Salary Cap: CBJ and the salary cap

[EspenK]

Here's a guesstimate of how the cap could play out over the next 2 years. Based on the numbers and what I think the extensions will be I think that Wennberg has to go at some point in the next two years. Other relief will come from Seattle's pick in the expansion draft and the possibility of trading Savard or Foligno or buying out the last year of their respective contracts. In any case I think the cap is close but manageable.

The one million dollar guys are not necessarily givens to be on the roster but the million dollars will be there in some form or the other.

	2019-2020	2020-2021
Jenner	3.75	3.75
Duchene	8.5	8.5
Foligno	5.5	5.5
Robinson	1	1
Atkinson	5.85	5.85
Hannikainen	1	1
Wennberg	4.9	4.9
Dzingel	5	5
Anderson	1.85	5.5
Bjorkstrand	2.5	2.5
Nash	2.75	2.75
PLD	0.894	6
Sedlak	1	1
Total Forwards	44.494	53.25
Defensemen
Murray	5	5
Jones	5.4	5.4
Savard	4.25	4.25
Harrington	1	1
Werenski	6	6
Nutivaara	2.7	2.7
Gavrikov	1	1
Total Defense	25.35	25.35
Goalies	6	6
Buyouts
Hartnell	1.25	1.25
Dubi	1.95	1.95
tyutin	1.458
Total Buyouts	4.658	3.2
Total	80.502	87.8
Cap @ 3% inc	81.885	84.34155
Cap @ 5% inc	83.475	85.97925

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

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[cslebn]

I'd worry that Duchene and Werenski may turn out to be low in that.

The buyout of Dubi is interesting. The other move that could happen is Savard or Nutivaara if Gavrikov comes in and plays well enough.

 

[Forepar]

I'd worry that Duchene and Werenski may turn out to be low in that.

The buyout of Dubi is interesting. The other move that could happen is Savard or Nutivaara if Gavrikov comes in and plays well enough.

Duchene - maybe, will depend on performance next 49 games (yes, 21 + 28, each series going 7 games) ;-). We may be able to afford a little more (see 3rd paragraph).

Werenski - More than $6M for the current version of #8? Not so much. For the potential Werenski (the one we saw the first 2 seasons), I agree would be smart to lock him up for as long as possible and that might take 6.5 given cap rising. But which version are we getting? I don't think it has sunk to the point of a bridge/prove it contract, but I don't seek Werenski getting more than $6M based on this year's performance on a contract with any significant term. And he might not demand it, wanting to show he's worth more and taking shorter term. Who knows.

Not bashing Wennberg directly, not sure what I think about him or what should happen. But what I think will happen is that he's got enough talent to garner some draft picks back, as it seems he is odd man out this summer (unless CBJ can't get Duchene re-upped), so possibly $3.9M more room than it looks ($3.9 being Wennberg's $4.9M less approximately $1M for his replacement (Foudy on an ELC?).

 

[majormajor]

I think that's a solid and reasonable set of predictions EspenK.

I would expect Duchene to be a little more than that but it's not that hard to trim salary in other places.

 

[blahblah]

I tend to disagree with some of the numbers and some of the assumptions. For example, if we're putting that much money into skaters, I doubt we'll be at 6 million in goalies. I appreciate the effort, but I don't see this as a realistic outcome. It's safe to say that either Wennberg or Jenner would likely be moved and so on.

 

[Old Guy]

You had Duchene 8.5. I think that is a little too low.
You had Dzingle at 5. I think that is a little too high.

I think you got the total about correct.

 

[InfiniteElement]

I read somewhere that Duchene was offered an 8x8 from Ottawa, he said the money/term wasn't the problem, but the question marks on where the franchise would be. Are we thinking he'd command more from us?

 

[EspenK]

I tend to disagree with some of the numbers and some of the assumptions. For example, if we're putting that much money into skaters, I doubt we'll be at 6 million in goalies. I appreciate the effort, but I don't see this as a realistic outcome. It's safe to say that either Wennberg or Jenner would likely be moved and so on.

Do you think more or less? I am thinking that we won't go in with an Elvis/Korpi combo at a combined 3 mill or so. I was figuring on picking up a veteran somewhere in the $4mm range. WEent a bit high to make sure the rest of the salaries fit.

 

[Jackets16]

Why is Murray at $5 million? That seems like a lot for a player who gets injured a lot.

 

[Doug19]

we're keeping Panarin, Duchene, and dzingel, figure it out

 

[EspenK]

we're keeping Panarin, Duchene, and dzingel, figure it out

NFW we're keeping Bread at this point.

 

[CBJx614]

I read somewhere that Duchene was offered an 8x8 from Ottawa, he said the money/term wasn't the problem, but the question marks on where the franchise would be. Are we thinking he'd command more from us?

I don't think so. He didn't wanna re-sign in Ottawa because they're rebuilding and he has to think of his future and family. Most of Columbus' are in their primes and the city is ideal for players with a family. I believe hes gotta good chance to re-sign

 

[MoeBartoli]

Nice post EspenK. While one might quibble a bit about any given player - as @Old Guy pointed out his own take on the two new pending free agents - it looks good in aggregate, to me the goalie number probably has the greatest margin of error (especially true if Bob shockingly remains a Jacket).

Just a few things that struck me:
* Gosh, still have Toots in the cap numbers
*Agree totally on Dubi buyout and your belief Wennberg goes (I'd rather pay slightly more for Duchene that not have him and still have Wennberg at $4.9M)
*While Gavorik has limited options, does the $1M bring him over?
*Similar to @Forepar, the $6M for Werenski gets my attention. That would put him in the top 20 DMen salaries, something he's not (Before everyone jumps on me, ask if you feel he's played like a top pair guy this year)

Here's hoping Jarmo can keep Duchene and Dzingel.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

I believe the cap for next season is projected to be 83 million. Up 3.5 from the current 79.5.

 

[EspenK]

Nice post EspenK. While one might quibble a bit about any given player - as @Old Guy pointed out his own take on the two new pending free agents - it looks good in aggregate, to me the goalie number probably has the greatest margin of error (especially true if Bob shockingly remains a Jacket).

Just a few things that struck me:
* Gosh, still have Toots in the cap numbers One More Year
*Agree totally on Dubi buyout and your belief Wennberg goes (I'd rather pay slightly more for Duchene that not have him and still have Wennberg at $4.9M)
*While Gavorik has limited options, does the $1M bring him over? Not sure about this. I think he is subject to ELC rules but not sure.
*Similar to @Forepar, the $6M for Werenski gets my attention. That would put him in the top 20 DMen salaries, something he's not (Before everyone jumps on me, ask if you feel he's played like a top pair guy this year). Yeah, this one is, as someone else mentioned, pay him what it takes to lock him up at a "reasonable" or make him do a bridge and then be hit for a higher amount later. Maybe you can lock him up for a 5 or 6 year deal at Jones like numbers. My main reason for showing 6 was to put most guys at or near their max to see where it all wound up. Not a slam dunk by any means but I feel good that all the guys can be resigned if money is the only issue.

On a side note he'd only have to be one of the top 62 to be a top pair guy by one way of looking at it. In my mind I'd go for a 6 year deal and try to stay at 6 or under. I think he'll be worth it.

Here's hoping Jarmo can keep Duchene and Dzingel.

See above for responses to Moe.

Jackets should be ok from a cap perspective for at least a few years.

 

[blahblah]

Do you think more or less? I am thinking that we won't go in with an Elvis/Korpi combo at a combined 3 mill or so. I was figuring on picking up a veteran somewhere in the $4mm range. WEent a bit high to make sure the rest of the salaries fit.

Much less. We might pick up a veteran, but if you notice a guy like Kinkaid isn't much over 1 million. Goalie #24 is running at 4 million. We'd mainly be looking at someone to take a spot as we develop our goalies. I don't think we'd be looking at a starting goal tender if we're running that much on skaters.

I think the days of letting developing goalies sit on our roster as a backup are coming to an end. What we did with Korp was just silly. I'm not sure he's on the team next season, at least not as a contender for starting goalie.

 

[CBJ VGK]

Nice breakdown. Seems pretty accurate.

I know it's a real longshot, but does anyone have any idea what the salary cap scenario would look like to sign Dzingel, Duchene AND Panarin?

I assume we would have to part with one or more of the following players: Wennberg, Nash, Jenner, Savard?

 

[Multigrain]

I read somewhere that Duchene was offered an 8x8 from Ottawa, he said the money/term wasn't the problem, but the question marks on where the franchise would be. Are we thinking he'd command more from us?

Yes, he will since he has now seen the Mark Stone deal.

 

[MFRONE]

I’m not so sure Werenski is even on this team next season.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I’m not so sure Werenski is even on this team next season.

He’s going to quit hockey to become a pro Fortnite player?

 

[DJA]

Jarmo can't get a sentence out without mentioning Werenski, so there is ZERO chance he's going anywhere anytime soon.

 

[MFRONE]

Jarmo can't get a sentence out without mentioning Werenski, so there is ZERO chance he's going anywhere anytime soon.

If the UFA forwards walk, the best way to replace the offense is to move ZW

 

[koteka]

Random comments:

I see a scenario where we offer more than anyone else and get Panarin for 7 years when he decides money and winning are pretty important. And we end up better off in the long run than if we had signed him for 8 years.

I also see a scenario where Bob’s best offer is from us. Carter Hart makes Philly less likely to make a big offer. What if Florida decides to trade for Quick?

I hate buy outs. I don’t think we need to buy anyone out next year.

I don’t think Duchene is here next year unless we way overpay.

I think we may be a team that can steal a college senior or two who make look at our lack of draft picks as a plus. Especially if a couple of the UFA forwards leave.

 

[CharlotteJacket]

Since we're talking about salaries. Can someone explain the process and the people involved in negotiating contracts? I thought I read somewhere it was an assistant (Zito?) who negotiates contracts and not Jarmo, which makes absolutely no sense to me but what do I know. Does anyone know for sure? Also, I'm not sure how it will go over in the locker room if the CBJ offer Zach more than Seth makes when those two, at least for this season, aren't comparable.

 

[majormajor]

I actually think these contract projections are pretty much spot on. I don't agree with myself half the time but today I agree with EspenK.

Nice breakdown. Seems pretty accurate.

I know it's a real longshot, but does anyone have any idea what the salary cap scenario would look like to sign Dzingel, Duchene AND Panarin?

I assume we would have to part with one or more of the following players: Wennberg, Nash, Jenner, Savard?

Super long longshot, but I'll give my answer anyways.

The easy way to do it is to unload Wennberg (-$5m) and Nash (-$2m over replacement) and just run with Merzlikins and Korpisalo (costs $4m less than veteran alternatives.) That's fine for next year. The following year, you'll have to unload another deal, and at that point Seattle might do the choosing for us. I say "easy" knowing you might need to chip in assets to move those overpaid guys, but they are useful players and not unmovable at the right price.

I could be wrong, if Merzlikins is on his ELC, his cap hit will be ~$1m, but he's probably going to trigger ELC bonuses if he's a starter (up to $2m), which will roll over to the following year's cap hit if it exceeds the current year cap limit.