Player Discussion Colin White - C/RW

[FormentonTheFuture]

Most fans and most of this board was thrilled with the signing. The contract thread still exists and you can go back and read all the posts about what a steal the contract is (supposedly).

I assume White’s agent may have floated a hold out possibility and the Sens didn’t want the bad publicity after loosing 3 UFA’s and promising fans they would keep the young players.

You might wanna read this The best, worst contracts for every NHL team

 

[Sweatred]

It's unfair to compare pre-COVID contracts with post-COVID contracts. If White can be an effective 50 point centre, he's worth what he signed in 2019.

Not really ... there is an issue there but it’s not like White’s contract was good pre Covid either. Good players are moving their payouts around the Covid years and getting normal AAV’s.

 

[Sweatred]

You might wanna read this The best, worst contracts for every NHL team

Thats good stuff... and what should be obvious.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

It's unfair to compare pre-COVID contracts with post-COVID contracts. If White can be an effective 50 point centre, he's worth what he signed in 2019.

Yeah of course he would be worth it if he becomes an effective 50 point center. That’s a high bar tho

 

[jhutter]

Not really ... there is an issue there but it’s not like White’s contract was good pre Covid either. Good players are moving their payouts around the Covid years and getting normal AAV’s.

You're telling me that there's no difference between pre-COVID contracts and post-COVID contracts? COVID has changed the entire landscape.

White's contract was an overpayment in 2019, but not a significant one based on his previous season.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Thats good stuff... and what should be obvious.

Uh did you read it?

 

[Sweatred]

You're telling me that there's no difference between pre-COVID contracts and post-COVID contracts? COVID has changed the entire landscape.

White's contract was an overpayment in 2019, but not a significant one based on his previous season.

The flat cap is squeezing teams but is the same level as White’s contract year. Top players are still getting money. Dadonov got a raise, Reinhart got $5, Hall got $8. There are tonnes of contracts around the league that are “normal”.

There will be more signings soon if a season starts and the league wide available cap money will probably be similar or less than White’s signing year. Things are different but teams are still spending.

Covid’s main impact will be on the player payouts if the league only pays out 65% of salaries. Their AAV number will remain artificially close to normal.

So no, I don’t think all of the error in his contract can be attributed to Covid.

 

[Sweatred]

Thats good stuff... and what should be obvious.

Ha ! Not well... do you think Colin White is a better player than Z?

White had a replacement level season. If we call that a $800K of value he is sitting at $3.2 negative value going into next season. No idea how anyone can think that is good value unless they think White will soon start putting up $5-6 million type seasons (which would get him to even value on his contract t). Even value isn’t a “great deal”.

A great deal would be putting up $7-8 type seasons where he ends up outperforming his contract with say $30-35 million of value why we paid him $26 million.

 

[Xspyrit]

It's unfair to compare pre-COVID contracts with post-COVID contracts. If White can be an effective 50 point centre, he's worth what he signed in 2019.

Even if he is "just" a ~ 45 pts 2-way center. 4.75 is closer to the NHL average salary (pre-covid) than players like Kevin Hayes, Evander Kane, Anders Lee and James Van Riemdsyk at 7.0. Some of them have had good/great seasons but we're not talking about high end producers either

There was an article that showed that White was 62nd percentile defensively last season. If he can continue to improve defensively, that stat could be even better. And it would be quite normal if he does as he has only played 155 NHL Games and just turned 23 y/ when the season was stopped.

Even though he struggled for a while after coming back from injury, this White situation has been overstated like crazy. Didn't see many people do it though, it was more like 1 voice leading the campain.

2018-19 : 47 pts pace
2019-20 : 31 pts pace

Would it be that crazy to think that White could be that ~ 45 pts 2-way center? Particularly if the team around him gets better?

He basically just needs to be a slightly better version of Tierney (more exciting would be great too). We understand hat Tierney would have gotten more if no covid, which is also demonstrated by the salary he'll get for 2021-22 : 4.2 M$

Edit : my dog also just reminded me "don't forget, White's contract was also very contextual, Sens were trading every significant player and wanted to show a commitment for the future in signing both White and Chabot long term. In a normal situation, there was absolutely no need to sign White long term. Love my dog.

 

[GCK]

Ha ! Not well... do you think Colin White is a better player than Z?

White had a replacement level season. If we call that a $800K of value he is sitting at $3.2 negative value going into next season. No idea how anyone can think that is good value unless they think White will soon start putting up $5-6 million type seasons (which would get him to even value on his contract t). Even value isn’t a “great deal”.

A great deal would be putting up $7-8 type seasons where he ends up outperforming his contract with say $30-35 million of value why we paid him $26 million.

You talk a lot about negative and positive value to contract. I’ve asked before but could you share the metric you are using so we could apply it to other players on the team or around the league.

 

[jhutter]

The flat cap is squeezing teams but is the same level as White’s contract year. Top players are still getting money. Dadonov got a raise, Reinhart got $5, Hall got $8. There are tonnes of contracts around the league that are “normal”.

There will be more signings soon if a season starts and the league wide available cap money will probably be similar or less than White’s signing year. Things are different but teams are still spending.

Covid’s main impact will be on the player payouts if the league only pays out 65% of salaries. Their AAV number will remain artificially close to normal.

So no, I don’t think all of the error in his contract can be attributed to Covid.

Taylor Hall got $8M when he was supposed to get $64M, lol. You’re clearly cherry-picking and ignoring reality to attempt to further your point.

 

[Sweatred]

You talk a lot about negative and positive value to contract. I’ve asked before but could you share the metric you are using so we could apply it to other players on the team or around the league.

yes - he sucks and should Have been in the minors, those guys make $90K and he was paid $4 million.

If the eye test isn’t good enough use White’s GAR/AAV. Compare it to Guys like Chaplik, Brown, Z, or Ennis.

 

[Sweatred]

Taylor Hall got $8M when he was supposed to get $64M, lol. You’re clearly cherry-picking and ignoring reality to attempt to further your point.

Not at all, look what the Habs have paid out. Josh A got huge money. Most signings around the league are decent. Look at what we gave Murray. There are more Anderson’s than Duclairs and Duclair’s final number isn’t yet confirmed.

Look, I like the player and want him to succeed, I just don’t think he is worth an AAV of $4.75. I think his value currently is closer to Chaplik than Dadonov. If you think he is worth $5 mill ... wonderful. We would spend money differently if we were NHL GM’s... beyond that who cares.

 

[Boud]

yes - he sucks and should Have been in the minors, those guys make $90K and he was paid $4 million.

If the eye test isn’t good enough use White’s GAR/AAV. Compare it to Guys like Chaplik, Brown, Z, or Ennis.

Let's relax here. White had an injury this year and clearly admitted himself that he wasn't feeling right this season. Towards the end of the year he started playing better and Smith put him back on the first line and he finished the year with 8 points in 10 games. He's still a young guy, he'll have a fresh start this year with a long offseason to get ready.

There's a chance he comes in and totally shits the bed, you're right about that but we also have to acknowledge the chance that he becomes a good middle-six guy that can play anywhere in your lineup and put up points and PK. I think we need to stop talking and wait and see what White does when the season starts.

 

[Sweatred]

Let's relax here. White had an injury this year and clearly admitted himself that he wasn't feeling right this season. Towards the end of the year he started playing better and Smith put him back on the first line and he finished the year with 8 points in 10 games. He's still a young guy, he'll have a fresh start this year with a long offseason to get ready.

There's a chance he comes in and totally shits the bed, you're right about that but we also have to acknowledge the chance that he becomes a good middle-six guy that can play anywhere in your lineup and put up points and PK. I think we need to stop talking and wait and see what White does when the season starts.

Why ? We talk about player development all the time. That’s like saying we should stop talking about Brown and wait and see what he does.

you can’t create an artificial gag order. If he was injured he should have sat out and recovered. He sure didn’t provide any value playing.

it sounds like his terrible season has motivated him to train. Hopefully as a 24 year old he comes back stronger and more mature ready to develop a defensive side to his game. I want him to be better (useful) but I don’t want him blocking Norris or Brown (which he he already does).

the most over exaggerated part of Whites game is his defensive play. He isn’t good at killing penalties, winning faceoffs, and DJ doesn’t trust him in his own end. His draft profile called him a 2 way player but his on ice play in the NHL doesn’t support that.

An improved player with greater physical and mental determination could become a good two way player.

We have 1000’s of posts rejoicing about how good his contract is, I’m sure we can have a few that question it’s value.

 

[Micklebot]

If he was injured he should have sat out and recovered.

Leaving aside your evaluation of Colin White's on ice contributions, this assumes no player development can be achieved while playing through an injury and that sitting out would speed up his recovery or benefit his development compared to playing him, neither is necessarily true. Players play through injury all the time, the season was never about winning, so if he was healthy enough to play and not risk aggravating the injury, the choice to sit him out needed to be from a development perspective.

You often cite what DJ thinks (or at least what you think he thinks), such as DJ doesn't trust him defensively, but at the same time ignore that it is DJ who chose not to healthy scratch White. Presumably he either saw value in the playing time for White's development, disagrees with your assesment that he brought nothing on the ice, or both.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Yost: Analysis gets complicated in the faceoff circle - TSN.ca

 

[Sweatred]

Leaving aside your evaluation of Colin White's on ice contributions, this assumes no player development can be achieved while playing through an injury and that sitting out would speed up his recovery or benefit his development compared to playing him, neither is necessarily true. Players play through injury all the time, the season was never about winning, so if he was healthy enough to play and not risk aggravating the injury, the choice to sit him out needed to be from a development perspective.

You often cite what DJ thinks (or at least what you think he thinks), such as DJ doesn't trust him defensively, but at the same time ignore that it is DJ who chose not to healthy scratch White. Presumably he either saw value in the playing time for White's development, disagrees with your assesment that he brought nothing on the ice, or both.

So he’s well enough to play ... just not well enough to play well. I’d say if you are blaming sub replacement players on an injury you should take more time off.

It also possible he felt pressured to “find a spot” for White because his boss just gave him $26 million. DJ pretty much tried him at every spot on the team and 4RW was probably his most suited role last year.

DJ doesn’t send players to the minors but he definelty let White play through his struggles vs benching him. I think it’s obvious that more playing time is better than less for development.

Do you think DJ likes White as a 1-2C?

 

[Sweatred]

Yost: Analysis gets complicated in the faceoff circle - TSN.ca

Next up - why body checking and losing puck battles doesn’t really matter. Especially when your sheltered away from other teams best lines.

 

[Micklebot]

Yost: Analysis gets complicated in the faceoff circle - TSN.ca

Another thing to be considered is who you are facing off against. 48% at the dot might seem bad at first, but if you are disproportionately facing off against top ranked guys at the dot, or against lesser guys, that raw faceoff stat starts to lose its meaning

There is a site that tracks ELO scores for faceoffs, the ELO system was developed to rank chess players. The idea being your ranking improves more for a win against a strong opponent and less against weak ones.

Hockeyeloratings.com/players/faceoffratings

By this metric, White is actually ahead of Tierney at the dot despite his raw faceoff % being almost 4% points lower.

 

[aragorn]

I don't see Tierny, Anisimov, Galchenyuk or even Chlapik as long term solutions at centre for Ottawa. The only two centres in this organization I see as long term solutions are L. Brown & Norris & there are all kinds of questions around Logan. Stuetzle & Pinto could be other solutions at centre & they could draft one next yr, but as of right now they don't have a lot of options which is why I think White sticks around until a younger better prospect takes his spot. IMO both Norris & L. Brown should eventually pass White, but that shouldn't matter since the 3rd centre spot could be ideal for the way White plays. They have a few guys already who could fill the 4th line centre spot in Kastelic, Paul or Chlapik so that spot isn't as critical.

L. Brown has the skillset IMO to be a true #1 centre, Norris has the perfect skillset to be a very good two way centre for that 2nd line spot & White has the defensive skillset to be a good 3rd line centre. However, White could also be the weakest link at centre production wise unless they can put two offensive players on either side of him. I don't really see that happening, but Ottawa now has some decent choices with Formenton, Sokolov, Jarventie & Pinto in the org who may be able to add some offence to a 3rd line.

 

[Cosmix]

Yost: Analysis gets complicated in the faceoff circle - TSN.ca

That was an interesting read. The analysis of what happens after the faceoff excluded consideration of the Defensemen on the ice, which would be an important factor in determining the result.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

That was an interesting read. The analysis of what happens after the faceoff excluded consideration of the Defensemen on the ice, which would be an important factor in determining the result.

QoT is mentioned I believe.. (Quality of team mates .. I assume that would include defense-men) . Like he says more analysis needed.

 

[Cosmix]

QoT is mentioned I believe.. (Quality of team mates .. I assume that would include defense-men) . Like he says more analysis needed.

Thanks. He did ID the forwards but not the D.

 

[Micklebot]

Thanks. He did ID the forwards but not the D.

Likely because all three had Chabot as their most common dman so there wasn't much value in bringing it up.. You don't see as big of a difference between forwards on ice time with various dmen so it's typically not focused on.