Post-Game Talk: Caps Rangers 12pm

Discussion in 'Washington Capitals' started by Ovechkins Wodka, Mar 28, 2021.

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  1. twabby Registered User

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    That’s fine if that’s the rationale. But if he is truly trying to rest some of the better players when they go up big, then it’s odd to me that Nicklas Backstrom played almost 22 minutes yesterday while Kuznetsov only played 15. It seems more likely that Laviolette just didn’t trust Kuznetsov protecting a lead again, which is disappointing.

    As @Langway mentioned, the 4th line has played well this year but I worry that Laviolette is leaning a bit too heavily on them. They shouldn’t have more 5v5 minutes than Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, and Oshie.
     
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  2. g00n t0m WiLs0n PhAnBoI

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    The 4th line gave up no goals. Oshie/Panik/Vrana gave up the first 2 NYR goals.

    Also why are you only looking at 5v5? Don't you think during a condensed schedule with so many games the coaches are watching TOTAL ice time more closely?
     
  3. twabby Registered User

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    Again, why would Nicklas Backstrom play almost 22 minutes total if the coaches were keeping such a close eye on TOI? My hunch is that he is seen as a good defensive player, unlike Kuznetsov, and for that reason was not stapled to the bench in the 3rd period.

    Also I focus on 5v5 TOI because I do understand that special teams TOI can skew the numbers due to situational need. If the Capitals are on the PP a lot, then Ovechkin will have more TOI. If they are on the PK a lot, then the 4th line will have more TOI.
     
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  4. txpd Registered User

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    Its disappointing how? Disappointing to who?
     
  5. txpd Registered User

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    8 and 19 are not reduced in TOI like the rest of the roster. That is clear. They watch Backstrom even less with Oshie sort of playing center for Eller. Yesterday Laviolette was sending Backstrom out for PK face offs and sending Dowd and Backstrom both out for defense zone face offs late. First time this season he has done that. This is not duty that Kuzy would get
     
  6. CapitalsCupReality It’s Go Time!!

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    trying to figure out why you have to constantly explain the game and various coaching decisions....mind boggling at times that this stuff isn’t just deduced by some. I don’t truly don’t get it.

    My entire time posting here I guess I (incorrectly) assumed a certain (elevated) level of understanding of the game of hockey by most posters here. But it’s all starting to make sense.

    No understanding of intangibles, no reliable eye test, constant disagreement with the Professionals because some stat says differently. The picture is becoming more clear to me.
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2021
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  7. g00n t0m WiLs0n PhAnBoI

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    And.... how those special teams minutes play out could affect future 5v5 deployment. Yes? Maybe in ways you don't know about since you're not on the bench?
     
  8. Calicaps NFA

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    It's astounding. I also wonder if said posters imagine they have access to stats and analysis that the coaching staff doesn't have, because otherwise, why would said posters not assume that coaching decisions are made in the full light of all the factors: i.e stats, eye test, professional expertise, game plan, season plan, deep knowledge of players and their physical condition, etc. :dunno:
     
  9. g00n t0m WiLs0n PhAnBoI

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    Some of it is just human nature. We see part of the picture and associate what we know with what we observe, make assumptions we don't even realize we're making, and draw conclusions. Experience or cultivated skepticism is the only cure. If you don't know what you don't know....

    But overall, IMO the bigger problem is the internet has infected the entire world with the worst case of ultracrepidarianism in human history. The old saying is "a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing", and Google University gives everyone easy access to a little bit of knowledge.

    We're all guilty to some extent. But most don't realize they're doing it.

    Or do they..........................
     
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  10. ALLCAPSALLTHETIME Great Dane! Love that Eller feller.

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    One thing I've learned in life is to not worry about things that you cannot change. It only leads to frustration and misery.

    Whether they dress a player or not, trade for a player or not trade for a player, whether they give more ice time to a player or not give ice time to a player, that's out of my control.

    The only thing I can control is to treat others with respect and appreciate divergent viewpoints, even if you don't agree with them.
     
  11. txpd Registered User

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    Tom Nichols has an outstanding book.

    [​IMG]
     
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  12. twabby Registered User

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    It’s disappointing to me, because I like to see the Washington Capitals win games and I would like them to win another Stanley Cup. Their failure to close out games where they are up by multiple goals could hurt them in the postseason, especially if they go deep and face juggernauts like the Lightning or the Avalanche.

    Peter Laviolette has done an excellent job so far. Let me repeat that so no one has an excuse to make strawmen arguments: I think he has done an excellent job. My main gripe is the way the team is closing out games. In the end this isn’t a “major” problem per se, as a lot of teams would love for this to be their biggest problem. But it is a problem.
     
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  13. twabby Registered User

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    Of course there’s no reliable eye test. Everyone’s eye test sees what they want them to see. It’s why I suggest you come to the advanced stats thread and learn a thing or two. And I must let out a chuckle about you expecting an elevated level of understanding about hockey on an internet message board.

    And if we can never disagree with professionals, what’s the point is discussing anything on a message board? I guess we should just say “whatever the coach is doing is correct”, whether that coach is Barry Trotz, Peter Laviolette, Todd Rierden, Adam Oates, etc. After all, they are the professionals. They can never be wrong.
     
  14. twabby Registered User

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    No.
     
  15. txpd Registered User

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    You think the Caps against Juggernauts are going to see 4-0 leads? I am not holding my breath. 1 goal leads are more likely. Do they have a problem winning games with 1 or 2 goal leads? My recollection is that they have lost 1 game this season in regulation after having a 3rd period lead.

    Why do you suppose Laviolette doesnt like Kuzy defensively? With Eller out it would be really helpful if he could use him in those spots. What do you think? He's not an idiot and he has access to more and more indepth stuff and video than you. Care to guess?
     
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  16. txpd Registered User

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    Are you saying special teams usage doesnt effect even strenth ice time? It often does with Orlov.
     
  17. twabby Registered User

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    So can we ever disagree with a coaching decision? Please let me know when it is acceptable, otherwise according to you every decision and gameplan is fully optimal and no criticism can ever be made.

    It’s bananas to believe that NHL coaching and franchises are well-oiled machines beyond reproach, yet at the same time the NHL league office and the DOPS is filled with incompetent boobs and should never be trusted.
     
  18. twabby Registered User

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    Please I beg of you, take your own advice in this post and think long and hard about how it applies to you. It’ll do you a world of good.
     
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  19. g00n t0m WiLs0n PhAnBoI

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    This is false dilemma crap. "Either everything is up for 100% debate or nothing is". Uh huh.

    The very fact that you think things work that way shows what you DON'T know. Your argument is 10,000 years older than sand. Everyone's heard it by now, even if it seems new to you.

    Nobody has EVER said we can "never" criticize coaching decisions. But some common sense and experience and intelligence is required to determine what's a known unknown, or unknown unknown, and what's really within the realm of possibility.

    For someone who likes to fiddle with numbers and probabilities you sure seem to be having a hard time grasping the basic concept here. How likely is it that YOU sitting at home looking at publicly available data are somehow more clued than the best in the world who do this for a living every day and have tens of thousands more hours of experience interpreting ALL the data, than you? Add in their access to the game/players/unknowns that you don't have....

    I'm sorry I can't quantify the probability there, but it's going to be very, very, very small.

    So the upshot here is there's a lot you can criticize about coaching decisions. Line combinations, choices to deploy those combos, coaching methods...just about any DECISION is up for debate to SOME degree. But if you think a person like yourself who admits to being a horrible judge of hockey based on observation is going to consistently second guess the premiere experts on the topic simply based on that data you pore over as your hobby....fat chance.
     
  20. g00n t0m WiLs0n PhAnBoI

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    Your ego is out of control. Step away from the charts.
     
  21. Bieronymus Trotz Registered User

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    The irony here is something else.
     
  22. g00n t0m WiLs0n PhAnBoI

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    Ok so a guy on the PK gets nicked blocking a shot and that affects the line combos for a period. Or the PK fails and the score change alters both coaches strategy, and then line deployments. Or there's an opportunity at the end of a PK to rush the other way and a partial line combo goes over the boards, which means other lines are shuffled temporarily. Or there's been SO much PK that the various lines/pairs affected need to sit longer than usual. ETC.

    Flip it the other way for various PP situations, same type of thing.

    But hey, you said "no" which means you know better than the coaches and the players because fancy stats.

    It's funny how when the coin-flip (or worse) prediction rate of those stats is brought up people like you and some others start backpedaling to "it's better than the OTHER stats at prediction for X situations so stop applying it to Y", but then you come back in threads like this claiming you can tell everything just from those numbers.

    I think I know which of those scenarios you really believe.
     
  23. txpd Registered User

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    During the Trotz and Reirden days Orlov didnt pk and only played the last seconds of a pp. He was always the first even strenth shift after both a pk or a pp. Special teams certainly effected his even strenth TOI
     
  24. g00n t0m WiLs0n PhAnBoI

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    Ok coming back to this one since you're calling me out, please explain. What do you think I'm overextending my knowledge on here. Be specific. Otherwise you're just pulling out the old "NO U" defense.
     
  25. twabby Registered User

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    Your disdain for analytics leaks through every one of your high-horsed posts, and I’m honestly embarrassed for you. As someone who claims that we should use the eye test and the numbers, it sure seems like you don’t actually care to use any sort of analytical argument ever and are just being a huge hypocrite!
     
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