Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 4

[tenken00]

That the shit I’m talking about, on their trade grades they gave Detroit an A+ and the Caps a C- so they’ve got to galactic brain their way into an explanation. Mind you besides averaging a goal a game, Mantha led the league in relative Corsi the last 2 seasons and would again be with his eye popping +13.1 with the Caps.

Dom Luscslkdfjsfjwoeffsdxvrflj has never liked the Caps since they don't really fit his analytics. And he acknowledges that too.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Did you read the article and disagree with it or do you not care about the article and simply don't like the conclusion?

If it was written by Dom it's not worth reading. He has his model and he only views hockey through his model so he likes the teams -- the moves made by teams -- his model likes and vice versa for the teams and moves his model doesn't like.

It kinda sucks actually. I'm a paid subscriber to The Athletic but I have to skip all of his shit because it's literally the same repackaged opinion masquerading as data all the time. Instead of trying to figure out or explain why his model likes or doesn't like certain things and why his model is flat out wrong in many cases he just says, "My model doesn't like this, so we'll see what happens."

 

[895]

If it was written by Dom it's not worth reading. He has his model and he only views hockey through his model so he likes the teams -- the moves made by teams -- his model likes and vice versa for the teams and moves his model doesn't like.

It kinda sucks actually. I'm a paid subscriber to The Athletic but I have to skip all of his shit because it's literally the same repackaged opinion masquerading as data all the time. Instead of trying to figure out or explain why his model likes or doesn't like certain things and why his model is flat out wrong in many cases he just says, "My model doesn't like this, so we'll see what happens."

Don't know anything about this guy but if that's true then it's it's wrong way to approach analytics. The whole point is to refine your model if certain things don't seem to make sense, not just ignore it.

 

[twabby]

I take a different view on Dom’s modeling and actually think he’s one of the few on the Athletic worth reading.

At some point the data available just isn’t enough to adequately model every player, every team, etc. Without puck tracking, passing data, or other pieces of data not currently available to the public it might not be possible to make a model that is very predictive for both the Capitals and the rest of the league. With that data I think predictive modeling will be much better.

One of the concerns with trying to alter everything in a model to fit the Capitals is that you risk overfitting. It might be a good descriptive model but it’s likely no good in terms of being predictive if you try to get too granular. It’s not just Dom’s model that underrates the Capitals year after year, and as you said it’s notable that he at least admits his model is too low on Washington. I doubt that he hasn’t tried to improve his model to account for the Capitals. And i don’t think it’s a failure of modeling. I just think that the data available right now isn’t enough to make a perfect model, or close to it. But it is very useful.

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

 

[TRASHCAT]

Did


Did you read the article and disagree with it or do you not care about the article and simply don't like the conclusion?

I'm sure one of the hundred comments shitting on it had someone who read it. Rising guy who hasn't played a shift Falling guy with 4 goals in 4 games.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I take a different view on Dom’s modeling and actually think he’s one of the few on the Athletic worth reading.

At some point the data available just isn’t enough to adequately model every player, every team, etc. Without puck tracking, passing data, or other pieces of data not currently available to the public it might not be possible to make a model that is very predictive for both the Capitals and the rest of the league. With that data I think predictive modeling will be much better.

One of the concerns with trying to alter everything in a model to fit the Capitals is that you risk overfitting. It might be a good descriptive model but it’s likely no good in terms of being predictive if you try to get too granular. It’s not just Dom’s model that underrates the Capitals year after year, and as you said it’s notable that he at least admits his model is too low on Washington. I doubt that he hasn’t tried to improve his model to account for the Capitals. And i don’t think it’s a failure of modeling. I just think that the data available right now isn’t enough to make a perfect model, or close to it. But it is very useful.

Interesting how we come to different conclusions with the same inputs. Your reasons for liking him are pretty much the same reasons I skip over him -- his models are limited yet he writes about them like they're definitive. I think it's unfair to expect perfection of course but he's essentially making shit up the same as a lot of other people are so it's not all that interesting to me. I don't find his stuff to be any more valuable or insightful that stuff you can get for free on Twitter.

And imo you need to read more stuff on The Athletic if you think he's only one of few worth reading. They do really good work, well worth the price. Their stories are fantastic and one of the only places to read certain types of pieces now that SI is a shell of what it used to be and ESPN is, well, still ESPN. I guess it's all about what you're looking for, though. I love the behind-the-scenes and long-form stories they write.

 

[twabby]

Interesting how we come to different conclusions with the same inputs. Your reasons for liking him are pretty much the same reasons I skip over him -- his models are limited yet he writes about them like they're definitiveI think it's unfair to expect perfection of course but he's essentially making shit up the same as a lot of other people are so it's not all that interesting to me. I don't find his stuff to be any more valuable or insightful that stuff you can get for free on Twitter.

And imo you need to read more stuff on The Athletic if you think he's only one of few worth reading. They do really good work, well worth the price. Their stories are fantastic and one of the only places to read certain types of pieces now that SI is a shell of what it used to be and ESPN is, well, still ESPN. I guess it's all about what you're looking for, though. I love the behind-the-scenes and long-form stories they write.

I don't think Dom's necessarily better than a lot of people on Twitter, but he's good IMO. I was gifted an Athletic subscription so I wouldn't say he's worth the price since I don't plan on renewing, but he's better than most of the national NHL writers at the Athletic, and Tarik is fine but nothing special in terms of Capitals coverage. I'm really not as interested in the behind the scenes stuff as I am purely in on-ice stuff, so I guess that might be a reason why I don't like it as much as others might.

 

[traparatus]

If it was written by Dom it's not worth reading.

Don't know anything about this guy but if that's true then it's it's wrong way to approach analytics.

I'm sure one of the hundred comments shitting on it had someone who read it. Rising guy who hasn't played a shift Falling guy with 4 goals in 4 games.

This is internet in a nutshell. TRASHCAT came upon an article that he didn't read because the title implied that a player from his team will be criticized. Based on this, he formed an opinion that the whole Athletic service is junk. People in the comments section agreed and what more proof do you need.

AlexBrovechkin8, who also didn't read the article, quickly formed an opinion that if the article was written by Dom, which it was not, the article is junk and is not worth reading.

Dumb and nobody, who didn't read the article not written by Dom Luszczyszyn, has no idea who this guy Dom is, quickly concluded that Dom is wrong and his model is wrong.

In conclusion, nobody read the article not written by Dom that states that one of Anthony Mantha's most valued traits is his ability to perform on the power play. Namely, he is one of the highest one-timer PP volume shooters in the league, typically manning the right point in a 1-3-1 PP formation. Essentially, he is the Ovechkin, if Ovechkin was a left shot. The article reaches a rather non-controversial conclusion that seen as how Caps' have the top power play in the league, it's highly unlikely that they will randomly decide to flip it on it's head. Anyway, having an Ovechkin on the right side is great in principle but doesn't work worth s**t in reality because you don't have a Backstrom on the left, Carlson cannot dish out perfect one-timer passes on his backhand and the actual Ovechkin plays the whole 2 minutes of every powerplay.

Stands to reason, that Caps might not be able to fully utilize all of Mantha's skillset.

 

[tenken00]

Dom is fine as long as you take him for who he is. But the same could be said about everyone. Like I said, he acknowledges that his models really don't favor the Caps and they never have, and his writings reflect that attitude. But he also admits sometimes that a team like the Caps bucks the analytics anyways, like they did in the 2018 Cup run.

As for the Athletic in general, it's pretty good when it comes to hearing insider league news. Love when Burnside and LeBrun break in the happenings of the NHL like they did for all the league meetings and the plans for how the league would set up this pandemic season, on the tv deals, etc.

 

[HecticGlow]

I’ll echo the comments on Dom – his model perpetually underestimates the Caps (IIRC, it hasn’t been convinced the Caps would even make the playoffs the last few offseasons?), but increasingly he’s owning it. I think analytics will only ever going to get you so far in hockey, however reliable the data. There are simply too many variables, both within a game and across a season, to predict results with any meaningful value. Many commentators seem to treat every player as though they have equivalent hypothetical skill and intangibles – many of Ovi’s shots are statistically improbable, viewed across the league, but statistically likely for him. Not because he’s an elite player, but because it’s Alex Ovechkin. Often these analytics seem to reflect players’ on-ice success or failure better than they can explain it. Trotz having a team turtle for a period will look crappy on the advanced stats, but is what wins them games.

My biggest bug-bear, though, is the idea you can take one guy on a team with a very different system, culture and team and use his analytics to forecast how he’ll perform with his new team. It’s not a problem of analytics, it’s a problem of the person using it – it suggests the team’s system, linemate chemistry, practice drills etc. will statistically be irrelevant. So that article (not by Dom, I don’t think?) had Foligno ‘rising’ in Toronto despite having not spent a minute outside of quarantine since the trade, but Mantha (who has been performing well in the small sample) ‘falling’ based on the fact they think Vrana should have been better here than he was. Vrana wasn’t scoring 5 points in the 4 post-TDL games if he’d stayed. It’s just dumb.

If Backstrom was traded, he’d be described as ‘having a pretty good shot but scarcely uses it’. But look at his shooting % and it varies a lot – 9.15%; 12.64%; 14.86%; 8.91%; 14.74%; 9.76%; 9.18%; 11.76%; 15.5%; 14.2%; 12.73%; 13.02%; 9.1%; 17.5%. How can you forecast what he’ll do on the ice if how effectively he uses his shot changes so frequently, likely as a result of coaching and linemate changes?

And then you have a guy like Dom trying to forecast teams’ seasons before the season has begun, even though so much about teams has changed without a shred of data to analyse. The Caps, for example, changed its system and coaching staff between seasons. How does taking the performance of players who all played under a different coach (and often different teams) the previous year tell you anything about this year? Analysis like that tends to be very good at identifying what we already know – teams like Tampa and Toronto have great possession game, strong talent and will win many games. But you get silly season predictions like this:

Team	Chance of making playoffs	RS points prediction
Washington Capitals	58%	63.7
Philadelphia Flyers	67.1%	74
Florida Panthers	39%	61.1
Minnesota Wild	34%	62.8
St Louis Blues	89%	70.8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

At a certain point you have to accept your model doesn’t need tweaking, it’s simply too incomplete to be meaningful? Right?

I like what I see of Mantha so far. He’s a big upgrade in how we can actually use the player and how he fits, even if the sum of all his parts may be notionally similar to Vrana’s.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

This is internet in a nutshell. TRASHCAT came upon an article that he didn't read because the title implied that a player from his team will be criticized. Based on this, he formed an opinion that the whole Athletic service is junk. People in the comments section agreed and what more proof do you need.

AlexBrovechkin8, who also didn't read the article, quickly formed an opinion that if the article was written by Dom, which it was not, the article is junk and is not worth reading.

Dumb and nobody, who didn't read the article not written by Dom Luszczyszyn, has no idea who this guy Dom is, quickly concluded that Dom is wrong and his model is wrong.

In conclusion, nobody read the article not written by Dom that states that one of Anthony Mantha's most valued traits is his ability to perform on the power play. Namely, he is one of the highest one-timer PP volume shooters in the league, typically manning the right point in a 1-3-1 PP formation. Essentially, he is the Ovechkin, if Ovechkin was a left shot. The article reaches a rather non-controversial conclusion that seen as how Caps' have the top power play in the league, it's highly unlikely that they will randomly decide to flip it on it's head. Anyway, having an Ovechkin on the right side is great in principle but doesn't work worth s**t in reality because you don't have a Backstrom on the left, Carlson cannot dish out perfect one-timer passes on his backhand and the actual Ovechkin plays the whole 2 minutes of every powerplay.

Stands to reason, that Caps might not be able to fully utilize all of Mantha's skillset.

I have no problem with people criticizing my favorite teams or favorite players if it's done well and if it's interesting but I don't need to read every Larry Brooks articles from the NY Post to know each one is ass. I don't need to watch a Tucker Carlson segment to give it a fair shake and determine if it's going to be ass or not. People develop a consistency with a certain pattern and a certain quality when it comes to their work product and I have read enough of Dom's stuff to know the general points he's going to make, how he's going to make them, and the disclaimer he'll put behind them, so I was -- and still am -- confident in saying that it's not worth my time to read it.

I suppose you also know that Dom always looks for ways to justify his work so I could tell you before I even clicked on it that it would be a fluff piece on Vrana or the opposite for Washington since he rarely strays from his initial opinion based on his model's initial output. I actually can't even find it on The Athletic -- did he talk about anything other than PP fit?

 

[twabby]

This is internet in a nutshell. TRASHCAT came upon an article that he didn't read because the title implied that a player from his team will be criticized. Based on this, he formed an opinion that the whole Athletic service is junk. People in the comments section agreed and what more proof do you need.

AlexBrovechkin8, who also didn't read the article, quickly formed an opinion that if the article was written by Dom, which it was not, the article is junk and is not worth reading.

Dumb and nobody, who didn't read the article not written by Dom Luszczyszyn, has no idea who this guy Dom is, quickly concluded that Dom is wrong and his model is wrong.

In conclusion, nobody read the article not written by Dom that states that one of Anthony Mantha's most valued traits is his ability to perform on the power play. Namely, he is one of the highest one-timer PP volume shooters in the league, typically manning the right point in a 1-3-1 PP formation. Essentially, he is the Ovechkin, if Ovechkin was a left shot. The article reaches a rather non-controversial conclusion that seen as how Caps' have the top power play in the league, it's highly unlikely that they will randomly decide to flip it on it's head. Anyway, having an Ovechkin on the right side is great in principle but doesn't work worth s**t in reality because you don't have a Backstrom on the left, Carlson cannot dish out perfect one-timer passes on his backhand and the actual Ovechkin plays the whole 2 minutes of every powerplay.

Stands to reason, that Caps might not be able to fully utilize all of Mantha's skillset.

Yeah I just read this article and it seems...reasonable?

Maybe it's a bit hot-takey to say the Mantha trade isn't going to move the needle much for Washington but it's also reasonable to say that Mantha and Vrana are similar-quality players (though different stylistically) and that Vrana excelling in Detroit as a top-line winger is a decently likely outcome. I think there was some nuance missed in the article with regards to Vrana's upcoming contract negotiations this summer and the fact that the Capitals needed cost certainty going into re-signing Ovechkin, but I also think a lot of people here who are claiming the Capitals did well on the trade also need to realize that it's been 4 games so far and we won't know if the Capitals did well on the trade until at least next year (or if they win the Cup this year, fingers crossed).

 

[traparatus]

I have no problem with people criticizing my favorite teams or favorite players if it's done well and if it's interesting but I don't need to read every Larry Brooks articles from the NY Post to know each one is ass. I don't need to watch a Tucker Carlson segment to give it a fair shake and determine if it's going to be ass or not. People develop a consistency with a certain pattern and a certain quality when it comes to their work product and I have read enough of Dom's stuff to know the general points he's going to make, how he's going to make them, and the disclaimer he'll put behind them, so I was -- and still am -- confident in saying that it's not worth my time to read it.

I suppose you also know that Dom always looks for ways to justify his work so I could tell you before I even clicked on it that it would be a fluff piece on Vrana or the opposite for Washington since he rarely strays from his initial opinion based on his model's initial output. I actually can't even find it on The Athletic -- did he talk about anything other than PP fit?

He didn't talk about anything because he didn't write the article.

 

[twabby]

Tracking data stock watch: Who is rising and falling after deadline additions?

Here's the article since I didn't see it posted here either.

 

[Calicaps]

Dom is fine as long as you take him for who he is. But the same could be said about everyone. Like I said, he acknowledges that his models really don't favor the Caps and they never have, and his writings reflect that attitude. But he also admits sometimes that a team like the Caps bucks the analytics anyways, like they did in the 2018 Cup run.

As for the Athletic in general, it's pretty good when it comes to hearing insider league news. Love when Burnside and LeBrun break in the happenings of the NHL like they did for all the league meetings and the plans for how the league would set up this pandemic season, on the tv deals, etc.

Once again, my issue with analytics in hockey. If you can buck them, how predictive can they be? Hockey just doesn't work like that. There's too many nonquantifiable variables. Not saying their worthless, just that they shouldn't be the primary way decisions are made.

And as for the Athletic, meh. Wish I'd cancelled my subscription sooner and not had to pay for the second year. Too much fluff. I can get the breaking news 5 minutes later from Friedman or Mackenzie for free.

 

[txpd]

I think it's leaning more towards Samsonov now. He seems to be getting better while Vanacek has been on the slide lately.

Getting better? SV% his last 6 starts.
.800
.750
.897
.875
.967
.880.

Vanecek last 6 starts

.957
.974
.909
.971
.810
.815

 

[tenken00]

Once again, my issue with analytics in hockey. If you can buck them, how predictive can they be? Hockey just doesn't work like that. There's too many nonquantifiable variables.

And as for the Athletic, meh. Wish I'd cancelled my subscription sooner and not had to pay for the second year. Too much fluff. I can get the breaking news 5 minutes later from Friedman or Mackenzie for free.

Well, I think analytics has to be taken more as a guideline rather than cold hard rules. Humans love to put things in neat little tidy packages so that it's easier to classify and put together relationships in cause and effect. But humans (and the world in general) also have a wild randomness factor to them that will never allow anything to be concrete just due to the sheer amount of possibilities that could happen.

Good thing I am not human.

 

[txpd]

I'm sure one of the hundred comments shitting on it had someone who read it. Rising guy who hasn't played a shift Falling guy with 4 goals in 4 games.

We've had this discussion already. Actual goals and points are overrated.

 

[twabby]

We've had this discussion already. Actual goals and points are overrated.

agreed

 

[tenken00]

Between Samsonov and Vanecek, who's looked better against these individual teams? My memory is getting all jumbled up again.

Against NYR
Against NYI
Against BOS

We haven't played PIT since the 1880's so I'm not even going to ask.

 

[Calicaps]

Well, I think analytics has to be taken more as a guideline rather than cold hard rules. Humans love to put things in neat little tidy packages so that it's easier to classify and put together relations in cause and effect. But humans (and the world in general) also have a wild randomness factor to them that will never allow anything to be concrete just due to the sheer amount of possibilities that could happen.

Good thing I am not human.

All fair points. Especially that last one. Lucky you.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Ok, I just read it and it's honestly it's a perfect encapsulation of why I dislike a lot of analytics writers. Let's recap the piece:

• They first write that Mantha is an elite scorer who generates elite even-strength rush scoring chances.
• Next section: Mantha's ability to generate high-danger scoring chances off the rush will help the Capitals at even strength, perhaps significantly, due to the roster construction and age of the Caps.
• Next section: all that said, he's not a seismic upgrade over Vrana... but let's dig in here a bit; they're saying he's not a seismic upgrade only in rush chances -- not in all situations -- and the transition game was really one of the only things that Vrana was good at anyway so that's a whole lot of nothing. Oh, and then they acknowledge but gloss over the fact that Vrana's on-ice performance had plateaued this season "to the point where the data suggests that something else was going on" but the only something they say was going on was Vrana wanted more ice-time. And then they mention The Snake's individual xG contributions cratered significantly this year. Seems to be a pretty big stretch here emphasizing certain things and de-emphasizing others to make sure the hypothesis is proven correct.
• Next section: Mantha is elite on the PP and won't get to be elite on the PP in Washington because of Ovi. Setting aside the fact that Mantha sniped a PPG on Sunday, proclaiming Washington won't be able to use him to improve their PP and thus extract the adequate value from the trade after four games is pretty absurd, yeah?

So to recap the article, Mantha is an elite scorer who compliments very well what Washington isn't good at at even strength and Vrana got worse this season and Mantha has had 5 points in 4 games but because Mantha may not be able to shoot as much on the PP in Washington his stock is falling.

 

[txpd]

agreed

 

[hb12xchamps]

Sounds like the writer got what he wanted. Throw some shit against the wall, get people riled up and watch as the page views come crashing in