Coach Discussion: Coaching Thread 3

[Al Camino]

I don't really credit him much with his SC win. That team was stacked top to bottom. A pylon could have coached that team to a SCF.

Lol. Not hard to play Pronger and Neidermayer for 35 minutes.

 

[Psych0dad]

Pronger was an absolute monster. No one is turning any current defencemen into Pronger. Helped the Oilers, Ducks and Flyers to a final.

Oleksiak could be on his way but likely will not be exactly a Pronger.

 

[surixon]

Now that it looks like we likely have the roster that we are going to run with barring perhaps a Roslovic for Weager type of deal I figured it is time to look at what we might expect from our coaching staff in terms of systems and style of play:

Last year the Jets were bottom 3 in terms of both offensive and defensive XGF% so in essence we need to improve across the board.

Offensively last year are systems were a nightmare and according to Murat obsolete based on what the best teams are running right now:

"I’ll also share that one of my biggest takeaways from these playoffs is that Winnipeg’s 5-on-5 game in the offensive zone is old-fashioned and lags behind this year’s Cup contenders. Modern NHL teams pick apart the offensive zone in sections, knowing when to cycle down low but also when to cycle up high and attack the middle of the ice from all sides. Winnipeg appears to want to make plays off the rush or move to the middle from the endboards after what has become an increasingly ineffective cycle. To me, that’s on coaching."

Jets mailbag: Winnipeg's Cup window, judging Jets' draft record and more

According to that same article it appears Maurice understands this and says the Jets will need to do different things next year but given this and the teams atrocious defense the Jets have an awful lot of catching up to do.h

Defensively the Jets have retained and added some defensive ability in:

DeMelo
Forbert

They also look to have Samberg another noted defensive dmen make the team.

As a result I would expect that the increased size/grit and defensive ability should lead to stronger team defense. I also expect Morrissey to bounce back now that he has a year of experience of being the guy under his belt, I also expect that all this time off will have allowed him to fully rehab what ever injury's he was dealing with last year.

So given that our defense should be much more solid I would have to think Maurice wont be passive and restrictive with the rest of his systems.

Upfront we have added Stastney and have a number of kids who should be better.

I still have major reservations on how Maurice is going to set up his forward lines. We should be able to dress a real strong top 12 this year and also should be able to better manage our top forwards ice times.

I will be very curious if we see any of the new aged offensive schemes in his game plan. If we do I think we have the skill to pick apart a good many of the teams in this league.

We also will need to improve both of our special teams significantly.

I personally think this is it for Maurice. Chevy has solidified the defense and brought in a good veteran 2C so there should be no excuses for Maurice not to have the horses needed to win this year. I don't feel this org can afford to fall further behind the 8 ball in terms of schemes so Maurice had better have done his homework this summer.

 

[tbcwpg]

Now that it looks like we likely have the roster that we are going to run with barring perhaps a Roslovic for Weager type of deal I figured it is time to look at what we might expect from our coaching staff in terms of systems and style of play:

Last year the Jets were bottom 3 in terms of both offensive and defensive XGF% so in essence we need to improve across the board.

Offensively last year are systems were a nightmare and according to Murat obsolete based on what the best teams are running right now:

"I’ll also share that one of my biggest takeaways from these playoffs is that Winnipeg’s 5-on-5 game in the offensive zone is old-fashioned and lags behind this year’s Cup contenders. Modern NHL teams pick apart the offensive zone in sections, knowing when to cycle down low but also when to cycle up high and attack the middle of the ice from all sides. Winnipeg appears to want to make plays off the rush or move to the middle from the endboards after what has become an increasingly ineffective cycle. To me, that’s on coaching."

Jets mailbag: Winnipeg's Cup window, judging Jets' draft record and more

According to that same article it appears Maurice understands this and says the Jets will need to do different things next year but given this and the teams atrocious defense the Jets have an awful lot of catching up to do.h

Defensively the Jets have retained and added some defensive ability in:

DeMelo
Forbert

They also look to have Samberg another noted defensive dmen make the team.

As a result I would expect that the increased size/grit and defensive ability should lead to stronger team defense. I also expect Morrissey to bounce back now that he has a year of experience of being the guy under his belt, I also expect that all this time off will have allowed him to fully rehab what ever injury's he was dealing with last year.

So given that our defense should be much more solid I would have to think Maurice wont be passive and restrictive with the rest of his systems.

Upfront we have added Stastney and have a number of kids who should be better.

I still have major reservations on how Maurice is going to set up his forward lines. We should be able to dress a real strong top 12 this year and also should be able to better manage our top forwards ice times.

I will be very curious if we see any of the new aged offensive schemes in his game plan. If we do I think we have the skill to pick apart a good many of the teams in this league.

We also will need to improve both of our special teams significantly.

I personally think this is it for Maurice. Chevy has solidified the defense and brought in a good veteran 2C so there should be no excuses for Maurice not to have the horses needed to win this year. I don't feel this org can afford to fall further behind the 8 ball in terms of schemes so Maurice had better have done his homework this summer.

Yeah I think those that feel Maurice has a job for life here should look at what they've done this offseason as they're not going to accept a poor team this year.

 

[surixon]

Yeah I think those that feel Maurice has a job for life here should look at what they've done this offseason as they're not going to accept a poor team this year.

Yup, Chipman is going to take a big financial hit this year and he ain't doing it to ice a mediocre team. He's doing it cause he sees the opportunity to take advantage of a number of teams that can't spend this year in order to try to win.

 

[pucka lucka]

Why does anyone believe Maurice is going to do anything different? He's already about 15 years behind in how he deploys his players. That's before we talk any tactics. we've been in the playoffs 3 times in a decade and most of it with 1 coach. With the players we've had here that is disgusting.

 

[surixon]

Why does anyone believe Maurice is going to do anything different? He's already about 15 years behind in how he deploys his players. That's before we talk any tactics. we've been in the playoffs 3 times in a decade and most of it with 1 coach. With the players we've had here that is disgusting.

I dont expect anything different myself but he is going to start with us so hopefully he does change things up.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Its likely pretty make or break for Paul this year tho.

If we improve and maybe have a nice playoff run.. Win a round... He stays.

If we flop, he's gone.

 

[Teemusalami204]

Its likely pretty make or break for Paul this year tho.

If we improve and maybe have a nice playoff run.. Win a round... He stays.

If we flop, he's gone.

iMO he has a couple years of excuses left

 

[tbcwpg]

iMO he has a couple years of excuses left

I think this is the last year. No excuses after this offseason. I'm not expecting the Cup this year but they should be a comfortable playoff team.

 

[Teemusalami204]

I think this is the last year. No excuses after this offseason. I'm not expecting the Cup this year but they should be a comfortable playoff team.

I expect a comfortable playoff team as well. I just don’t see change like that happening.

To be honest I think he has as long as wheelers contract

One injury and he gets a pass as well

 

[surixon]

I expect a comfortable playoff team as well. I just don’t see change like that happening.

To be honest I think he has as long as wheelers contract

One injury and he gets a pass as well

In another year I would agree but Chipman is going lose money this year. He isnt spending to the cap accept a poor year.

 

[Teemusalami204]

In another year I would agree but Chipman is going lose money this year. He isnt spending to the cap accept a poor year.

This would of been a cap team with buff and little so it’s not like Chipman went out of his way to spend to the cap.

The exact same lines and structure will happen next year. Everything will be the exact same.

There will always be a excuse that is uncontrollable and it will take away all blame for Maurice.

 

[surixon]

This would of been a cap team with buff and little so it’s not like Chipman went out of his way to spend to the cap.

The exact same lines and structure will happen next year. Everything will be the exact same.

There will always be a excuse that is uncontrollable and it will take away all blame for Maurice.

He could have done what other teams have done and cut salary due to his revenue streams declining. He is instead choosing to ice a competitive team.

He wants this year to be successful on a number of fronts. He wants to get the fans excited so that they renew tickets in 21-22 when a vaccine is likely on the table. Another year like last year and it could potentially really hurt his bottom line.

Change happens when things start to eat away at profitability. Excuses won't cut it this year imo. I dont expect Moe to do anything differently but if things go off the rails he will be replaced, I have no doubt about that.

 

[NotCommitted]

I hope we get Randy Carlyle as a coach. He's a True North guy. He won a Stanley Cup. How? He never split up Getlzaf and Perry. He had a superstar in Teemu Selanne, played him with Andy Mc Donald and Chris Kunitz. Used the checking line of Moen-Pahlssson- Rob Niedrmayer to get the distance. Well Copp-Lowry are the same no?
He loved tough 4th lines, so we would never get pushed around again.

Of course he had Scott Niedrmayer and Pronger. Well maybe you get Niedrmayer results from Morrissey with him. Can we develop Samberg into Pronger?

And if he fails, well at least it won't be Maurice's fault.

I get you're trying to make a point but McDonald was their best and #1 center. Getzlaf and Perry were the up and coming youth line Getzlaf took off in the playoffs and never looked back, Perry had very good playoffs at well. That made for a very stacked top6, but make no mistake, Selänne-McDonald-Kunitz was the 1st line all season.

 

[Teemusalami204]

He could have done what other teams have done and cut salary due to his revenue streams declining. He is instead choosing to ice a competitive team.

He wants this year to be successful on a number of fronts. He wants to get the fans excited so that they renew tickets in 21-22 when a vaccine is likely on the table. Another year like last year and it could potentially really hurt his bottom line.

Change happens when things start to eat away at profitability. Excuses won't cut it this year imo. I dont expect Moe to do anything differently but if things go off the rails he will be replaced, I have no doubt about that.

Change should happen when the chance of losing money is far away on the horizon. Not when it starts. Once you start to lose money it takes a while to recover without drastic changes which poses even more risk, for the most risk adverse franchise in pro sports this is it an option.

Change should of happened before this year coaching wise. And it hasn’t. This tells me Maurice is here for the long hall ( wheeler contract )

If the way the Jets has been run tells us anything. It says that winning with this leadership group including Maurice is the way it’s going to happen, as long as wheeler is captain, Maurice will be here.

If we haven’t won a cup by then wheeler and Maurice will both be signed to a year or two deal for one more kick at the can

 

[JetsUK]

He could have done what other teams have done and cut salary due to his revenue streams declining. He is instead choosing to ice a competitive team.

He wants this year to be successful on a number of fronts. He wants to get the fans excited so that they renew tickets in 21-22 when a vaccine is likely on the table. Another year like last year and it could potentially really hurt his bottom line.

Change happens when things start to eat away at profitability. Excuses won't cut it this year imo. I dont expect Moe to do anything differently but if things go off the rails he will be replaced, I have no doubt about that.[/QUOTE]

Wasn't there a thread doing the rounds once upon a time in which an NHL GM/scouting staff (Bergevin? Nonis?) and a potato went head to head roster-building exercise, and the potato came out comfortably on top?

It would be interesting to see how that potato, if it's still in the hockey business, might fare as coach of the Jets.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah I think those that feel Maurice has a job for life here should look at what they've done this offseason as they're not going to accept a poor team this year.

It may depend on how a couple of factors weigh this season. Another year of injuries like last year might provide an excuse. The Covid season might be messed up enough that assessment is suspect.

But this will be the 2nd season since his extension. It won't be out of the question to move on if the results are below expectations.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

In another year I would agree but Chipman is going lose money this year. He isnt spending to the cap accept a poor year.

I think that argument is full of holes. He will lose the same amount of money regardless of any effect of coaching. He will lose more money if he is paying 2 coaches next year.

I agree that Maurice has to be on the hot seat this year. But not for that reason.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This would of been a cap team with buff and little so it’s not like Chipman went out of his way to spend to the cap.

The exact same lines and structure will happen next year. Everything will be the exact same.

There will always be a excuse that is uncontrollable and it will take away all blame for Maurice.

Uhhhh ???? no.

We will have Stastny next year. Lines not the same.
We will have DeMelo next year. D not the same.
We will also have Samberg next year. More change.

Sometimes, there are uncontrollable excuses. Sometimes not. We will have some injuries. But a few injuries are no excuse. Leading the league in man games lost would be an excuse.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

If money is tight, we might actually see them go for a cheaper up-and-coming coach, instead of rotating the same old coaches that have been around forever. I like that

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Wasn't there a thread doing the rounds once upon a time in which an NHL GM/scouting staff (Bergevin? Nonis?) and a potato went head to head roster-building exercise, and the potato came out comfortably on top?

It would be interesting to see how that potato, if it's still in the hockey business, might fare as coach of the Jets.

 

[surixon]

I think that argument is full of holes. He will lose the same amount of money regardless of any effect of coaching. He will lose more money if he is paying 2 coaches next year.

I agree that Maurice has to be on the hot seat this year. But not for that reason.

I'm not just looking at next year in terms of potentially losing money. I'm also looking at the year after. I think a big reason for spending the money is to put a good product on the table this year is to get the fans re-energized and willing come back and pack the arena after COVID.

Putting another garbage product on the table while then asking a COVID ravaged fanbase to come back and spend big cash is likely not going to go over that well.

For those reasons I think he would be fully ready to move on if the product is below expectations.

 

[JetsUK]

Copying this post over from the Laine thread because I hadn't really paid much attention to coaching-impact studies for hockey. I coach and have advanced certs for a few sports, but they're all individual sports, where the coach-competitor dynamic is lot easier to monitor and assess. No idea of the quality of the original research, or if any of this data is useful, but thought I'd leave it here.

Whileee said: ↑

If people don't like Maurice for stymying Laine and the Jets' offense, imagine how they'd respond to Trotz' coaching.​

JetsUK said:
We'd be too busy winning to complain about Trotz. Winning all the way to the bank.

I do seem to remember reading an article a while back, or at least a detailed post, trying to get at the impact of coaching. As I recall there were some areas where coaches outperformed others, but that the variables involved were complex and tricky to quantify.

That being said, if NHL coaches are 90% alike, then 10% of them are different, and better. And I'd be happy to join the lucky 10%.

EDIT: Here's some articles on the subject, uncurated:

Coaching case study: How much do NHL coaches impact team performance?

Coaching case study: How much do NHL coaches impact team performance? - Sportsnet.ca

Analyzing the impact of an NHL coaching change: Toronto Maple Leafs

Analyzing the impact of an NHL coaching change: Vegas Golden Knights

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm not just looking at next year in terms of potentially losing money. I'm also looking at the year after. I think a big reason for spending the money is to put a good product on the table this year is to get the fans re-energized and willing come back and pack the arena after COVID.

Putting another garbage product on the table while then asking a COVID ravaged fanbase to come back and spend big cash is likely not going to go over that well.

For those reasons I think he would be fully ready to move on if the product is below expectations.

That's not the same thing.

He will want a good product to help ensure a strong recovery after Covid. Period. It is not that he is spending money and will demand a commensurate result.

Maurice will be on the hot seat because he will have had enough chances, enough good players, enough time, etc. He will have had enough. Period. Covid or no Covid.

I'm not even sure that excuses will save him this time, if there are excuses.

So ....... is Paul feeling the pressure? If he is, will it make him a better coach, or a worse one? Or neither?