Confirmed Trade: [CGY/EDM] James Neal for Milan Lucic (12.5% retained) and a 2020 conditional 3rd round pick Part 4

[Karl Eriksson]

I can't wait for the season to start so I can watch Oiler fans turn on James Neal faster than a fat kid chasing an ice cream truck.
We all know its going to happen... its just a question of when.

Fat kids cant move very fast, even to chase ice cream. So Oiler fans may turn on Neal very slowly.

 

[Big guns]

really? you've lost all rational arguments so you are going to go to the lame "oh its the oilers organization they are losers they suck" argument? If you actually think that's why Lucic declined so badly the last couple years, then good luck

Losing breeds losing with no end in sight and you dont think that players get affected?
Is looch declining? Absolutely.
Is part of it from sitting in a dumpster fire at the crap show. Absolutely.

 

[Rubi]

you're making a lot of assumptions of GMs will and will not do

No I'm not. I'm just stating the cap financial facts of a Neal contract buyout in the next couple of years.

what isn't an assumption is that Lucic's contract is unmovable and buyout proof

And yet Lucic's contract did get moved so its not an assumption at all. Buyout proof only comes into play if the Flames have any intentions of buying it out. They don't. They are quite prepared to pay Lucic's $5.25M contract for the next 4 years even if he doesn't score another goal in his career.

Neal's has no restrictions

As I've said before, any buyout next summer will cost the Oilers almost $2M in cap space for the next 6 years. The summer after that it will cost the Oilers almost $2M in cap space for the next 4 years. And that's not counting the $.75M they are paying the Flames to have Lucic play for them. You could of course say that the Oilers won't buy Neal out.. they'll trade him. Do you really think thats an option if the only trade partner that Treliving could find this summer was the Oilers? If he has another bad year under his belt, which I think is the only reason the Oilers would trade him, he'll be even more untradeable.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Past dont mean much at this point.

Have fun end of next year when when mcregrettingit asks for a trade.

Or If you want to go to the past we can pull up that old gem article showing the oilers as the worst sports franchise of the last 2 decades. Not nhl franchise mind you, sports franchise.

But things are looking up for you, Heck in 2 years you will be able to field 3 quarters of an nhl line up if everything goes well and maybe if you picked a nhl player past pick 3 and you dont have to rebuild because you traded mcwastingacareer and you dont have 6 mil of dead cap space to have people not play for you. Not when but how many ah good times, good times.

Have a wonderful day.

same tired statements as usual about the franchise...we've heard them all before

enjoy Looch, hopefully he can help little Johnny grow a pair when hockey gets a too rough for the little guy

 

[Rubi]

Fat kids cant move very fast, even to chase ice cream. So Oiler fans may turn on Neal very slowly.

We're not talking an endurance race here... we're talking a short sprint.... which is likely the length of time that it takes Oilers fans to turn on Neal.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

No I'm not. I'm just stating the cap financial facts of a Neal contract buyout in the next couple of years.
And yet Lucic's contract did get moved so its not an assumption at all. Buyout proof only comes into play if the Flames have any intentions of buying it out. They don't. They are quite prepared to pay Lucic's $5.25M contract for the next 4 years even if he doesn't score another goal in his career.

they can't buyout his contract because there's virtually no cap savings with a buy out

As I've said before, any buyout next summer will cost the Oilers almost $2M in cap space for the next 6 years. The summer after that it will cost the Oilers almost $2M in cap space for the next 4 years. And that's not counting the $.75M they are paying the Flames to have Lucic play for them. You could of course say that the Oilers won't buy Neal out.. they'll trade him. Do you really think thats an option if the only trade partner that Treliving could find this summer was the Oilers? If he has another bad year under his belt, which I think is the only reason the Oilers would trade him, he'll be even more untradeable.

his 2 million dollar buyout is still better than Lucic's 6 million dollar contract
what don't you get about that?

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

We're not talking an endurance race here... we're talking a short sprint.... which is likely the length of time that it takes Oilers fans to turn on Neal.

Hey, might be almost as quick as you turned on Lucic from being a 4th liner to potentially turning it around since he’s a flame!

 

[Rubi]

they can't buyout his contract because there's virtually no cap savings with a buy out


his 2 million dollar buyout is still better than Lucic's 6 million dollar contract
what don't you get about that?

Actually not to split hairs but Lucic's contract costs the Flames $5.25M.
I get it but Lucic on the ice will likely help the Flames, even at $5.25M and even if he doesn't score a lot (the Flames don't need him to score). $6.5M Neal on the Oilers this year won't move the needle much. They'll still probably finish in the bottom 1/3rd of the league and miss the playoffs again. You're paying $6.5M to a guy who will likely have very little impact on the team's fortunes for the next 4 years.
I'll also be shocked if Neal is bought out before his final season.

 

[cpsman]

Losing breeds losing with no end in sight and you dont think that players get affected?
Is looch declining? Absolutely.
Is part of it from sitting in a dumpster fire at the crap show. Absolutely.

That isn't why he's declining. I'm not saying it doesn't have a mental toll, but having a bunch of crappy players like him is why the team is losing, not the other way around.

Despite having a losing team, McDavid and Draisaitl are excelling. So are players like Chaisson. RNH is doing well too. You can't just blame "a losing organization" on Lucic's decline. That is a total cop out. The guy just flat out can't play hockey anymore.

 

[cpsman]

Actually not to split hairs but Lucic's contract costs the Flames $5.25M.
I get it but Lucic on the ice will likely help the Flames, even at $5.25M and even if he doesn't score a lot (the Flames don't need him to score). $6.5M Neal on the Oilers this year won't move the needle much. They'll still probably finish in the bottom 1/3rd of the league and miss the playoffs again. You're paying $6.5M to a guy who will likely have very little impact on the team's fortunes for the next 4 years.
I'll also be shocked if Neal is bought out before his final season.

I have no idea why you keep saying Neal won't be bought out if he sucks. His contract is way more favourable for a buyout. SO many people agree on this.

 

[cpsman]

they can't buyout his contract because there's virtually no cap savings with a buy out


his 2 million dollar buyout is still better than Lucic's 6 million dollar contract
what don't you get about that?

Don't start, I tried to bring this up a few pages ago but Rubi convincingly believes that Neal would never have been bought out if he remained on the Flames, and still doesn't think the Oilers would buy him out. It still isn't clear to me his rationale behind this

 

[Rubi]

Hey, might be almost as quick as you turned on Lucic from being a 4th liner to potentially turning it around since he’s a flame!

Nope... haven't changed my opinion about Lucic. At $5.25M he's still vastly overpaid for what he brings to the table.
The difference is that one way or another the Flames were going to be stuck with a 4 year contract between $5.25M and $5.75M. I'd rather be stuck with Lucic's $5.25 contract than Neal's $5.75M contract. Last year Neal conclusively proved that he was a waste of space on the bench ... at any dollar amount.

 

[Rubi]

Don't start, I tried to bring this up a few pages ago but Rubi convincingly believes that Neal would never have been bought out if he remained on the Flames, and still doesn't think the Oilers would buy him out. It still isn't clear to me his rationale behind this

Because no way in hell was Treliving going to buy out Neal's contract one year after signing him to a $5.25M AAV contract for 5 years.
And Neal HAD TO GO! Bill Peters hated him and last I heard its the coach who does the game day lineup. Buying him out wasn't an option and having him sit 82 games in the press box wasn't an option either.
Now... I may be wrong and Holland may buy him out next summer if Neal doesn't perform. I think, however, that he won't do that. 6 years of $2M cap space is a lot to swallow.. particularly on a team that is struggling as much as the Oilers are right now.

Edit: If Treliving had bought out Neal's contract this summer the Flames would be on the hook for EIGHT years of $2M dead cap space.

 

[qwerty]

That isn't why he's declining. I'm not saying it doesn't have a mental toll, but having a bunch of crappy players like him is why the team is losing, not the other way around.

Despite having a losing team, McDavid and Draisaitl are excelling. So are players like Chaisson. RNH is doing well too. You can't just blame "a losing organization" on Lucic's decline. That is a total cop out. The guy just flat out can't play hockey anymore.

Personally I believe Lucic can still play. I just think the style of play was a problem for him with the Oilers. With Kopitar he did fabulous. But to expect him to keep up on the rush at the pace that McDavid plays at is difficult for a heavier power forward.

I could see Lucic having more success with a Tkachuk-Backlund combo who are excellent down low and cycling.

 

[super6646]

Personally I believe Lucic can still play. I just think the style of play was a problem for him with the Oilers. With Kopitar he did fabulous. But to expect him to keep up on the rush at the pace that McDavid plays at is difficult for a heavier power forward.

I could see Lucic having more success with a Tkachuk-Backlund combo who are excellent down low and cycling.

He’s not playing with Tkachuk and Backlund.

 

[cpsman]

Personally I believe Lucic can still play. I just think the style of play was a problem for him with the Oilers. With Kopitar he did fabulous. But to expect him to keep up on the rush at the pace that McDavid plays at is difficult for a heavier power forward.

I could see Lucic having more success with a Tkachuk-Backlund combo who are excellent down low and cycling.

He played decently his first year with the Oilers too. That proves it wasn't a bad fit. The fact that he initially did decently then declined shows how he got worse as a player.

 

[cpsman]

Because no way in hell was Treliving going to buy out Neal's contract one year after signing him to a $5.25M AAV contract for 5 years.
And Neal HAD TO GO! Bill Peters hated him and last I heard its the coach who does the game day lineup. Buying him out wasn't an option and having him sit 82 games in the press box wasn't an option either.
Now... I may be wrong and Holland may buy him out next summer if Neal doesn't perform. I think, however, that he won't do that. 6 years of $2M cap space is a lot to swallow.. particularly on a team that is struggling as much as the Oilers are right now.

Edit: If Treliving had bought out Neal's contract this summer the Flames would be on the hook for EIGHT years of $2M dead cap space.

This makes no sense at allllll.
If he sucks and doesn't gel with the team of course he would be bought out. Why would any sane GM keep him at almost 6M per year for three years as dead weight?

If he sucks next year, he could be bought out and this would be the savings for the Oilers:
2020-2021 - $3.8M
2021-2022 - $3.8M
2022-2023 - $3.8M
2023-2024 - negative $1.9M
2024-2025 - negative $1.9M
2025-2026 - negative $1.9M

So basically almost 4M of savings for three years (thats a decent defensemen or depth forward you can sign for that while Draisaitl and McDavid are still signed and in their prime). I'm pretty sure would definitely want to use the savings to get a USEFUL player to replace Neal rather than just keep him on the roster.

That's worth the negative 2M in dead weight for the following three years which will be less of an impact because the cap will go up by then anyway.

 

[General Disarray]

Well one of our fanbases is going to shutup real fast either way haha. Someone is probably going to show they are the winner of the trade in the first few months. Either that or both Lucic and Neal suck really bad and this bickering just dissolves slowly.

I'd say Calgary already lost the trade. Lucic is worst and his contract is worst. The only question left is will it be a lose-lose trade or will Edmonton come out on top.

 

[Big guns]

That isn't why he's declining. I'm not saying it doesn't have a mental toll, but having a bunch of crappy players like him is why the team is losing, not the other way around.

Despite having a losing team, McDavid and Draisaitl are excelling. So are players like Chaisson. RNH is doing well too. You can't just blame "a losing organization" on Lucic's decline. That is a total cop out. The guy just flat out can't play hockey anymore.

So three players are doing ok and one of them is a first overall generational and the other a top 5 pick both getting prime minutes.
You really put me in my place bud.

 

[Johnnybegood13]

You can't just blame "a losing organization" on Lucic's decline. That is a total cop out.

Have you played team pro sports? the first couple of years it's awesome no matter what, big money and fame. After that winning is the most
important part that lets you sleep at night, loosing sucks, it drags you down and when it looks hopeless even the most dedicated athlete game suffers to the point of almost quitting.

This is a human physiological fact.

Here's the fact, Lucic was on a bad loosing team and sucked, Neal was on the NHL's 2nd best team and still sucked.

 

[qwerty]

He’s not playing with Tkachuk and Backlund.

You never know. If Frolik ends up moving, the spot would be freed up for just about anyone. Neal is gone, Bennett hasn’t shown enough chemistry up there, neither has Czarnik and etc. Mangiapane could be the best fit but with only 50ish games under his belt, not really sure If that’ll work out.

 

[qwerty]

He played decently his first year with the Oilers too. That proves it wasn't a bad fit. The fact that he initially did decently then declined shows how he got worse as a player.

Lucic definitely had his fair share playing with good players which helped his cause. But in terms of even strength, it seems like he really only ever hit it off with RNH.

The way I see it, he really only had 1 bad half (second half of 17-18). Last season, he finished top 6 in scoring among Oiler forwards. Not sure how much better he could’ve done playing 13 minutes a night primarily with Kyle Brodziak.

 

[VainGretzky]

Actually not to split hairs but Lucic's contract costs the Flames $5.25M.
I get it but Lucic on the ice will likely help the Flames, even at $5.25M and even if he doesn't score a lot (the Flames don't need him to score). $6.5M Neal on the Oilers this year won't move the needle much. They'll still probably finish in the bottom 1/3rd of the league and miss the playoffs again. You're paying $6.5M to a guy who will likely have very little impact on the team's fortunes for the next 4 years.
I'll also be shocked if Neal is bought out before his final season.

I love these experts here on HF and their very short memories

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

I love these experts here on HF and their very short memories

m
It’s amazing how Rubi has done a complete 180 on Lucic since you know, he’s a Calgary Flame.

 

[Bank Shot]

m
It’s amazing how Rubi has done a complete 180 on Lucic since you know, he’s a Calgary Flame.

lol. That's a great find.