Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 4

[Silky mitts]

Maybe it's a bit hot-takey to say the Mantha trade isn't going to move the needle much for Washington but it's also reasonable to say that Mantha and Vrana are similar-quality players (though different stylistically)

I reject this premise on the basis of our successful GM trading a 1st to make up the difference and Mantha being a 0.88 ppg player last season. And it’s all based on picking and choosing which stats get highlighted in the article. Look at Vrana’s per minute production he must be driving Backstrom and Oshie, the Caps don’t play him enough #hottake

 

[895]

This is internet in a nutshell. TRASHCAT came upon an article that he didn't read because the title implied that a player from his team will be criticized. Based on this, he formed an opinion that the whole Athletic service is junk. People in the comments section agreed and what more proof do you need.

AlexBrovechkin8, who also didn't read the article, quickly formed an opinion that if the article was written by Dom, which it was not, the article is junk and is not worth reading.

Dumb and nobody, who didn't read the article not written by Dom Luszczyszyn, has no idea who this guy Dom is, quickly concluded that Dom is wrong and his model is wrong.

In conclusion, nobody read the article not written by Dom that states that one of Anthony Mantha's most valued traits is his ability to perform on the power play. Namely, he is one of the highest one-timer PP volume shooters in the league, typically manning the right point in a 1-3-1 PP formation. Essentially, he is the Ovechkin, if Ovechkin was a left shot. The article reaches a rather non-controversial conclusion that seen as how Caps' have the top power play in the league, it's highly unlikely that they will randomly decide to flip it on it's head. Anyway, having an Ovechkin on the right side is great in principle but doesn't work worth s**t in reality because you don't have a Backstrom on the left, Carlson cannot dish out perfect one-timer passes on his backhand and the actual Ovechkin plays the whole 2 minutes of every powerplay.

Stands to reason, that Caps might not be able to fully utilize all of Mantha's skillset.

Well I did qualify it with the word if.

I have formed no opinions on Dom. Still haven't. Was merely opining on the fine tuning of analytics models.

 

[crab]

I don’t think you can get much worse than Vrana in the playoffs so it should be a net positive there.

 

[g00n]

Between Samsonov and Vanecek, who's looked better against these individual teams? My memory is getting all jumbled up again.

Against NYR
Against NYI
Against BOS

We haven't played PIT since the 1880's so I'm not even going to ask.

VV:

Sammy:

If going by save% then VV for all 3 teams. But if you're playing Philly you might want to start Sammy (granted VV has one crap game vs PHI). Also worth noting Sammy only has one start vs BOS.

 

[traparatus]

Ok, I just read it and it's honestly it's a perfect encapsulation of why I dislike a lot of analytics writers. Let's recap the piece:

• They first write that Mantha is an elite scorer who generates elite even-strength rush scoring chances.
• Next section: Mantha's ability to generate high-danger scoring chances off the rush will help the Capitals at even strength, perhaps significantly, due to the roster construction and age of the Caps.
• Next section: all that said, he's not a seismic upgrade over Vrana... but let's dig in here a bit; they're saying he's not a seismic upgrade only in rush chances -- not in all situations -- and the transition game was really one of the only things that Vrana was good at anyway so that's a whole lot of nothing. Oh, and then they acknowledge but gloss over the fact that Vrana's on-ice performance had plateaued this season "to the point where the data suggests that something else was going on" but the only something they say was going on was Vrana wanted more ice-time. And then they mention The Snake's individual xG contributions cratered significantly this year. Seems to be a pretty big stretch here emphasizing certain things and de-emphasizing others to make sure the hypothesis is proven correct.
• Next section: Mantha is elite on the PP and won't get to be elite on the PP in Washington because of Ovi. Setting aside the fact that Mantha sniped a PPG on Sunday, proclaiming Washington won't be able to use him to improve their PP and thus extract the adequate value from the trade after four games is pretty absurd, yeah?

So to recap the article, Mantha is an elite scorer who compliments very well what Washington isn't good at at even strength and Vrana got worse this season and Mantha has had 5 points in 4 games but because Mantha may not be able to shoot as much on the PP in Washington his stock is falling.

That's all fair. I didn't come away convinced after reading the article either. Still, it presented an interesting hypothesis and some information on Mantha that I didn't know prior to reading. Also, the notion that Mantha will not get to enjoy the level and quality of deployment that has contributed to his success in the past is not controversial. It's a statement of fact. It doesn't mean that he will not adapt or take advantage of playing with better centers but it's something that warrants keeping an eye on.

I'm a fan of people making predictions based on their analysis, even when these predictions go against basic scoring stats. Short term point stats are random as all hell, anyway. Mantha has shot at some ~35% success rate with the Caps. I'm guessing that's not going to continue.

 

[txpd]

VV:
View attachment 424922

Sammy:
View attachment 424923


If going by save% then VV for all 3 teams. But if you're playing Philly you might want to start Sammy (granted VV has one crap game vs PHI). Also worth noting Sammy only has one start vs BOS.

Right now the stats dont help Sammy. Its still pedigree and to the extent pedigree aids perception.

 

[Ridley Simon]

This is internet in a nutshell. TRASHCAT came upon an article that he didn't read because the title implied that a player from his team will be criticized. Based on this, he formed an opinion that the whole Athletic service is junk. People in the comments section agreed and what more proof do you need.

AlexBrovechkin8, who also didn't read the article, quickly formed an opinion that if the article was written by Dom, which it was not, the article is junk and is not worth reading.

Dumb and nobody, who didn't read the article not written by Dom Luszczyszyn, has no idea who this guy Dom is, quickly concluded that Dom is wrong and his model is wrong.

In conclusion, nobody read the article not written by Dom that states that one of Anthony Mantha's most valued traits is his ability to perform on the power play. Namely, he is one of the highest one-timer PP volume shooters in the league, typically manning the right point in a 1-3-1 PP formation. Essentially, he is the Ovechkin, if Ovechkin was a left shot. The article reaches a rather non-controversial conclusion that seen as how Caps' have the top power play in the league, it's highly unlikely that they will randomly decide to flip it on it's head. Anyway, having an Ovechkin on the right side is great in principle but doesn't work worth s**t in reality because you don't have a Backstrom on the left, Carlson cannot dish out perfect one-timer passes on his backhand and the actual Ovechkin plays the whole 2 minutes of every powerplay.

Stands to reason, that Caps might not be able to fully utilize all of Mantha's skillset.

Right.

sorry.....and Mantha already has 1G and 1A on the PP in 4 games, yes?

Even for a small sample size, that’s....pretty good?

so what is the point again?

 

[Silky mitts]

• Next section: Mantha is elite on the PP and won't get to be elite on the PP in Washington because of Ovi. Setting aside the fact that Mantha sniped a PPG on Sunday, proclaiming Washington won't be able to use him to improve their PP and thus extract the adequate value from the trade after four games is pretty absurd, yeah?

First of all thank you for your service of reading it.
But aimed at the writer Detroit’s xGF on the PP drop 4% with Mantha on the ice and they only average 2.8 GF/60 on the PP with him this season (the last 2 seasons his PP on ice GF/60 were in a cluster with his unit).

But we’re talking about the difference between Mantha and Vrana on PP2 when transition game gets you nothing and Mantha’s ability to enter the zone provides added value before you even get to the one timer.

Lots of details in Pell’s piece on Mantha today, I didn’t know Knuble was one of his AHL coaches
https://www.washingtonpost.com/spor...ial&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=wp_sports

 

[Langway]

Stands to reason, that Caps might not be able to fully utilize all of Mantha's skillset.

But it does not follow that being on PP2 means Mantha isn't nonetheless a fairly significant upgrade. It does not follow that Washington didn't improve just because of some theoretical parity between Mantha and Vrana (a motivated Vrana did not exist). It does not follow that just because their PP is already strong that a more robust PP2 isn't an improvement. Under these general lines of analysis I think anyone would struggle to be identified as an improvement given the bar set. Mantha need not be a 'seismic' upgrade over a theoretically motivated Vrana to nonetheless be an improvement (potentially a very significant one). In consistency, defense and possession Mantha has already added more than Vrana ever has (and that's not even getting into his playoff performance and pending raise). Banking on that just being a small sample size is pretty rich.

Defense and goaltending could be far more problematic when it matters and in light of that it could be fair to argue those should have been bigger deadline targets. But that's not the point being made. This is already an obvious upgrade and no amount of goal post movement changes it. Unfortunately, Sportlogiq is unable to supply these writers consideration of factors like a winning culture or better teammates. Even aside from those obvious positives that will further help Mantha going forward, the main problem is the shifted goal post of needing to be a seismic upgrade over a theoretically motivated player. Tough room. Similarly, Janmark for a second rounder does not really need to move the needle to be an improvement. Of course, it's just an article and such oversimplifications drive views I guess. But it's not great writing per se. It's just handy Sportlogiq references dressed up as insight.

 

[traparatus]

But it does not follow that being on PP2 means Mantha isn't nonetheless a fairly significant upgrade. It does not follow that Washington didn't improve just because of some theoretical parity between Mantha and Vrana (a motivated Vrana did not exist). It does not follow that just because their PP is already strong that a more robust PP2 isn't an improvement. Under these general lines of analysis I think anyone would struggle to be identified as an improvement given the bar set. Mantha need not be a 'seismic' upgrade over a theoretically motivated Vrana to nonetheless be an improvement (potentially a very significant one). In consistency, defense and possession Mantha has already added more than Vrana ever has (and that's not even getting into his playoff performance and pending raise). Banking on that just being a small sample size is pretty rich.

Defense and goaltending could be far more problematic when it matters and in light of that it could be fair to argue those should have been bigger deadline targets. But that's not the point being made. This is already an obvious upgrade and no amount of goal post movement changes it. Unfortunately, Sportlogiq is unable to supply these writers consideration of factors like a winning culture or better teammates. Even aside from those obvious positives that will further help Mantha going forward, the main problem is the shifted goal post of needing to be a seismic upgrade over a theoretically motivated player. Tough room. Similarly, Janmark for a second rounder does not really need to move the needle to be an improvement. Of course, it's just an article and such oversimplifications drive views I guess. But it's not great writing per se. It's just handy Sportlogiq references dressed up as insight.

I don't disagree with any of this and that's the way my opinion is currently leaning, too. I'm somewhat reluctant to spend a lot of time discussing potential merits of Caps 2nd PP unit. It receives very limited use and the issue is not presence or absence of Mantha. The issue is that Kuznetsov, Backstrom ad Eller are left handed shots and play on the right side. It makes no difference how good the shooter on the right is because Caps don't have anybody to consistently set that player up.

I obviously cannot just Mantha's consistency based on 4 games that he has played. He has looked pretty good. Not 4 goals in 4 games good but good nonetheless.

 

[txpd]

. It makes no difference how good the shooter on the right is because Caps don't have anybody to consistently set that player up..

Completely disagree. Carlson is as good with the wheelhouse pass to the right wing as he is to the left wing. The issue is that the right wing guys are not big one time shooters. The trouble with getting Ovechkin his shot is that there is no threat to score on the right. There is some eye test evidence that Oshie has scored enough in the bumper spot that opposing pk's are coming off Ov to stop Oshie.

Schultz is fine at setting up the one timer. Its an easier pass going back to the right wing anyway

 

[Langway]

It makes no difference how good the shooter on the right is because Caps don't have anybody to consistently set that player up.

I'm not sure that really matters unless Mantha is a one-dimensional one-timer ace utterly incapable of producing other shots and otherwise adjusting. It's an interesting stat but one used to make a dumb conclusion. He has a wicked wrister, has shown 5-on-5 that he can go to the net for the tap-in play and is an underrated playmaker. He'll adjust.

If that's such an essential strategic component then Orlov would be the answer but it really isn't IMO.

 

[twabby]

I reject this premise on the basis of our successful GM trading a 1st to make up the difference and Mantha being a 0.88 ppg player last season. And it’s all based on picking and choosing which stats get highlighted in the article. Look at Vrana’s per minute production he must be driving Backstrom and Oshie, the Caps don’t play him enough #hottake

The Red Wings did have all of the leverage in this trade though. They could have sat back and waited until the offseason to trade Mantha if they really wanted to. On the other hand the Capitals really were in an untenable situation with Vrana’s minutes decreasing and him looking less and less interested. If they didn’t trade him now and getting a similar quality or better player in return they were looking at entering the postseason with one of their most talented forwards not performing and not being trusted to perform.

I don’t think it’s as easy as saying that since the Capitals gave up a first round pick that means Mantha is by default the better player. I think he’s going to be a better fit in DC and for that reason I think 3 years of Mantha is definitely worth 3 years of Vrana a first round pick, but I also think there is a decent chance Vrana goes on and becomes a star in Detroit.

The points everyone have made about Vrana clashing with his coaches are well-taken. I think it’s possible it happens again in Detroit. But I also think it’s possible Vrana becomes great in Detroit and the Capitals are left wondering if they could have done something differently to maximize his talents.

 

[txpd]

But I also think it’s possible Vrana becomes great in Detroit and the Capitals are left wondering if they could have done something differently to maximize his talents.

Hmm....If you were to project one course going forward, it would be this one. Yes?

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Vrana was a one trick pony All he could was cherry pick for breakaways and he had very average moves. When the D get harder in the playoffs Vrana game went away. He had the game winner on his stick on the OT breakaway vs NYI and much like Vrana does missed the net and we got scored against right after.
I much more like Mantha using his size and going to the net. Have we ever seen Vrana take a beating infront of the net that lead to a goal? Maybe He did vs the Sabres or Devils but Vrana was MIA vs hard skating teams that challenge his speed like the Canes and Isles.

Go have fun cherry picking and getting cheap points Vrana I hope he gets paid all the money he wasnt going to get here.

 

[txpd]

Right.

sorry.....and Mantha already has 1G and 1A on the PP in 4 games, yes?

Even for a small sample size, that’s....pretty good?

so what is the point again?

Note that Vrana has 4 power play points this season. 0 power play goals.

 

[artilector]

Maybe the Caps need to re-think something in terms of drafting mid-/late- 1st-round skilled wingers like Burakovsky and Vrana. They just haven't fit. Kuz would likely be in the same boat if the Caps weren't in dire need of a center at the time, which kind of forced them to stick with Kuz at center. Curiously, the one time they got a guy which would've clearly fit, Forsberg, they gave up on him easily.

Perhaps they've overvalued a trait like top-end speed over work-rate/motor. All these guys have had the top-end speed but not the motor -- which has been the one thing that the Caps have lacked for a decade. As for Forsberg, the one reason that was cited in trading him was that he was slow, IIRC.

Or is it simply the case that most skilled draft prospects have motor issues - on account of being able to dominate juniors without working hard?

 

[Silky mitts]

The Red Wings did have all of the leverage in this trade though. They could have sat back and waited until the offseason to trade Mantha if they really wanted to. On the other hand the Capitals really were in an untenable situation with Vrana’s minutes decreasing and him looking less and less interested. If they didn’t trade him now and getting a similar quality or better player in return they were looking at entering the postseason with one of their most talented forwards not performing and not being trusted to perform.

I don’t think it’s as easy as saying that since the Capitals gave up a first round pick that means Mantha is by default the better player. I think he’s going to be a better fit in DC and for that reason I think 3 years of Mantha is definitely worth 3 years of Vrana a first round pick, but I also think there is a decent chance Vrana goes on and becomes a star in Detroit.

The points everyone have made about Vrana clashing with his coaches are well-taken. I think it’s possible it happens again in Detroit. But I also think it’s possible Vrana becomes great in Detroit and the Capitals are left wondering if they could have done something differently to maximize his talents.

The Caps didn’t have to trade Vrana, it wasn’t like Bura or Stephenson where there wasn’t production, plus the Caps were in 1st, they could have stood pat. It wasn’t like Taylor Hall where a pending UFA will only play for 1 team. And I think a week in it seems likelier Martha’s talents weren’t being maximized more than Varna’s.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

The Caps didn’t have to trade Vrana, it wasn’t like Bura or Stephenson where there wasn’t production, plus the Caps were in 1st, they could have stood pat. It wasn’t like Taylor Hall where a pending UFA will only play for 1 team. And I think a week in it seems likelier Martha’s talents weren’t being maximized more than Varna’s.

The 3 games in a row vs the NYI will show about Mantha. Vrana was a ghost man in our 5 game playoff last year. All 3 games could go into OT this week and it wouldnt shock me at all.

 

[Langway]

But I also think it’s possible Vrana becomes great in Detroit and the Capitals are left wondering if they could have done something differently to maximize his talents.

As long as Mantha is successful and the team has success I don't think they'll care how Vrana fares. It played out like it played out and something had to give. I think it's just as likely Detroit ends up trading him again for assets in a year or year and a half for more magic beans. That team isn't close. It's about as barebones a roster as you're going to find and I'm skeptical of the long-term fit given that Yzerman historically drives a pretty hard bargain. Maybe the two sides reach a long-term agreement but in Vrana's shoes I wouldn't give a discount just because they believe in him. I don't know that Yzerman sees him more than just an asset at this stage. I'd be surprised under the circumstances that he does become a great player in Detroit without Yzerman being much more active adding other good players around him. Playing time helps but I wouldn't doubt he's moved again for a Tatar type package if Yzerman sticks to a relatively austere plan centered around the more marquee 2022/2023 drafts. That could pay off but I do wonder how attractive that is in the meantime.

It's not hard to see why a player like Mantha could have a tough time being on a bottom five team for four plus seasons. It can be tough to develop in a longstanding losing environment. For me that's an underrated key factor at play here. I'd tend to bet on the successful team doing a better job of assessment and maximizing returns than the perennially losing one.

 

[txpd]

Not sure if this is the right thread for this or not. Just Dan Rosen on NHLN doing is power rankings. He has the Caps at 4th in the east. Just shaking my head.

 

[SDBondra]

Completely disagree. Carlson is as good with the wheelhouse pass to the right wing as he is to the left wing. The issue is that the right wing guys are not big one time shooters. The trouble with getting Ovechkin his shot is that there is no threat to score on the right. There is some eye test evidence that Oshie has scored enough in the bumper spot that opposing pk's are coming off Ov to stop Oshie.

Schultz is fine at setting up the one timer. Its an easier pass going back to the right wing anyway

They could legitimately try Orlov over there if they wanted a cannon one-timer. He’s been dropping bombs lately. I think the combo of Backstrom/Kuzy/Oshie does a really nice job of balancing the power play though. If you shade Ovie those guys just pick you apart.

 

[txpd]

They could legitimately try Orlov over there if they wanted a cannon one-timer. He’s been dropping bombs lately. I think the combo of Backstrom/Kuzy/Oshie does a really nice job of balancing the power play though. If you shade Ovie those guys just pick you apart.

What opposing PK's have been doing for the past 2 seasons is putting one man on Ov straight up(no shading) and then packing the other 3 around Oshie. That also tends to take away Carlson's shooting lanes. They then let half wall guy do what he wants. Dares him to shoot. Neither 19, 92 or Vrana shoot a one timer and so they are always facing a set up goalie.

The Caps for their part have made adjustments to Oshie. Playing for more deflections than passes in the bumper to shoot. The guy watching Ov opens up the back side of that bumper protection for Oshie to deflect shots. Pressuring that open space then opens up Ov. The Caps pp is 2nd in the league. Taking away Ov is working to keep Ov off the board but its not killing off the penalties anymore. Time for a new plan

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

They could legitimately try Orlov over there if they wanted a cannon one-timer. He’s been dropping bombs lately. I think the combo of Backstrom/Kuzy/Oshie does a really nice job of balancing the power play though. If you shade Ovie those guys just pick you apart.

Orlov and Mantha could be a dream PP2... Might need Kuz on that 2nd unit

edit: Orlov to Mantha at all stages of the game

1-3-1 PP
PP1
Carly
Ovie Backy Oshie
Wilson

pp2
Orlov
Sheary Kuzy Mantha
Eller

I could make a few changes to those lines but they look strong

 

[YippieKaey]

This is internet in a nutshell. TRASHCAT came upon an article that he didn't read because the title implied that a player from his team will be criticized. Based on this, he formed an opinion that the whole Athletic service is junk. People in the comments section agreed and what more proof do you need.

AlexBrovechkin8, who also didn't read the article, quickly formed an opinion that if the article was written by Dom, which it was not, the article is junk and is not worth reading.

Dumb and nobody, who didn't read the article not written by Dom Luszczyszyn, has no idea who this guy Dom is, quickly concluded that Dom is wrong and his model is wrong.

In conclusion, nobody read the article not written by Dom that states that one of Anthony Mantha's most valued traits is his ability to perform on the power play. Namely, he is one of the highest one-timer PP volume shooters in the league, typically manning the right point in a 1-3-1 PP formation. Essentially, he is the Ovechkin, if Ovechkin was a left shot. The article reaches a rather non-controversial conclusion that seen as how Caps' have the top power play in the league, it's highly unlikely that they will randomly decide to flip it on it's head. Anyway, having an Ovechkin on the right side is great in principle but doesn't work worth s**t in reality because you don't have a Backstrom on the left, Carlson cannot dish out perfect one-timer passes on his backhand and the actual Ovechkin plays the whole 2 minutes of every powerplay.

Stands to reason, that Caps might not be able to fully utilize all of Mantha's skillset.

And yet he has scored one goal per game played. So maybe the article was off which is what all the three posters you quoted were saying?