Chychrun’s Megathread V (poll added)

[JasonDemersWasOkay]

former late 1st-rounder but has 14 points in 107 career games.

Lias Andersson, not a late first rounder but the stats line up

 

[Mosby]

I still think it's Ottawa. Alex Formenton is the name to circle in my mind, both with him being an RFA still and with his name being tied to the Hockey Canada mess.

 

[Coyotes19c]

My prediction:

He starts the season here, has a decent first month, but tapers off by American Thanksgiving because of a nagging injury obtained from an innocuous play. Gets hurt again more seriously early in 2023, thereby making him immovable at the deadline. Plays a little in late March. Gets dealt on draft day for 2 2nds, a 3rd, and a player that was a former late 1st-rounder but has 14 points in 107 career games.

And I thought my prediction was worse case scenario holy moly. If that happens BA needs to be fired on the spot. Terrible asset management.

 

[JasonDemersWasOkay]

IF chychrun starts the season here, he will likely be traded immediately if he has a good first month. BA can’t sit around this season because he will undoubtedly get hurt, likely at the complete wrong time like last season.

If he starts hot he’s gone by thanksgiving

 

[Jakey53]

IF chychrun starts the season here, he will likely be traded immediately if he has a good first month. BA can’t sit around this season because he will undoubtedly get hurt, likely at the complete wrong time like last season.

If he starts hot he’s gone by thanksgiving

Maybe if Chych starts hot, and the team is making progress, Chych has a change of heart and wants to be here to see this through.

 

[lanky]

Maybe if Chych starts hot, and the team is making progress, Chych has a change of heart and wants to be here to see this through.

That's entirely possible.
His desire to be here more than Columbus, is a positive sign if that's the outcome you're hoping for.

 

[Heldig]

Explain his happiness at a possible Ottawa trade based on that?

He has family ties to Ottawa.

 

[Imaravencawcaw]

Oh yes, forgot about KS.
I think I'm going to subscribe. Kind of a no-brainer. $1. lol

Yea I get the $1 deal and the immediately cancel. When my sub runs out I wait for the $1 deal to come back. I only really read Down Goes Brown, Pronman, and Wheeler so I'm not paying full price to support Katie Strang among others.

 

[rt]

Yea I get the $1 deal and the immediately cancel. When my sub runs out I wait for the $1 deal to come back. I only really read Down Goes Brown, Pronman, and Wheeler so I'm not paying full price to support Katie Strang among others.

I’m waiting for Pronman and Wheeler to branch off on their own, maybe bringing Chris Peters and some others (Tony Ferrari) and make a draft/prospects only paysite. It feels inevitable.

 

[Imaravencawcaw]

I’m waiting for Pronman and Wheeler to branch off on their own, maybe bringing Chris Peters and some others (Tony Ferrari) and make a draft/prospects only paysite. It feels inevitable.

I do wonder if there's enough of an audience to support 4 writers who would need to travel as much as they do to provide their content. The Athletic has been on a steady decline since they started, so I see the inevitability sometime in the future when it finally circles the drain.

 

[rt]

Rank these Chychrun proposals:

A. Dumoulin, Poulin, Blomqvist, '23 1st, '23 2nd

B. Iafallo, Durzi, Vilardi, '23 1st

C. Zaitsev, Sogaard, Boucher, '23 1st, '23 2nd

 

[Mosby]

C, B, A

 

[Jagged Ice]

Ottawa is going to have the best '23 pick so-
1) Ottawa
2) Pitt
3) LA

CAB

 

[Kai Yo T]

C A B

 

[rt]

The more I let that Pens idea sink in, the more I like it.

Dumoulin strikes me as an idea dump. Pitt shouldn’t re-sign him and they can’t afford to sell him for an asset as a rental. They’d basically be keeping him as their own rental. But he’s overpaid at this point so that’s not great value. We can sell him at the deadline with retention and maybe get a 2nd.

Dumo is a much more appealing dump than Zaitsev. Zaitsev is really worth a negative 2nd for this season and another negative 2nd for next season. Meanwhile, Dumo is likely only a TDL retention slot burn away from netting a positive 2nd.

Poulin is a BA/Tourigny type prospect, for sure. Definitely not an elite prospect but a former 1st who’s value hasn’t really increased or decreased too much. Probably would be a little ahead of Doan as our 2nd best winger prospect (behind Guenther).

Boucher is a BA/Tourigny type of prosepct, too. But he's had more of a roller coaster development track than Poulin. I think his floor is a lot lower and is ceiling isn't tremendously higher. I give a slight edge to Poulin, but it's pretty close.

I like Sogaard better than Blomqvist and I like that Sogaard is closer. But Blomqvist has had pretty amazing Liiga stats and I think he's a fine goalie prospect. With secondary guys like this, one step behind the real elite goalie prospects, it's really a toss-up. Slight edge to Sogaard for me. North American experience, and shorter path to the NHL.

IMO:
Dumoulin, Poulin, Blomqvist > Zaitsev, Boucher, Sogaard

Now the Ottawa picks are more appealing than the Pittsburgh picks. No doubt. So much so to close the above gap? Yes, probably. Enough to eclipse it and flip the ">" to a "<"....ehhh...it's close. I think I'd say I find these two packages roughly equivalent.

 

[AZviaNJ]

Rank these Chychrun proposals:

A. Dumoulin, Poulin, Blomqvist, '23 1st, '23 2nd

B. Iafallo, Durzi, Vilardi, '23 1st

C. Zaitsev, Sogaard, Boucher, '23 1st, '23 2nd

I'd settle for C- at this point.
'23 1st,
'23 2nd or Boucher and
Zaitsev

Let's get a deal done please!!

 

[YotesFan47]

Rank these Chychrun proposals:

A. Dumoulin, Poulin, Blomqvist, '23 1st, '23 2nd

B. Iafallo, Durzi, Vilardi, '23 1st

C. Zaitsev, Sogaard, Boucher, '23 1st, '23 2nd

If you were to drop Bucher and the 2nd and make them Thomson, C by a large margin. The other 2 aren't very appealing to me but if I had to choose, I'd go LA, then PIT.

 

[rt]

If you were to drop Bucher and the 2nd and make them Thomson, C by a large margin. The other 2 aren't very appealing to me but if I had to choose, I'd go LA, then PIT.

I like Boucher and a 2nd a lot more than Thomson. I might have Boucher ahead of him. Kind of a toss up for me.

 

[YotesFan47]

I like Boucher and a 2nd a lot more than Thomson. I might have Boucher ahead of him. Kind of a toss up for me.

You were real high on Boucher his draft year. I'd imagine this feels a bit more like a buy low opportunity for you, or is that the wrong impression?

I think Thomson has the higher upside and potential to hit that upside, enough that I'd be willing to lose the 2nd to ensure the deal got done. Thinking he could be a right side OEL, though more low end 1d than high end 1d. I think he may have a 10g/y shot which is compelling.

 

[rt]

You were real high on Boucher his draft year. I'd imagine this feels a bit more like a buy low opportunity for you, or is that the wrong impression?

I think Thomson has the higher upside and potential to hit that upside, enough that I'd be willing to lose the 2nd to ensure the deal got done. Thinking he could be a right side OEL, though more low end 1d than high end 1d. I think he may have a 10g/y shot which is compelling.

I wasn’t 10th overall high on Boucher. Maybe 25th. His stock has dropped. Justifiably so. I’m not that high on Lassi Thomson. He gives me major NPC or “just a guy” vibes. I’d rather have Kleven, personally. But his free agent status makes me nervous. Behind the big three Ottawa prospects, I have Kleven and Sogaard in a tier. Then the rest are in a big pile for me. Boucher is at the top of that pile but not at all far ahead of Jarventie, Thomson or Ostapchuk, as examples.

 

[YotesFan47]

I wasn’t 10th overall high on Boucher. Maybe 25th. His stock has dropped. Justifiably so. I’m not that high on Lassi Thomson. He gives me major NPC or “just a guy” vibes. I’d rather have Kleven, personally. But his free agent status makes me nervous. Behind the big three Ottawa prospects, I have Kleven and Sogaard in a tier. Then the rest are in a big pile for me. Boucher is at the top of that pile but not at all far ahead of Jarventie, Thomson or Ostapchuk, as examples.

Gotcha. I thought you had him around 15-20 so I figured you saw a good opportunity to get him for less due to his weaker showing this last year. I like him as a prospect, there are just players in Ottawa's system I like more.

 

[Half Clapper]

BA will wait until the deadline when teams will be more desperate. Hopefully by then Chych will be playing like he was 2 seasons ago and the team won't be selling him at low value.

 

[cobra427]

BA will wait until the deadline when teams will be more desperate. Hopefully by then Chych will be playing like he was 2 seasons ago and the team won't be selling him at low value.

Or Chych hold out then comes back and plays poorly because he is discontented, then gets injured again and his value goes down some more. His value a year ago>TDL>draft>this summer>TDL>next summer. The chances of his value going up from here are very slim but going down further are high. I hope I am wrong.

 

[Heldig]

Rank these Chychrun proposals:

A. Dumoulin, Poulin, Blomqvist, '23 1st, '23 2nd

B. Iafallo, Durzi, Vilardi, '23 1st

C. Zaitsev, Sogaard, Boucher, '23 1st, '23 2nd

C, B then A for me.

 

[Jakey53]

Or Chych hold out then comes back and plays poorly because he is discontented, then gets injured again and his value goes down some more. His value a year ago>TDL>draft>this summer>TDL>next summer. The chances of his value going up from here are very slim but going down further are high. I hope I am wrong.

Chych will not sit or hold out. There is no benefit for him if he sits out. IF he wasn't hurt last year he may have had much more leverage, but other GM's I think are being cautious, (and that could be why you haven't see a deal yet,) until Chych plays this year. IF Chych still wants out, he might have to play his way out. Sitting at home only helps the Coyotes tank.