GWT: Champions League R16 Draw and Build-Up

[East Coast Bias]

I think you meant Gladbach, who are cooler than all three of Pepchester / Chelsea / Madrid

Yeah i'm thinking last round. I'll be taking a flier on Gladbach at +550 to go through. This City team is soft.

 

[cgf]

Yeah i'm thinking last round. I'll be taking a flier on Gladbach at +550 to go through. This City team is soft.

Yeah, if you find a strong value bet I'd put some money on BMG to go through too...though I might wait until closer to the matchup to make sure injuries haven't kneecapped them, to put anything more than a token sum on them.

Not that I'm expecting it to happen, Pepchester are absolutely favorites to advance from that matchup. But if BMG are playing well (like they were earlier in the competition) & are healthy when the knockouts roll around; they absolutely have it in them to upset this City team.

Of the underdogs in this round, I think they could offer the best balance of enticing odds + realistic chance of capitalizing. The teams I feel more confident in pulling off the upset aren't going to offer anywhere near as good of a payout. While the teams who will get similar returns to BMG, I feel less confident in actually pulling it off without their opponent imploding.

 

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

I don’t think anyone should write off city for both league and CL

 

[Evilo]

@cgf you need to watch yesterday's game if you think PSG has improved.
They suck like they never sucked in 10 years. There's absolutely zero collective offense. Give to Ney, Mbappe or Di Maria and hope for something. Florenzi has been superb, and Verratti is great. Marqui always strong. Navas always solid. Rest is CRAP. And more importantly, they can't play together offensively.
They're worse than they were under Emery and Ancelotti and miles worse than Blanc's.

 

[Power Man]

@cgf you need to watch yesterday's game if you think PSG has improved.
They suck like they never sucked in 10 years. There's absolutely zero collective offense. Give to Ney, Mbappe or Di Maria and hope for something. Florenzi has been superb, and Verratti is great. Marqui always strong. Navas always solid. Rest is CRAP. And more importantly, they can't play together offensively.
They're worse than they were under Emery and Ancelotti and miles worse than Blanc's.

Yeah I watched parts of that game vs Lyon and I agree with you
Offensively Verratti and Florenzi connected well, but other than that the offense was like having a bunch of played a headless chickens on the pitch
Marquinhos and Navas were good


By the way what do you think of Petit's recent comment on Mbappé?

 

[cgf]

@cgf you need to watch yesterday's game if you think PSG has improved.
They suck like they never sucked in 10 years. There's absolutely zero collective offense. Give to Ney, Mbappe or Di Maria and hope for something. Florenzi has been superb, and Verratti is great. Marqui always strong. Navas always solid. Rest is CRAP. And more importantly, they can't play together offensively.
They're worse than they were under Emery and Ancelotti and miles worse than Blanc's.

That's a shame. I was just assuming from their improving form in the CL that their play was coming together in the league as well, thanks for the correction. Is there any word on who they're looking at to replace Tuchel when the inevitable happens?

I stand by my point about Bayern, though. They're by no means unbeatable (especially while Kimmich is out or when they're facing a club as cool as my Eiserne), but saying they are in disarray while hyping Athletico just seems silly to me when Bayern just dominated their group over Simeone's boys so thoroughly (including that 4:0 embarrassment of Atleti), that they had nothing left to play for by the 2nd match with Madrid.

 

[Evilo]

Yeah I watched parts of that game vs Lyon and I agree with you
Offensively Verratti and Florenzi connected well, but other than that the offense was like having a bunch of played a headless chickens on the pitch
Marquinhos and Navas were good


By the way what do you think of Petit's recent comment on Mbappé?

Don't know what Petit said, but plenty of former players love to shit on Mbappe. I just lol to them.
Guy is pretty close to perfect in his behaviour, his performances are unmatched by any french (and other?) player in history, but they always try to find some reasons to shit on him. He should have passed there, he should have shot there, he should have said, this or that, he should have played better there, etc....

Well, no player is perfect and Mbappe is obviously not performing like a Ballon d'Or winner in every game. His conduct on and off the pitch is amazing for a guy his age. Huge maturity. He's sincere in his approach to fans, and the way he behaved himself for some ill young kids is breathtaking. I know for a fact he is never hesitant to go and meet cancer kids without ever being advertised for it.
Guy is a great dude and a great player. He's 21 years old and has a resume that every single player in the history of the sport would have loved to have at that age (and most players in their career).

Right now, Mbappe is in his biggest funk of his young career. That's fine, the whole L1 is, most likely impacted by the long break this year.

Some people just get paid to be talked about after having at best a solid career, while another is a top notch individual who has performed better than anyone before on the pitch. Well, I know who I like better.

 

[Evilo]

That's a shame. I was just assuming from their improved form in the CL that their play was coming together in the league as well, thanks for the correction. Is there any word on who they're looking at to replace Tuchel when the inevitable happens?

I stand by my point about Bayern, though. They're by no means unbeatable (especially while Kimmich is out), but saying they are in disarray while hyping Athletico just seems silly to me when Bayern just dominated their group over Simeone's boys so thoroughly (including a 4:0 embarrassment of Atleti), that they had nothing left to play for by the 2nd match with Madrid.

Bayern is a much better bet to win it than Atletico, I agree.

As for PSG, they were awful against Leipzig too. Only at United did they play decently (and even then if Cavani doesn't hit the bar, they're out of the CL).
Tuchel is gone next summer, except if they win the CL. Before that if they crash (CL/L1). The replacement is a huge question mark. Pocchettino is an obvious link, former player and all. I'm thinking Leonardo will want an italian coach, Conte or Allegri (yuck). Some are pushing for Blanc, but I think that ship has sailed.
It also depends if Messi comes. If he does, some coaches will be more than happy to come for a big CL chance.

 

[cgf]

Bayern is a much better bet to win it than Atletico, I agree.

As for PSG, they were awful against Leipzig too. Only at United did they play decently (and even then if Cavani doesn't hit the bar, they're out of the CL).
Tuchel is gone next summer, except if they win the CL. Before that if they crash (CL/L1). The replacement is a huge question mark. Pocchettino is an obvious link, former player and all. I'm thinking Leonardo will want an italian coach, Conte or Allegri (yuck). Some are pushing for Blanc, but I think that ship has sailed.
It also depends if Messi comes. If he does, some coaches will be more than happy to come for a big CL chance.

Doubt it has much chances of happening. But with the recent tumult in Atalanta, I can't help but think about what PSG would look like if they poached Gasperini...even if de Zerbi is the italian coach who I'm most excited to see eventually taking over a big club.

 

[Power Man]

Don't know what Petit said, but plenty of former players love to shit on Mbappe. I just lol to them.
Guy is pretty close to perfect in his behaviour, his performances are unmatched by any french (and other?) player in history, but they always try to find some reasons to shit on him. He should have passed there, he should have shot there, he should have said, this or that, he should have played better there, etc....

Well, no player is perfect and Mbappe is obviously not performing like a Ballon d'Or winner in every game. His conduct on and off the pitch is amazing for a guy his age. Huge maturity. He's sincere in his approach to fans, and the way he behaved himself for some ill young kids is breathtaking. I know for a fact he is never hesitant to go and meet cancer kids without ever being advertised for it.
Guy is a great dude and a great player. He's 21 years old and has a resume that every single player in the history of the sport would have loved to have at that age (and most players in their career).

Right now, Mbappe is in his biggest funk of his young career. That's fine, the whole L1 is, most likely impacted by the long break this year.

Some people just get paid to be talked about after having at best a solid career, while another is a top notch individual who has performed better than anyone before on the pitch. Well, I know who I like better.

Basically Petit said that Mbappe is an average player without his speed

I mean, he is fast, but I disagree with Petit; Mbappe is really skilled and few players can change rythm in the blink of an eye like he does

I agree with you that Mbappe is great on and off the pitch, except for that dive against Ukraine at the end of the game when France was winning 4-1 but that was relatively a long time ago and hopefully he doesn't do that shit anymore

Plus he is an Olive and Tom fan, that's always a positive in my books

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Don't mind this draw. Sevilla is a boring team. They can obviously beat us, but aren't the strongest team we could've drawn. I wasn't scared of playing any of the teams we could've drawn though, so it doesn't matter that much.

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

Yeah, if you find a strong value bet I'd put some money on BMG to go through too...though I might wait until closer to the matchup to make sure injuries haven't kneecapped them, to put anything more than a token sum on them.

Not that I'm expecting it to happen, Pepchester are absolutely favorites to advance from that matchup. But if BMG are playing well (like they were earlier in the competition) & are healthy when the knockouts roll around; they absolutely have it in them to upset this City team.

Of the underdogs in this round, I think they could offer the best balance of enticing odds + realistic chance of capitalizing. The teams I feel more confident in pulling off the upset aren't going to offer anywhere near as good of a payout. While the teams who will get similar returns to BMG, I feel less confident in actually pulling it off without their opponent imploding.

Most likely outcome is Gladbach losing pretty badly.

 

[Savant]

Yeah i'm thinking last round. I'll be taking a flier on Gladbach at +550 to go through. This City team is soft.

Leipzig at +375 is a much better idea

 

[cgf]

Leipzig at +375 is a much better idea

True.

 

[YNWA14]

PSG struggled while Marquinhos was their best healthy midfielder. They've been drastically improved since Veratti returned and look a lot more like they did last season again.

And I don't know what Bayern you've been watching to claim they are in disarray. With Kimmich injured they have had moments where they looked almost mortal, but even by Bayern standards looking almost mortal =/= disarray. I mean they still waltzed through their group over Athletico without even breaking a sweat & are in a great position to win the league again after they go on their annual second-half winning streak...at least they have been since Hertha took Kruse out to undermine our inevitable title push

I wouldn't have said anything if you had just said that they looked more vulnerable than they did last season and hadn't tried to hype Athletico (who did not look like they even belonged on the same pitch as Bayern during that 4-0 loss in the match they played before the group had already been decided), but you went with the hard hyperbole instead

Ok, Bayern haven't looked as good as they did last year, imo, and aren't even in 1st in the BuLi. They haven't impressed me this season. Atletico, who had a bad game against Bayern early in the CL, have looked about the same as ever (actually, I think they look better than last year). I wasn't declaring them favourites, but I do think that they could win this year by virtue of the other top teams not being at their best which is difficult when you face a suffocating Atletico. I know you're no stranger to hyperbole when making a point, but if you think both finalists look just as good as last year we can agree to disagree. PSG have been pretty poor especially relative to their standards, and it could be even worse if Neymar is injured (though I haven't been paying attention if any news came back on that yet).

 

[Adele Dazeem]

I don’t think anyone should write off city for both league and CL

Great take... They couldn't beat United and you think they'll do a double. Lmao

 

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

Great take... They couldn't beat United and you think they'll do a double. Lmao

What I said was that no one should write them off for either competition not that they will do a doable. United also beat PSG this year and held Chelsea to a draw. I guess you can count both of them out.

Furthermore, Madrid lost to Cadiz, Munich drew to Union. So who is exactly not written off based on your standard?

 

[Gecklund]

Great take... They couldn't beat United and you think they'll do a double. Lmao

That’s not what he said....

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Ok, Bayern haven't looked as good as they did last year, imo, and aren't even in 1st in the BuLi. They haven't impressed me this season. Atletico, who had a bad game against Bayern early in the CL, have looked about the same as ever (actually, I think they look better than last year). I wasn't declaring them favourites, but I do think that they could win this year by virtue of the other top teams not being at their best which is difficult when you face a suffocating Atletico. I know you're no stranger to hyperbole when making a point, but if you think both finalists look just as good as last year we can agree to disagree. PSG have been pretty poor especially relative to their standards, and it could be even worse if Neymar is injured (though I haven't been paying attention if any news came back on that yet).

I heard a crazy stat today that Bayern have lost the xG in their last six games.

 

[YNWA14]

What I said was that no one should write them off for either competition not that they will do a doable. United also beat PSG this year and held Chelsea to a draw. I guess you can count both of them out.

Furthermore, Madrid lost to Cadiz, Munich drew to Union. So who is exactly not written off based on your standard?

I think we can rule out PSG winning the PL for sure, the rest is still up in the air.

 

[YNWA14]

I heard a crazy stat today that Bayern have lost the xG in their last six games.

I'm not sure about in the CL, but they've been behind on xG in 4 of their last 5 league games.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I'm not sure about in the CL, but they've been behind on xG in 4 of their last 5 league games.

Gab Marcotti stated it on the ESPN FC show from yesterday. I didn’t check it to see if it was true, but it sounded surprising, even though they’ve struggled recently.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

What I said was that no one should write them off for either competition not that they will do a doable. United also beat PSG this year and held Chelsea to a draw. I guess you can count both of them out.

Furthermore, Madrid lost to Cadiz, Munich drew to Union. So who is exactly not written off based on your standard?

City is in a mid-table position, the other teams you listed aren't. Yes, there will be games where things go wrong, but City haven't showed enough for me to say that they're a contender this season. They have made some progress defensively, but offensively they have taken two steps back. The lack of a finisher on that team is going to cause them some real problems once they play the big boys. Jesus isn't the answer up top, and Aguero isn't fit/passed his prime.

For my money the teams with the best chances are Bayern, Juventus, Madrid and Liverpool.

 

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

City is in a mid-table position, the other teams you listed aren't. Yes, there will be games where things go wrong, but City haven't showed enough for me to say that they're a contender this season. They have made some progress defensively, but offensively they have taken two steps back. The lack of a finisher on that team is going to cause them some real problems once they play the big boys. Jesus isn't the answer up top, and Aguero isn't fit/passed his prime.

For my money the teams with the best chances are Bayern, Juventus, Madrid and Liverpool.

Mid table side thats 6 points back from first place and a game to spare. A bit too early to make any claim me thinks. Juve on your list is pretty interesting considering they sit 4th place in Serie A. They have been dreadful at times this season.

 

[Savant]

Man City have a much better chance than Liverpool with their squad health and easy R16 draw. Their domestic form isn’t as bad as it looks. They still have a game in hand and no one has separated from the pack yet.