Post-Game Talk: Caps Rangers 12pm

[CapitalsCupReality]

Of course there’s no reliable eye test. Everyone’s eye test sees what they want them to see. It’s why I suggest you come to the advanced stats thread and learn a thing or two. And I must let out a chuckle about you expecting an elevated level of understanding about hockey on an internet message board.

And if we can never disagree with professionals, what’s the point is discussing anything on a message board? I guess we should just say “whatever the coach is doing is correct”, whether that coach is Barry Trotz, Peter Laviolette, Todd Rierden, Adam Oates, etc. After all, they are the professionals. They can never be wrong.

I expect it Twabby because I’ve been a member of this Caps community for near 20 years. I believe the good majority of the regular posters over the years are pretty damn knowledgeable and seasoned hockey fans even though I disagree plenty with opinions at times.

So sure man, you can choose to dismiss the Caps fans here....your misinformed opinion is your own to have.

If you know this game, hell any game at a high level and have decades of experience, the eye test for evaluation is real and valid. Because you don’t, you discount it, dismiss it even.

That is very clear to me today, where previously, honestly dude I felt you just debated very disingenuously often. You refuse to see what most people here posting see and watching the game see at times. Now, I think it’s more a game knowledge and lack of real experience thing. No offense meant, for real.

I suggest maybe putting away the stats for a year and watch the games more closely.

Make the game number 1 and the math 2nd.

Right now, your prioritization of math of over real game knowledge appears to badly skew your view at times.

Unlike you I guess, I believe in the eye test AND the value of statistical analysis when applied properly. I don’t dismiss statistics as hogwash like you do with the eye test or with intangibles.

you can also disagree with the coach all you want....that’s welcomed. Plenty of Monday Morning QB’s. Feel free to respond in the roster thread as I’m sure this is getting locked toot sweet.

 

[twabby]

I expect it Twabby because I’ve been a member of this Caps community for near 20 years. I believe the good majority of the regular posters over the years are pretty damn knowledgeable and seasoned hockey fans even though I disagree plenty with opinions at times.

So sure man, you can choose to dismiss the Caps fans here....your misinformed opinion is your own to have.

If you know this game, hell any game at a high level and have decades of experience, the eye test for evaluation is real and valid. Because you don’t, you discount it.

That is very clear to me today, where previously, honestly dude I felt you just debated very disingenuously often. You refuse to see what most people here posting see and watching the game see at times. Now, I think it’s more a game knowledge and lack of real experience thing. No offense meant, for real.

I suggest maybe putting away the stats for a year and watch the games more closely.

Make the game number 1 and the math 2nd.

Right now, your prioritization of math of over real game knowledge appears to badly skew your view at times.

Unlike you I guess, I believe in the eye test AND the value of statistical analysis when applied properly. I don’t dismiss statistics as hogwash like you do with the eye test or with intangibles.

you can also disagree with the coach all you want....that’s welcomed. Plenty of Monday Morning QB’s.

Honest question: when have you ever tried to engage with analytics and use them to make an argument?

Like @g00n I believe that you talk a big game about using both the eye test and analytics, but I don’t ever recall you actually using analytics to form or bolster an argument.

Seems hypocritical to me.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Honest question: when have you ever tried to engage with analytics and use them to make an argument?

Like @g00n I believe that you talk a big game about using both the eye test and analytics, but I don’t ever recall you actually using analytics to form or bolster an argument.

Seems hypocritical to me.

the problem is twofold, your presentation and your math only stance. Sorry.

I don’t need 35 graphs. Present your shit in a more concise readable format. Summarize! I bet you lose more than half the people reading your long stat posts because of the overbearing verbosity of it all.

Pretty sure I’ve posted some stats here over the years......LOL....

 

[g00n]

Your disdain for analytics leaks through every one of your high-horsed posts, and I’m honestly embarrassed for you. As someone who claims that we should use the eye test and the numbers, it sure seems like you don’t actually care to use any sort of analytical argument ever and are just being a huge hypocrite!

You do this every time the flaws in your logic are called out. Nothing but personal attacks and "nuh uh, you".

You're not "honestly" anything at this point.

 

[twabby]

the problem is twofold, your presentation and your math only stance. Sorry.

I don’t need 35 graphs. Present your shit in a more concise readable format. Summarize! I bet you lose more than half the people reading your long stat posts because of the overbearing verbosity of it all.

Let’s be honest: if I presented things concisely then you still wouldn’t care. On the other hand plenty of people have already expressed that they like more detailed posts. Sounds like this is more of a “you” problem than a “me” problem.

Pretty sure I’ve posted some stats here over the years......LOL....

Nope.

 

[txpd]

Baseball is very much a game of numbers and as a result analytics are very helpful. Other sports to varying degrees they are less helpful. My experience is that analytics can help explain the results you see. I think the issue here is that when the stats tell you that the best producing player on the team stinks and one in the doghouse is really the best player all the while the team is winning, you fight against the idea that the numbers arent telling you everything.

Again I will ask. Why do you think Laviolette who is seeing all the stats you are and is clearly choosing a course of action consistently that you find 180 degrees wrong. Why is he doing that? He has to have reasons. He has hinted at some of the reasons as he has with Sprong. What do you think? I can tell you this much. The reasons are hard and the answers are not in the numbers.

 

[txpd]

Tony 2 bags strikes again

 

[g00n]

Honest question: when have you ever tried to engage with analytics and use them to make an argument?

Like @g00n I believe that you talk a big game about using both the eye test and analytics, but I don’t ever recall you actually using analytics to form or bolster an argument.

Seems hypocritical to me.

There's a difference between being open to stats and being blinded by them. You are 100% blinded by them.

I work with numbers all the time. I believe in stats. I just don't believe in the way you're using these particular stats.

And regarding the "eye test" I've explained many, many times it depends on who's administering it. The interpretation of the human mind can outperform computers and confound statistical models. This has been shown repeatedly in studies of high level athletes, chess masters, firefighters, and all manner of professionals who by virtue of their EXPERIENCE develop an understanding of patterns such that they can anticipate and interpret even subconsciously while others are unaware of what they're looking at, or too slow to react.

Gretzky has credited exactly this for his brilliance. But hey, what the f*** does he know about hockey, right?

 

[g00n]

Let’s be honest: if I presented things concisely then you still wouldn’t care. On the other hand plenty of people have already expressed that they like more detailed posts. Sounds like this is more of a “you” problem than a “me” problem.



Nope.

And this guy wonders why we created a thread for this.

Every. Damn. Game.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Let’s be honest: if I presented things concisely then you still wouldn’t care. On the other hand plenty of people have already expressed that they like more detailed posts. Sounds like this is more of a “you” problem than a “me” problem.

Nope.

believe what you believe if it helps you bow out of the discussion.

I know I’d prefer your statistical opinion in a more concise format. That’s what just stirred up a storm recently....the eye bleeding conversation halting length of your posts.

Why can’t you make your case more concisely most of the time?

Why can’t you budge a little and acknowledge that game knowledge and experience are real and extremely valuable?

 

[twabby]

believe what you believe if it helps you bow out of the discussion.

I know I’d prefer your statistical opinion in a more concise format. That’s what just stirred up a storm recently....the eye bleeding conversation halting length of your posts. Why can’t you make your case more concisely most of the time? Why can’t you budge a little and acknowledge that game knowledge and experience are real and extremely valuable?

As I mentioned, plenty of people have expressed that they enjoy the more detailed posts. I’d hate to let them down.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

I want Kuz and Ovie out late in games where Ovie can score more goals and close out games.

More Ovie goals and more Caps wins.

That’s what I want and I think we all want. As a prediction, I think it’ll happen more and more, IMHO.

Kuz, I think, is on board with helping get Ovie the record so it’ll be a big motivation for him.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

As I mentioned, plenty of people have expressed that they enjoy the more detailed posts. I’d hate to let them down.

you’re right..at least 4 people were on the island with you. Enjoy the stats thread.

 

[twabby]

The odd thing is that I didn’t even even bring up any sort of analytical argument this time around. Here’s what I said:

1. Laviolette did not play Kuznetsov much in third periods early in the year. The Capitals blew a lot of leads.

2. Laviolette did play Kuznetsov in third periods later in the year. The Capitals did not blow a lot of leads.

3. Laviolette did not play Kuznetsov much in the third period yesterday. The Capitals almost blew a huge lead.

Conclusion: maybe just play Kuznetsov more in third periods. “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” as the common saying goes.

 

[twabby]

you’re right..at least 4 people were on the island with you. Enjoy the stats thread.

 

[DWGie26]

I love sports stats. Had Billy Bean speak at one of our events. it was fascinating what he did with the A’s back in the day. And fancy stats have their place in hockey as evidenced by the uptick in the emergence. But there is a reason billy is out of the game and not relevant any more. Because he made it ALL about stats and the game went beyond him.

There is this thing called intangibles and chemistry and leadership that can’t be measured that way. Look at Orpik and Chara. Their numbers don’t calculate their value. Take Wilson... hard to measure his value. But everyone would take him on their team.

In sports, data is an input. not the story. So share some data. We’re all fine with that. Antagonistly Telling us we’re all wrong because what we see doesn’t match you data is where it gets sideways.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

I love sports stats. Had Billy Bean speak at one of our events. it was fascinating what he did with the A’s back in the day. And fancy stats have their place in hockey as evidenced by the uptick in the emergence. But there is a reason billy is out of the game and not relevant any more. Because he made it ALL about stats and the game went beyond him.

There is this thing called intangibles and chemistry and leadership that can’t be measured that way. Look at Orpik and Chara. Their numbers don’t calculate their value. Take Wilson... hard to measure his value. But everyone would take him on their team.

In sports, data is an input. not the story. So share some data. We’re all fine with that. Antagonistly Telling us we’re all wrong because what we see doesn’t match you data is where it gets sideways.

Balance is needed. It can’t be one at the exclusion of the other. You draw from both and make the best informed decision.

There is a human element that analytics just can’t capture. Conversely, your eyes can fool you and you can hold some preconceived biases. (ie It never used to be this cold! The weather is different nowadays.)

 

[crab]

I enjoy reading both sides of the argument with the following notes.

Advanced stats - I find there is a total disregard for the eye test as it’s considered bias. As you can’t support the eye test with data there is no way you can support your position against certain advanced stats proponents. Even when it comes to offensive production some of these posters seem to value expected points more than actual.

Coach’s usage of players - I think Lavi has been pretty good with player ice time but there are Coach’s who for some reason or other love certain players and they are awful from an actual stats, eye test and advanced stats perspective.

 

[hb12xchamps]

This shit is really getting old really fast. The last few pages were very difficult to read.

The Caps are arguably the best team in the league and we’re sitting here bitching about analytics and Kuznetsov again. Too many posts are used to fire people up and troll around here lately.

So to get back on track. I’ve been very impressed with how this team has responded to adversity. They’ve had injury after injury this year (feels like more than the last few seasons combined) and they’ve done nothing but continue to win. They’re winning in arguably the toughest division this year and they’re doing it with a natural winger taking reps as a center AGAIN.

BMac deserves a ton of credit for addressing all the concerns the fan base had after the terrible bubble performance.

 

[DWGie26]

I love what this team is doing. From owner, to GM, to coaching to the execution on the ice. The Caps culture is amongst the top (if not the top) in the NHL now. Players want to come here. they all talk about how they are welcomed to the room. It is special. All of those things contribute to making of a champion. And now the farm is looking good too. I just don’t know about this closing window. I don’t see it. But i do feel the urgency to win now!

 

[Calicaps]

That seems like a good place to call it. Thread closed.