Series Talk: CDSF: Nashville Predators vs Carolina Hurricanes

[hockey diva]

Eddie O also calls Hawks games so he is biased to start with. He also loves the Pens.

Back to talk about our opponent on the ice...

 

[Armourboy]

Heard Hynes on the radio this morning, sounds like Arvy will most likely be back but not guaranteed.

Also don't be shocked if Tolvanen isn't in. Kind of got the feeling he's on the fence with him due to his more recent play.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Also don't be shocked if Tolvanen isn't in. Kind of got the feeling he's on the fence with him due to his more recent play.

I sort of get it since he hasn't really produced much since he came back from injury but that seems like a mistake to me. Presumably that would mean he's leaving Cousins/Richardson in the lineup over him which don't bring enough to justify the loss in power play skills Tolvanen brings. We're going to need at least an average power play to win this series and the only time its looked good all year was when him and Forsberg got it going.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Heard Hynes on the radio this morning, sounds like Arvy will most likely be back but not guaranteed.

Also don't be shocked if Tolvanen isn't in. Kind of got the feeling he's on the fence with him due to his more recent play.

I felt that coming. Tolvanen's 5v5 game isn't there yet. Our PP is a shit show that might not be worth investing in for this series.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I sort of get it since he hasn't really produced much since he came back from injury but that seems like a mistake to me. Presumably that would mean he's leaving Cousins/Richardson in the lineup over him which don't bring enough to justify the loss in power play skills Tolvanen brings. We're going to need at least an average power play to win this series and the only time its looked good all year was when him and Forsberg got it going.

This exactly. We need the PP goals. Even if you go JOFA-Granline-Herd then Tolvanen-Haula-Duchene, the thing is with that line you can always double-shift another LW in place of Tolvanen if you think he's struggling so much 5-on-5.

I don't see the need to shelter Tolvanen at all myself, mind you, I think he backchecks well and plays a nice little physical game, so this narrative of him struggling seems off to me. But I would absolutely keep him in the lineup over Cousins/Richardson. We need the PP threat.

If Tolvanen did anything wrong the last few games, then to me it was just that maybe he didn't shoot a few times when he should have, fell into a bit of a trap of trying to be too cute or pass the puck off deferring to linemates. But that's an easily correctible thing. Just drill SHOOT! into his head, make that a mantra.

 

[drwpreds]

This exactly. We need the PP goals. Even if you go JOFA-Granline-Herd then Tolvanen-Haula-Duchene, the thing is with that line you can always double-shift another LW in place of Tolvanen if you think he's struggling so much 5-on-5.

I don't see the need to shelter Tolvanen at all myself, mind you, I think he backchecks well and plays a nice little physical game, so this narrative of him struggling seems off to me. But I would absolutely keep him in the lineup over Cousins/Richardson. We need the PP threat.

If Tolvanen did anything wrong the last few games, then to me it was just that maybe he didn't shoot a few times when he should have, fell into a bit of a trap of trying to be too cute or pass the puck off deferring to linemates. But that's an easily correctible thing. Just drill SHOOT! into his head, make that a mantra.

Agree completely- Tolvanen out of the lineup makes no sense to me at all.

 

[Predsanddead24]

you can always double-shift another LW in place of Tolvanen if you think he's struggling so much 5-on-5.

Yeah I hadn't really thought of this but giving Forsberg a few extra shifts late in a game with Haula-Duchene should really be our plan regardless of who is in that slot in the lineup.

 

[bdub24]

This is where being an out of his depth coach is going to really suck. He thinks he stands a better chance with Cousins or Richardson than Goalvanen. Ugh. Frankly I’m also indifferent about RVs return unless he gets back to playing to his strengths. And it aint skating and taking shots from the dots.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

This is where being an out of his depth coach is going to really suck. He thinks he stands a better chance with Cousins or Richardson than Goalvanen. Ugh. Frankly I’m also indifferent about RVs return unless he gets back to playing to his strengths. And it aint skating and taking shots from the dots.

Well one thing I saw in those last couple Carolina games was the Return Of The Stretch Pass. And that's RV's bread and butter right there and imo part of the reason for his decline in production the last couple years has been the disappearance of that from our gameplan. So if that's going to be something we continue to use against Carolina, then I definitely want to see Arvy activated as part of that.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Well one thing I saw in those last couple Carolina games was the Return Of The Stretch Pass. And that's RV's bread and butter right there and imo part of the reason for his decline in production the last couple years has been the disappearance of that from our gameplan. So if that's going to be something we continue to use against Carolina, then I definitely want to see Arvy activated as part of that.

...and Arvy light. I love Tolvanen as much as anyone, but I think we win this series with a very specific game plan. I could see him not fitting that game plan. For as much as our PP has improved what success did we have against Carolina with our best 5 on the ice? That's an honest question I haven't been able to find the answer to.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

 

[101st_fan]

This is where being an out of his depth coach is going to really suck. He thinks he stands a better chance with Cousins or Richardson than Goalvanen. Ugh. Frankly I’m also indifferent about RVs return unless he gets back to playing to his strengths. And it aint skating and taking shots from the dots.

If he were living up to the Goalvanen nickname it would be one thing. One goal in his last ten games, two in his last twelve, six in his last twenty one with four of those coming in February. Since the team's turn around in results in mid-March, Tolvanen has three total PP goals. If his play on the PP is the logic to play Tolvanen then we'd need Carolina to take more penalties than the 3.5 per game they averaged during the regular season AND would need to up the conversion rate to around 25% ... against the team that had the 3rd best PK% in the league ... that is to get to about one goal a game from our PP.

 

[drwpreds]

Welp- apparently Tolvanen is not practicing today, and I just saw some comments from Poile on Twitter:

"Tolvanen knows he's part of the future, but we need more consistency from him..... Hasn't come back quite as strong after injury"

He even literally said he may need to sit a game or two.

So, like like it or not, looking like he probably is not going to be in game 1.

 

[Scoresberg]

I agree with this. The PP hasn’t been as good as before Tolvanen’s injury, I don’t think we will miss him all that much. Especially if Arvy comes back, I see Tolvanen coming out of the lineup.

 

[GoldOnGold]

If he were living up to the Goalvanen nickname it would be one thing. One goal in his last ten games, two in his last twelve, six in his last twenty one with four of those coming in February. Since the team's turn around in results in mid-March, Tolvanen has three total PP goals. If his play on the PP is the logic to play Tolvanen then we'd need Carolina to take more penalties than the 3.5 per game they averaged during the regular season AND would need to up the conversion rate to around 25% ... against the team that had the 3rd best PK% in the league ... that is to get to about one goal a game from our PP.

I think Tolvanen has looked good on the PP and has seriously helped with maintaining possession and setting up chances, even if he hasn't been rewarded on the scoresheet.

Besides, are we going to put Arvy back in that spot? He's been awful there all year.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

...and Arvy light. I love Tolvanen as much as anyone, but I think we win this series with a very specific game plan. I could see him not fitting that game plan. For as much as our PP has improved what success did we have against Carolina with our best 5 on the ice? That's an honest question I haven't been able to find the answer to.

The thing is, even if I didn't think Tolvanen was able to play that specific game plan, I'd have him in the lineup anyway, just because we do need a PP goal per game or thereabouts just as much as we need to click on the rest of the game plan. We need a lot of things. PP scoring is one of them, and our PP just looks dramatically better with Tolvanen on it. If he subsequently can't carry his weight as pertains to the rest of the game plan, then I maintain there are ways already mentioned to address that without taking Tolvanen out of the lineup.

Although I would also submit that any perception that he's not doing well or having trouble getting back up to speed after his return is basically picking on the young guy. Because if I was to really get critical about Forsberg's game since his return, or project what I might anticipate from Arvy, if I didn't go by the name on the back of the jersey, then they're probably right in the same boat as Tolvanen.

 

[You]

Yeah, it's not necessarily about having to have Tolvanen on PP1. It's "having" to replace him with Arvy in the same role that breaks PP1.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

tolvanen was never lighting it up 5 on 5. some of his worst 5 on 5 play after his injury came with johansen as his center. Tolvanen has decent speed and will lay the body. I totally disagree w/ sitting him from the PP perspective alone. we’re gonna need a PP to be at about 25% for the series to pull off the upset.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

tolvanen was never lighting it up 5 on 5. some of his worst 5 on 5 play after his injury came with johansen as his center. Tolvanen has decent speed and will lay the body. I totally disagree w/ sitting him from the PP perspective alone. we’re gonna need a PP to be at about 25% for the series to pull off the upset.

The chances of our PP% hitting 25 in this series are about the same as me winning the lottery.

 

[Predsanddead24]

With Tolvanen on the ice on 5 v 4 PP we have a GF/60 of 10.07 this season without him on the ice we have a GF/60 of 3.84. I know he has struggled recently but that is a big enough difference that here is no way I sit him to dress Cousins/Richardson/Grimaldi.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Sitting him is just messing with what got us here. Turning the PP back around, even if sporadically, was one of those components. Tolvanen is just a lot smarter and more composed out there than Arvidsson, and the only tweak he needs is to get back to using his shot more.

If Hynes is going to sit Tolvanen in favor of Brad Richardson... well, it's only 1 player, but it makes me pessimistic about the approach. What else are we going to see? Ryan Ellis playing 27 minutes in all situations? Matt Duchene in a bigger role? Those aren't the things that got us here, and if we forget those things, well, I'm just going to be shaking my head over here.

 

[drwpreds]

I don't know if I am alone on this, but I just don't know why Poile would make those comments? What purpose does it serve?

You can just make a general comment on how tough lineup roster decisions are, etc, etc- without specifically calling out a player who has been a big part of the season turnaround.

 

[101st_fan]

I think Tolvanen has looked good on the PP and has seriously helped with maintaining possession and setting up chances, even if he hasn't been rewarded on the scoresheet.

Besides, are we going to put Arvy back in that spot? He's been awful there all year.

Looking good and actually producing of late are different things. He has ten games with 27:27 of PP time without a PP goal ... one PP secondary assist.

What is the game plan? Who is healthy? Of those healthy players who has the greatest overall potential to positively impact the game within the plan? We, as a fanbase, knew that there would be tough choices as people came back from injury.

The Canes took an average of 3.5 penalties per game and killed off 85% of those. Beating them is done 5on5 which means finding the best line combinations to do that.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I don't know if I am alone on this, but I just don't know why Poile would make those comments? What purpose does it serve?

You can just make a general comment on how tough lineup roster decisions are, etc, etc- without specifically calling out a player who has been a big part of the season turnaround.

Excellent point. This would easily fit under a blanket statement. There are other guys who are going to be sitting - Grimaldi, Cousins, at least one of Harpur/Gudbranson/Benning - who are also pretty legit players in the lineup, and could be covered off under a generic "tough decisions" statement.

 

[Armourboy]

I'd also keep in mind in all of this everything is still up in the air. They still have a couple of days of practice left and Arvy is definitely not a guarantee to play either.

Hynes basically said this morning they still have decisions to make on the roster and you could make a legit argument for playing several guys that may not get too.

He also said the coaches are working with Tolvanen on what he needs to do. It's also entirely possible they are trying to make it harder for Carolina to gameplan against. It's also entirely possible that whatever injury he had is still causing him problems.

Competition is good in that it drives guys to perform to keep their spot. It's also bad in that it may cause some guys to hide some things.