Kind of amazing how many diehard hockey fans haven't sorted out that results in hockey routinely don't match quality of play. Especially when a significant chunk of a sample size is spent with poor linemates.
It's a good idea, but I don't think it'll work. People still get ripped for things that aren't their fault all the time, even if they're not the captain.I have a plan. Let's sign Thompson for 8 years and make him the Captain.
The captain-bashers will stop ripping Giroux for things that aren't his fault. They'll stop ripping him for never meeting a standard they'll always keep just above his level of play no matter how well he does. And finally, they'll be completely baffled at their conflicting needs. On the one hand, they lust for players like Thompson and think they are somehow magical; on the other, he's the captain, so they have to hate him.
Giroux hasn't fallen off a cliff, but he is slowly declining.
He's been shooting more with gradually less success, Sh% 18.0%, 11.6%, 9.3%.
His ES TOI fell, 16:06, 16:12, 14:49.
However, his actual scoring the previous two years was a bit of a fluke:
GF/60 - xGF/60
4.04 - 2.72
3.93 - 2.73
2.93 - 2.66
Playoffs
1.53 - 2.09
So it's less about him falling off dramatically than his anomalous scoring coming back to earth, that is, his 2019-20 scoring is more representative of his actual play than the previous two seasons. (GF seems to be generally about 10% more than xGF). On the other hand, his playoff scoring was below expectations, suggesting bad puck luck
Adjusting his previous two seasons to account for his "surplus" scoring,
46, 43, 36 is his normalized scoring the last three seasons at ES.
Expectations should be based on this trend, not orange colored spectacles predicting a return to his anomalous scoring.
His PP scoring fell off as well:
GF/60 - xGF/60
10.73 - 9.29
6.86 - 8.97
7.82 - 6.97
Playoffs
4.27 - 7.73
Again, more bad puck luck in the playoffs.
Do you actually think every top forwards GF and xGF match up every season?
Year | Goals/60 | Individual Expected Goals/60 | Difference | Shots/60 | Shooting % | Individual Shot Attempts/60 | Individual High Danger Shot Attempts/60 |
09-10 | 0.48 | 0.64 | -0.16 | 5.86 | 8.25 | 10.76 | 2.96 |
10-11 | 0.72 | 0.61 | +0.11 | 6.27 | 11.40 | 10.84 | 2.86 |
11-12 | 1.00 | 0.74 | +0.26 | 8.57 | 11.61 | 15.49 | 3.87 |
12-13 | 0.52 | 0.52 | ------- | 7.31 | 7.06 | 14.35 | 1.72 |
13-14 | 0.81 | 0.56 | +0.15 | 6.96 | 11.68 | 13.41 | 2.39 |
14-15 | 0.54 | 0.65 | -0.11 | 9.24 | 5.85 | 16.41 | 2.46 |
15-16 | 0.72 | 0.54 | +0.18 | 7.92 | 9.09 | 13.57 | 2.33 |
16-17 | 0.31 | 0.40 | -0.09 | 5.89 | 5.31 | 10.38 | 1.67 |
17-18 | 1.08 | 0.49 | +0.59 | 6.06 | 17.89 | 11.18 | 2.26 |
18-19 | 0.78 | 0.48 | +0.30 | 7.31 | 10.67 | 13.70 | 2.14 |
19-20 | 0.69 | 0.61 | +0.08 | 8.18 | 8.46 | 13.21 | 2.96 |
If we look at individual statistics instead of on-ice statistics.
At 5v5
*red = post-surgery year[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Year Goals/60 Individual Expected
Goals/60 Difference Shots/60 Shooting % Individual Shot
Attempts/60 Individual High Danger
Shot Attempts/60 09-10 0.48 0.64 -0.16 5.86 8.25 10.76 2.96 10-11 0.72 0.61 +0.11 6.27 11.40 10.84 2.86 11-12 1.00 0.74 +0.26 8.57 11.61 15.49 3.87 12-13 0.52 0.52 ------- 7.31 7.06 14.35 1.72 13-14 0.81 0.56 +0.15 6.96 11.68 13.41 2.39 14-15 0.54 0.65 -0.11 9.24 5.85 16.41 2.46 15-16 0.72 0.54 +0.18 7.92 9.09 13.57 2.33 16-17 0.31 0.40 -0.09 5.89 5.31 10.38 1.67 17-18 1.08 0.49 +0.59 6.06 17.89 11.18 2.26 18-19 0.78 0.48 +0.30 7.31 10.67 13.70 2.14 19-20 0.69 0.61 +0.08 8.18 8.46 13.21 2.96
Not looking like there's much of a decline after all.
If we look at individual statistics instead of on-ice statistics.
At 5v5
*red = post-surgery year[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Year Goals/60 Individual Expected
Goals/60 Difference Shots/60 Shooting % Individual Shot
Attempts/60 Individual High Danger
Shot Attempts/60 09-10 0.48 0.64 -0.16 5.86 8.25 10.76 2.96 10-11 0.72 0.61 +0.11 6.27 11.40 10.84 2.86 11-12 1.00 0.74 +0.26 8.57 11.61 15.49 3.87 12-13 0.52 0.52 ------- 7.31 7.06 14.35 1.72 13-14 0.81 0.56 +0.15 6.96 11.68 13.41 2.39 14-15 0.54 0.65 -0.11 9.24 5.85 16.41 2.46 15-16 0.72 0.54 +0.18 7.92 9.09 13.57 2.33 16-17 0.31 0.40 -0.09 5.89 5.31 10.38 1.67 17-18 1.08 0.49 +0.59 6.06 17.89 11.18 2.26 18-19 0.78 0.48 +0.30 7.31 10.67 13.70 2.14 19-20 0.69 0.61 +0.08 8.18 8.46 13.21 2.96
Not looking like there's much of a decline after all.
What killed his point total was bad luck and the PP sabotage. Not his individual play. Same thing in the playoffs, where he was also great.
Year | Total Assists/60 (5v5) | First Assists/60 |
09-10 | 0.91 | 0.85 |
10-11 | 1.82 | 1.27 |
11-12 | 1.60 | 0.94 |
12-13 | 1.46 | 1.20 |
13-14 | 1.27 | 0.71 |
14-15 | 0.98 | 0.59 |
15-16 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
16-17 | 0.63 | 0.26 |
17-18 | 1.72 | 0.86 |
18-19 | 1.66 | 1.12 |
19-20 | 0.94 | 0.38 |
Year | Total Assists/60 |
09-10 | 3.45 |
10-11 | 2.64 |
11-12 | 6.37 |
12-13 | 5.07 |
13-14 | 5.84 |
14-15 | 5.16 |
15-16 | 4.19 |
16-17 | 5.08 |
17-18 | 5.68 |
18-19 | 4.37 |
19-20 | 3.63 |
Did players have lower shooting percentages with Giroux because he wasn't able to provide the passes he normally does....
Uh, you just supported my contention that Giroux's stats in 17-18 amd 18-19 were inflated compared to his "norm."
So if you want his baseline, you should discount those two seasons and use last season's scoring as more of his norm.
That is, he's a 35-40 point ES scorer, which is 2nd line level.
Nothing wrong with that for a 33 year old forward, but let's forget about 60 point seasons, that's history.
Plus, that bit of goal scoring luck in 18-19 was balanced out by the horrible PP luck they had to start the year (as I remember you pointing out before) and then the post-Hak coaching sabotage of putting him on the wrong side. Then this past season, the continued PP sabotage and the abysmal assist luck were a perfect storm of anti-scoring circumstances.Last year and the year before were identical from an underlying stats perspective...
18-19 he got a bit lucky.
19-20 he had abysmal luck.
In a "fair" world both are ~75-80 point seasons.
Last year and the year before were identical from an underlying stats perspective...
18-19 he got a bit lucky.
19-20 he had abysmal luck.
In a "fair" world both are ~75-80 point seasons.
Looking at the stats @Striiker posted. Shooting % seems to correlate directly with his higher point seasons.
Of course. The more shots that go in, the more points he has.Looking at the stats @Striiker posted. Shooting % seems to correlate directly with his higher point seasons.
Problem is his shooting % fluctuations don’t correlate to his age. But they do to his point totals.Age curves suggest goal scoring falls off faster than assists.
It would be interesting to see velocity numbers, do over 30 players lose upper body strength and thus velocity on their shots (and like pitchers, do they then overcompensate, losing accuracy)?
Just going off what you posted. I am sure on ice shooting % is similar.Of course. The more shots that go in, the more points he has.
But what's most important is that he continues to get scoring chances at the rate he has been. Good and bad luck will come and go, but he's been very consistent with what he can control and is still playing at an extremely high level. 1st line quality, without a doubt.
It's just unfortunate that so many things outside of his control are screwing him over and then he has people lazily misevaluating him by making judgments based solely off of contextless end results.