Player Discussion Colin White - C/RW

[Sweatred]

Fixed.

Ya, 2 is ridiculous ... those two really get in my way when I’m trying to SPAM El Cheapo/Mr. Scrooge posts in 300 different posts a day.

 

[Sun God Nika]

historically Duclair 37 pts a season in his career. He goes hot and cold and that should be considered in his contract anything over 3.75m is an overpayment so duclair can f*** off. Colin White was given his contract due to future potential and the sens hoping it would turn into a bargain in the future.

 

[Sweatred]

historically Duclair 37 pts a season in his career. He goes hot and cold and that should be considered in his contract anything over 3.75m is an overpayment so duclair can f*** off. Colin White was given his contract due to future potential and the sens hoping it would turn into a bargain in the future.

Can't wait for White to give $8 million of value when were paying him $6.25... That will be such a steal.

 

[BoardsofCanada]

Don't blame White...blame Dorion for that ridiculous contract.

 

[GCK]

Don't blame White...blame Dorion for that ridiculous contract.

The last 3 years can be bought out in June 2022 for under 900K per year. He basically has 2 years to prove he was worth the deal. I expect 40-50 points this season (prorated). It’s in his hands.

 

[OD99]

I would say even if this is true (BTW is there anything other than a blogger's opinion around to validate the White comparable angle?) it is STILL just a player in over his head trying to negotiate a multi-million dollar contract.

This isn't a trend in any way, it is a 1-off and a very tough lesson to learn for Duke...see all those 1 year, $700k contracts being handed out? He is much closer to that than $5.5 X 5 and despite being young most likely cost himself and his family many millions of dollars.

Plus why wouldn't he compare himself to Ryan? It is still a contract, just like White's and it is for a guy who is more of a comparable - a guy who is supposed to score goals.

 

[Sweatred]

The last 3 years can be bought out in June 2022 for under 900K per year. He basically has 2 years to prove he was worth the deal. I expect 40-50 points this season (prorated). It’s in his hands.

I agree. I think it will be interesting to see where he slots. If he gets 1C & PP1 playing time with Chabot, Brady, Dadonov etc he probably gets 30-40 pts regardless if he is playing well or not. If he is playing a traditional 3C/3RW or 4c/4RW roll further down the lineup he probably struggles to get 40. I think if he gets 1C playing time he needs to be in the range 40-50+ pts if the team is scoring. I guess that a long way of saying its hard to judge his play based on pts. Last year I thought his play was terrible regardless if he got 20 or 40 pts. I prefer to evaluate him on based on his puck protection, passing, reception, play making, give aways, board battles etc.

 

[Micklebot]

Any evaluation of White should probably be done in terms of how he performs or would perform in a 2nd line role, be it as a center or on the wing. That's where his contract suggests they projected him,

 

[Alex1234]

I agree. I think it will be interesting to see where he slots. If he gets 1C & PP1 playing time with Chabot, Brady, Dadonov etc he probably gets 30-40 pts regardless if he is playing well or not. If he is playing a traditional 3C/3RW or 4c/4RW roll further down the lineup he probably struggles to get 40. I think if he gets 1C playing time he needs to be in the range 40-50+ pts if the team is scoring. I guess that a long way of saying its hard to judge his play based on pts. Last year I thought his play was terrible regardless if he got 20 or 40 pts. I prefer to evaluate him on based on his puck protection, passing, reception, play making, give aways, board battles etc.

White at 1C is a ridiculous idea

 

[Sweatred]

White at 1C is a ridiculous idea

Oh ... I 100% agree but thats where he played the last 10 games of the season or so. We could see it again. He could get 40pts there and I suspect many would think "he is back".

 

[Answer]

White at 1C is a ridiculous idea

It's not if you're trying to win the draft lottery.

 

[MakeOttawaGreatAgain]

Am I the only one who has no faith in White? He always looks like a deer in the headlights, looks like he's about to fall on his as, all of his best plays look like flukes. Don't hate the guy, but I would be happy to package him out for a better player.

 

[Masked]

Am I the only one who has no faith in White? He always looks like a deer in the headlights, looks like he's about to fall on his as, all of his best plays look like flukes. Don't hate the guy, but I would be happy to package him out for a better player.

Yeah total flukes.

 

[Sweatred]

Am I the only one who has no faith in White? He always looks like a deer in the headlights, looks like he's about to fall on his as, all of his best plays look like flukes. Don't hate the guy, but I would be happy to package him out for a better player.

I see his development really close to Chaplik (their games are different) and possibly slipping behind Norris & Batherson. It's a shame how he was rushed through the AHL and not forced to do the heavy lifting that our recent prospects have done like Paul, Brown, Bath, Form etc. Hopefully this break will help him develop some strength.

 

[JD1]

Am I the only one who has no faith in White? He always looks like a deer in the headlights, looks like he's about to fall on his as, all of his best plays look like flukes. Don't hate the guy, but I would be happy to package him out for a better player.

Nope. Pretty sure @Sweatred is right there with you

 

[MakeOttawaGreatAgain]

Yeah total flukes.

I mean, he's better than Schubert.

 

[Masked]

Nope. Pretty sure @Sweatred is right there with you

Not sure that's a hill I'd want to die on.

 

[Micklebot]

I thought it was interesting to look at his offensive production relative to peers,

5v5 pts/60 was around 1.39, but the difference between him and Tierney at 1.6 amounts to just 2 5v5 pts, well within the realm of random chance. Pageau was clicking at around 1.47 pts/60. This isn't to say his production was good, just that it wasn't far off from our other centers at 5v5.

But it's on the PP where things get problematic, he has easily the worst on the team and bottom of the barrel league wide (in the bottom 20 with 50 mins on the PP). Now, that might have something to do with the team in general though;

Ottawa was middle of the pack in xGF/60 on the PP, ranked 16th at 6.56 xGF per 60, but landed 29th in actual goals, at 5.12 GF/60. The delta of 1.44 fewer goals per 60 than expected was the worst in the league (20% bigger than the next closest team), and it seems the model typically underestimates how many goals you should be scoring, as 2/3rds of the league outperformed their xGF/60. Is it that we lack finishers? Hopefully we figure it out this year, because a PP that under performs expectations at that level will sink you pretty quick imo.

 

[Alex1234]

I thought it was interesting to look at his offensive production relative to peers,

5v5 pts/60 was around 1.39, but the difference between him and Tierney at 1.6 amounts to just 2 5v5 pts, well within the realm of random chance. Pageau was clicking at around 1.47 pts/60. This isn't to say his production was good, just that it wasn't far off from our other centers at 5v5.

But it's on the PP where things get problematic, he has easily the worst on the team and bottom of the barrel league wide (in the bottom 20 with 50 mins on the PP). Now, that might have something to do with the team in general though;

Ottawa was middle of the pack in xGF/60 on the PP, ranked 16th at 6.56 xGF per 60, but landed 29th in actual goals, at 5.12 GF/60. The delta of 1.44 fewer goals per 60 than expected was the worst in the league (20% bigger than the next closest team), and it seems the model typically underestimates how many goals you should be scoring, as 2/3rds of the league outperformed their xGF/60. Is it that we lack finishers? Hopefully we figure it out this year, because a PP that under performs expectations at that level will sink you pretty quick imo.

Thanks for the stats
Would be interesting to compare with the other 2015 first rounders

 

[Micklebot]

Expanding on the above, we can estimate a players expected pts/60 by multiplying their on ice xGF/60 by their individual pts percentage (the percentage on on-ice goals that they registered a point on). It's not perfect but based on that formula, White should have expected 2.3 more 5v5 pts, while Tierney should have expected 1.95 fewer pts.

Now, this is all rates/60 and you have to take it with a grain of salt as on a player level you can't assume the rate will hold when the role changes as linemates, opposition and deployment will all change to, but food for thought none the less.

 

[bicboi64]

Interesting stats posted. I'm confident White will put up 45-55 points this year and for the remainder of his contract at the least. He'll have had so much more time for recovery and will also have better wingers going forward. He won't be steal of a contract but I don't think it'll be an overpay either

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

White at 1C is a ridiculous idea

Poor decision by the team last year. That didn't do him any favors. Too much too soon. That and his early season hip injury and things went downhill for him in a hurry. Management pushed him into that role but the quality of wingers just were not there down the lineup to insulate him and he still needed it.

 

[Sweatred]

Poor decision by the team last year. That didn't do him any favors. Too much too soon. That and his early season hip injury and things went downhill for him in a hurry. Management pushed him into that role but the quality of wingers just were not there down the lineup to insulate him and he still needed it.

White was weak on all 4 of the lines he played on last year ... his confidence rose a bit in the final 10 with something in between better play, PP1, and puck luck... but he needs to be a contributor or a line driver to play in our top 6.... not a side kick who is passable only when playing with elite players.

 

[Micklebot]

White was weak on all 4 of the lines he played on last year ... his confidence rose a bit in the final 10 with something in between better play, PP1, and puck luck... but he needs to be a contributor or a line driver to play in our top 6.... not a side kick who is passable only when playing with elite players.

Doubtful that PP1 had anything to do with his increased production in his last 10 games, all 8 pts he got in the final 10 games were at ES.

 

[Sweatred]

Doubtful that PP1 had anything to do with his increased production in his last 10 games, all 8 pts he got in the final 10 games were at ES.

He had opportunistic play. His confidence boost was visible but it’s not like he was carrying play. He has some nice tools - there this notion that I don’t like him. That is far from the truth. I just feel he isn’t fully developed and now a mistake contract may interfere with developmental options. In my view It’s not unlike if we game Chaplik or LBrown $3.75 after skating between MS and MD for a season. There something there... but it’s not as good as it could be.

Connor Brown is better than White and we’re debating letting him go for sub White money.