Salary Cap: CBJ and the salary cap

[Toe Pick]

NHL/NHLPA talks on CBA include escrow cap, salary deferral for players - Sportsnet.ca

As part of the agreement, the salary cap will be kept close to the current $81.5 million for the next three seasons. There is potential for it to go up $1 million in 2022-23.

Yikes! If this is true there will be major ramifications for almost all teams. Maybe all.

I haven't yet played around with numbers as to how the Jackets will be affected but off the top of my head with Andy & PLD due new deals this year and OB next I can't imagine it will be good.

No mention of compliance buyouts or if the salary deferral will not count against the cap.

I actually think we're one of the teams that could take advantage of this cap crunch and welcome this news.

We were 5 million below the cap this year and there is potentially 23 million coming off the books after next year in Dubi, Foligno, Nash, Murray, and Savard. I could see resigning Foligno at a reduced rate and perhaps keep one of Savard or Murray. I also don't see Anderson back in the fold as all signs point to both parties ready to move on.

Got to figure a goalie is traded and then plan on raises for Jones, Werenski, Bjorkstrand, Gavrikov, and Dubois but even with those I think we're in a solid position. Hopefully Jarmo can take advantage of it.

 

[Xoggz22]

NHL/NHLPA talks on CBA include escrow cap, salary deferral for players - Sportsnet.ca

As part of the agreement, the salary cap will be kept close to the current $81.5 million for the next three seasons. There is potential for it to go up $1 million in 2022-23.

Yikes! If this is true there will be major ramifications for almost all teams. Maybe all.

I haven't yet played around with numbers as to how the Jackets will be affected but off the top of my head with Andy & PLD due new deals this year and OB next I can't imagine it will be good.

No mention of compliance buyouts or if the salary deferral will not count against the cap.

I don't see this as a bad thing for CBJ at all....unless the agents feel they still need to get the current price point for young players on long term deals. Then it becomes a problem for all teams with RFA signings.

Personally, I think this might actually push PLD into a 2 year bridge deal. Would work for both parties. Let the league rebound and give him a chance at a bigger payday (Although that the same time Z and Jones would be due as well). Andy is more likely to take his 1 year deal and move on as I don't see a lot of negotiating leverage (although he too can be screwed next year if the Cap is flat for another 2 years.

I think we'll see shorter term deals that can work for both parties and for CBJ that becomes a benefit as they could potentially take on an ugly contract and gain an asset or two. This is certainly an odd time...

 

[koteka]

Personally, I think this might actually push PLD into a 2 year bridge deal. Would work for both parties. Let the league rebound and give him a chance at a bigger payday (Although that the same time Z and Jones would be due as well).

I agree with this.

Same thing probably goes for Barzal, Reinhart. Cirelli is interesting because it is the Lightning. Plus he wasn’t a top pick and he is surrounded by so much talent, so he might want to go for lifetime security.

Nobody is going to get as big of a payday as they thought they were getting a few months ago. Taylor Hall might be the most impacted. Wonder what he could have gotten if he had asked the Devils to make him a serious offer. Pietrangelo and Holtby aren’t going to get as much as they expected either.

The young RFAs can bet on themselves and the league recovering. The reward is worth the risk. Those guys looking for their last big contract are going to miss out on some serious money.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Posting old info. Delete.

 

[LazyCircuits]

So the UFA bidding won’t be such an intense issue. I wonder if Taylor Hall gets the contact offers he would have expected six months ago. I don’t usually approve of signing free agents because of how wasteful and inefficient it is but a short term big money deal might be worth considering.

3x8m knowing we can trade him if needs be?

 

[majormajor]

So the UFA bidding won’t be such an intense issue. I wonder if Taylor Hall gets the contact offers he would have expected six months ago. I don’t usually approve of signing free agents because of how wasteful and inefficient it is but a short term big money deal might be worth considering.

3x8m knowing we can trade him if needs be?

We need a topliner and have the money, I think an offer at that level is obviously a good idea. I do think he'll get more elsewhere though. A lot of clubs can offer $8m per and many won't shy away from a long term deal. I would shy away from it though, I don't think Hall is that great of a player, and he's one knee injury away from losing his effectiveness.

 

[Xoggz22]

We need a topliner and have the money, I think an offer at that level is obviously a good idea. I do think he'll get more elsewhere though. A lot of clubs can offer $8m per and many won't shy away from a long term deal. I would shy away from it though, I don't think Hall is that great of a player, and he's one knee injury away from losing his effectiveness.

We actually potentially don't have the money depending on our RFA re-signs and contract structures. We currently have $$67MM committed to players without signing any of the 9 RFAs (includes PLD, Gavrikov and Andy). this also doesn't include the Dubinsky contract but that should go LTIR. If you consider no other changes but signing PLD and Gavrikov that could cost up to $12MM between the two of them. The other RFAs aren't going to be much more than interchangeable with those already "listed" on the roster (ie. Foudy for Matteau for example). If there is entertaining signing Andy long term that means a move needs made (could be Wennberg, Murray, Savard, etc.).

Money isn't as available as we think (next year only) so I want to see what happens before dreaming about bringing in a big fish. I still think this stoppage has put some clamps on pending RFAs looking to cash in (ie. PLD) and could push them to bridge deals that would be welcome for a change and allow the NHL to recover, then the big contract.

 

[EspenK]

I've been playing around with the tight cap for the next two years and actually I think the Jackets are in pretty good shape.

Some questions for you guys:

How much and for how long do you re-sign Foligno when his deal is up? Or do you let him walk?

Do you think 6 mm is enough to re-sign Bjork?

How much do you think it will take to extend Tex & Bemstrom? (assume they are making normal progression and don't explode or implode?)

Do you take a chance on a long term deal for Andy and if so how long & how much?

Do you buy out Wennberg this year at 1/3 of his remaining deal?

Would you pay PLD 7.5mm to extend?

I think there are lots of ways for Jarmo to play this. Just curious as to your thoughts to the above.

 

[koteka]

You sit down with Foligno and ask him what he wants. He’ll turn 34 at the start of the 21-22 season. Is he willing to go year to year in Columbus until he can’t go anymore? Or is he looking for 3 years and will end up somewhere else, like back in Ottawa or providing leadership in Seattle? Or does he chase a cup adding toughness and leadership as a 4th liner / depth forward for a team like Tampa. I get the sense that he is happy here, and he got paid on the last contract, so maybe they work it out.

Bjork - Depends on his play next year and how the league and economy bounce back.

Young guys who weren’t 1st round picks - Not too much on their next contracts. Think Josh Anderson.

Wennberg buy out - No.

I see PLD signing a bridge due to the economy. He’ll bet on himself and a rebound in the league’s revenues.

Also, there is the Savard question.

 

[punk_o_holic]

You sit down with Foligno and ask him what he wants. He’ll turn 34 at the start of the 21-22 season. Is he willing to go year to year in Columbus until he can’t go anymore? Or is he looking for 3 years and will end up somewhere else, like back in Ottawa or providing leadership in Seattle? Or does he chase a cup adding toughness and leadership as a 4th liner / depth forward for a team like Tampa. I get the sense that he is happy here, and he got paid on the last contract, so maybe they work it out.

Bjork - Depends on his play next year and how the league and economy bounce back.

Young guys who weren’t 1st round picks - Not too much on their next contracts. Think Josh Anderson.

Wennberg buy out - No.

I see PLD signing a bridge due to the economy. He’ll bet on himself and a rebound in the league’s revenues.

Also, there is the Savard question.

Ok I know everyone thinks Portzline has no connections but I was reading a Q and A on the Athletic last week and he made it seem like there's talk around the league where they feel Jarmo will shop both Anderson and Savard in the off season. If true, I wonder as a package or separately.

 

[majormajor]

How much and for how long do you re-sign Foligno when his deal is up? Or do you let him walk?

1 year $3.5m per, 2 year $3m per, etc...

Do you think 6 mm is enough to re-sign Bjork?

Now? Definitely. Might be more than enough. If they wait until after next season and he scores 35 goals, I'd say maybe not.

How much do you think it will take to extend Tex & Bemstrom? (assume they are making normal progression and don't explode or implode?)

I'm not sure what qualifies as explode but in any case Jarmo will bridge them. $2m-$4m per.

Do you take a chance on a long term deal for Andy and if so how long & how much?

I'd leave him a standing long-term offer $5m x 4.

Do you buy out Wennberg this year at 1/3 of his remaining deal?

No, 1/6. Under 26 buyout. If that isn't an option anymore (depends on the league's ruling) I'd look for a retained salary trade, and failing that I'd buy him out at 1/3.

Would you pay PLD 7.5mm to extend?

No. If that's his line in the sand, bridge him.

 

[majormajor]

Also, there is the Savard question.

I think it might depend on whether he's willing to take a bit of a discount. The most I'd go is another four years at his current salary ($4.25), but other clubs need shutdown RHD more and will pay more than that.

Ok I know everyone thinks Portzline has no connections but I was reading a Q and A on the Athletic last week and he made it seem like there's talk around the league where they feel Jarmo will shop both Anderson and Savard in the off season. If true, I wonder as a package or separately.

Portzline can pick up the phone anytime and call all kinds of friends he has around the league, and they'll chat about what might happen. He doesn't have sources inside the team who give him new info.

 

[EspenK]

Do you buy out Wennberg this year at 1/3 of his remaining deal?

No, 1/6. Under 26 buyout. If that isn't an option anymore (depends on the league's ruling) I'd look for a retained salary trade, and failing that I'd buy him out at 1/3.

Would you pay PLD 7.5mm to extend?

No. If that's his line in the sand, bridge him.

By and large I agree with most of your answers. The only one I kind of disagree with is the PLD question. He is the only sure fire top 2C we have. I'm guessing you'd be ok with 6 or 6.5? To me that isn't enough of a difference to not go the extra million.

Not sure where you get the 1/6 thing for Wennberg unless you're thinking the length of time the cap hit would remain? Right now his buyout is 1/3 of remaining salary which will go to 2/3 if Jarmo waits a year. Assuming the league takes age as of July 1. Otherwise Iagree with your retained salary deal or wait and buyout the last year if needed to fit under the tight cap.

Also I'm assuming either Murray or Savard is gone and won't be re-signed. Either expansion draft or traded.

 

[cslebn]

With a flat cap, I suspect most guys will bridge to get to the new cap on the other side and then want big raises. Someone like Bjork who's had a few injuries now might be persuaded to take a longer term but even then, if you're him, wouldn't you bank on your improvement and want to bridge to big payout as well?

 

[JacketsDavid]

Here's the thing I think cash will be king.
Most of the teams (like other sports) will be losing $$$ with no fans in stands and let's be honest it's unlikely to see fans until Mid 1Q 2021 at earliest. So I think free agents this off season will be largely out of luck. The top 10% will get paid as usual.

But you have to wonder (and MLB is similar) if no fans in stands what happens to minor league hockey next season? Can those teams survive or do they go dark for a year? If so where do the prospects play? If like MLB they will expand rosters and have 40-50 guys in Columbus (including top prospects).

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

Here's the thing I think cash will be king.
Most of the teams (like other sports) will be losing $$$ with no fans in stands and let's be honest it's unlikely to see fans until Mid 1Q 2021 at earliest. So I think free agents this off season will be largely out of luck. The top 10% will get paid as usual.

But you have to wonder (and MLB is similar) if no fans in stands what happens to minor league hockey next season? Can those teams survive or do they go dark for a year? If so where do the prospects play? If like MLB they will expand rosters and have 40-50 guys in Columbus (including top prospects).

If it is still empty arenas by that time I think you have to use the Canadian hub system to set up 2-3 groups of minor league franchises that just play 3-4 games a week to allow development. You might even combine it with some junior hockey.

 

[majormajor]

By and large I agree with most of your answers. The only one I kind of disagree with is the PLD question. He is the only sure fire top 2C we have. I'm guessing you'd be ok with 6 or 6.5? To me that isn't enough of a difference to not go the extra million.

I'd have no trouble with $6.5m per and probably be fine with $7m per, but not $7.5m per. "It's only an extra million" is easy to say now but I'm not going to do it.

Not sure where you get the 1/6 thing for Wennberg unless you're thinking the length of time the cap hit would remain? Right now his buyout is 1/3 of remaining salary which will go to 2/3 if Jarmo waits a year. Assuming the league takes age as of July 1. Otherwise Iagree with your retained salary deal or wait and buyout the last year if needed to fit under the tight cap.

Sounds like we're talking about the same thing - 1/6 of his cap hit is paid per year, over twice the length of his contract.

And I don't know if I even want to wait on a buyout for another year. We've just got so many bottom six centers right now, don't need the player.

 

[majormajor]

Here's the thing I think cash will be king.
Most of the teams (like other sports) will be losing $$$ with no fans in stands and let's be honest it's unlikely to see fans until Mid 1Q 2021 at earliest. So I think free agents this off season will be largely out of luck. The top 10% will get paid as usual.

In actual cash all the players are taking a big loss, the losses will come out in escrow. The new contracts won't look that different though. The cap is flat, not declining, it will just be a quick shock as teams had expected the cap to go up, so more teams than usual will have no space. I can still see a lot of teams with cap space.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Here's the thing I think cash will be king.
Most of the teams (like other sports) will be losing $$$ with no fans in stands and let's be honest it's unlikely to see fans until Mid 1Q 2021 at earliest. So I think free agents this off season will be largely out of luck. The top 10% will get paid as usual.

But you have to wonder (and MLB is similar) if no fans in stands what happens to minor league hockey next season? Can those teams survive or do they go dark for a year? If so where do the prospects play? If like MLB they will expand rosters and have 40-50 guys in Columbus (including top prospects).

If it is still empty arenas by that time I think you have to use the Canadian hub system to set up 2-3 groups of minor league franchises that just play 3-4 games a week to allow development. You might even combine it with some junior hockey.

These systems have changed before, often as a result of outside forces. Not to suggest it would be a good thing, just that it’s been navigated before. It will be interesting to see.

In actual cash all the players are taking a big loss, the losses will come out in escrow. The new contracts won't look that different though. The cap is flat, not declining, it will just be a quick shock as teams had expected the cap to go up, so more teams than usual will have no space. I can still see a lot of teams with cap space.

Right but if cash is king as David said, cap space won’t matter. As much.

 

[EspenK]

As far as cash goes, with the Seattle expansion fee and the new TV deal (assuming it is not affected by the pandemic) cash should not be as much of a problem as if neither were happening. Lots of interesting things to come.

 

[Doggy]

But you have to wonder (and MLB is similar) if no fans in stands what happens to minor league hockey next season? Can those teams survive or do they go dark for a year? If so where do the prospects play? If like MLB they will expand rosters and have 40-50 guys in Columbus (including top prospects).

I know Andrews is no longer the commissioner of the AHL but I believe he said 'no fans in the stands, no hockey'.

 

[Doggy]

I know its not about the CBJ but good read in THN about the five teams that might struggle the most with a flat cap and might have to wheel and deal.

Which five teams will a flat salary cap hurt the most in 2020-21? - TheHockeyNews

 

[majormajor]

These systems have changed before, often as a result of outside forces. Not to suggest it would be a good thing, just that it’s been navigated before. It will be interesting to see.



Right but if cash is king as David said, cap space won’t matter. As much.

Right - one thing I failed to consider is that the escrow payments don't go back to the team directly, it gets eventually divided up across the league. So if you sign a guy for $8m, and $3m goes to escrow, it's still almost $8m to the team signing him. Teams will get a big boost to keep revenues split 50/50 with the players but there will still be a strong incentive to not sign guys.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Here is a random article that popped up in my facebook feed:

Trade Bait: 3 trades for Johnny Gaudreau

To the Columbus Blue Jackets for Joonas Korpisalo, Ryan Murray and a draft pick.

Of course it doesn't say what draft pick. I doubt the Flames would do this alone for an often injured Murray and a still unproven Korpisalo but the mention of Anderson and Bennett might make it a bit more interesting.

 

[Viqsi]

Here is a random article that popped up in my facebook feed:

Trade Bait: 3 trades for Johnny Gaudreau

To the Columbus Blue Jackets for Joonas Korpisalo, Ryan Murray and a draft pick.

Of course it doesn't say what draft pick. I doubt the Flames would do this alone for an often injured Murray and a still unproven Korpisalo but the mention of Anderson and Bennett might make it a bit more interesting.

I don't think that site would pass muster on TR&FA.