Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 4

[txpd]

Okay, but you can’t really pull the trigger any faster than that without being blown out in game 2 anyway, so I’m not sure what your point is here.

Jackets series was as good as over too, until it wasn’t. Nothing really different about this team compared to that one except narratives.

Nope. You cant. You are pretty well stuck.

 

[HTFN]

Nope. You cant. You are pretty well stuck.

... but what are you arguing against here? Your other options are to be winning so none of this matters, or be losing and continue to start a goaltender who is giving you visibly weak performances. Aren't you the one who vehemently believes in starting performance over pedigree?

0-2 in a series isn't a guaranteed fail state, and it's the soonest reasonable point to make a goaltending switch (unless you're already getting blown out in Game 2, in which case you can give the switch some reps before Game 3). Going with one goaltender for the whole series just because "tandems don't happen in the playoffs" is a stupid way to accept defeat.

 

[txpd]

... but what are you arguing against here? Your other options are to be winning so none of this matters, or be losing and continue to start a goaltender who is giving you visibly weak performances. Aren't you the one who vehemently believes in starting performance over pedigree?

0-2 in a series isn't a guaranteed fail state, and it's the soonest reasonable point to make a goaltending switch (unless you're already getting blown out in Game 2, in which case you can give the switch some reps before Game 3). Going with one goaltender for the whole series just because "tandems don't happen in the playoffs" is a stupid way to accept defeat.

I think the last time an actual tandem won a cup it was Eddie Johnston and Gerry Cheevers in Boston. The Jose Theodore start the playoffs and be replaced by Varlamov as soon as he sucks didnt work. Even the cup was just 2 games for Grubs and Holtby started all the rest.

They are going to start with Samsonov and Vanecek will only play if they are desperate and going down in flames. I would not be surprised if he doesnt play even then. The most likely scenario for Vanecek to play and they win is Sammy cant handle the 5-10 games in a row and gets hurt. I dont think he has ever done that before. Has he started more then 3 in a row in his career?

What am I arguing against? I dont like giving a guy a job on pedigree. Thats all.

 

[HTFN]

I think the last time an actual tandem won a cup it was Eddie Johnston and Gerry Cheevers in Boston. The Jose Theodore start the playoffs and be replaced by Varlamov as soon as he sucks didnt work. Even the cup was just 2 games for Grubs and Holtby started all the rest.

They are going to start with Samsonov and Vanecek will only play if they are desperate and going down in flames. I would not be surprised if he doesnt play even then. The most likely scenario for Vanecek to play and they win is Sammy cant handle the 5-10 games in a row and gets hurt. I dont think he has ever done that before. Has he started more then 3 in a row in his career?

What am I arguing against? I dont like giving a guy a job on pedigree. Thats all.

Yeah, tell me some more things with absolute certainty. It generally works so well for you.

You think that even though switching in '18 won them the series and an eventual Cup, the Capitals will just ride whichever goaltender they start (and you're 100% certain it's going to be Samsonov) all the way to their inevitable flame out? That it has to be desperation instead of a calculated, measured response to two green goaltenders? Once again, you're forecasting something you can't know and slanting it to make the team look like they've already made the wrong decision.

 

[txpd]

Yeah, tell me some more things with absolute certainty. It generally works so well for you.

You think that even though switching in '18 won them the series and an eventual Cup, the Capitals will just ride whichever goaltender they start (and you're 100% certain it's going to be Samsonov) all the way to their inevitable flame out? That it has to be desperation instead of a calculated, measured response to two green goaltenders? Once again, you're forecasting something you can't know and slanting it to make the team look like they've already made the wrong decision.

I didnt say its the wrong decision. I questions it but we all know that my opinion vs right or wrong is mixed. My impression is that neither goalie is a disaster in the making. That the Caps will win if they play well enough that they dont need the goalie to win the games for them.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Tearing down what Sammy just did? Which means what? He played a brilliant game with no offensive support and followed it with an average game that if he couldnt win, he doesnt deserve to play. If the Caps lose that game 3-2, do you feel the same way?

Come on. IF?

They didn’t lose. I could throw dozens of IF’s at this. You wanted VV, I get it. Still might be him. Don’t discredit the G that beat the Isles back to back on the road

 

[Ridley Simon]

again huge if...

Why?

 

[crab]

I think the last time an actual tandem won a cup it was Eddie Johnston and Gerry Cheevers in Boston. The Jose Theodore start the playoffs and be replaced by Varlamov as soon as he sucks didnt work. Even the cup was just 2 games for Grubs and Holtby started all the rest.

They are going to start with Samsonov and Vanecek will only play if they are desperate and going down in flames. I would not be surprised if he doesnt play even then. The most likely scenario for Vanecek to play and they win is Sammy cant handle the 5-10 games in a row and gets hurt. I dont think he has ever done that before. Has he started more then 3 in a row in his career?

What am I arguing against? I dont like giving a guy a job on pedigree. Thats all.

Fleury/Murray just did it recently.

 

[Bananas]

Fleury/Murray just did it recently.

Yeah but their names rhyme...

 

[um]

Fleury/Murray just did it recently.

that was through injuries, right?

 

[artilector]

Re: goalies, here's my 2c:

1.
The reality is that neither VV nor IS have built up anywhere near enough reputation/trust to secure the position in any meaningful way over the other guy. Who will start playoffs is a coin toss depending on how the remaining games will go. But even after that, IMO the leash can't really be any longer than ~2 bad/subpar games (if that) -- you don't know if the young guy will recover mentally under playoff pressure, so at least go to the rested and mentally fresh guy (of very similar ability).

2.
Since Samsonov came back into the rotation on Feb 28, numbers show (assuming I did them correctly) that whenever the Caps coaches switched from one goalie to the other (e.g. after a bad game), they got a cumulative SV% of 0.920 in that first game after the switch (542 of 589 shots saved in 21 such games). Compare this to their overall SV% of 0.913 during the same time period. (Note: I excluded the weird Apr 1 Samsonov "concussion" game, with which the numbers change to .913 and .907 respectively, so ofc lower percentages but same overall story).

This suggests that as a tandem, VV and IS have been pretty good at responding after switches -- in fact clearly better, it seems, than they have been at staying sharp. Also, the Caps' coaches have been pretty good at making these decisions. So why should the Caps worry about using these same quick-yank tactics in playoffs, if it has worked pretty well so far? If anything, one might be tempted to ask the question of whether the Caps could be better off changing these goalies even after good games!

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Good news. Ovechkin’s wife posted some videos (presumably from yesterday) of him goofin with his sons and he looks fine. He even did a few mock squats.

 

[Evgeny Oliker]

Any idea what the Ovy injury is? Groin maybe?

will there be an update from Caps today on his status for tomorrow?

 

[GoCaps2004]

Well, now I am concerned that it might be long term.

 

[kicksavedave]

Well, now I am concerned that it might be long term.

Heh, everyone's a skeptic.

 

[crab]

that was through injuries, right?

Yes Murray got injured. It was a 1A/1B tandem though and no way the Penguins beat the Capitals without Fleury standing on his head. Fleury also played the majority of the games.

 

[Melkor]

That’s true now, it wasn’t true then. He was inexplicably, almost backbreakingly leaky for a few years and if memory serves it was a big reason they had to keep Bishop around, because every time they tried to elevate Vasilevskiy’s workload his brains seemed to leak out of his ears. Like Samsonov, they wanted him to take the reigns and he just wouldn’t seize control, and for all his potential you’d catch him whizzing across the crease taking himself out of plays as a younger goalie. Not to Samsonov’s degree, but he was hardly perfect.

It took a few years to dislodge some of those tendencies and make a guy who delivered on that potential.

He wasn't perfect I agree but I see fundamentals when they are there. With Samsonov they are at nearly rudimentary stage. Vasilevski was much more polished in that regard. I'm not arguing his mental breakdowns, actually mentioned them in the first sentence. It's just his main problem was of that nature and just that. With Samsonov you have a mix of serious issues in terms of skill and his mental fortitude. Watch even his shutout games or the games where he allows 2 or less. The guy is clearly in discomfort in net. Sometimes he looks like he tries to do even more than required, sometimes he is not able to do basic stuff. You can't help but go "dude, if you skated out the net to play the puck then play the damn puck, don't look so scared". With most goalies if they're in the zone then they're in the zone, you can tell tonight they are the real problem for the opposition. With IS you're never sure what you're getting in the end even if the stats tell you he's good.

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

 

[John Price]

Rest him as a precaution

Teams playoff bound anyway. And they put up 6 goals without him Saturday.

 

[txpd]

Come on. IF?

They didn’t lose. I could throw dozens of IF’s at this. You wanted VV, I get it. Still might be him. Don’t discredit the G that beat the Isles back to back on the road

You dont do ifs. Fine. You are giving credit to a goalie for a win with 6 goals for a blown 2 goal lead, a soft shorthanded goal against and 21 saves on 24 shots. You want to tag that with the previous shutout and say they were both good games. I see it different.

It wont be Vanecek. In fact, it makes perfect sense to start Samsonov tomorrow. A win really gives the Caps something to hang over the Islanders should they see each other in the playoffs. With 2 games following against the Pens it makes perfect sense to go with Sammy there for the same reason. Vanecek gets a tune up against the Rangers and one of a back to back at the end of the season which will be enough to keep him sharp should he be needed. Thats what logic tells me is coming based on what we have seen.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I think Ovie wants to go but his injury isnt letting him yet. Glad his still around the team

 

[txpd]

Fleury/Murray just did it recently.

MAF played all of the first and second round games after Murray was injured. He gave up 3 goals in the first 2 eastern conference final games. He had a bad game 3 and never played again.

 

[txpd]

Good news. Ovechkin’s wife posted some videos (presumably from yesterday) of him goofin with his sons and he looks fine. He even did a few mock squats.

My experience with skating injuries is that you arent restricted when walking and running. Not sure that video means anything but I can take the good news anyway

 

[txpd]

He wasn't perfect I agree but I see fundamentals when they are there. With Samsonov they are at nearly rudimentary stage. Vasilevski was much more polished in that regard. I'm not arguing his mental breakdowns, actually mentioned them in the first sentence. It's just his main problem was of that nature and just that. With Samsonov you have a mix of serious issues in terms of skill and his mental fortitude. Watch even his shutout games or the games where he allows 2 or less. The guy is clearly in discomfort in net. Sometimes he looks like he tries to do even more than required, sometimes he is not able to do basic stuff. You can't help but go "dude, if you skated out the net to play the puck then play the damn puck, don't look so scared". With most goalies if they're in the zone then they're in the zone, you can tell tonight they are the real problem for the opposition. With IS you're never sure what you're getting in the end even if the stats tell you he's good.

Samsonov reminds me a lot of the Caps version of Varlamov. Explosively athletic and injury prone as a result.

 

[Calicaps]

Part 5