Confirmed Trade: [CGY/EDM] James Neal for Milan Lucic (12.5% retained) and a 2020 conditional 3rd round pick Part 4

[Lunatik]

When they say Lucic cannot be bought out due to the structure f his contract, what do they mean?

When buying out a player it is based on a a combination bonuses and annual salary. Bonuses are paid at 100% value, annual salary at 2/3 but spread over 2 years. So buying out Lucic comes with very little cap or cash savings. Although due to the salary structure, the cash savings aren't an issue for the Flames as there is only $16m remaining on Lucic's contract. It creates very strange looking buyout penalties.

For example, if Lucic is bought out in 2021, it would be buying out the final 2 years of his contract and we'd have a 4 year cap penalty. The buyout penalty structure and how it would affect us would look like this:

• 2021-22: $3.572,917 (cap savings of about $1.68m) - this is far form ideal, but with 1.68m we can sign a decent bottom 6 replacement.
• 2022-23: $4,885,417 (cap savings of about $365k) - this really sucks since the league minimum salary will be 750k by then.
• 2023-24: $510,417 (no cap savings since the contract would be over) - this is a negligible amount
• 2024-25: $510,417 (no cap savings since the contract would be over) - this is a negligible amount

Where as a more standard buyout without varying salaries and no bonuses would have a flay buyout. For example, if Neal were bought out in 2021, his buyout would carry a penalty of about 1.9m for 4 years.

 

[Lunatik]

I would have got rid of Lucic for a sack of rocks.

You have to be the DUMBEST GM IN THE LEAGUE or your ownership are the TIGHTEST wads there is to take Lucic lol

I bet BT was told from the cheapos above. I COULD NOT BELIEVE they got rid of Lucic. I would have popcorned him most games last year.

Can't even handle a pass at the blue line. Turns like a truck

At least Neal works out with McDavid. Turned down golfing to train, etc. MY GOD WHAT A TERRIBLE MOVE BY CALGARY.

just TERRIBLE LOL

It's this kind of uninformed and over the top reaction that has certain Flames fans digging their heels in.

Neal couldn't produce with any of Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk or Lindholm. His physical play is gone. His skating is gone. His shot is gone. He played with zero effort. Neal was no better than the Flames 13th forward. You complain about how terrible Lucic is, Neal was just as bad offensively and worse in every other aspect. It reached the point in the playoffs that Neal's lack of giving a f*** saw him in the press box for an elimination game.

It's a classic garbage for garbage change of scenery trade.

 

[Johnnybegood13]

It's this kind of uninformed and over the top reaction that has certain Flames fans digging their heels in.

Neal couldn't produce with any of Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk or Lindholm. His physical play is gone. His skating is gone. His shot is gone. He played with zero effort. Neal was no better than the Flames 13th forward. You complain about how terrible Lucic is, Neal was just as bad offensively and worse in every other aspect. It reached the point in the playoffs that Neal's lack of giving a **** saw him in the press box for an elimination game.

It's a classic garbage for garbage change of scenery trade.

Why bother man? every year for 2 decades Oiler fans spring to life in the summer for one reason or the other thinking "this year will be different" and aside from one phony run the years ended in disappointment, I for one have no problem with them thinking Neal is the next Kurri along side McGretzky because history says it's a failure made in northern Alberta.

 

[Reinhart]

I would have got rid of Lucic for a sack of rocks.

You have to be the DUMBEST GM IN THE LEAGUE or your ownership are the TIGHTEST wads there is to take Lucic lol

I bet BT was told from the cheapos above. I COULD NOT BELIEVE they got rid of Lucic. I would have popcorned him most games last year.

Can't even handle a pass at the blue line. Turns like a truck

At least Neal works out with McDavid. Turned down golfing to train, etc. MY GOD WHAT A TERRIBLE MOVE BY CALGARY.

just TERRIBLE LOL

ALSO, TO THE IMBECILES who juts compare the two and do not even look at the skillsets... How do you even evaluate talent. Not to mention Neals sh% being an anomaly

Please go watch another sport or please refrain from commenting on the trade. It is embarrassing.

Boy, are you in for a surprise.

Hint: Go look at the video for each goal he scored this past year. Abnormally low SH% you say? Take a look at it, and then I am positive you will come right back here and agree that it was actually inflated. No, don't reply to me. Don't insist that I - nor any other Flame fan - are imbeciles. Just go watch all his goals (won't take you long, I promise!). After you watch them, just do me a quick favour. Come back here and apologize with sincerity for calling us imbeciles, ok? Thanks.

 

[Darkwinter]

What I find funny was the Calgary fans for years were laughing at us cause of Lucic contract was such a bad one .now they are trying to spin it to benefit them and all they are doing is making themselves look bad

 

[Lunatik]

Boy, are you in for a surprise.

Hint: Go look at the video for each goal he scored this past year. Abnormally low SH% you say? Take a look at it, and then I am positive you will come right back here and agree that it was actually inflated. No, don't reply to me. Don't insist that I - nor any other Flame fan - are imbeciles. Just go watch all his goals (won't take you long, I promise!). After you watch them, just do me a quick favour. Come back here and apologize with sincerity for calling us imbeciles, ok? Thanks.

It's also funny in the set of videos for Lucic that he looks better than certain Oiler fans are claiming. I'm also moderately encouraged that the majority of Lucic's goals and points came in the second half of the season.

 

[Lunatik]

What I find funny was the Calgary fans for years were laughing at us cause of Lucic contract was such a bad one .now they are trying to spin it to benefit them and all they are doing is making themselves look bad

While this is true, Oilers fans also defended said contract and were laughing at the Neal contract from the start too. Just like we defended the Neal contract. It's something that happens with rival fan bases.

I don't think anyone is claiming Lucic's contract is benefiting us. In fact most is us will still admit it's a worse contract. Which is why there was retention and the conditional pick. It also helps that as Lucic's contract ages, it becomes less terrible due to it being front loaded. They are both god awful contracts.

 

[Jumptheshark]

What I find funny was the Calgary fans for years were laughing at us cause of Lucic contract was such a bad one .now they are trying to spin it to benefit them and all they are doing is making themselves look bad

Not just then. Lots of fans and media have done a 180

 

[Rubi]

I would have got rid of Lucic for a sack of rocks.

You have to be the DUMBEST GM IN THE LEAGUE or your ownership are the TIGHTEST wads there is to take Lucic lol

I bet BT was told from the cheapos above. I COULD NOT BELIEVE they got rid of Lucic. I would have popcorned him most games last year.

Can't even handle a pass at the blue line. Turns like a truck

At least Neal works out with McDavid. Turned down golfing to train, etc. MY GOD WHAT A TERRIBLE MOVE BY CALGARY.

just TERRIBLE LOL

ALSO, TO THE IMBECILES who juts compare the two and do not even look at the skillsets... How do you even evaluate talent. Not to mention Neals sh% being an anomaly

Please go watch another sport or please refrain from commenting on the trade. It is embarrassing.

 

[Captain Controversy]

It's gonna be a wait and see kinda year.
See if Neal can score again and see if lucic can be polorizing.

 

[CupofOil]

The only thing that makes this good for Edmonton is that they can buy out Neal easier than Lucic. Calgary wasn't going to buy out Neal. Calgary saves $500k in cap and gets some physical play, plus saves a lot of real money.

Both players suck, and may or may not rebound.

That's it. Everyone go home.

That pesky NMC thing is pretty darn important too, probably more important than the buy out flexibility.
On ice, it's probably a lose lose for both teams.

 

[CupofOil]

Why bother man? every year for 2 decades Oiler fans spring to life in the summer for one reason or the other thinking "this year will be different" and aside from one phony run the years ended in disappointment, I for one have no problem with them thinking Neal is the next Kurri along side McGretzky because history says it's a failure made in northern Alberta.

Most Oiler fans think the team is going to be awful next season and what exactly have the Flames done in the last 2 decades? Talk about throwing stones from glass houses.

 

[CupInSIX]

Can't wait till part 8: Lucic takes Manhattan.

We’ll be in the weird position of Flames fans hoping Neal rips it up as an Oiler... for one year at least.

For a 3rd? I think Flames fans will go with the spite option and hope he becomes another albatross for them.

 

[blankall]

That pesky NMC thing is pretty darn important too, probably more important than the buy out flexibility.
On ice, it's probably a lose lose for both teams.

Does it matter that much? A NMC is only relevant if another trade is in place. Who is taking either of these bums at this point?

 

[CupofOil]

Does it matter that much? A NMC is only relevant if another trade is in place. Who is taking either of these bums at this point?

Yes, it matters a ton when it comes to the expansion draft and it gives the flexibility to trade the player wherever and whenever the team wants. It at least presents more options to lose the NMC.

I don't even care that much about on ice contribution because I'm fully expecting Neal to stink. It's unloading that NMC that was a big relief.

 

[Fig]

What I find funny was the Calgary fans for years were laughing at us cause of Lucic contract was such a bad one .now they are trying to spin it to benefit them and all they are doing is making themselves look bad

It's still a bad contract. As mentioned in my post earlier, I think there's a few facets and not everyone is discussing the same thing on the same page or same paragraph.

1. Calgary vs Edmonton win the deal: Edmonton AINEC. (Only an idiot Flames fan of the highest regard would argue the Flames won the trade)
2. Calgary better with Lucic or Neal: Can argue Lucic who is a net zero would be better on Flames roster, rather than Neal who is a negative on Flames roster (this is what many Flames fans are arguing and really what the Media might have a leg to stand on, but if they're arguing contrary to #1 or #4, they're an idiot)
3. Edmonton better with Lucic or Neal: Neal AINEC. Neal just fits like a glove in Edmonton. (I feel like this is an obvious, but it might be missed with some of the pot shots some Flames fans are taking at Neal on his way out)
4. Both contracts suck. Not debatable. I don't even think Edmonton fans would argue Neal's contract sucks. However, it's obvious (and fair) you guys are rejoicing because of the improved flexibility Neal's contract comes with vs Lucic's contract (Fracking NMC...).

 

[Lunatik]

It's still a bad contract. As mentioned in my post earlier, I think there's a few facets and not everyone is discussing the same thing on the same page or same paragraph.

1. Calgary vs Edmonton win the deal: Edmonton AINEC. (Only an idiot Flames fan of the highest regard would argue the Flames won the trade)
2. Calgary better with Lucic or Neal: Can argue Lucic who is a net zero would be better on Flames roster, rather than Neal who is a negative on Flames roster (this is what many Flames fans are arguing and really what the Media might have a leg to stand on, but if they're arguing contrary to #1 or #4, they're an idiot)
3. Edmonton better with Lucic or Neal: Neal AINEC. Neal just fits like a glove in Edmonton. (I feel like this is an obvious, but it might be missed with some of the pot shots some Flames fans are taking at Neal on his way out)
4. Both contracts suck. Not debatable. I don't even think Edmonton fans would argue Neal's contract sucks. However, it's obvious (and fair) you guys are rejoicing because of the improved flexibility Neal's contract comes with vs Lucic's contract (Fracking NMC...).

Simply put, point #1 is stupid.

When determining if a team won a trade, it's stupid to look at it as team vs team or player vs player. Looking at how a player does in an environment different than your own team and deciding if you won or lost just doesn't make sense.

The only way to determine if a team won a trade is by asking, did the trade make my team better? If the Answer is yes, you won the trade. If you want to know if you lost a trade, you ask, did this trade make my team worse? If the answer is yes, you lost the trade. If you say no to both, you neither won nor lost.

Both teams can win a trade and both teams can lose a trade.

Neal could score 50 goals and it should have zero impact on whether or not the Flames won or lost the trade because there is no chance he would have done that with Calgary, so they didn't lose a 50 goal scorer, they lost a 7 goal scorer.

 

[Fig]

Simply put, point #1 is stupid.

When determining if a team won a trade, it's stupid to look at it as team vs team or player vs player. Looking at how a player does in an environment different than your own team and deciding if you won or lost just doesn't make sense.

The only way to determine if a team won a trade is by asking, did the trade make my team better? If the Answer is yes, you won the trade. If you want to know if you lost a trade, you ask, did this trade make my team worse? If the answer is yes, you lost the trade. If you say no to both, you neither won nor lost.

Both teams can win a trade and both teams can lose a trade.

Neal could score 50 goals and it should have zero impact on whether or not the Flames won or lost the trade because there is no chance he would have done that with Calgary, so they didn't lose a 50 goal scorer, they lost a 7 goal scorer.

Point 1 in isolation is not stupid. Failing to separate point 1 vs point 2 is how you end up with people who get laughed out of the room for the Hall for Larsson deal. Edmonton lost the trade badly. But Edmonton still ended up a better team by doing that trade.

It would be like a guy who has no use for an old vintage watch in original condition that still works reasonably well, so in his ignorance trades an old Rolex for an Apple watch because he can use the apps. Sure, he's happy in the sense that he has something that has far more functionality than the Rolex, but he sure as hell should have tried to get more than just an Apple watch in return.

 

[Big guns]

I would have got rid of Lucic for a sack of rocks.

You have to be the DUMBEST GM IN THE LEAGUE or your ownership are the TIGHTEST wads there is to take Lucic lol

I bet BT was told from the cheapos above. I COULD NOT BELIEVE they got rid of Lucic. I would have popcorned him most games last year.

Can't even handle a pass at the blue line. Turns like a truck

At least Neal works out with McDavid. Turned down golfing to train, etc. MY GOD WHAT A TERRIBLE MOVE BY CALGARY.

just TERRIBLE LOL

ALSO, TO THE IMBECILES who juts compare the two and do not even look at the skillsets... How do you even evaluate talent. Not to mention Neals sh% being an anomaly

Please go watch another sport or please refrain from commenting on the trade. It is embarrassing.

If sounding like an idiot was what you set out to do then Bravo!

 

[Cup or Bust]

Most Oiler fans think the team is going to be awful next season and what exactly have the Flames done in the last 2 decades? Talk about throwing stones from glass houses.

Yeah no one really cares what Neal does, if he plays well it is a bonus. There is no positive having Milan Lucic on an NHL team at this point unfortunately, so offloading his contract is all that matters. Even buying out Neal and saving 3 million of cap space is better then having a useless player in the lineup and an immovable contract.

 

[ShelbyZ]

IMO, the factor for the Flames was probably the real money saved and not having to give up any future's whatsoever to rid themselves of Neal.

I'm guessing they wanted Neal gone, refused to pay teams to take him with futures (picks/prospects/young players) and also refused to take on bad salary that cost more real money now or than Neal's buyout. The benchmark was probably the total cost of a Neal buyout ($15,333,333) plus the least amount of cost to put another player on the roster in his place (at least around $3M over 4 seasons).

After the Oilers paid Lucic's bonus for the coming season, and with the retention factored in, the Flames are on the hook for $14M in real money over the next 4 years. That's slightly less than Neal's $15M+ buyout and obviously less than the $23M due to him without it.

FWIW, a lot of that cost is a bit deferred as well. For the duration of the coming season, in real money the Flames will pay Lucic only $2.25M vs either Neil on the roster ($5.75M) or a Neal buyout and an additional player making at least league minimum in his place (at least $2,616,667). Even when you throw in Lucic's $2.5M bonus due on 7/1/20, The Flames still save $1M in real money over the next calendar year vs retaining Neal ($4.75M vs $5.75M).

Given the likely costs associated with their ongoing arena negotiations, maybe opening up that operating capital was valuable in ownerships eyes?

So yea...

From the Flames fans perspective.... A clear loss
From their hockey teams perspective.... Negligible to a draw
From Eugene Melnyk's (and CSEC) perspective... a clear WIN

 

[InfinityIggy]

From the Flames fans perspective.... A clear loss
From their hockey teams perspective.... Negligible to a draw
From Eugene Melnyk's (and CSEC) perspective... a clear WIN

What?

 

[Rubi]

It's still a bad contract. As mentioned in my post earlier, I think there's a few facets and not everyone is discussing the same thing on the same page or same paragraph.

1. Calgary vs Edmonton win the deal: Edmonton AINEC. (Only an idiot Flames fan of the highest regard would argue the Flames won the trade)
2. Calgary better with Lucic or Neal: Can argue Lucic who is a net zero would be better on Flames roster, rather than Neal who is a negative on Flames roster (this is what many Flames fans are arguing and really what the Media might have a leg to stand on, but if they're arguing contrary to #1 or #4, they're an idiot)
3. Edmonton better with Lucic or Neal: Neal AINEC. Neal just fits like a glove in Edmonton. (I feel like this is an obvious, but it might be missed with some of the pot shots some Flames fans are taking at Neal on his way out)
4. Both contracts suck. Not debatable. I don't even think Edmonton fans would argue Neal's contract sucks. However, it's obvious (and fair) you guys are rejoicing because of the improved flexibility Neal's contract comes with vs Lucic's contract (Fracking NMC...).

Calgary won the trade. Edmonton won the trade. Calgary got rid of a problem on their team and Edmonton got rid of what they perceived to be a problem n their team. Win-win for both sides. Why is that so difficult for you to understand?

If Neal remained a Flame the Flames would have to pay $23 million over the next 4 years to a player who is worse than useless to the team. ... and don't say that the Flames could buy him out as we all know that wasn't going to happen what with the aversion that ownership has to paying big bucks to players just to getting rid of them... and were talking $15.3 million bucks. Lucic, over the next 4 years will cost the Flames $13 million. Anyway you look at it that's a win for Calgary.

Treliving wanted to add size and toughness to the lineup. He gets that in Lucic. That's another win for Calgary. Calgary wanted to improve our 3rd line. Getting rid of Neal does that. Another win for Calgary. Calgary wanted to improve the collective team attitude in both the locker room and on the ice. Just getting rid of Neal does both of those and adding Lucic to the roster bumps it up even further. Another win for Calgary.

 

[Lunatik]

Point 1 in isolation is not stupid. Failing to separate point 1 vs point 2 is how you end up with people who get laughed out of the room for the Hall for Larsson deal. Edmonton lost the trade badly. But Edmonton still ended up a better team by doing that trade.

It would be like a guy who has no use for an old vintage watch in original condition that still works reasonably well, so in his ignorance trades an old Rolex for an Apple watch because he can use the apps. Sure, he's happy in the sense that he has something that has far more functionality than the Rolex, but he sure as hell should have tried to get more than just an Apple watch in return.

Yeah, that's a terrible analogy. GMs don't trade guys without knowing what they have. It'd be more like trading clothes that don't fit for clothes that you think will fit.

And no Edmonton didn't get better from the Hall trade.

 

[ShelbyZ]

It also isn't like the Flames can't control securing that conditional pick if/when Neal hits 21 goals and Lucic has less than 11...

[Day after Neal hits 21]:

Peters: Hey Looch, can you come to my office after practice today?
Lucic: Sure thing coach
Peters with Lucic in his office: You know Loochie, those ummm hits and that uhhh... oh yea... intimidation have been just suuuuuper super valuable to the team this season.
Lucic: You mean like that brawl I started against the Lightning when we were down by 3 goals in the 3rd?
Peters: Yea, gosh, that was great... So great and valuable that we don't want to lose that edge for the playoffs, you know? So we're going to let you rest up and take some games off for the rest of the year so you're fresh and ready to go in the playoffs. You know just incase we need somebody to get real intense during the handshake line after a hard fought series.