LeBrun: Connor Hellebuyck will not sign a new contract with Winnipeg

[Empoleon8771]

Hockey fans have really bad opinions on goalies. The "don't spend money on goalies" idea comes from cherrypicked examples of where it worked, when a majority of time it doesn't work.

Since 2009, half of the cup winning teams were paying their goalies more than the equivalent of $7 million today.

 

[Nocashstyle]

That seems to be a common sentiment.

Personally I think he'll sign for something like 8.5x5. Which obviously has some risk later on but is pretty good for adding such an impact piece.

But yeah I get it has risks and means someone else has to go.

A 5 year term definitely helps make that contract more attractive; however, the Devils would still be devoting close to 12 mil in cap space on goaltenders alone. With the expectation that Meier is getting something around 8.5, and still a few other RFA’s due for slight raises, they’d really be sacrificing any sort of cap flexibility. Not to mention I’m sure Mercer gets a hefty raise after this season.

Seeing as Helle is on the wrong side of 30, it just doesn’t really make sense. Way too much of a risk.

 

[Hisch13r]

A 5 year term definitely helps make that contract more attractive; however, the Devils would still be devoting close to 12 mil in cap space on goaltenders alone. With the expectation that Meier is getting something around 8.5, and still a few other RFA’s due for slight raises, they’d really be sacrificing any sort of cap flexibility. Not to mention I’m sure Mercer gets a hefty raise after this season.

Seeing as Helle is on the wrong side of 30, it just doesn’t really make sense. Way too much of a risk.

It wouldn't be 12. I imagine any Hellebuyck trade involves Vitek going the other way.

 

[Forge]

Hockey fans have really bad opinions on goalies. The "don't spend money on goalies" idea comes from cherrypicked examples of where it worked, when a majority of time it doesn't work.

Since 2009, half of the cup winning teams were paying their goalies more than the equivalent of $7 million today.

In fairness, I'm not so sure that hockey gms don't have really bad opinions on goalies

 

[NyQuil]

Since 2009, half of the cup winning teams were paying their goalies more than the equivalent of $7 million today.

So half of them weren't?

 

[pegcity]

I imagine the big pieces available would be Holtz and Gritsyuk as potential top 6ers and Casey as the RD

With Dubois being rumoured to LA for Vilardi, it seems the Jets would need to acquire a centre via the Hellebuyck trade. (Unless Byfield is coming back. Just seems more likely that it is Vilardi plus prospects)

I would assume a player with a cap hit would be going from NJ to WPG, to balance out salaries.

 

[Empoleon8771]

So half of them weren't?

If your argument was "you can win with cheap goalies", that's a valid thing to say. To say "you can't win with spending money on goalies" is demonstrably false.

 

[Hisch13r]

With Dubois being rumoured to LA for Vilardi, it seems the Jets would need to acquire a centre via the Hellebuyck trade. (Unless Byfield is coming back. Just seems more likely that it is Vilardi plus prospects)

I would assume a player with a cap hit would be going from NJ to WPG, to balance out salaries.

We've got no centers for you. Our center prospect depth is barer than bare. Salary wise I imagine it'd be Vitek going the other way.

 

[NyQuil]

To say "you can't win with spending money on goalies" is demonstrably false.

Who said that?

 

[Atoyot]

With Dubois being rumoured to LA for Vilardi, it seems the Jets would need to acquire a centre via the Hellebuyck trade. (Unless Byfield is coming back. Just seems more likely that it is Vilardi plus prospects)

I would assume a player with a cap hit would be going from NJ to WPG, to balance out salaries.

Vilardi was drafted as a center and was used as one on the Kings two years ago. Kings' fans is the belief that he's not a center at the NHL level or was it just a centre depth situation?

 

[Nocashstyle]

It wouldn't be 12. I imagine any Hellebuyck trade involves Vitek going the other way.

Even so. Then we have Schmid with just one more year on his ELC, and if this past season is any indication, he would certainly be due for a hefty raise as well.

Unless Fitz constantly just wanted to cycle through goalies on ELCs as #2 or 1b, devoting a material amount of cap space to goaltending would be unavoidable.

 

[My3Sons]

The Penguins roster is in a substantially better spot going forward than the Jets roster. Their core is miles better than the Jets core and they're sitting with a ton of cap space going forward.

Beyond that, not many teams can make Hellebuyck's contract demands work for the long run. I could definitely see Hellebuyck preferring to go to New Jersey or Buffalo since they're up and coming, but the fact that they're up and coming may mean that they can't afford him at his salary demands.

I would think Buffalo could easily fit in a big goalie contract but they likely want to see how things play out with Levi first.

 

[Hisch13r]

Even so. Then we have Schmid with just one more year on his ELC, and if this past season is any indication, he would certainly be due for a hefty raise as well.

Unless Fitz constantly just wanted to cycle through goalies on ELCs as #2 or 1b, devoting a material amount of cap space to goaltending would be unavoidable.

I'm not going to use last season as any indication for Schmid. The year before he was literally the worst goalie that played in the league. Goalies are chaotic in general and even more so for young goalies. I'd be more than fine with cycling through cheap goalies if I was able to get Hellebuyck at a reasonable deal but that's just not going to happen.

 

[pegcity]

Vilardi was drafted as a center and was used as one on the Kings two years ago. Kings' fans is the belief that he's not a center at the NHL level or was it just a centre depth situation?

I guess it's

Jets Get
Vilardi
Prospect/pick
Prospect/pick

Kings Get
Dubois



New Jersey Gets
Helleybuck

Jets get
Vanecek
Roster Player (forward)
Maybe Prospect/pick

With Logan Stanley possibly going somewhere

 

[Hisch13r]

I would think Buffalo could easily fit in a big goalie contract but they likely want to see how things play out with Levi first.

With Power's contract up next year and Dahlin being 10+ next year and them wanting to add a top 4 D I imagine that would make things a lot tighter with an 8-9 mil goalie.

I guess it's

Jets Get
Vilardi
Prospect/pick
Prospect/pick

Kings Get
Dubois



New Jersey Gets
Helleybuck

Jets get
Vanecek
Roster Player
Maybe Prospect/pick

With Logan Stanley possibly going somewhere

Let's say it's like Vanecek, Sharangovich, and Holtz. I can't see it being that little. Kuemper got moved for a 1st, 3rd, and Timmins.

 

[Nocashstyle]

I'm not going to use last season as any indication for Schmid. The year before he was literally the worst goalie that played in the league. Goalies are chaotic in general and even more so for young goalies. I'd be more than fine with cycling through cheap goalies if I was able to get Hellebuyck at a reasonable deal but that's just not going to happen.

Lol. He played 12 periods last year. You’re really going to put any stock into that? Especially further considering the context of those games?

 

[Hisch13r]

Lol. He played 12 periods last year. You’re really going to put any stock into that? Especially further considering the context of those games?

My point is more I'm not really putting much of any stock into young goalies and turning down Hellebuyck at 5 years because maybe Schmid becomes something is weird. There's a much higher chance Schmid is no different than the majority of NHL goalies which are constantly up and down than Hellebuyck who is one of the few goalies you can count on to be great. Like at 8.5x5 you're twisting my arm and I'm not sure I'd do it but Schmid being a potential cap casualty because of it doesn't even cross my mind. The hype for Schmid is way too high. He could just as easily fizzle out into nothingness

 

[pegcity]

With Power's contract up next year and Dahlin being 10+ next year and them wanting to add a top 4 D I imagine that would make things a lot tighter with an 8-9 mil goalie.



Let's say it's like Vanecek, Sharangovich, and Holtz. I can't see it being that little. Kuemper got moved for a 1st, 3rd, and Timmins.

I think that's likely the return. Something like that.

 

[Huffer]

Let's say it's like Vanecek, Sharangovich, and Holtz. I can't see it being that little. Kuemper got moved for a 1st, 3rd, and Timmins.

I think from the Jets perspective (not saying from the Devils), they might value Casey as well to add some RHD depth. Whether he replaces a piece like Sharangovich, or the Jets add something else to balance. Just spitballing from a potential fit perspective.

 

[Maukkis]

With Power's contract up next year and Dahlin being 10+ next year and them wanting to add a top 4 D I imagine that would make things a lot tighter with an 8-9 mil goalie.



Let's say it's like Vanecek, Sharangovich, and Holtz. I can't see it being that little. Kuemper got moved for a 1st, 3rd, and Timmins.

Not sure if it's great, but it definitely isn't terrible either.

 

[MardyBum]

I'd rather

With Power's contract up next year and Dahlin being 10+ next year and them wanting to add a top 4 D I imagine that would make things a lot tighter with an 8-9 mil goalie.



Let's say it's like Vanecek, Sharangovich, and Holtz. I can't see it being that little. Kuemper got moved for a 1st, 3rd, and Timmins.

A starting goalie(which the Jets absolutely need right now), a good second/third line forward who's only 25 and a guy the same age as Perfetti seems fair to me from the Devils.

They want more "now" pieces with term. A 1st is fine, but it'd be a 2024 1st? And that's what, 4 years minimum away from impacting the roster?

Can't attract good FA's so these trades are their only option for good NHL roster players or young guys with the potential to be good.

 

[Hisch13r]

I think from the Jets perspective (not saying from the Devils), they might value Casey as well to add some RHD depth. Whether he replaces a piece like Sharangovich, or the Jets add something else to balance. Just spitballing from a potential fit perspective.

If that's the case I'd rather him replace Holtz since I'd be looking to move Yegor somewhere this summer and would rather keep Holtz. Value wise Vanecek, Sharangovich, Casey/Holtz to me seems like a steal on the Devils end even if it's just a rental. I guess if the Jets are looking more to continue competing rather than look for futures it could make some sense but it feels light to me.

 

[Weltschmerz]

With Power's contract up next year and Dahlin being 10+ next year and them wanting to add a top 4 D I imagine that would make things a lot tighter with an 8-9 mil goalie.



Let's say it's like Vanecek, Sharangovich, and Holtz. I can't see it being that little. Kuemper got moved for a 1st, 3rd, and Timmins.

The first was the last pick of the first round, the third was conditional and Timmins was a bust, also Kuemper came with retention.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Hockey fans have really bad opinions on goalies. The "don't spend money on goalies" idea comes from cherrypicked examples of where it worked, when a majority of time it doesn't work.

Since 2009, half of the cup winning teams were paying their goalies more than the equivalent of $7 million today.

Matt Murray won twice, Blues won with a Jordan Binnington that came out of nowhere. Adin Hill and Kuemper just won cups recently without spending much on them. You can use Vasy but Hellebuyck is nowhere near him. It also has to do with age, Bob literally cratered a roster for a couple of years until he decided to play for the cap hit of his contract.

 

[Hisch13r]

The first was the last pick of the first round, the third was conditional and Timmins was a bust, also Kuemper came with retention.

I mean it wasn't 32nd when it was moved. To me if you're moving on from Hellebuyck you should be looking for futures and moving out other pieces rather than continue to try and compete without the backbone of your team.