Chychrun’s Megathread III

[jmelm]

Might as well throw Crouse into the trade speculation along with Chychrun....at least until he is offered and signs a new deal with the Coyotes.

I certainly hope not. I'd like to see him sign an 8 year deal personally.

 

[jmelm]

I would require Neighbours AND Bolduc AND the 1st. If you want to move next years 1st instead, that’s fine. I’d be okay with a condition that moves it to ‘24 if you don’t make the WCF in ‘23 too. And obviously you can add a dump like Scandella.

EDIT: I’m actually okay with it just being a ‘24 1st if that’s easier for the Blues to handle. Yotes already have three 2nds in ‘24 and I’m thinking they’re using those assets as a war-chest to start improving the roster down the road.

No way STL trades all 3 of those pieces for JC. I could see one of those 2 + a 1st.

They're in the midst of a transition from the older guys who won't be around long term (like Tarasenko) or their offensive leaders long term (Perron, Schenn) and are handing the torch to those younger players.

I think if STL was offering their 2023 first (deeper draft) + our choice of Neighbours/Bolduc, that would be VERY tempting.

Krug was injured and they can re-sign Leddy, and also look to trade for a much less expensive player like Brian Dumoulin from Pittsburgh. They don't need the LD they'd like to add to be an offensive Dman. They just want to add some size and depth on that side. So while Chychrun would be fantastic for them, he's probably a luxury they can't afford. We know that JC will require an $8-9M salary on his next deal and STL has 3 Dmen making $6.5M long term already and they need to save room for big extensions to Kyrou, Thomas and others.

The only way I could see something with STL that would make sense for them is if they can get meaningful futures for Tarasenko and then parlay that into a JC package. But no way they give up both Bolduc + Neighbours.

 

[jmelm]

The benefit of Chychrun is offense. So there’s that to consider.

Of course, but he's not like a Makar or Josi, or even Quinn Hughes, in that he's DRIVING offense or going to put up 70 points.

They really need someone who's got high end offensive talent at the F position, like a JT Miller or Kadri (to use older examples). So if they could acquire a F via UFA without giving up assets, then I could see them trading for JC. But if they can only make one big trade, it will be for a forward with high end skill (like Tarasenko or Miller).

 

[jmelm]

To Tor
Capobianco (contract)

To ARI
Mrazek (dump)
Sandin

Toronto won't give up Sandin for nothing or in a Mrazek dump. The Mrazek buyout is not that onerous to give up a player of that caliber.

If Sandin moves (as opposed to Muzzin), they will get some positive return for him. Perhaps a deal could be made with us if we were sending either pick #34 or #36 back the other way, but I'm not sure if one second would be enough for them, as opposed to just buying out Mrazek and trading Sandin for 2 second round picks or one 1st rounder from another team.

So do we like Sandin enough to send, say one of our 2nds + our 3rd the other way? To me, it all depends on just how high our staff projects guys like Kolyachonok and Moser to play. If they feel Sandin has higher upside than both (like a top pairing #2 type), I could see them sending more assets for him. But if they feel Sandin is more of a #4 second pairing guy and have Moser and Koly projected in the same range, then I don't think Sandin is the player they'd spend assets on.

 

[rt]

Of course, but he's not like a Makar or Josi, or even Quinn Hughes, in that he's DRIVING offense or going to put up 70 points.

They really need someone who's got high end offensive talent at the F position, like a JT Miller or Kadri (to use older examples). So if they could acquire a F via UFA without giving up assets, then I could see them trading for JC. But if they can only make one big trade, it will be for a forward with high end skill (like Tarasenko or Miller).

On a good team, I don’t see why Chychrun couldn’t be a 20g 60p defender if he’s healthy. We’ve seen that level before when he had support in OEL and Goligoski. On a team like Carolina, it’s even more insulation. I think NJD is ideal for this because he doesn’t have to compete with Hamilton and they’ve got two solid partner options besides.

 

[Jakey53]

I certainly hope not. I'd like to see him sign an 8 year deal personally.

There is no way I give Crouse 8 yrs.

 

[Jamieh]

There is no way I give Crouse 8 yrs.

How about 8 times $1 million? Is that a way?

 

[Puck possession wins]

We don’t need anymore picks for this draft.

Any Chychrun trade has to include a 2023 1st.

We need multiple picks in the first two rounds of the draft next year.

 

[Jakey53]

How about 8 times $1 million? Is that a way?

You know he will get more than that, way more.

 

[jmelm]

On a good team, I don’t see why Chychrun couldn’t be a 20g 60p defender if he’s healthy. We’ve seen that level before when he had support in OEL and Goligoski. On a team like Carolina, it’s even more insulation. I think NJD is ideal for this because he doesn’t have to compete with Hamilton and they’ve got two solid partner options besides.

I'm not diminishing JC's overall offensive output or numbers potential, it's more about the fact that he's not a primary play-driving, playmaking type Dman from the back end who plays that new age style of a Makar, Hughes or Josi. Those guys are really driving play and don't play a typical Dman type game, but rather more of a rover style and leading the rush.

That is the kind of player CAR needs to fill their most overt need, and that's why they will prioritize a F. And so while I could be wrong, I don't see CAR being able to pull of TWO huge trades for a F (like Fiala, Meier, Miller) as well as a JC trade. But like I said, if they can acquire a top F or two via UFA (Kadri, etc.) then they absolutely can look at having those trade assets going to a Dman like Chychrun.

I hope that makes sense.

 

[Jamieh]

You know he will get more than that, way more.

To quote Jakey "you don't know that"!!!

 

[moosemeister]

We don’t need anymore picks for this draft.

Any Chychrun trade has to include a 2023 1st.

We need multiple picks in the first two rounds of the draft next year.

Agreed. I'm not looking at a 2022 pick. I'm looking at the 2023 picks for Chychrun. We'll probably get a 2nd for Ghost, but we could pull an extra first for Chychrun.

 

[Coyotedroppings]

I'm not diminishing JC's overall offensive output or numbers potential, it's more about the fact that he's not a primary play-driving, playmaking type Dman from the back end who plays that new age style of a Makar, Hughes or Josi. Those guys are really driving play and don't play a typical Dman type game, but rather more of a rover style and leading the rush.

That is the kind of player CAR needs to fill their most overt need, and that's why they will prioritize a F. And so while I could be wrong, I don't see CAR being able to pull of TWO huge trades for a F (like Fiala, Meier, Miller) as well as a JC trade. But like I said, if they can acquire a top F or two via UFA (Kadri, etc.) then they absolutely can look at having those trade assets going to a Dman like Chychrun.

I hope that makes sense.

My man.... he's not GMJC and certainly not Jesus Christ. You're getting my pet peeve meter all riled up! LOL

 

[moosemeister]

Anyone also think there could be something had around Edmonton?

Kassian, a pick, Holloway and Broberg?

Edit: also take on the contract for Klefbom.

 

[moosemeister]

Keller - Holloway - Schmaltz
Crouse - Hayton - Smith
Ritchie - Boyd - Kassian
McCartney - McBain - Fischer

Broberg - Soderstrom
Ghost - Timmins
Koly - Mayo

 

[jmelm]

Anyone also think there could be something had around Edmonton?

Kassian, a pick, Holloway and Broberg?

Edit: also take on the contract for Klefbom.

Not in a million years. Holloway and Broberg are literally their golden children, and refused to give them up in any other deals.

The Kassian buyout is really quite cheap (only $650K next year). So a 2nd rounder at most is what I could see them giving up.

They cannot afford to give up Broberg, who will play on the team next year and take over Keith's spot the year after that. They have a lot of money coming off the books this year, next year, and the year after.

The other thing I could see them doing is maybe moving on from Puljujarvi if things get tight.

But seeing the COL team they're playing kill them with their overall team speed, EDM is not going to move Broberg and Holloway who are elite skaters at their positions.

 

[Nowotny]

Holloway is a very good young player but he had serious wrist injury:fracture and probably subsequent necrosis of scaphoid bone.First surgery was unsuccessful and he needed second with implant (either titanium or bone graft).Scaphoid fractures can be difficult to heal not to mention that being a hockey player increases risk of re-injuring it.

 

[lanky]

Holloway is a very good young player but he had serious wrist injury:fracture and probably subsequent necrosis of scaphoid bone.First surgery was unsuccessful and he needed second with implant (either titanium or bone graft).Scaphoid fractures can be difficult to heal not to mention that being a hockey player increases risk of re-injuring it.

My friend spent years in a cast waiting for his scaphoid fracture to heal. However Holloway didn't need to. He came back from injury and played well this season. Generally once a broken bone is healed it will be stronger than it was initially. Without knowing more than that I have no concerns over his injury.

I like Holloway but I don't really covet him. He seems to fit into a Lawson Crouse mold. He's not as big as Crouse but he brings intensity more than Crouse did at the same age.

 

[Heldig]

Holloway is a very good young player but he had serious wrist injury:fracture and probably subsequent necrosis of scaphoid bone.First surgery was unsuccessful and he needed second with implant (either titanium or bone graft).Scaphoid fractures can be difficult to heal not to mention that being a hockey player increases risk of re-injuring it.

He should be able to play with it but it will hurt and will be arthritic before he is 40.

 

[Nowotny]

My friend spent years in a cast waiting for his scaphoid fracture to heal. However Holloway didn't need to. He came back from injury and played well this season. Generally once a broken bone is healed it will be stronger than it was initially. Without knowing more than that I have no concerns over his injury.

I like Holloway but I don't really covet him. He seems to fit into a Lawson Crouse mold. He's not as big as Crouse but he brings intensity more than Crouse did at the same age.

Based what I red his fracture didn't heal.That is why he needed second surgery that included grafting and no ...his scaphoid bone will not be stronger then it was initially.Scaphoid bone fractures tent to have a problem with blood supply resulting in non-union or necrosis

 

[jmelm]

Can someone remind me how we got into Holloway again? I definitely don't see EDM having the assets or cap space to be a trading partner for Chychrun anyway.

 

[jmelm]

We don’t need anymore picks for this draft.

Any Chychrun trade has to include a 2023 1st.

We need multiple picks in the first two rounds of the draft next year.

I would agree that we don’t need any more LATE picks in this years draft (like very late 1st/2nd round or beyond).

So if we’re talking about a team like STL who’s picking late this year, I want their 2023 1st.

But we know a team like ANA might be interested in JC, and they have 10th overall. We know that NYI is looking for a LD to play with Dobson and they have 13th. Ditto with CLB at 12.

So if we’re able to get a pick in the 10-13 range, I’d certainly be interested in that because there’s going to be some great Dmen (Korchinski/Mintyukov/Pickering/Rinzel) and some higher tier forwards thag we have no chance of getting with our late 1st round picks.

 

[Puck possession wins]

But we know a team like ANA might be interested in JC, and they have 10th overall. We know that NYI is looking for a LD to play with Dobson and they have 13th. Ditto with CLB at 12.

So if we’re able to get a pick in the 10-13 range, I’d certainly be interested in that because there’s going to be some great Dmen

We need as many selections as possible over the next two drafts.

The 2022 and 2023 drafts will define our re-re-rebuild.

I get trading Chychrun for a top 15 pick in this draft is doable. I also get that we can grab a quality player with that pick. A quality player to replace Chychrun in this draft would be nice, I won’t deny that. However, the more picks we have next year (in a deeper draft) along with what we currently have stockpiled, will help us in the long run.

Guys that you will find in the top 15 picks this year, will be available in the 20’s next year with how loaded the 2023 draft is.

I want us to have at minimum 2 first rounders, 2 second rounders and 3 third rounders next year (4 third rounders would be nice, but Ladd will be on the roster this fall, so we won’t get that Islanders pick).

Having 15 picks over the first three rounds of the next two drafts will set the course for our rebuild. Those picks provide us with plenty of flexibility on who we can draft.

 

[jmelm]

We need as many selections as possible over the next two drafts.

The 2022 and 2023 drafts will define our re-re-rebuild.

I get trading Chychrun for a top 15 pick in this draft is doable. I also get that we can grab a quality player with that pick. A quality player to replace Chychrun in this draft would be nice, I won’t deny that. However, the more picks we have next year (in a deeper draft) along with what we currently have stockpiled, will help us in the long run.

Guys that you will find in the top 15 picks this year, will be available in the 20’s next year with how loaded the 2023 draft is.

I want us to have at minimum 2 first rounders, 2 second rounders and 3 third rounders next year (4 third rounders would be nice, but Ladd will be on the roster this fall, so we won’t get that Islanders pick).

Having 15 picks over the first three rounds of the next two drafts will set the course for our rebuild. Those picks provide us with plenty of flexibility on who we can draft.

Respectfully, that's just a bit of an over-simplification to say as a blanket statement that guys available higher this year will be available lower in the draft next year, or that picks higher up this year won't have as much value to us as more picks next year.

I know that next year's draft is considered a deeper draft as a consensus view, but the reality is our scouts will have players they like and are available in the 10-13 range I mentioned rated VERY differently than those who are expected to be there in the #27 & #31-32 range of our late firsts.

You also have to keep in mind that a lot of prospects this year are somewhat devalued because of the effects of Covid on their development. We might be looking at guys like Korchinski/PIckering/Mintyukov on D (for example) and some of the other forwards very differently than if they played a full year last year. Korchinski and Mintyukov could end up being #1 Dmen. Ditto for Sam Rinzel. Pickering has been compared to Jacob Slavin.

A forward like Yurov (if available in those spots) or those Dmen I mentioned could be really special players. Yurov is a top 10 pick if not for the current Russian factor. If our scouts like Rinzel and Pickering and think they're top pairing or high end 2nd pairing types, who's to say that a 6'4 Dman who fits that same description will be available next year with a pick when we don't even know what number that pick will be.

Moreover, getting a pick in 2022 and 2023 are not mutually exlusive. As @rt has proposed, in an LA trade we could target both their 2022 + 2023 1st round picks and a prospect. All 4 of the teams mentioned (ANA, CLB, NYI and LAK) all have their 1st rounders and their 2nd rounders for next year. So there's still plenty of opportunity to build a package around 1st & 2nd round picks in addition to another 1st rounder this year in a trade with any one of those teams.

And there's still pently of opportunity to take on bad contracts and make other deals to get more assets for 2023 & 2024 besides the JC trade.

 

[JasonDemersWasOkay]

It’s a little bit curious to me how quiet everything is on the chychrun front. I know things will come to a head after the playoffs end and in the lead up to the draft, but we are seeing other teams’ business starting to come out via Friedman and marek, and they were super on top of the chychrun business before