Cheer for the Islander tank or not?

[Jim Bob]

I think its interesting some of the replies. So you would trade the Sabres top 5 pick this year for an unknown 2015 1st?

It all depends on what team you are trading with.

If it's a team that looks headed towards a top 5 pick in 2015, then sure!

The reason this is an interesting discussion is because of two factors:

1) 2015 has a "generational talent" in McDavid and 2014 doesn't
2) Most people expect the 2015 draft class to be deeper at the top than the 2014 draft class.

It would be a very different discussion if you were talking trading a top 2013 pick for a future pick in 2014, for example.

 

[Sabre Dance]

What does this have to do with the original point that teams are reluctant to move future 1st round picks?

I think it would be the opposite, teams are reluctant to trade for future 1st round picks. Obviously we are talking trades that are at the deadline, and not before or early in the season.

if you are making a trade with a bottom 5 team, a GM that hasnt already said publicly we will suffer would take that possible top 5 pick.

 

[Sabre Dance]

It all depends on what team you are trading with.

If it's a team that looks headed towards a top 5 pick in 2015, then sure!

The reason this is an interesting discussion is because of two factors:

1) 2015 has a "generational talent" in McDavid and 2014 doesn't
2) Most people expect the 2015 draft class to be deeper at the top than the 2014 draft class.

It would be a very different discussion if you were talking trading a top 2013 pick for a future pick in 2014, for example.

I still think a team would have to throw a prospect or maybe a 2nd round pick into the discussion. I mean thats a huge risk. So much parity in the NHL makes it hard to predict.

 

[Beerz]

Its funny... in the NBA its entirely different... Draft picks are garbage... Anything outside a lottery pick doesn't hold much value.


Baseball i don't think you see draft picks moved at all very much anymore.

 

[dotcommunism]

I think it would be the opposite, teams are reluctant to trade for future 1st round picks.

The two are not mutually exclusive

Baseball i don't think you see draft picks moved at all very much anymore.

Picks (outside of a very limited number of competitive balance picks which didn't exist before the current CBA) can't be traded in baseball

 

[Beerz]

The two are not mutually exclusive



Picks (outside of a very limited number of competitive balance picks which didn't exist before the current CBA) can't be traded in baseball

So that just started with the last CBA?

 

[Jim Bob]

I still think a team would have to throw a prospect or maybe a 2nd round pick into the discussion. I mean thats a huge risk. So much parity in the NHL makes it hard to predict.

I would trade the 5th pick in 2014 for the Panthers' 2015 1st straight up, for example.

 

[stokes84]

If they defer, both 1st and 2nd rounder are for next year?

 

[Jim Bob]

So that just started with the last CBA?

Not being able to trade draft picks has been an MLB rule for a looong time, IIRC.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...e-for-allowing-mlb-teams-to-trade-draft-picks

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ck-trading-would-impact-mlbs-balance-of-power

 

[stokes84]

I would trade the 5th pick in 2014 for the Panthers' 2015 1st straight up, for example.

I wouldn't. There are too many variables. Panthers have a ton of young talent and could easily take the leap Colorado took.

 

[sjci]

It's not just McDavid that makes 2015 look great.

Eichel, Strome, and Barzal are all possible franchise players.

 

[couture23]

If they defer, both 1st and 2nd rounder are for next year?

No, the 2nd is in 2015 regardless.

 

[Moskau]

The thing with trading future 1st rounders and why it isn't done in the NHL is the way players progress. Look at Drouin for example. He wasn't even inside the top 10 on most major rankings prior to the beginning of the 2012 season. The progression curve is so non linear in the NHL that it's incredibly hard to gauge who will be taken in the top 5 ahead of time outside of one or two players. Now look at Drouin. If he didn't start to bloom so late he would have more than likely went 1st overall last year and people are starting to question if he has generational ability. The NFL is pretty well laid out one year in advance barring major injuries and players deciding not to turn pro.

You also have to take into account that 1st and 2nd round picks are the currency at the trade deadline. It's especially important if you are a middle of the pack team or a team just on the outside of contention to hold on to your 1st round picks. Take a team like Minnesota or Montreal. They're more than likely not going to win the cup this year but they could be a contender next year. The same could be said for quite a few teams in the league. With the amount of parity outside of a few teams you have no clue ahead of time how good you are going to be from a year to year basis. So it would make very little sense for them to trade their 2015 1st round pick when that will be their major trading chip at next year's deadline to help push their team towards a cup.

I think Snow really messed up adding the 2015 clause. If he didn't have faith in his team he shouldn't have made the trade in the first place. All he did in this instance is create himself another headache.

 

[jc17]

Hypothetically: If the Isles defer the pick to next year, then do terribly, do you think their management does some patchwork that might not help them in the long run, but gets them out of the position of potentially "winning the lottery" which they don't have a pick in?

For example: I can't imagine NYI management nor NYI fans would be happy if they finished last and lost out on McDavid. So if the first half of the season goes by and they are in last, do you see them shipping out youth or prospects for veterans in order to avoid the humiliation?

 

[haseoke39]

Hypothetically: If the Isles defer the pick to next year, then do terribly, do you think their management does some patchwork that might not help them in the long run, but gets them out of the position of potentially "winning the lottery" which they don't have a pick in?

For example: I can't imagine NYI management nor NYI fans would be happy if they finished last and lost out on McDavid. So if the first half of the season goes by and they are in last, do you see them shipping out youth or prospects for veterans in order to avoid the humiliation?

I don't think anyone is quite that dumb.

I do think you'll see the Islanders with a high incentive to improve over the offseason. To be honest, though, little to no more incentive than they had this past offseason, so I don't think drastic improvements are likely. The team can't just choose to be better and get better, especially while losing their best winger.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Islander pick is now 4th overall. This is turning into a real pickle suddenly for Mr. Snow. Defer until 2015 has to be scary if you are NYI fan and you give up #1 overall. But when you talking a top 5 pick, you might just roll the die and figure it can't get worse.

 

[Sabre Dance]

The thing with trading future 1st rounders and why it isn't done in the NHL is the way players progress. Look at Drouin for example. He wasn't even inside the top 10 on most major rankings prior to the beginning of the 2012 season. The progression curve is so non linear in the NHL that it's incredibly hard to gauge who will be taken in the top 5 ahead of time outside of one or two players. Now look at Drouin. If he didn't start to bloom so late he would have more than likely went 1st overall last year and people are starting to question if he has generational ability. The NFL is pretty well laid out one year in advance barring major injuries and players deciding not to turn pro.

You also have to take into account that 1st and 2nd round picks are the currency at the trade deadline. It's especially important if you are a middle of the pack team or a team just on the outside of contention to hold on to your 1st round picks. Take a team like Minnesota or Montreal. They're more than likely not going to win the cup this year but they could be a contender next year. The same could be said for quite a few teams in the league. With the amount of parity outside of a few teams you have no clue ahead of time how good you are going to be from a year to year basis. So it would make very little sense for them to trade their 2015 1st round pick when that will be their major trading chip at next year's deadline to help push their team towards a cup.

I think Snow really messed up adding the 2015 clause. If he didn't have faith in his team he shouldn't have made the trade in the first place. All he did in this instance is create himself another headache.

I think many people are really thinking the wrong way on this. Pretty much teams trading 1st round picks for players are teams going for the playoffs, so that is one of the issues there. They would rather trade their low 1st.

But lets say we held on to Vanek and the Panthers wanted him. They are a bottom 5 team. Are you telling me they would rather trade that top 5 pick instead of a future 1st round pick? That makes zero sense unless that team was planning on being a bottom 5 team again. Very few teams think that way.

 

[Fly Boy]

I think many people are really thinking the wrong way on this. Pretty much teams trading 1st round picks for players are teams going for the playoffs, so that is one of the issues there. They would rather trade their low 1st.

But lets say we held on to Vanek and the Panthers wanted him. They are a bottom 5 team. Are you telling me they would rather trade that top 5 pick instead of a future 1st round pick? That makes zero sense unless that team was planning on being a bottom 5 team again. Very few teams think that way.

They wouldn't trade either pick. That scenario is ridiculous and not at all likely. You're reaching at this point.

 

[Moskau]

But lets say we held on to Vanek and the Panthers wanted him. They are a bottom 5 team. Are you telling me they would rather trade that top 5 pick instead of a future 1st round pick? That makes zero sense unless that team was planning on being a bottom 5 team again. Very few teams think that way.

I don't think many people want the Islanders to defer to the 2015 if their 2014 pick is top 5. It's the 6-9 range that I would prefer they did defer.

 

[threeVo]

The Sabres would be wise to trade Moulson for a 2015 1st not a 2014. Never know if a fringe playoff team has major injuries next season and ends up near the cellar. Best case scenario would put us with ours, NYI top 5 pick, and that teams 1st rounders. Stack the deck to get MacDavid. I doubt anyone trades their 15 1st for our 14 1st, nor would I want us to. Even if NYI finishes in the bottom 5 this year I think they let us keep it. Either way we win.

 

[Paxon]

The Sabres would be wise to trade Moulson for a 2015 1st not a 2014. Never know if a fringe playoff team has major injuries next season and ends up near the cellar. Best case scenario would put us with ours, NYI top 5 pick, and that teams 1st rounders. Stack the deck to get MacDavid. I doubt anyone trades their 15 1st for our 14 1st, nor would I want us to. Even if NYI finishes in the bottom 5 this year I think they let us keep it. Either way we win.

This is exactly the scenario people are talking about when they say teams don't trade future 1sts. A team that wants Moulson at the deadline is a playoff contender. They'd have no problem giving up their 1st in this year's draft because they know it will be a late pick. That same team can't say for certain that they're a playoff team next year if they catch some bad breaks. It would be very difficult to get a team to give up a 2015 1st over a 2014, and that'd be the case even without McDavid/Eichel/Barzal. It'd be the case even if 2014 were seen as the superior draft class.

 

[is the answer jesus]

The Sabres would be wise to trade Moulson for a 2015 1st not a 2014. Never know if a fringe playoff team has major injuries next season and ends up near the cellar. Best case scenario would put us with ours, NYI top 5 pick, and that teams 1st rounders. Stack the deck to get MacDavid. I doubt anyone trades their 15 1st for our 14 1st, nor would I want us to. Even if NYI finishes in the bottom 5 this year I think they let us keep it. Either way we win.

I don't get why people think the isles would give up a pick as high as a top 5 in this draft. Even in a weak draft class there's a very good chance you're getting a damn good player. I get the McDavid hype he's a fantastic player, a generational talent in fact, and while there's a couple other guys who look like stars in that draft class what are the odds that the isles are picking anywhere near as high next year?

 

[Havok89]

I don't get why people think the isles would give up a pick as high as a top 5 in this draft. Even in a weak draft class there's a very good chance you're getting a damn good player. I get the McDavid hype he's a fantastic player, a generational talent in fact, and while there's a couple other guys who look like stars in that draft class what are the odds that the isles are picking anywhere near as high next year?

Pretty good unless they drastically improve defense and goaltending. Losing Moulson and possibly Vanek could really hurt them as well.

 

[is the answer jesus]

Pretty good unless they drastically improve defense and goaltending. Losing Moulson and possibly Vanek could really hurt them as well.

There's just no way to predict that. Who would have thought Colorado would have been so much better this year or Tampa? For every perennial loser like Edmonton or Florida, there's a team who exceeds expectations. Hell they don't even have to be as succesful as those teams have been this year, just better then this year.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

I would suspect the Islanders hold onto a top 5 pick but I'm happy to take the gamble they're just as bad in 2015. That's the beauty of the deal, it's essentially lottery protected but only for one year. If the Sabres had the choice, I would grab the top 5 pick for sure.

This was a brilliant aspect of the deal by Regier. Did he get lucky? Clearly the Isles made this deal not thinking they might be looking at a top 5 pick this year, even with the escape clause,

Not completely unlike Pominville trade. No way Minnesota thought the pick would be that high.

I suppose this stuff can go the other way when you trade draft picks so early in the year.