Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 4

Discussion in 'Washington Capitals' started by Calicaps, Apr 7, 2021.

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  1. Silky mitts It’s yours boys and girls and babes let’s go!

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    I reject this premise on the basis of our successful GM trading a 1st to make up the difference and Mantha being a 0.88 ppg player last season. And it’s all based on picking and choosing which stats get highlighted in the article. Look at Vrana’s per minute production he must be driving Backstrom and Oshie, the Caps don’t play him enough #hottake
     
  2. Dumb and nobody Registered User

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    Well I did qualify it with the word if.

    I have formed no opinions on Dom. Still haven't. Was merely opining on the fine tuning of analytics models.
     
  3. crab Registered User

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    I don’t think you can get much worse than Vrana in the playoffs so it should be a net positive there.
     
  4. g00n t0m WiLs0n PhAnBoI

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    VV:
    upload_2021-4-21_15-24-13.png

    Sammy:
    upload_2021-4-21_15-24-40.png


    If going by save% then VV for all 3 teams. But if you're playing Philly you might want to start Sammy (granted VV has one crap game vs PHI). Also worth noting Sammy only has one start vs BOS.
     
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  5. traparatus Registered User

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    That's all fair. I didn't come away convinced after reading the article either. Still, it presented an interesting hypothesis and some information on Mantha that I didn't know prior to reading. Also, the notion that Mantha will not get to enjoy the level and quality of deployment that has contributed to his success in the past is not controversial. It's a statement of fact. It doesn't mean that he will not adapt or take advantage of playing with better centers but it's something that warrants keeping an eye on.

    I'm a fan of people making predictions based on their analysis, even when these predictions go against basic scoring stats. Short term point stats are random as all hell, anyway. Mantha has shot at some ~35% success rate with the Caps. I'm guessing that's not going to continue.
     
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  6. txpd Registered User

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    Right now the stats dont help Sammy. Its still pedigree and to the extent pedigree aids perception.
     
  7. Ridley Simon Registered User

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    Right.

    sorry.....and Mantha already has 1G and 1A on the PP in 4 games, yes?

    Even for a small sample size, that’s....pretty good?

    so what is the point again?
     
  8. Silky mitts It’s yours boys and girls and babes let’s go!

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    First of all thank you for your service of reading it.
    But aimed at the writer Detroit’s xGF on the PP drop 4% with Mantha on the ice and they only average 2.8 GF/60 on the PP with him this season (the last 2 seasons his PP on ice GF/60 were in a cluster with his unit).

    But we’re talking about the difference between Mantha and Vrana on PP2 when transition game gets you nothing and Mantha’s ability to enter the zone provides added value before you even get to the one timer.

    Lots of details in Pell’s piece on Mantha today, I didn’t know Knuble was one of his AHL coaches
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/spor...ial&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=wp_sports
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2021
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  9. Langway Thoughts & Prayers

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    But it does not follow that being on PP2 means Mantha isn't nonetheless a fairly significant upgrade. It does not follow that Washington didn't improve just because of some theoretical parity between Mantha and Vrana (a motivated Vrana did not exist). It does not follow that just because their PP is already strong that a more robust PP2 isn't an improvement. Under these general lines of analysis I think anyone would struggle to be identified as an improvement given the bar set. Mantha need not be a 'seismic' upgrade over a theoretically motivated Vrana to nonetheless be an improvement (potentially a very significant one). In consistency, defense and possession Mantha has already added more than Vrana ever has (and that's not even getting into his playoff performance and pending raise). Banking on that just being a small sample size is pretty rich.

    Defense and goaltending could be far more problematic when it matters and in light of that it could be fair to argue those should have been bigger deadline targets. But that's not the point being made. This is already an obvious upgrade and no amount of goal post movement changes it. Unfortunately, Sportlogiq is unable to supply these writers consideration of factors like a winning culture or better teammates. Even aside from those obvious positives that will further help Mantha going forward, the main problem is the shifted goal post of needing to be a seismic upgrade over a theoretically motivated player. Tough room. Similarly, Janmark for a second rounder does not really need to move the needle to be an improvement. Of course, it's just an article and such oversimplifications drive views I guess. But it's not great writing per se. It's just handy Sportlogiq references dressed up as insight.
     
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  10. traparatus Registered User

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    I don't disagree with any of this and that's the way my opinion is currently leaning, too. I'm somewhat reluctant to spend a lot of time discussing potential merits of Caps 2nd PP unit. It receives very limited use and the issue is not presence or absence of Mantha. The issue is that Kuznetsov, Backstrom ad Eller are left handed shots and play on the right side. It makes no difference how good the shooter on the right is because Caps don't have anybody to consistently set that player up.

    I obviously cannot just Mantha's consistency based on 4 games that he has played. He has looked pretty good. Not 4 goals in 4 games good but good nonetheless.
     
  11. txpd Registered User

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    Completely disagree. Carlson is as good with the wheelhouse pass to the right wing as he is to the left wing. The issue is that the right wing guys are not big one time shooters. The trouble with getting Ovechkin his shot is that there is no threat to score on the right. There is some eye test evidence that Oshie has scored enough in the bumper spot that opposing pk's are coming off Ov to stop Oshie.

    Schultz is fine at setting up the one timer. Its an easier pass going back to the right wing anyway
     
  12. Langway Thoughts & Prayers

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    I'm not sure that really matters unless Mantha is a one-dimensional one-timer ace utterly incapable of producing other shots and otherwise adjusting. It's an interesting stat but one used to make a dumb conclusion. He has a wicked wrister, has shown 5-on-5 that he can go to the net for the tap-in play and is an underrated playmaker. He'll adjust.

    If that's such an essential strategic component then Orlov would be the answer but it really isn't IMO.
     
  13. twabby Registered User

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    The Red Wings did have all of the leverage in this trade though. They could have sat back and waited until the offseason to trade Mantha if they really wanted to. On the other hand the Capitals really were in an untenable situation with Vrana’s minutes decreasing and him looking less and less interested. If they didn’t trade him now and getting a similar quality or better player in return they were looking at entering the postseason with one of their most talented forwards not performing and not being trusted to perform.

    I don’t think it’s as easy as saying that since the Capitals gave up a first round pick that means Mantha is by default the better player. I think he’s going to be a better fit in DC and for that reason I think 3 years of Mantha is definitely worth 3 years of Vrana a first round pick, but I also think there is a decent chance Vrana goes on and becomes a star in Detroit.

    The points everyone have made about Vrana clashing with his coaches are well-taken. I think it’s possible it happens again in Detroit. But I also think it’s possible Vrana becomes great in Detroit and the Capitals are left wondering if they could have done something differently to maximize his talents.
     
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  14. txpd Registered User

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    Hmm....If you were to project one course going forward, it would be this one. Yes?
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2021
  15. Ovechkins Wodka Registered User

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    Vrana was a one trick pony All he could was cherry pick for breakaways and he had very average moves. When the D get harder in the playoffs Vrana game went away. He had the game winner on his stick on the OT breakaway vs NYI and much like Vrana does missed the net and we got scored against right after.
    I much more like Mantha using his size and going to the net. Have we ever seen Vrana take a beating infront of the net that lead to a goal? Maybe He did vs the Sabres or Devils but Vrana was MIA vs hard skating teams that challenge his speed like the Canes and Isles.

    Go have fun cherry picking and getting cheap points Vrana I hope he gets paid all the money he wasnt going to get here.
     
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  16. txpd Registered User

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    Note that Vrana has 4 power play points this season. 0 power play goals.
     
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  17. artilector Registered User

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    Maybe the Caps need to re-think something in terms of drafting mid-/late- 1st-round skilled wingers like Burakovsky and Vrana. They just haven't fit. Kuz would likely be in the same boat if the Caps weren't in dire need of a center at the time, which kind of forced them to stick with Kuz at center. Curiously, the one time they got a guy which would've clearly fit, Forsberg, they gave up on him easily.

    Perhaps they've overvalued a trait like top-end speed over work-rate/motor. All these guys have had the top-end speed but not the motor -- which has been the one thing that the Caps have lacked for a decade. As for Forsberg, the one reason that was cited in trading him was that he was slow, IIRC.

    Or is it simply the case that most skilled draft prospects have motor issues - on account of being able to dominate juniors without working hard?
     
  18. Silky mitts It’s yours boys and girls and babes let’s go!

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    The Caps didn’t have to trade Vrana, it wasn’t like Bura or Stephenson where there wasn’t production, plus the Caps were in 1st, they could have stood pat. It wasn’t like Taylor Hall where a pending UFA will only play for 1 team. And I think a week in it seems likelier Martha’s talents weren’t being maximized more than Varna’s.
     
  19. Ovechkins Wodka Registered User

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    The 3 games in a row vs the NYI will show about Mantha. Vrana was a ghost man in our 5 game playoff last year. All 3 games could go into OT this week and it wouldnt shock me at all.
     
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  20. Langway Thoughts & Prayers

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    As long as Mantha is successful and the team has success I don't think they'll care how Vrana fares. It played out like it played out and something had to give. I think it's just as likely Detroit ends up trading him again for assets in a year or year and a half for more magic beans. That team isn't close. It's about as barebones a roster as you're going to find and I'm skeptical of the long-term fit given that Yzerman historically drives a pretty hard bargain. Maybe the two sides reach a long-term agreement but in Vrana's shoes I wouldn't give a discount just because they believe in him. I don't know that Yzerman sees him more than just an asset at this stage. I'd be surprised under the circumstances that he does become a great player in Detroit without Yzerman being much more active adding other good players around him. Playing time helps but I wouldn't doubt he's moved again for a Tatar type package if Yzerman sticks to a relatively austere plan centered around the more marquee 2022/2023 drafts. That could pay off but I do wonder how attractive that is in the meantime.

    It's not hard to see why a player like Mantha could have a tough time being on a bottom five team for four plus seasons. It can be tough to develop in a longstanding losing environment. For me that's an underrated key factor at play here. I'd tend to bet on the successful team doing a better job of assessment and maximizing returns than the perennially losing one.
     
  21. txpd Registered User

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    Not sure if this is the right thread for this or not. Just Dan Rosen on NHLN doing is power rankings. He has the Caps at 4th in the east. Just shaking my head.
     
  22. SDBondra Registered User

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    They could legitimately try Orlov over there if they wanted a cannon one-timer. He’s been dropping bombs lately. I think the combo of Backstrom/Kuzy/Oshie does a really nice job of balancing the power play though. If you shade Ovie those guys just pick you apart.
     
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  23. txpd Registered User

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    What opposing PK's have been doing for the past 2 seasons is putting one man on Ov straight up(no shading) and then packing the other 3 around Oshie. That also tends to take away Carlson's shooting lanes. They then let half wall guy do what he wants. Dares him to shoot. Neither 19, 92 or Vrana shoot a one timer and so they are always facing a set up goalie.

    The Caps for their part have made adjustments to Oshie. Playing for more deflections than passes in the bumper to shoot. The guy watching Ov opens up the back side of that bumper protection for Oshie to deflect shots. Pressuring that open space then opens up Ov. The Caps pp is 2nd in the league. Taking away Ov is working to keep Ov off the board but its not killing off the penalties anymore. Time for a new plan
     
  24. Ovechkins Wodka Registered User

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    Orlov and Mantha could be a dream PP2... Might need Kuz on that 2nd unit

    edit: Orlov to Mantha at all stages of the game

    1-3-1 PP
    PP1
    Carly
    Ovie Backy Oshie
    Wilson

    pp2
    Orlov
    Sheary Kuzy Mantha
    Eller

    I could make a few changes to those lines but they look strong
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2021
  25. YippieKaey Registered User

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    And yet he has scored one goal per game played. So maybe the article was off which is what all the three posters you quoted were saying?
     
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