Speculation: Coach Killers?

[Oilhawks]

They need more Hyman’s. There’s a guy who’s confident in his own game, doesn’t care who he’s playing with (in a good way), and busts his ass on most shifts.

Hot take alert but Hyman is my favourite player on the team (yes) because of that. He pretty much encapsulates the 05-06 and the earlier undermanned teams in absolute work ethic and professionalism. Plus he has the skill the stand out.

Kane is up there for me too but he does float at times (like McDrai and Nuge).

They need a Hyman on each line to drag them out of entitlement

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I do believe we miss the vocal leadership of Keith, Kassian and Smith in that locker room. In a big way.

In what way was Kassian a leader? Dude has infinite buoancy.

Smith I also don't think was all that much of a leader seeing as he glared daggers at his defensemen for any goal he gave up, including that Andersson missle from 200 ft.

Keith maybe but he sucked on the ice.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

In what way was Kassian a leader? Dude has infinite buoancy.

Smith I also don't think was all that much of a leader seeing as he glared daggers at his defensemen for any goal he gave up, including that Andersson missle from 200 ft.

Keith maybe but he sucked on the ice.

Each in their own way. This isn't a vocal group by all accounts.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Each in their own way. This isn't a vocal group by all accounts.

You don't have to be vocal to lead. I can't imagine Smith screeching at the team for oopsies made the team play harder.

Plus all those three were very much on the team when the pre-Tippett firing slump occurred.

 

[Kerberos]

Well as of today, we aren't even in the playoffs. So if not now, then when?

There is good news though. We all knew that the first 35 or so games of the season were going to be very tough. I made a thread before the season began basically laying out this exact argument and telling people not to panic if we are out of the playoffs by mid-December. Check out these rankings as well for more on this: NHL Strength of Schedule Rankings. Basically we have played the 3rd hardest schedule in the league so far, and have the 2nd easiest schedule the rest of the way. Here is another site that uses pure win% for its rankings (NHL Western Conference Strength of Schedule) we have the 4 hardest so far in western conference, and the 4th easiest the rest of the way. Just showing the same thing, but using a different metric.

This really is true. Just look at the aggregate record of our opponents so far: 191-133-35, for a .581 winning % and a 95 point season pace. To make this even easier, we have played 19 games. Of those 19 we have played teams in the top 10 7 times and teams in the bottom 10 only 4 times. We have, by far, the worst division as well. With San Jose, Vancouver and Anaheim all in the bottom 10. We have played those 3 teams in our own division a grand total of 1 time so far this year. Things don't really start getting better from the schedule until early December either (3 of next 4 against top 20 teams).

We need to tread water for the next 4-5 games here, and then hopefully can go on a bit more of a run for the remainder of the season. We play a lot of teams that are expected to be out of the playoffs after trade deadline, so they will likely be selling off players and be even weaker. I expect the Oilers to have a very good last 25-30 games this year. 9 of our last 20 games are against teams that should be well out of the playoffs by that point, and 5 of the remaining 11 are against teams that are likely bubble teams.

TL/DR: Our schedule has SUCKED so far, but it will suck a lot less later in the year, and that is where we need to make hay if we want to make the playoffs.

If this team's success is dependent on strength of schedule, they're not a good team.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

I do believe we miss the vocal leadership of Keith, Kassian and Smith in that locker room. In a big way.

Keith was here last year, Smith for the entire Holland regime, and Kassian for almost the entire McDrai era. Still anywhere from below average to absolute dogwater defensively every season except 2016-17, which uncoincidentally was the one year where we had 6 defensemen playing at or around the pairing they're supposed to play.

Klef/Sekera were both legit #2 dmen who could match up vs opposing 1st lines, Larsson was a high end #3 who had chemistry with Klefbom and was greater than the sum of their parts on the top pair, Russell was a serviceable #4/5 who could play up and down the lineup, Nurse/Benning were an above league average bottom pairing who despite brainfarts were still net positives in sheltered minutes. The entire team including McDrai played within structure and the team put up solid defensive results b/c none of the defensemen were playing in over their heads like Ceci/Kulak/Bouchard are now. The very next season that exact same leadership group and defense core couldn't find the "D" in defense b/c Sekera post-injury and Larsson post-mental boom turned into #6/7 bottom feeding shitter dmen and all the sudden players couldn't keep their head above water anymore.

It's just a roster gap man. A couple speeches isn't gonna turn McDavid into Datsyuk, Draisaitl into Kopitar, RNH into Bergeron, or Nurse into Weber. The personnel just isn't there and hasn't been since 2017.

Well as of today, we aren't even in the playoffs. So if not now, then when?

There is good news though. We all knew that the first 35 or so games of the season were going to be very tough. I made a thread before the season began basically laying out this exact argument and telling people not to panic if we are out of the playoffs by mid-December. Check out these rankings as well for more on this: NHL Strength of Schedule Rankings. Basically we have played the 3rd hardest schedule in the league so far, and have the 2nd easiest schedule the rest of the way. Here is another site that uses pure win% for its rankings (NHL Western Conference Strength of Schedule) we have the 4 hardest so far in western conference, and the 4th easiest the rest of the way. Just showing the same thing, but using a different metric.

This really is true. Just look at the aggregate record of our opponents so far: 191-133-35, for a .581 winning % and a 95 point season pace. To make this even easier, we have played 19 games. Of those 19 we have played teams in the top 10 7 times and teams in the bottom 10 only 4 times. We have, by far, the worst division as well. With San Jose, Vancouver and Anaheim all in the bottom 10. We have played those 3 teams in our own division a grand total of 1 time so far this year. Things don't really start getting better from the schedule until early December either (3 of next 4 against top 20 teams).

We need to tread water for the next 4-5 games here, and then hopefully can go on a bit more of a run for the remainder of the season. We play a lot of teams that are expected to be out of the playoffs after trade deadline, so they will likely be selling off players and be even weaker. I expect the Oilers to have a very good last 25-30 games this year. 9 of our last 20 games are against teams that should be well out of the playoffs by that point, and 5 of the remaining 11 are against teams that are likely bubble teams.

TL/DR: Our schedule has SUCKED so far, but it will suck a lot less later in the year, and that is where we need to make hay if we want to make the playoffs.

f*** strength of schedule man. If you're a contender you're the difficult part of the schedule. A truly great team, like what the McDrai era Oilers should be with non-brain damaged management, shouldn't care about that noise.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Keith was here last year, Smith for the entire Holland regime, and Kassian for almost the entire McDrai era. Still anywhere from below average to absolute dogwater defensively every season except 2016-17, which uncoincidentally was the one year where we had 6 defensemen playing at or around the pairing they're supposed to play.

Klef/Sekera were both legit #2 dmen who could match up vs opposing 1st lines, Larsson was a high end #3 who had chemistry with Klefbom and was greater than the sum of their parts on the top pair, Russell was a serviceable #4/5 who could play up and down the lineup, Nurse/Benning were an above league average bottom pairing who despite brainfarts were still net positives in sheltered minutes. The entire team including McDrai played within structure and the team put up solid defensive results b/c none of the defensemen were playing in over their heads like Ceci/Kulak/Bouchard are now. The very next season that exact same leadership group and defense core couldn't find the "D" in defense b/c Sekera post-injury and Larsson post-mental boom turned into #6/7 bottom feeding shitter dmen and all the sudden players couldn't keep their head above water anymore.

I am not saying it solves everything but leadership matters especially in a team sport like hockey.

For sure, we have a massive hole at 2LD but leadership does count for something. We missed Hendricks when we didn't resign him and one can even say we missed Gagner when we didn't resign him.

You don't have to be vocal to lead. I can't imagine Smith screeching at the team for oopsies made the team play harder.

Plus all those three were very much on the team when the pre-Tippett firing slump occurred.

They were also on the team in the post Tippett streak and playoff run.

Insofar as not being vocal, sure that is fine but your entire leadership corps cannot be silent. That doesn't work.

 

[North]

They need more Hyman’s. There’s a guy who’s confident in his own game, doesn’t care who he’s playing with (in a good way), and busts his ass on most shifts.

This. He actually tries to do things without relying solely on McDavid and Drai to pull them through.

A lot of these guys fall back into that pattern of thinking that one of those two will go supernova so they don’t have to show up.

I am not saying it solves everything but leadership matters especially in a team sport like hockey.

For sure, we have a massive hole at 2LD but leadership does count for something. We missed Hendricks when we didn't resign him and one can even say we missed Gagner when we didn't resign him.



They were also on the team in the post Tippett streak and playoff run.

Insofar as not being vocal, sure that is fine but your entire leadership corps cannot be silent. That doesn't work.

Not for nothing but Gagner seems to be doing well in Winnipeg. He’s not breaking scoring records obviously but he knows his role and no matter what line he’s playing on he works his butt off.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I am not saying it solves everything but leadership matters especially in a team sport like hockey.

For sure, we have a massive hole at 2LD but leadership does count for something. We missed Hendricks when we didn't resign him and one can even say we missed Gagner when we didn't resign him.



They were also on the team in the post Tippett streak and playoff run.

Insofar as not being vocal, sure that is fine but your entire leadership corps cannot be silent. That doesn't work.

Perhaps it was also fitting that Keith and Smith were both swimming when the playoff run came to a crashing halt.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

I am not saying it solves everything but leadership matters especially in a team sport like hockey.

For sure, we have a massive hole at 2LD but leadership does count for something. We missed Hendricks when we didn't resign him and one can even say we missed Gagner when we didn't resign him.



They were also on the team in the post Tippett streak and playoff run.

Insofar as not being vocal, sure that is fine but your entire leadership corps cannot be silent. That doesn't work.

I really don't think Hendricks was the reason our defense fell apart in 2017-18 man, it's just our #2 and #3 dman losing their knee and losing their father respectively and all the sudden opened two gaping holes in the lineup that sophomore Darnell Nurse and Matt Benning were tasked to fill, one who did so decently (Nurse) and the other who floundered (Benning).

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I really don't think Hendricks was the reason our defense fell apart in 2017-18 man, it's just our #2 and #3 dman losing their knee and losing their father respectively and all the sudden opened two gaping holes in the lineup that sophomore Darnell Nurse and Matt Benning were tasked to fill, one who did so decently (Nurse) and the other who floundered (Benning).

Oh God I just had flashbacks to Matt Benning: Top 4 defenseman.

 

[Gordievsky]

Off-topic, but since so many posts comparing the D problem to Vancouver - he's a scary thought. You could actually combine the rosters of Edm/ Vancouver and while you'd end up with an incredibly deep collection of forwards - possibly the best ever - the combined team could still barely field an average NHL defensive corps.

Nurse - Quinn Hughes
Ceci - Barrie
OEL - Bouchard

Kulak, Ethan Bear

Several teams have a better group than that, IMO, to say nothing of the awful cap hit if you include all of Nurse, Hughes and OEL.

 

[Soundwave]

McDrai HAVE to play like that b/c nobody else on the team is capable of getting any production without them. Get a real roster around them, especially some defensemen that wont get themselves hemmed in for 50 shifts in a row, and there'd be less need for them to always try to play outside the system and cheat for offense b/c nobody else gets it done.

Don't worry

Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Benson, Holloway, Bourgault, are on it.

Off-topic, but since so many posts comparing the D problem to Vancouver - he's a scary thought. You could actually combine the rosters of Edm/ Vancouver and while you'd end up with an incredibly deep collection of forwards - possibly the best ever - the combined team could still barely field an average NHL defensive corps.

Nurse - Quinn Hughes
Ceci - Barrie
OEL - Bouchard

Kulak, Ethan Bear

Several teams have a better group than that, IMO, to say nothing of the awful cap hit if you include all of Nurse, Hughes and OEL.

It would probably be more like

Nurse-Hughes
OEL-Ceci
Kulak-Bouchard

I would assume, still yeah .... not a great group of defenders, lol. I guess Barrie could play forward.

 

[Beerfish]

The biggest coach killers this team has is the GM's, the constant array of stink bad GMs.
Which leads to the stink bad guys who hire them, the team presidents.
Which leads to the stink bad owner.

 

[bone]

I do believe we miss the vocal leadership of Keith, Kassian and Smith in that locker room. In a big way.

Those same leaders had the team at 18-16-2 after 36 games (38 points in 36 games) which basically is the same as our current 10-9 after 19 games (20 in 19 games), so I'm not so sure you can pin it on them moving along.

 

[Soundwave]

The biggest coach killers this team has is the GM's, the constant array of stink bad GMs.
Which leads to the stink bad guys who hire them, the team presidents.
Which leads to the stink bad owner.

More or less yeah.

Abysmal drafting, no significant trade wins in like 7 years and counting, relying on paying top dollar on the UFA market for any kind of improvement.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

The biggest coach killers this team has is the GM's, the constant array of stink bad GMs.
Which leads to the stink bad guys who hire them, the team presidents.
Which leads to the stink bad owner.

This is pretty much it. Failing upwards has always been this team's motto.

 

[FlameChampion]

They need more Hyman’s. There’s a guy who’s confident in his own game, doesn’t care who he’s playing with (in a good way), and busts his ass on most shifts.

Agreed. But there arent very many Hyman's. Very few I would say. Rare skill set. Hes more than just a motor.

Even someone like Foegele, you could make the claim that hes a poor mans Hyman. But without some of the other skills Hyman has, hes just not an effective player.

 

[MessierII]

In what way was Kassian a leader? Dude has infinite buoancy.

Smith I also don't think was all that much of a leader seeing as he glared daggers at his defensemen for any goal he gave up, including that Andersson missle from 200 ft.

Keith maybe but he sucked on the ice.

Keith didn’t suck. Look how the top 4 is without him. You should change your name to keithisactuallymissedbad. Even our worst stretch last year in December was at its apex when Keith was hurt. He was a huge part of the teams success last year as was smith when he was around.

Those same leaders had the team at 18-16-2 after 36 games (38 points in 36 games) which basically is the same as our current 10-9 after 19 games (20 in 19 games), so I'm not so sure you can pin it on them moving along.

Smith was out for most of that and Keith was hurt for most of December.

 

[Aerchon]

It's weird for me to be an optimist but this board is forcing me to be.

It's not roster.
It's not coaching.
It's not defense.

It's a team thing. Team defense is the biggest flaw but the team just isnt jiving. You can't look at the Devils who have 13 straight and say they have a great... anything. Lindy Ruff... really? Jesper who? Seriously is their defense that elite? No, it isn't. They are jelling, they are in a groove, they got the stuff.

The Oilers just need to find a bit of chemistry a bit of consistency. Realize they have everything they need to win and go out and do it.

Losing Kane and Yamamoto isn't particularly debilitating in the big picture and they need to work together to overcome that.

We are lucky we are in the Pacific Division. With a bit more leeway than we should have. I believe if for no other reason than that the Oilers have a good shot to still make the playoffs and once in and with Kane back, do some damage.

 

[Soundwave]

Keith didn’t suck. Look how the top 4 is without him. You should change your name to keithisactuallymissedbad. Even our worst stretch last year in December was at its apex when Keith was hurt. He was a huge part of the teams success last year as was smith when he was around.


Smith was out for most of that and Keith was hurt for most of December.

Oiler fans overly romanticize any kind of successful period. The team had the same problems for large stretches of last year.

In fact their goals against is actually down right now (this year) versus last year's playoffs with Keith, lol.

This simply isn't a good d-corps. Some guy giving a speech in the locker room isn't changing that.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Keith didn’t suck. Look how the top 4 is without him. You should change your name to keithisactuallymissedbad. Even our worst stretch last year in December was at its apex when Keith was hurt. He was a huge part of the teams success last year as was smith when he was around.


Smith was out for most of that and Keith was hurt for most of December.

Being hurt doesn’t stop you from being a leader. The team, or should I say McDavid and Draisatl, caught insane fire and willed this team to the WCF. Did Duncan Keith make McDavid go supernova?

 

[Soundwave]

It's weird for me to be an optimist but this board is forcing me to be.

It's not roster.
It's not coaching.
It's not defense.

It's a team thing. Team defense is the biggest flaw but the team just isnt jiving. You can't look at the Devils who have 13 straight and say they have a great... anything. Lindy Ruff... really? Jesper who? Seriously is their defense that elite? No, it isn't. They are jelling, they are in a groove, they got the stuff.

The Oilers just need to find a bit of chemistry a bit of consistency. Realize they have everything they need to win and go out and do it.

Losing Kane and Yamamoto isn't particularly debilitating in the big picture and they need to work together to overcome that.

We are lucky we are in the Pacific Division. With a bit more leeway than we should have. I believe if for no other reason than that the Oilers have a good shot to still make the playoffs and once in and with Kane back, do some damage.

Call me when the Oilers draft a Bratt type player outside of a top 3 pick, call me when the Oilers win a trade for a D-Man like NJ did.

The Oilers front office are like that kid that never actually wants to do their home work or study and then is dumb founded why their grades aren't good.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

In before the pending Dec 1 Fire Woody (or Fire Steelcroft) thread - are the Oilers coach killers?

We are seeing the same mind numbingly brain dead mistakes and lazy defensive play repeated this year as in the year Tippett was fired as in the year TMac was fired.

Team does not start on time.

Defense don’t hold the line and back in too deep.

Poor reads.

Players left unchallenged in front of our net.

Missed coverages on simple plays.

Near League worst PK and too many penalties.

Too many shots against.

Big mistakes at inopportune times.

Not executing the 2-1-2 allowing for easy breakouts and odd man rushes against.

The list goes on and on and are all too familiar for oil fans.

Wrong players? Wrong coach? Or are too many players are coach killers?

All of the above?

First, I think coaching is overrated. McLellan, Tippett, Woodcroft, all problem areas carry over from one coach to the next. In the fastest game in the world, player on-ice decision making in split instances bad and good determine outcomes. System play is largely the same and apex NHL players have played within complex systems for much of their hockey lives as elite talents. Players are overwhelmingly responsible for on-ice results.

One perceived issue I see with this team is with their roster construction - they seem to be a more cerebral player type, thinkers and playmaker mentality from McDavid's quiet leadership, guys like Nugent Hopkins, who think the game almost like a chess game. Not a surprise that they've tried to augment the core with assertive big meat eater types like Hyman and Kane who play hard, aggressive style of play in the tough, battle areas. Why Smith was a vocal leader for them and why Keith's elite mental strength and winner pedigree was very important to nurture the leadership corp and support young d-man development.

As a more finesse, cerebral 'type', I think we see this play out with slow, passive starts to games while opposition often engages physically, put pucks on net. Too often the finesse skill and cerebral mindset try to 'pass the puck' into the net whereby the additional of Hyman and Kane as volume shooters has at least help to mitigate this issue. The defense is not good enough but notably one-dimensional finesse types that are average at best with defending blue paint and not skilled enough to mitigate erratic own zone defending broadly. This team badly misses veteran leadership Larsson and his heavy, cycle breaking game and abrasive blue paint defending. Won't be a surprise if Holland targets this player type to better balance a soft d-corp and make opposition pay to be in the Oilers blue paint and high scoring areas of the ice.

 

[MessierII]

Being hurt doesn’t stop you from being a leader. The team, or should I say McDavid and Draisatl, caught insane fire and willed this team to the WCF. Did Duncan Keith make McDavid go supernova?

No but he played top 4 mins and we outscored the crap out of the other team when he was out there at even strength. Certainly wasn’t easily replaceable like you and others were touting all offseason. Our biggest hole now is a top 4 left D. Weird hey?