Confirmed Trade: [CGY/EDM] James Neal for Milan Lucic (12.5% retained) and a 2020 conditional 3rd round pick Part 4

[Lunatik]

IMO, the factor for the Flames was probably the real money saved and not having to give up any future's whatsoever to rid themselves of Neal.

I'm guessing they wanted Neal gone, refused to pay teams to take him with futures (picks/prospects/young players) and also refused to take on bad salary that cost more real money now or than Neal's buyout. The benchmark was probably the total cost of a Neal buyout ($15,333,333) plus the least amount of cost to put another player on the roster in his place (at least around $3M over 4 seasons).

After the Oilers paid Lucic's bonus for the coming season, and with the retention factored in, the Flames are on the hook for $14M in real money over the next 4 years. That's slightly less than Neal's $15M+ buyout and obviously less than the $23M due to him without it.

FWIW, a lot of that cost is a bit deferred as well. For the duration of the coming season, in real money the Flames will pay Lucic only $2.25M vs either Neil on the roster ($5.75M) or a Neal buyout and an additional player making at least league minimum in his place (at least $2,616,667). Even when you throw in Lucic's $2.5M bonus due on 7/1/20, The Flames still save $1M in real money over the next calendar year vs retaining Neal ($4.75M vs $5.75M).

Given the likely costs associated with their ongoing arena negotiations, maybe opening up that operating capital was valuable in ownerships eyes?

So yea...

From the Flames fans perspective.... A clear loss
From their hockey teams perspective.... Negligible to a draw
From Eugene Melnyk's (and CSEC) perspective... a clear WIN

Yes, we wanted Neal gone.
Yes, we weren't going to give up assets to dump him.
No, it wasn't about money. That was likely just a bonus.
It was done because the Flames are soft like warm butter, we only had 2 guys that threw their body around with regularity and we lost one of them in free agency. Lucic filled that need and had a bad enough contract that it made it possible.

 

[CaptainCrunch67]

It also isn't like the Flames can't control securing that conditional pick if/when Neal hits 21 goals and Lucic has less than 11...

[Day after Neal hits 21]:

Peters: Hey Looch, can you come to my office after practice today?
Lucic: Sure thing coach
Peters with Lucic in his office: You know Loochie, those ummm hits and that uhhh... oh yea... intimidation have been just suuuuuper super valuable to the team this season.
Lucic: You mean like that brawl I started against the Lightning when we were down by 3 goals in the 3rd?
Peters: Yea, gosh, that was great... So great and valuable that we don't want to lose that edge for the playoffs, you know? So we're going to let you rest up and take some games off for the rest of the year so you're fresh and ready to go in the playoffs. You know just incase we need somebody to get real intense during the handshake line after a hard fought series.

More like Tippet calls Neal into his office

Tippet - "Hi James"

Neal yawns and stretches - "Sup"

Tippet - "Yeah, if you know, you could put a little bit more effort into your play that'd be great"

Neal - "evs"

Tippet - "And maybe backcheck, that'd be great because your 5 goals in 60 games just ain't cutting it"

Neal - "The James don't backcheck . . . back checking is hard", Neal pulls out a pillow and fluffs it up and lays back.

Tippet - "Yeah, I'm gonna ask you to take your stuff and move it to the press box m'kay"

Neal - "Can you have the office make my next check out to cash, that's my nickname"

 

[Darkwinter]

More like Tippet calls Neal into his office

Tippet - "Hi James"

Neal yawns and stretches - "Sup"Okay where's the part that makes this funny ???

Tippet - "Yeah, if you know, you could put a little bit more effort into your play that'd be great"

Neal - "evs"

Tippet - "And maybe backcheck, that'd be great because your 5 goals in 60 games just ain't cutting it"

Neal - "The James don't backcheck . . . back checking is hard", Neal pulls out a pillow and fluffs it up and lays back.

Tippet - "Yeah, I'm gonna ask you to take your stuff and move it to the press box m'kay"

Neal - "Can you have the office make my next check out to cash, that's my nickname"

 

[Fig]

Calgary won the trade. Edmonton won the trade. Calgary got rid of a problem on their team and Edmonton got rid of what they perceived to be a problem n their team. Win-win for both sides. Why is that so difficult for you to understand?

If Neal remained a Flame the Flames would have to pay $23 million over the next 4 years to a player who is worse than useless to the team. ... and don't say that the Flames could buy him out as we all know that wasn't going to happen what with the aversion that ownership has to paying big bucks to players just to getting rid of them... and were talking $15.3 million bucks. Lucic, over the next 4 years will cost the Flames $13 million. Anyway you look at it that's a win for Calgary.

Treliving wanted to add size and toughness to the lineup. He gets that in Lucic. That's another win for Calgary. Calgary wanted to improve our 3rd line. Getting rid of Neal does that. Another win for Calgary. Calgary wanted to improve the collective team attitude in both the locker room and on the ice. Just getting rid of Neal does both of those and adding Lucic to the roster bumps it up even further. Another win for Calgary.

I really don't get what you think I don't understand. I am of the opinion that the Flames are likely better with Lucic than Neal on the roster and vice versa for the Oilers. That part is a win/win.

However, these value differential, I think both Flames fans and Oiler fans can agree that everyone expected the cost to get rid of Lucic would have been much higher (ie: a 2nd with no conditions vs a 3rd with unfavorable conditions or more salary retention). Heck, the current deal IMO would have only been palatable if the NMC was destroyed in the trade. It wasn't. We won on the Neal move and lost on the value given up/taken back via Lucic. Edmonton won with the Lucic move, a significantly lower Lucic move price paid and the lower risk/better fit of Neal.

Yeah, that's a terrible analogy. GMs don't trade guys without knowing what they have. It'd be more like trading clothes that don't fit for clothes that you think will fit.

And no Edmonton didn't get better from the Hall trade.

Lol, the clothes one isn't that much better, but I am pretty sure we got the gist of what each other was trying to say, even if ultimately we do not completely agree.

And I disagree about Edmonton not getting better from the Hall trade. Plenty of Oiler fans agree it was a move that was necessary to shore up a really bad d corps, but a horrific fleecing value wise.

2016-2017 Oilers d corps without Larsson IIRC:
- Klefbom (#2/3? but injury prone)
- Sekara (#2/3? but undersized + injury prone)
- Russell (undersized 4/5)
- Fayne (4/5 at best if even... probably 5/6)
- Gryba (4/5 at best if even... probably 5/6)
- Benning (4/5 at best if even... probably 5/6)
- Davidson (4/5 at best if even... probably 5/6)
- Nurse (a 4/5 at best at the time)
- Oesterle (5/6?)

Larsson filled a major gap between Russell and Sekara. IIRC, many Oiler fans were happy to have him after the trade, but also still admitted they felt like they should have gotten more for Hall. But that an off topic discussion for this thread.

 

[Rubi]

I really don't get what you think I don't understand. I am of the opinion that the Flames are likely better with Lucic than Neal on the roster and vice versa for the Oilers. That part is a win/win.

However, these value differential, I think both Flames fans and Oiler fans can agree that everyone expected the cost to get rid of Lucic would have been much higher (ie: a 2nd with no conditions vs a 3rd with unfavorable conditions or more salary retention). Heck, the current deal IMO would have only been palatable if the NMC was destroyed in the trade. It wasn't. We won on the Neal move and lost on the value given up/taken back via Lucic. Edmonton won with the Lucic move, a significantly lower Lucic move price paid and the lower risk/better fit of Neal.

Value is relative. One man's garbage could be another man't treasure. It all depends on what you have to trade and what you need.
If I'm on a relatively deserted and barren island and I have a real bad case of diarrhea which is giving me the shitz all day long and severely dehydrating me and someone else on the island has imodium and bottled water... how much good is that broken gold watch in my pocket doing me?? Not much. The smart thing is to trade the more valuable (in normal circumstances) gold watch for the pills and water. In this case, to me, the pills and water are more valuable than the broken watch.

 

[TFHockey]

Does anyone outside of Calgary try to spin this trade as a Flames win? Anyone?

 

[DFF]

Does anyone outside of Calgary try to spin this trade as a Flames win? Anyone?

Oilers won James Neal... enough said

Most people outside of Alberta would throw up with the thought of having Neal or lucic on their team

 

[JFHockey]

After deeply meditating on this trade I'd have to say Calgary losses because they have to protect Lucic in the draf. The owners chose to sacrifice a protected spot for $$$ (to be fair, lots and lots of $$$). Everything else between the players is pretty much a wash.

 

[Rubi]

After deeply meditating on this trade I'd have to say Calgary losses because they have to protect Lucic in the draf. The owners chose to sacrifice a protected spot for $$$ (to be fair, lots and lots of $$$). Everything else between the players is pretty much a wash.

Treliving implied in an interview that part of the trade deal was that Lucic would forgo his NMC at the time of the expansion draft. So no... Calgary won't have to protect Lucic at the draft and sacrifice a protected spot for lots and lots of $$$

 

[Ementy]

Before the trade: Neal >>> Eriksson >>>>> Lucic.

In all proposed swaps, everyone agreed Neal was the best player with the chance to return to form easiest to trade or buyout and put up points and were even laughing at a swap for Eriksson. OILZ NEED PULJU and a 1st UNPROTECTED to swap the bad contracts.

Now calgary fans after a 1 for 1. NEAL IS SHIT, GARBAGE, we probably win this trade. bahahaha sucker oilers.

Typical HF.

 

[Baxterman]

Before the trade: Neal >>> Eriksson >>>>> Lucic.

In all proposed swaps, everyone agreed Neal was the best player with the chance to return to form easiest to trade or buyout and put up points and were even laughing at a swap for Eriksson. OILZ NEED PULJU and a 1st UNPROTECTED to swap the bad contracts.

Now calgary fans after a 1 for 1. NEAL IS ****, GARBAGE, we probably win this trade. bahahaha sucker oilers.

Typical HF.

No everyone did not agree that Neal was the best player in the deal. Before this trade I would have gladly dealt Neal for Eriksson.

Also it is almost like every single Flames fan don't think the exact same way.

Anyways Neal is garbage, he was garbage before the deal and garbage after the deal.

Every Oilers fan before the trade "Neal sucks enjoy your stupid UFA over pay Calgary, LOL"

Every Oilers fan after trade- "Neal is the solution to our problems, top 6 winger, Holland is the GOAT, Neal for 40 goals this year"

 

[supsens]

Oilers fans watching looooch “this can’t get any worse”
Neal “hold my beer”.
Literally

 

[Jumptheshark]

Does anyone outside of Calgary try to spin this trade as a Flames win? Anyone?

Toronto media

 

[cheechoo]

Flames traded their worst forward for the Oilers 4th best forward and saved money on top of it.

W

 

[MessierII]

Flames traded their worst forward for the Oilers 4th best forward and saved money on top of it.

W

Lucic was our 4th best forward eh

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Can we get the gif of Zack G. From the hangover at the blackjack table with all the numbers and equations swirling around his head.

That is literally Flames fans right now still trying to justify this trade.

 

[Lunatik]

Can we get the gif of Zack G. From the hangover at the blackjack table with all the numbers and equations swirling around his head.

That is literally Flames fans right now still trying to justify this trade.

It's not that hard to understand.

See this?

That was Neal as a Calgary Flame.

If Lucic does ANYTHING positive, he will be an improvement.

 

[CupofOil]

Treliving implied in an interview that part of the trade deal was that Lucic would forgo his NMC at the time of the expansion draft. So no... Calgary won't have to protect Lucic at the draft and sacrifice a protected spot for lots and lots of $$$

Do you think Seattle is going to take him out of the goodness of their heart?
The Flames would have to add a pretty big sweetener even if Lucic waives. It's not like this is Marc Andre Fleury waiving his NMC.

 

[TFHockey]

It's not that hard to understand.

See this?
View attachment 246559

That was Neal as a Calgary Flame.

If Lucic does ANYTHING positive, he will be an improvement.

The only reasonNeale was available for Lucic was because he had a terrible, terrible season for Calgary last year. Prior to that he was a mortal lock for 20+ goals.

We KNOW Lucic can't play in the top six. We hoped and prayed that he would but it was undeniable he couldn't. He demonstrated that conclusively over three seasons. There is no top 6 upside for Milan Lucic.

Neal MIGHT still have top 6 upside. That's the hope, anyway. This possibility and the fact he won't have to be protected in the Seattle expansion draft makes this trade a clear win for Edmonton.

 

[jfhabs]

The only reasonNeale was available for Lucic was because he had a terrible, terrible season for Calgary last year. Prior to that he was a mortal lock for 20+ goals.

We KNOW Lucic can't play in the top six. We hoped and prayed that he would but it was undeniable he couldn't. He demonstrated that conclusively over three seasons. There is no top 6 upside for Milan Lucic.

Neal MIGHT still have top 6 upside. That's the hope, anyway. This possibility and the fact he won't have to be protected in the Seattle expansion draft makes this trade a clear win for Edmonton.

Lucic did put up 23g and 50 pts in his first season with the Oilers tho. 50 pts is top 6 numbers.
This trade was the worst contract of the league with retention for the 3rd or 4th worst without retention. Edmonton might come out on top, I would give them a slight edge depending on how the expansion draft plays out and if Calgary has to protect Lucic or not. On the ice, I think either player could bounce back and their marginal impact is quite similar. Neal might bring you more goals, but he isn't as dedicated to winning imo. Lucic brings more physicality in a bottom 6 role.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Oilers fans watching looooch “this can’t get any worse”
Neal “hold my beer”.
Literally

Flames fans after Neal gets bought out next year: wow, what an awful contract to buy-out.

Lucic contract: hold my beer

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Before the trade: Neal >>> Eriksson >>>>> Lucic.

In all proposed swaps, everyone agreed Neal was the best player with the chance to return to form easiest to trade or buyout and put up points and were even laughing at a swap for Eriksson. OILZ NEED PULJU and a 1st UNPROTECTED to swap the bad contracts.

Now calgary fans after a 1 for 1. NEAL IS ****, GARBAGE, we probably win this trade. bahahaha sucker oilers.

Typical HF.

Pretty much bang on.
As a Canucks fan I would have been angry if we had traded Eriksson for Lucic without getting a first or some other major asset back. And Eriksson is worse than Neal taking into account contracts.
Fans always try to justify a trade after the fact but before most thought Lucic was unmoveable without a major add on Edmonton’s part.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Lucic did put up 23g and 50 pts in his first season with the Oilers tho. 50 pts is top 6 numbers.
This trade was the worst contract of the league with retention for the 3rd or 4th worst without retention. Edmonton might come out on top, I would give them a slight edge depending on how the expansion draft plays out and if Calgary has to protect Lucic or not. On the ice, I think either player could bounce back and their marginal impact is quite similar. Neal might bring you more goals, but he isn't as dedicated to winning imo. Lucic brings more physicality in a bottom 6 role.

-that was 2 years ago
-Lucic got most of the points on the PP
-he got bumped from the top line by Patrick Maroon due to lack of production
-he not playing ahead of Gaudreau, Tkachuk or Bennett on the left wing so he's a 4th liner now

 

[TFHockey]

Lucic did put up 23g and 50 pts in his first season with the Oilers tho. 50 pts is top 6 numbers.
This trade was the worst contract of the league with retention for the 3rd or 4th worst without retention. Edmonton might come out on top, I would give them a slight edge depending on how the expansion draft plays out and if Calgary has to protect Lucic or not. On the ice, I think either player could bounce back and their marginal impact is quite similar. Neal might bring you more goals, but he isn't as dedicated to winning imo. Lucic brings more physicality in a bottom 6 role.

This team is in dire need or more goals.... Some kind of secondary scoring. If Neal gets 20 goals this year it will be a huge win for Edmonton. I think that is feasible.

Edmonton also has some other players who play with an edge so I don't think Lucic will be missed much in that area.

 

[Lunatik]

Do you think Seattle is going to take him out of the goodness of their heart?
The Flames would have to add a pretty big sweetener even if Lucic waives. It's not like this is Marc Andre Fleury waiving his NMC.

Did he say Seattle was going top take him? No, he did not.

The only reasonNeale was available for Lucic was because he had a terrible, terrible season for Calgary last year. Prior to that he was a mortal lock for 20+ goals.

We KNOW Lucic can't play in the top six. We hoped and prayed that he would but it was undeniable he couldn't. He demonstrated that conclusively over three seasons. There is no top 6 upside for Milan Lucic.

Neal MIGHT still have top 6 upside. That's the hope, anyway. This possibility and the fact he won't have to be protected in the Seattle expansion draft makes this trade a clear win for Edmonton.

Neal was not going to be in the top 6 in Calgary. It doesn't matter what he does in Edmonton, he was never going to do it here. I'm not saying Neal won't be better for you, he probably will be. I am saying Lucic (on paper) is better for us, which for the Flames is all that matters. Just like it doesn't matter to the Oilers how Lucic does because even if he bounces back, he wasn't going to do it there. This trade has the potential to be win-win. I really don't understand the need so many posters have to take shots at the other fan base for being happy about the move.