL year as a whole, how dominant he was in the NCAA, and his stellar performance at the Worlds he has earned a shot. Is there an arbitrary amount of pro years he needs before he gets that? He's running out of pre-NHL statistical milestones.

AHL playoffs is about the only one left.

I expect the Jets to go with the status quo though. There is still a fight between Pav and Hutch for the starter's job with Pav holding it for the moment. If either falters the other takes over. If neither does well Helle will get a chance. If either gets injured he will get a chance. If both do well he will have to wait. If Hutch is doing poorly half way through the season do they expose Hutch to waivers and bring up Helle? I think they do. If he is not playing well his good half season last year is forgotten and he clears. Maybe he recovers his game with the Moose. This all assumes Helle is continuing to excel in the A of course.

 

[Jets4Life]

Hellebuyck's at it again:

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/sports/hockey/jets/Hellebuyck-drawing-all-kinds-of-attention-at-Jets-camp-311657041.html

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

Hellebuyck's at it again:

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/sports/hockey/jets/Hellebuyck-drawing-all-kinds-of-attention-at-Jets-camp-311657041.html

He has a calmness to him and a mature thought process that comes out in his interviews. Watched him closely yesterday, covers a lot of net quite efficiently.

Phillips also impressed me yesterday, slightly smaller than Helle, but still a large goalie. Made some nice saves yesterday.

Then you hear Comrie is also the real deal, that he hss the tools to be a very good starter in this league.

What an insane improvement in that position, from what we inherited 5 years ago.

 

[wpgsilver]

I was really impressed with Hockey-Goalie's interview a couple of days ago. Really handles himself like a pro.

 

[Whileee]

I watched the development camp on Friday and Saturday. Hellebuyck has terrific fundamentals. He's very agile and fluid in the crease (and huge). He's much more polished that Phillips in his basic skills. He probably still needs some work on his puck-handling, though he wouldn't have to improve much to be better than Hutch or Pavs.

 

[roccerfeller]

I'm sure if he's competitive enough he can earn a spot with the team this year and may be given every chance to do so

I wouldn't be adverse to him with another year of development in the A either though

 

[Bob E]

Barring injury, I would think Hellebuyck starts with the Moose due to waivers.

If he gets an opportunity with the Jets during the season as a call-up/injury replacement, I think he stakes his claim as the Jets goalie of the present and future.

 

[PhilJets]

Hellybuyck just need luck and play a stretch of 3 - 5 games and it will be game over for Pavelec.

I like Pavelec he is probably one of the coolest and nicest Jets. But better player needs to play.

GO JETS GO

 

[Jets4Life]

Interesting to note that in last night's blowout, Hellebuyck outperformed Hutchinson, as both goalies saw nearly identical playing time. Could anyone see Hutch being traded away at the end of the preseason, so that Helle is the designated backup.


It seems peculiar that Comrie has been assigned to the Moose, rather than the ECHL.