Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[Silky mitts]

Last years what— #9? — got Debrincat.

So something along those lines?

Better draft this year.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Last years what— #9? — got Debrincat.

So something along those lines?

Last year DeBrincat was traded for 7, 39, and a 2024 third. He was also 23 and had two 40G seasons under his belt.

 

[Calicaps]

Last years what— #9? — got Debrincat.

So something along those lines?

someone, maybe @twabby, did mention that #9 picks have a better track record that #8s, curiously enough

 

[twabby]

someone, maybe @twabby, did mention that #9 picks have a better track record that #8s, curiously enough

It's almost surely just an oddity rather than #9 overall actually being more valuable than #8.

I think grouping #8-10 overall like @NobodyBeatsTheWiz did in this post is probably a more comprehensive way at looking at the value of #8:

GDT: - 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

Fair enough, though a possible top-10 pick (i.e. at the TDL) isn't as valuable as a guaranteed #8 post-lottery drawing. Right, how many guys are worth that pick if they got Sandin at $1.4M for around the 30th pick? I just think it’d have to be someone so good that it’s less than 50% likely...

forums.hfboards.com

I don't know. I feel like there is still a lot of junk in that group and only a few true star talents. Even really good players like Timo Meier and Trevor Zegras took 2 years after they were drafted before really making an impact. Is it really in Washington's best interest to draft and develop a player who almost surely won't be making a big impact until the final year of Ovechkin's contract when he's 40 years old, and that's if they hit on their pick?

I'd heavily lean toward trading the pick unless someone in the Big 4 falls to them.

 

[g00n]

I don't understand how we seem to lament the lack of top 10 picks, and then when we get one we talk about trading it. We bash the FO for not scoring big on late rounders, but want to trade back anyway.

Unless they're packaging that pick to move up and move out a guy like Kuzy, I say use it.

 

[Silky mitts]

It's almost surely just an oddity rather than #9 overall actually being more valuable than #8.

I think grouping #8-10 overall like @NobodyBeatsTheWiz did in this post is probably a more comprehensive way at looking at the value of #8:

GDT: - 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

Fair enough, though a possible top-10 pick (i.e. at the TDL) isn't as valuable as a guaranteed #8 post-lottery drawing. Right, how many guys are worth that pick if they got Sandin at $1.4M for around the 30th pick? I just think it’d have to be someone so good that it’s less than 50% likely...

forums.hfboards.com

I don't know. I feel like there is still a lot of junk in that group and only a few true star talents. Even really good players like Timo Meier and Trevor Zegras took 2 years after they were drafted before really making an impact. Is it really in Washington's best interest to draft and develop a player who almost surely won't be making a big impact until the final year of Ovechkin's contract when he's 40 years old, and that's if they hit on their pick?

I'd heavily lean toward trading the pick unless someone in the Big 4 falls to them.

8-10 stand out in 2015 with 3 All stars, everything I’ve seen indicates this is the best draft since at least 2015, that post only makes me want to hold on to the pick more based on the relative value of what the 7th pick netted last year in a bad draft

 

[Calicaps]

I don't understand how we seem to lament the lack of top 10 picks, and then when we get one we talk about trading it. We bash the FO for not scoring big on late rounders, but want to trade back anyway.

Unless they're packaging that pick to move up and move out a guy like Kuzy, I say use it.

I think whether it's a top 10 pick or a great young player, what we should really be focused on is the best use of our assets to improve the team now and for the future.

 

[twabby]

8-10 stand out in 2015 with 3 All stars, everything I’ve seen indicates this is the best draft since at least 2015, that post only makes me want to hold on to the pick more based on the relative value of what the 7th pick netted last year in a bad draft

But even those all-stars took a few years before they broke out.

If the goal is to compete while Ovechkin is still a Capital (my preference), then I don’t think holding onto the pick does anything because unless they get extremely lucky the pick won’t be contributing for at least a few years, when Ovechkin is in his 40s.

If the goal is to make the team more competitive in the long-term then holding onto the pick certainly makes more sense. I’m not as interested in the long-term, but it’s a perfectly valid strategy as well.

 

[Silky mitts]

But even those all-stars took a few years before they broke out.

If the goal is to compete while Ovechkin is still a Capital (my preference), then I don’t think holding onto the pick does anything because unless they get extremely lucky the pick won’t be contributing for at least a few years, when Ovechkin is in his 40s.

If the goal is to make the team more competitive in the long-term then holding onto the pick certainly makes more sense. I’m not as interested in the long-term, but it’s a perfectly valid strategy as well.

Would you have traded the 1st, (top 2 protected) a 2nd, and a 4th for Chychrun? He could have helped them make the playoffs this year and the next 2 at a set, reasonable AAV. That’s the starting point since that probably would have gotten it done, but we potentially only have 2/3 as many playoff runs with Ovy left, and the pick has moved from 12-14 to 8. So you need to get back a better player and/or better contract.

But 2nds and 3rds of which they have extra the next few years? Much easier to win those trades or at least to not get crushed.

 

[twabby]

Would you have traded the 1st, (top 2 protected) a 2nd, and a 4th for Chychrun? He could have helped them make the playoffs this year and the next 2 at a set, reasonable AAV. That’s the starting point since that probably would have gotten it done, but we potentially only have 2/3 as many playoff runs with Ovy left, and the pick has moved from 12-14 to 8. So you need to get back a better player and/or better contract.

But 2nds and 3rds of which they have extra the next few years? Much easier to win those trades or at least to not get crushed.

I’m not as high on Chychrun as others so no I wouldn’t have made that trade. I much prefer the move they made to get Sandin who I think has higher upside than Chychrun.

I think they can get quite a bit for #8 overall. I think they need to think hard about trading Wilson as well. I think those two assets could bring back significant, transformative upgrades if they’re willing to pull the trigger.

 

[Rayquaza64]

Hi. New poster and time traveler here. I have come from the future to spread good news. Unfortunately, I can only spread it through a tankathon screenshot otherwise I’ll get arrested for saying too much.

 

[WanderingCapsFan]

Hi. New poster and time traveler here. I have come from the future to spread good news. Unfortunately, I can only spread it through a tankathon screenshot otherwise I’ll get arrested for saying too much.

Have you run this past Bettman and Mario?

 

[Corby78]

Something nobody seems to be mentioning, we also have 4 seconds and 4 thirds the two drafts following. I would be much more open to using those in a trade for “now” than the 8th.

 

[usiel]

Something nobody seems to be mentioning, we also have 4 seconds and 4 thirds the two drafts following. I would be much more open to using those in a trade for “now” than the 8th.

2nd and 3rd values seem like mainly ammunition for in season trades but don't have the recollection to see how much they translate into substantive off season trades.

 

[Misery74]

But even those all-stars took a few years before they broke out.

If the goal is to compete while Ovechkin is still a Capital (my preference), then I don’t think holding onto the pick does anything because unless they get extremely lucky the pick won’t be contributing for at least a few years, when Ovechkin is in his 40s.

If the goal is to make the team more competitive in the long-term then holding onto the pick certainly makes more sense. I’m not as interested in the long-term, but it’s a perfectly valid strategy as well.

We aren’t going to be competitive by making a single trade. We need to prepare for the post Ovechkin future.

This window is closed.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

A single trade? Where is it written that is the plan? Plenty of time for more tanking in 3 years.

 

[twabby]

We aren’t going to be competitive by making a single trade. We need to prepare for the post Ovechkin future.

This window is closed.

In that case they need to blow it up. Guys like Wilson, Carlson, Oshie, Dowd, Jensen, and Kuemper need to be traded to recoup value to prepare for the post-Ovechkin future because none of those guys figure to be key contributors by then. You probably need to trade Ovechkin given that he is unlikely to be ok with a rebuild, and that means he'd reach 895 with another team.

The last statement is why I'm not really onboard with a rebuild right now, even if in the long-term it might make sense. I respect those who think they need to prepare for the post-Ovechkin future starting now, but the logical conclusion of that statement is that they need to prepare to lose Ovechkin now as well.

 

[pman25]

Good morning, welcome to the offseason

 

[Misery74]

In that case they need to blow it up. Guys like Wilson, Carlson, Oshie, Dowd, Jensen, and Kuemper need to be traded to recoup value to prepare for the post-Ovechkin future because none of those guys figure to be key contributors by then. You probably need to trade Ovechkin given that he is unlikely to be ok with a rebuild, and that means he'd reach 895 with another team.

Ovechkin will get his record, and his money. He didn’t want Orlov traded, but he was.

Wilson is a great trade asset at next years deadline.

I just don’t see any trade that will undo paying $9m to Backstrom for 2 more years.

 

[Misery74]

Why is Laviolette still here?

 

[Brian23]

Why is Laviolette still here?

Because his contract is up and there's literally no reason to "fire" him?

I mean, it's one thing to get mad if he's re-signed (I know I will). It's another to be up in arms about a contract not expiring fast enough.

 

[Roric]

Well, our all-time franchise player doesn't want that. So if that's the path, prepare to hear that Ovie wants to be traded and to see him reach 895 in another sweater. They will do whatever they can to keep him happy and in DC. If that means trading a top 10 pick, they'll do it.

What would even be the asking price for a player like Ovi?

 

[Brian23]

What would even be the asking price for a player like Ovi?

His value to other teams is much less then it is to the Capitals. I'd expect you'd be lucky to get a good prospect and a 2nd and 3rd for him.

 

[Misery74]

Because his contract is up and there's literally no reason to "fire" him?

I mean, it's one thing to get mad if he's re-signed (I know I will). It's another to be up in arms about a contract not expiring fast enough.

Why haven’t they announced they are parting ways?

 

[zappa4ever]

Well the season's over and the Autopsy results are in...

Causes of Death:
1) Injuries to star players
2) Injuries to other players
3) Scoring down 20 from last year (partly due to injuries)
4) GA up 20 from last year (mostly due to injuries)
5) Kuzy
6) Backstrom's medical team being too good
7) It's injuries stupids

We hung in there for a long time, even within 3-4 points of Wild Cards until about 15 gms left

A "normal" amount of Man-games lost and would've easily been what most preseason predictions were: 3rd/WC1/WC2 finish