Discussion in 'Philadelphia Flyers' started by MiamiScreamingEagles, Sep 1, 2019.
Giroux = Dustin Brown, now
Kind of amazing how many diehard hockey fans haven't sorted out that results in hockey routinely don't match quality of play. Especially when a significant chunk of a sample size is spent with poor linemates.
this was funny.
I heard something no one else has
I will claim it as fact.
I am sorry you want to know my imaginary source, but its my best friend from childhood who is a purple and green unicorn that only I can see
I will not explain myself.
Sorry you want proof your President is a cock
When assessing the constant complaining about Giroux produced by Jim, it feels important to mention that he actually wanted to see Hagg, who is the 9th or 10th best dman in the organization, playing in the playoffs over superior players.
Player evaluations there seem flawed from the get-go.
Giroux hasn't fallen off a cliff, but he is slowly declining.
He's been shooting more with gradually less success, Sh% 18.0%, 11.6%, 9.3%.
His ES TOI fell, 16:06, 16:12, 14:49.
However, his actual scoring the previous two years was a bit of a fluke:
GF/60 - xGF/60
4.04 - 2.72
3.93 - 2.73
2.93 - 2.66
1.53 - 2.09
So it's less about him falling off dramatically than his anomalous scoring coming back to earth, that is, his 2019-20 scoring is more representative of his actual play than the previous two seasons. (GF seems to be generally about 10% more than xGF). On the other hand, his playoff scoring was below expectations, suggesting bad puck luck
Adjusting his previous two seasons to account for his "surplus" scoring,
46, 43, 36 is his normalized scoring the last three seasons at ES.
Expectations should be based on this trend, not orange colored spectacles predicting a return to his anomalous scoring.
His PP scoring fell off as well:
GF/60 - xGF/60
10.73 - 9.29
6.86 - 8.97
7.82 - 6.97
4.27 - 7.73
Again, more bad puck luck in the playoffs.
Giroux was as great this regular season as he was the previous two years and he was at worst tied for our best forward in the playoffs.
Only reason he wasn’t significantly over point per game in each was because of awful coaching sabotage and even worse luck.
But lazy fans want a scapegoat, so here we are.
I have a plan. Let's sign Thompson for 8 years and make him the Captain.
The captain-bashers will stop ripping Giroux for things that aren't his fault. They'll stop ripping him for never meeting a standard they'll always keep just above his level of play no matter how well he does. And finally, they'll be completely baffled at their conflicting needs. On the one hand, they lust for players like Thompson and think they are somehow magical; on the other, he's the captain, so they have to hate him.
It's a good idea, but I don't think it'll work. People still get ripped for things that aren't their fault all the time, even if they're not the captain.
I think the key to avoiding scapegoating is just to never be good at scoring because if they are and then it dips for even a moment, no matter what the reason is, a certain type of fan will think it must be their fault. After all, if you don't get 100% consistent results in a sport like hockey, it's almost always an effort/ability problem. We've seen this with Giroux, Voracek, Ghost, JVR, Carter, and many others.
Do you actually think every top forwards GF and xGF match up every season?
No, but if you look at it over time the general trend is for GF to be slightly more than xGF, Giroux had two extreme outlier seasons. So it becomes a way to identify seasons that are unsustainable, for good or evil.
The value of the comparison of the two rates is to try to identify changes, whether better linemates who finish, or anomalous production that's unlikely to continue. If the linemates are generally consistent, then a big shift is probably anomalous, if linemates improve, players will score at a higher margin over xGF/60.
Take 2010-11 and 2011-12, Giroux's two peak seasons earlier in his career:
3.08 - 2.71
3.26 - 2.81
Look at Voracek the last three years:
2.69 - 2.32
2.59 - 2.41
3.09 - 2.28
Voracek was helped this year by returning to the 1st line, but also compare to two years ago.
3.68 - 2.53
3.19 - 2.52
3.42 - 2.60
The three previous seasons, he had a higher xGF than GF, so moving to the first line boosted his actual scoring.
3.01 - 2.30
2.89 - 2.25
2.89 - 2.72
So moving off the 1st line this season probably reduced his production
If we look at individual statistics instead of on-ice statistics.
YearGoals/60 Individual Expected
Goals/60DifferenceShots/60Shooting %Individual Shot
Attempts/60Individual High Danger
Shot Attempts/6009-100.480.64-0.165.868.2510.762.9610-110.720.61+0.116.2711.4010.842.8611-121.000.74+0.268.5711.6115.493.8712-130.520.52-------7.317.0614.351.7213-140.810.56+0.156.9611.6813.412.3914-150.540.65-0.119.245.8516.412.4615-160.720.54+0.187.929.0913.572.3316-17 0.310.40 -0.095.89 5.3110.381.6717-181.080.49+0.596.0617.8911.182.2618-190.780.48+0.307.3110.6713.702.1419-200.690.61+0.088.188.4613.212.96*red = post-surgery year
Not looking like there's much of a decline after all.
What killed his point total was bad luck and the PP sabotage. Not his individual play. Same thing in the playoffs, where he was also great.
Uh, you just supported my contention that Giroux's stats in 17-18 amd 18-19 were inflated compared to his "norm."
So if you want his baseline, you should discount those two seasons and use last season's scoring as more of his norm.
That is, he's a 35-40 point ES scorer, which is 2nd line level.
Nothing wrong with that for a 33 year old forward, but let's forget about 60 point seasons, that's history.
Luckily for Giroux, 5v5 goal scoring isn't the exclusive way that players score points.
This past season his 5v5 assists and PP scoring were drastically impacted by bad luck and bad coaching. If they were normal, he'd have easily been over point per game.
We can still expect 70+ point years from Giroux in the future if he plays like he did last year but his luck goes back to even relatively normal.
If we look at the other ways he scores points...
As @Appleyard pointed out, he had horrible luck with assists this year.
Assists/6009-100.91 0.8510-111.82 1.2711-121.60 0.9412-131.46 1.2013-141.27 0.7114-150.98 0.5915-161.00 0.5016-170.63 0.2617-181.72 0.8618-191.66 1.1219-200.94 0.38*red = post-surgery year
And this is after it went up quite a bit towards the end of the year, where it was finally starting to normalize.
On the Powerplay
Assists/6009-103.4510-112.6411-126.3712-135.0713-145.8414-155.1615-164.1916-175.0817-185.6818-194.3719-203.63*red = post-surgery year
You can try and twist it all you want, but reality, the eyeballs and the statistics agree, Giroux is not an elite player.
Which doesn't mean he doesn't have value as a solid top 6 guy, but pretending he's more than that is silly.
Did players have lower shooting percentages with Giroux because he wasn't able to provide the passes he normally does....
I think its a bit of both. He's not creating the slamdunk opportunities he used with as much frequency AND his linemates havent finished at an acceptable clip.
Last year and the year before were identical from an underlying stats perspective...
18-19 he got a bit lucky.
19-20 he had abysmal luck.
In a "fair" world both are ~75-80 point seasons.
Plus, that bit of goal scoring luck in 18-19 was balanced out by the horrible PP luck they had to start the year (as I remember you pointing out before) and then the post-Hak coaching sabotage of putting him on the wrong side. Then this past season, the continued PP sabotage and the abysmal assist luck were a perfect storm of anti-scoring circumstances.
Also, as we just saw in the playoffs, Giroux's passing and playmaking haven't suffered at all. That's not why teammates weren't finishing.
Looking at the stats @Striiker posted. Shooting % seems to correlate directly with his higher point seasons.
17-18 and 18-19 he got quite a bit lucky, scoring way over what xGF would suggest.
Note his previous highs were 50, 53 and 49 ES points when he was 23-26 years old, his peak years.
It's doubtful he was a better player at 30-31 years old.
19-20 he may have been a little unlucky, but he played more with Voracek and less with TK as well.
2017-18: Voracek 473, TK 530 minutes
2018-19: Voracek 245, TK 670
2019-20: Voracek 401, TK 383
Another factor is ES time:
Reducing his ES time by 7% should reduce his ES scoring by about 4 points.
A reasonable expectation in 2020-21 would be 35-40 ES points and 20-25 PP points. Which would be a solid season.
His PP scoring will have a lot to do with Lindblom and Patrick and a new PP coach.
The ES scoring is more on him, especially if he stays with Couts.
Age curves suggest goal scoring falls off faster than assists.
It would be interesting to see velocity numbers, do over 30 players lose upper body strength and thus velocity on their shots (and like pitchers, do they then overcompensate, losing accuracy)?
Of course. The more shots that go in, the more points he has.
But what's most important is that he continues to get scoring chances at the rate he has been. Good and bad luck will come and go, but he's been very consistent with what he can control and is still playing at an extremely high level. 1st line quality, without a doubt.
It's just unfortunate that so many things outside of his control are screwing him over and then he has people lazily misevaluating him by making judgments based solely off of contextless end results.
Problem is his shooting % fluctuations don’t correlate to his age. But they do to his point totals.
Just going off what you posted. I am sure on ice shooting % is similar.
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