Chevy...Please sign Wheeler to Extension before Camp!

[1stDan]

Wheeler is a heart and soul guy with a ton of skill.

His shoes will not be easy to fill

 

[Halberdier]

The dilema with Wheeler is, his position as a winger is that Jets biggest strength.
And your up and coming franchise player is a rw also.

That will be very hard to sign 2rw at more than 7M each.

Plus you have your top 2 lw at 6M each.

Actually the problem isn't that they are both RW, but the problem is there are too much LW talent and not enough RW talent, as Laine is LW, as well as Connor and Ehlers. And also Perreault, and then Vesalainen. Ehlers has been RW also, but as Maurice hesitates to put even the arguably best shooting winger in the Earth his "triggerman side", I don't think he likes the idea of putting Ehlers RW.

Possible TOP-6-9 LWs:

Laine
Ehlers
Connor
Perreault

Vesalainen

Possible TOP-6-9 RWs:

Wheeler
Laine (Future LW)
(Ehlers)
Roslovic? (Future center, maybe next season)

I have seen Petan playing RW, though not sure if he makes it into TOP-6.

 

[PhilJets]

Actually the problem isn't that they are both RW, but the problem is there are too much LW talent and not enough RW talent, as Laine is LW, as well as Connor and Ehlers. And also Perreault, and then Vesalainen. Ehlers has been RW also, but as Maurice hesitates to put even the arguably best shooting winger in the Earth his "triggerman side", I don't think he likes the idea of putting Ehlers RW.

Possible TOP-6-9 LWs:

Laine
Ehlers
Connor
Perreault

Vesalainen

Possible TOP-6-9 RWs:

Wheeler
Laine (Future LW)
(Ehlers)
Roslovic? (Future center, maybe next season)

I have seen Petan playing RW,

Thats what i meant.

And Wheeler for sure is not dropping down to 3rd line.

Cant put 26M plus for 4 wingers.

Well you can but other areas will probaly suffer.

Like some suggestion to lose some defense.
Which is not a good idea.

 

[Trilliann]

The Jets will have to part ways with somebody (likely more than one somebody) to afford the rest fo the group.

My assumption is that Trouba will need to be traded, as he will not sign a long term extension in Winnipeg. I may be wrong, but I would say it's 85-15 in favour of him being dealt.

I'm just not sure that is enough cap space. Trouba leaving gets you $5 million...Myers gets you another $5.5 mil...Chariot is $1.4 mil. If you want to let Kulikov go, that gets you one season at $4.3, but somebody has to fill those three D-spots.

Laine might be $8 million, Morrissey at $5+, Wheeler will easily be $6+ (more if he wants to push it), and you just had Connor score 30 as a rookie. If he goes for 35 this year, he could be another $5-6 million. And you still have to sign Roslovic the year after that. If he is your 2C at that point, he is not making less than $5 million either (and likely more).

Someone in that previous paragraph will need to go, even if everyone in the paragraph before does as well. The only good news is that the return for any of them (outside of Chariot and Kulikov) should be tremendous. Heck, even a solid third pairing D-man can get a second rounder and a B-prospect.

In order to remain competitive, the Jets will need to keep high quality ELC players coming onto the roster on a regular basis. That means finding ways to add first round picks or top flight prospects every year.

Count me among those who also believe that winning in the NHL will a player making $10 million is exceedingly hard. Rounding out a roster with one (or certainly two) such players is extreemly hard. Chicago hasn't been able to do it. I don't see Edmonton getting it done with McD and Drai making $20 million. Toronto needs to win this year with Matthews still on his ELC, because they will have to shed talent to sign him, the two other youngsters and keep Tavares.

I could write a whole post on why it might be Laine that makes the most sense to trade, but I'll just toss in that grenade and quietly walk away

Last 3 cup winners had a 9.5M player though. So obviously you give Laine 9.5

 

[Trinity]

As much as I love Wheeler, I really hope we don't re-sign him. A contract that starts at age 33 is a huge risk. Maybe a 3 year deal, but that's it. I'd fully expect him to reject a 3 year deal so that's why I say move on. Chevy needs to think logically here and not emotionally or based on relationships.

 

[Trinity]

Found this interesting, Joe Thornton has been signing 3 year deals since 27 years old up until this past off-season.

in 2010 he signed a deal at 31 for 3yearsx7M. He was coming three straight PPG years of 96, 86 and 89 pts. Was 11.78% of cap

in 2014 at age 34, he signed a 3x6.75M deal (9.78% of cap), and was coming off years of 77, 40 (lockout - 68pt pace), and 76. He is the only guy I could find around Wheeler's age that had any semblance of his production in the years leading up to his deal.

That'd be the ideal for Wheeler contract. At 3 years I'd support an extension.

 

[Cellee]

I doubt he re-signs here. Which is a shame. Best Jet of 2.0

 

[Bristo]

I want to see 3 years, and I think he'd sign under 7 to stay. If he wants to win we're his best shot, and he gives us our best shot by taking a very friendly number in order to make room for the other guys we need in addition to him. Only way it works.

 

[DRW204]

That'd be the ideal for Wheeler contract. At 3 years I'd support an extension.

3 x 8M?

 

[Halberdier]

3 x 8M?

Isn't it too much for the available cap space? I fear it is, unless you bridge about everyone, which will backfire.

 

[KingBogo]

Put me in the need to keep Wheeler group, but he wouldn't be my 1st signing. After getting Morrissey signed so he can play this season Chevy's next step IMO is to work on getting Laine extended for 8 years at whatever that takes. Hopefully winning is more important to him then squeezing out every last penny. Only then to you got about getting other players signed. Preferably Connor on a long term and then deal with the Trouba situation. Either signed long term or traded. Then you go to Wheeler with your best 3-4 year offer based on what can be squeezed under the cap with the appreciation this would still necessitate further moves. IMO the young core has to be Chevy's priority, no matter how valuable Wheeler is today.

 

[Gm0ney]

Put me in the need to keep Wheeler group, but he wouldn't be my 1st signing. After getting Morrissey signed so he can play this season Chevy's next step IMO is to work on getting Laine extended for 8 years at whatever that takes. Hopefully winning is more important to him then squeezing out every last penny. Only then to you got about getting other players signed. Preferably Connor on a long term and then deal with the Trouba situation. Either signed long term or traded. Then you go to Wheeler with your best 3-4 year offer based on what can be squeezed under the cap with the appreciation this would still necessitate further moves. IMO the young core has to be Chevy's priority, no matter how valuable Wheeler is today.

If you get all those guys signed, there's not going to be much left for Wheeler. I don't know if the Jets can afford a 3 or 4 year deal at what Wheeler's worth. If he's willing to go longer term/team friendly for comparable money (4 x $8M = 8 x $4M, front load, signing bonuses in to protect the late year value against buyout), then I'd look at that...$4M will be chump change in terms of cap in 5 years, if your first reaction is "I don't want to be on the hook for all that when Wheeler's 38-41!"

 

[KingBogo]

If you get all those guys signed, there's not going to be much left for Wheeler. I don't know if the Jets can afford a 3 or 4 year deal at what Wheeler's worth. If he's willing to go longer term/team friendly for comparable money (4 x $8M = 8 x $4M, front load, signing bonuses in to protect the late year value against buyout), then I'd look at that...$4M will be chump change in terms of cap in 5 years, if your first reaction is "I don't want to be on the hook for all that when Wheeler's 38-41!"

Agreed it will be tough to keep Wheeler, but IMO the Jets can't lose more pieces of their young core as it looks like Trouba is as good as gone after this season. Once the young core is secured you move out the likes of MP, Kuli if there is a taker and let Myers walk if he doesn't sign a team friendly deal. Maybe you find a way to move Little? But you deal with these problems with Scheif, Laine, Ehlers, Connor, Morrissey, Rosie and Helly locked up long term.

 

[SLAYER]

If you get all those guys signed, there's not going to be much left for Wheeler. I don't know if the Jets can afford a 3 or 4 year deal at what Wheeler's worth. If he's willing to go longer term/team friendly for comparable money (4 x $8M = 8 x $4M, front load, signing bonuses in to protect the late year value against buyout), then I'd look at that...$4M will be chump change in terms of cap in 5 years, if your first reaction is "I don't want to be on the hook for all that when Wheeler's 38-41!"

While it's true, 4*8 = 8*4, it won't work like that for NHL contracts. After the 4 year contract @ 8 mil is up, Wheeler can probably find another contract at a similar or slightly lower AAV, certainly not 4 mil.

 

[heilongjetsfan]

Wheeler has earned his money. He is currently one of the premier RW in the league and as such he deserves to get paid. To get it done I don't think the Jets can afford a salary over 8 per year for a shorter 3 or 4 year contract, but perhaps a lower average annual value over a longer term with bigger signing bonuses each year would be a way to make it work, perhaps in the region of 6 to 6.25 over 6, or 5.5 over 7 years. The last few years on the contract may be in declining years of production for Wheeler, but it's a bit of a loyalty reward for being such an integral part of the build in Winnipeg.

This is my inclination as well. I'd prefer to sign him around 6m for 7 years, knowing that he's likely to be a valuable player for at least the first 4 years and that in all likelihood, either he retires before the contract ends or the cap has gone up enough that 6m is an overpayment, but not so bad as to cause serious cap issues.

 

[Gm0ney]

While it's true, 4*8 = 8*4, it won't work like that for NHL contracts. After the 4 year contract @ 8 mil is up, Wheeler can probably find another contract at a similar or slightly lower AAV, certainly not 4 mil.

Wheeler's leaving money on the table for sure - but I don't see the Jets being able to find $7M or $8M over the next 4 seasons without a significant sacrifice somewhere. It'd be super team friendly...maybe his best shot to win a Cup.

 

[Whileee]

If you get all those guys signed, there's not going to be much left for Wheeler. I don't know if the Jets can afford a 3 or 4 year deal at what Wheeler's worth. If he's willing to go longer term/team friendly for comparable money (4 x $8M = 8 x $4M, front load, signing bonuses in to protect the late year value against buyout), then I'd look at that...$4M will be chump change in terms of cap in 5 years, if your first reaction is "I don't want to be on the hook for all that when Wheeler's 38-41!"

I agree that it makes sense for the Jets to go longer term and lower AAV for Wheeler. The best window is in the next 2-3 seasons, so load up now and absorb the cap issues later, when the cap has inflated. If he would sign for 7-8 years at $4-5 million AAV than think that works well for the Jets.

 

[KingBogo]

I agree that it makes sense for the Jets to go longer term and lower AAV for Wheeler. The best window is in the next 2-3 seasons, so load up now and absorb the cap issues later, when the cap has inflated. If he would sign for 7-8 years at $4-5 million AAV than think that works well for the Jets.

Just don't see Wheeler or any player signing that type of deal. Far too much under his market value. He could get $7+ M now for 3-4 years and then more than likely still sign somewhere for $4 - 5 M.

4 X $7.5 M, would be Wheeler's hometown discount. After that pay him market value on 1-2 year contracts. Ends his career happily as a Jet, hopefully with a couple cups in hand.

 

[Whileee]

Just don't see Wheeler or any player signing that type of deal. Far too much under his market value. He could get $7+ M now for 3-4 years and then more than likely still sign somewhere for $4 - 5 M.

4 X $7.5 M, would be Wheeler's hometown discount. After that pay him market value on 1-2 year contracts. Ends his career happily as a Jet, hopefully with a couple cups in hand.

You might be right. At this career stage Wheeler is probably looking at his total earnings to his career end. It's a matter of how it's distributed between term and AAV. It works best for the Jets to have a lower AAV and longer term. That might work for Wheeler, too.

 

[KingBogo]

You might be right. At this career stage Wheeler is probably looking at his total earnings to his career end. It's a matter of how it's distributed between term and AAV. It works best for the Jets to have a lower AAV and longer term. That might work for Wheeler, too.

But wouldn't career earnings be maximized by getting paid now as a top 10 winger rather than settle for a salary far below that standing? Wheeler no doubt believes he can play to 40 y/o so why get paid only $36 M (8 X 4.5) between now and then when he can get paid $48 M by going 4 X 7.5 + 4 X 4.5. And this is still being generous to the Jets. Likely he could easily push to the $40 M on a 5 year deal. Another season like he just had someone pays him 5 X $8M on the open market despite his age.

 

[Pongs21]

Have a feeling he resigns at 7.9 x 4

 

[Whileee]

But wouldn't career earnings be maximized by getting paid now as a top 10 winger rather than settle for a salary far below that standing? Wheeler no doubt believes he can play to 40 y/o so why get paid only $36 M (8 X 4.5) between now and then when he can get paid $48 M by going 4 X 7.5 + 4 X 4.5. And this is still being generous to the Jets. Likely he could easily push to the $40 M on a 5 year deal. Another season like he just had someone pays him 5 X $8M on the open market despite his age.

You're probably right. I think that he'll be looking for something around $40 million or more for the remainder of his career, but the risk starts to rise quickly now for him that his production and health could make him much less attractive in a few years. Betting on yourself at 24 or 25 is much different than betting on yourself at 36 or 37, even for a well-conditioned athlete like Wheeler.

I think in the past I've suggested something in the $40-45M zone on a long-term deal. But for the Jets it would be better to spread that over 7 years than 5 years. By next season the Jets will have a good portion of their core locked up, so I think that as long as they are able to manage their cap room in the next 2-3 years, managing Wheeler's contract in the longer term will become less of an issue because they won't have as many players to find space for. If the Jets could get Wheeler signed for $7.0M or less and it takes a 6 year deal, then that's probably better than $8M + on a shorter deal.

 

[jepjepjoo]

Wheeler had a career year because of Jets PP. His value is now higher than ever so there's no point in signing him before the training camp. I don't see Wheeler topping this years numbers unless they play Laine-Scheifele-Wheeler(I think that line could produce 100pts each, call me crazy). Last year was an anomaly and I think that if he signs somewhere else for a crazy amount of money, he will disappoint. There is not a single team in the league with the same quality shooting options as the Jets have on their PP.

2015-2016 EV: 21g 55pts PP: 3g 17pts (last career high)
2017-2018 EV: 17g 49pts PP: 6g 40pts

Career PP points
5
8
5
2
3
15
7
19
12
17
21
40

 

[Daximus]

When you crunch the numbers it really does not work. I think we are in for some cap issues no matter how you slice the pie. Perreault, Myers, Wheeler could potentially all be gone if Trouba stays. If Trouba goes it's probably Wheeler or Myers staying. I think Perreault is gone either way. We're really screwed if Roslovic or Niku break out and ask for a decent raise after their ELCs.

Holy crap what a spoil of riches.

 

[Halberdier]

When you crunch the numbers it really does not work. I think we are in for some cap issues no matter how you slice the pie. Perreault, Myers, Wheeler could potentially all be gone if Trouba stays. If Trouba goes it's probably Wheeler or Myers staying. I think Perreault is gone either way. We're really screwed if Roslovic or Niku break out and ask for a decent raise after their ELCs.

Holy crap what a spoil of riches.

Yeah, and in addition to Roslovic & Niku, just think for a second if Connor puts up 70+ points and then Vesalainen makes a strong breakout season...

Though Vesalainen is still completely unproven.

Let's say all these 4 break out big time, and I don't think that you can keep any of Perreault, Wheeler and Myers. Though if myers accepts a significant paycut, he can be a steal.