Career: Pavel Datsyuk or Patrick Kane?

[MacMacandBarbie]

For example 07-10:
Pavel Datsyuk with Lidström: gf/60 3.47 ga/60 1.86 gf% 65.12
Pavel Datsyuk w/o Lidström: gf/60 3.34 ga/60 1.99 gf% 62.69
Nicklas Lidström w/o Datsyuk: gf/60 2.49 ga/60 1.89 gf% 56.85

Peak Datsyuk was phenomenal at impacting goal differential.

Maybe he was, but this stat doesn’t illustrate it. Can we see how those stats compare to Kane? No, because Kane didn’t play on the red wings from 2007-2010.

 

[Rengorlex]

Maybe he was, but this stat doesn’t illustrate it. Can we see how those stats compare to Kane? No, because Kane didn’t play on the red wings from 2007-2010.

Yeah, he just played on the lowly Chicago Blackhawks.

 

[TaLoN]

For example 07-10:
Pavel Datsyuk with Lidström: gf/60 3.47 ga/60 1.86 gf% 65.12
Pavel Datsyuk w/o Lidström: gf/60 3.34 ga/60 1.99 gf% 62.69
Nicklas Lidström w/o Datsyuk: gf/60 2.49 ga/60 1.89 gf% 56.85

Peak Datsyuk was phenomenal at impacting goal differential.

And who were the rest of the players on the ice in those scenarios? We're not talking about a D-pair here... The impact of a forward + a D-man is not at all clear with that stat because you're still talking about too much of a combined team stat. They're not similar scenarios all the time and forward lines end up varying quite a bit more than top pair defense does.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Datsyuk was playing 3rd and fourth line, pretty sure Kane wouldn't be playing ahead of Fedorov or Yzerman either, so that point is broken.

If Datsyuk put up 72 points in the regular season like Kane did his first year, he absolutely would have been slotted into a 1st or 2nd line winger role for that run.

 

[TaLoN]

Yeah, he just played on the lowly Chicago Blackhawks.

Yes, a much less stacked team than the Wings were.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Yeah, he just played on the lowly Chicago Blackhawks.

It doesn’t matter what team he was on, you can’t use gf/ga to compare two players on different teams.

 

[Rengorlex]

It doesn’t matter what team he was on, you can’t use gf/ga to compare two players on different teams.

How about identifying how much a player tilts the goal differential within his own team? In relative goal differential, Datsyuk is again significantly better than Kane.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

How about identifying how much a player tilts the goal differential within his own team? In relative goal differential, Datsyuk is again significantly better than Kane.

They are still playing with completely different players, in a completely different system. gf/ga is an ‘alright’ stat if comparing how two players on the same team perform with certain teammates and deployments. Otherwise it’s a team stat that’s completely useless to associate to a player.

 

[Rengorlex]

And who were the rest of the players on the ice in those scenarios? We're not talking about a D-pair here... The impact of a forward + a D-man is not at all clear with that stat because you're still talking about too much of a combined team stat. They're not similar scenarios all the time and forward lines end up varying quite a bit more than top pair defense does.

Well nothing is clear. To answer that question we can look at regression models that attempt to isolate the impact of every player on the ice with all possible context taken into account. Obviously this is a very ambitious attempt, but strangely all of the models seem to agree that Datsyuk was an extremely strong defensive player.

Maybe the Selke voters were on to something when they gave Datsyuk three Selke trophies.

 

[lucaseider]

If Datsyuk put up 72 points in the regular season like Kane did his first year, he absolutely would have been slotted into a 1st or 2nd line winger role for that run.

That's stupid, they are not gonna move their young center to wing for any reason. The more you post, the more sure I am you never saw Datsyuk play.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Maybe the Selke voters were on to something when they gave Datsyuk three Selke trophies.

It’s been 20 years since someone won the Selke with less than 50 points. If it was actually about best defensive forward without a consideration to points, Phillip Danault would have been a finalist a couple times at this point.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

That's stupid, they are not gonna move their young center to wing for any reason. The more you post, the more sure I am you never saw Datsyuk play.

If their young center was an offensive dynamo putting up 72 points(which would have been 2nd place on the team) he absolutely would have been slotted up for a boost in scoring. It’s extremely common. It’s almost like you’ve never seen a young center get slotted to wing before.

 

[Cursed Lemon]

Pavel Datsyuk brings something very few other players in the league do when he's on the ice - a sense of safety.

 

[TaLoN]

Pavel Datsyuk brings something very few other players in the league do when he's on the ice - a sense of safety.

Patrick Kane brings something very few other players in the league do when he's on the ice - a sense of fear in the opposition, even if you've been outplaying their team, because you just know the Kane dagger is coming.

 

[norrisnick]

Patrick Kane brings something very few other players in the league do when he's on the ice - a sense of fear in the opposition, even if you've been outplaying their team, because you just know the Kane dagger is coming.

I've sensed that feeling before...


Not posting with regards to the debate one way or another, but notions of Kane instilling fear in the opposition needs to be tempered a bit.

 

[TaLoN]

I've sensed that feeling before...


Not posting with regards to the debate one way or another, but notions of Kane instilling fear in the opposition needs to be tempered a bit.

Instilling fear if being daggered doesn't in any way mean physically, it means on the scoreboard. It's why the defense focuses on him SO MUCH. Franzen does that to Kane to try to get into Kane's head to try to get him off his game... they're trying to do anything to get him to not score that dagger goal.

 

[Cursed Lemon]

Patrick Kane brings something very few other players in the league do when he's on the ice - a sense of fear in the opposition, even if you've been outplaying their team, because you just know the Kane dagger is coming.

There are more Kanes in the league than Datsyuks.

 

[TaLoN]

There are more Kanes in the league than Datsyuks.

Yes, there is 1 Patrick Kane, there are zero Datsyuks.

 

[newfy]

Exactly, that’s you counting team stats to prop up Datsyuk. Lidstrom/Osgood had a bigger impact on the goals against while Datsyuk was on the ice than Datsyuk ever did.

Every single player on the wings had Osgood in net, why were Datsyuks numbers that godly?

And everything is a team stat. Youre relying on offensive numbers for Kane, when he had a team that could put him in strictly offensive minutes. Its hockey, literally everything boils down to the team.

At the end of the day, Datsyuks team scored way more on the other team than they did on him while he was on the ice. Kanes team did not. You can pretend Osgood was the reason for that I guess, but at the end of the day you win by having that ratio in your favour. It more in Datsyuks favour than it was for Kanes.

Once again thats not even me saying Datsyuk was better in the playoffs, but reading a line on a hockeydb page isnt the argument you think it is

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Every single player on the wings had Osgood in net, why were Datsyuks numbers that godly?

Well they weren’t that godly, it’s not like he led the team every year. You also have to take into account that Lidstrom has like triple the penalty kill time that Datsyuk has, and Zetterberg always had more short handed time as well than Datsyuk. One of the many flaws of the gf/ga stats.

And everything is a team stat. Youre relying on offensive numbers for Kane, when he had a team that could put him in strictly offensive minutes. Its hockey, literally everything boils down to the team.

Well this is just factually incorrect.

At the end of the day, Datsyuks team scored way more on the other team than they did on him while he was on the ice. Kanes team did not. You can pretend Osgood was the reason for that I guess, but at the end of the day you win by having that ratio in your favour. It more in Datsyuks favour than it was for Kanes.

Once again thats not even me saying Datsyuk was better in the playoffs, but reading a line on a hockeydb page isnt the argument you think it is

Osgood, Lidstrom, Rafalski, Zetterberg, Babcock’s system. Lots of factors go into the gf/ga, it’s a terrible stat and you’re silly for using it.

 

[norrisnick]

This is a momentous occasion for Chris Osgood. I'm pretty sure this is the first time in the history of the internet that he's been used in an argument stating that he, Chris Osgood, propped up someone else's stats.

 

[Rengorlex]

Osgood, Lidstrom, Rafalski, Zetterberg, Babcock’s system. Lots of factors go into the gf/ga, it’s a terrible stat and you’re silly for using it.

All of that applies to points too.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Without making any specific comments on Kane vs Datsyuk, here are a few stats from @pnep that speak to Kane's ability to step up big playoff games:

Kane ranks 7th all-time in points per game in playoff elimination games (min 25 games) - behind only Gretzky, Lemieux, Perreault, Messier, Kurri and Richard. Making any type of reasonable adjustments for the leaguewide level of offense, he's probably behind only The Great One, Le Magnifique, and Rocket Richard.

Kane has the 3rd largest increase all-time in scoring in playoff elimination games (vs non elimination games) - min 25 games played, behind only Maurice Richard and Paul Holmgren. (Other players who look very good according to that metric include Kurri, Zetterberg, Lemieux, Messier, Hull, and Howe).

Kane had 49 points in playoff elimination games. For context, Mike Bossy has 52 (in five more games, in a much higher scoring era). Steve Yzerman has 53 (in 18 more games). Sidney Crosby has 50 (in 14 more games). Joe Sakic has 46 (in 11 more games). Doug Gilmour has 51 (in 12 more games). Kane's ability to score during big playoff games is matched by a very small number of players throughout NHL history.

 

[bsu]

Kaner

 

[Hockey Outsider]

The findings were actually quite the opposite when tested.

View attachment 582552
View attachment 582550

Wading into a Minefield: Why On-ice Sv% Stats May Not Be Completely Meaningless

How Controlling for Team & Goaltender Changes Can Improve the Predictive Value of Sv%RelTM / RelSv%

originalsixanalytics.com

I'm not pretending to be an expert on this, but I haven't seen any modern analysis that doesn't use xga instead of shots against as it's basis for defensive evaluation.

I finally had time to read this article. It's an interesting study, and it challenges the status quo (which I like). The "on ice" explanation (about how forwards are more specialized than defensemen) makes sense. My biggest hesitation is, and I'm sure you'd agree, the sample size is quite small. I'd be interested in seeing if some could (or already has) repeated this finding looking at a large data set.

(To bring this back on topic - it seems obvious that Kane had the better career. But if I was given the choice between five years of Kane (in his prime) and five years of Datsyuk (in his prime), it's a tough call. I definitely appreciate the value of Datsyuk's two-way play (which is much stronger than Kane's), but I'd probably still go with Kane in the end (who was healthier and was a tremendous playoff performer).