Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 2

[Ridley Simon]

Aren't we already halfway there?

More like 80%

 

[filinski77]

Hilariously bad post that I saw on the Malkin IIHF main board thread:

"Yeah, I never understood why people view "hits" as a positive for Ovechkin. Most of his hits are not very influential on the play. I mean, sure, it takes its toll and the guy is a truck, but, to me, it is not something that enhances his game tremendously. I'd love to see a "heat map" of Ovechkin. He seems to spend A LOT of time on the perimeter (which is not a criticism, he is a shooter and he gets open, that's his job). He does not seem to be a "dirty area" guy. Which, once again, is not a criticism; with his shot, he does not need to be. His biggest value is getting open and unleashing that shot.

I really fail to see how the NUMBER of hits is an enhancer. I feel like it is a failed attempt at picturing him as a complete player/power forward. He is a VERY powerful/strong player, but I never saw him as a pure power forward. Of the rush, he definitely overpowers defenders though, so I guess it is semantics. Anyway, we are discussing the best of the bests here, so I guess some weird differentiators need to be found."

 

[txpd]

Yea, his hitting has no value. Just ask Joey Hamilton or maybe Joe Girardi

 

[crazy8888]

Hilariously bad post that I saw on the Malkin IIHF main board thread:

"Yeah, I never understood why people view "hits" as a positive for Ovechkin. Most of his hits are not very influential on the play. I mean, sure, it takes its toll and the guy is a truck, but, to me, it is not something that enhances his game tremendously. I'd love to see a "heat map" of Ovechkin. He seems to spend A LOT of time on the perimeter (which is not a criticism, he is a shooter and he gets open, that's his job). He does not seem to be a "dirty area" guy. Which, once again, is not a criticism; with his shot, he does not need to be. His biggest value is getting open and unleashing that shot.

I really fail to see how the NUMBER of hits is an enhancer. I feel like it is a failed attempt at picturing him as a complete player/power forward. He is a VERY powerful/strong player, but I never saw him as a pure power forward. Of the rush, he definitely overpowers defenders though, so I guess it is semantics. Anyway, we are discussing the best of the bests here, so I guess some weird differentiators need to be found."

Some people just fail to see how unique Ovi is. But one fools opinion is another's reason to have a good laugh. It would not feel as good to root for Ovi if everyone loved him. All the haters make success that much sweeter

 

[Neil Racki]

Hilariously bad post that I saw on the Malkin IIHF main board thread:

"Yeah, I never understood why people view "hits" as a positive for Ovechkin. Most of his hits are not very influential on the play. I mean, sure, it takes its toll and the guy is a truck, but, to me, it is not something that enhances his game tremendously. I'd love to see a "heat map" of Ovechkin. He seems to spend A LOT of time on the perimeter (which is not a criticism, he is a shooter and he gets open, that's his job). He does not seem to be a "dirty area" guy. Which, once again, is not a criticism; with his shot, he does not need to be. His biggest value is getting open and unleashing that shot.

I really fail to see how the NUMBER of hits is an enhancer. I feel like it is a failed attempt at picturing him as a complete player/power forward. He is a VERY powerful/strong player, but I never saw him as a pure power forward. Of the rush, he definitely overpowers defenders though, so I guess it is semantics. Anyway, we are discussing the best of the bests here, so I guess some weird differentiators need to be found."

Hitting on dump ins = poor clearing attempts = offensive turnovers = goals

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Re: Kuznetsov —

we can’t really claim “small sample size” for twabby’s fancy stats (as a way to demean them), and then turn right around and complain about his .55/pt game in that exact same sample size.

it’s one or the other, isn’t it? All stats are discounted due to sample size, or all are counted?

Kuznetsov is playing a more rounded, 200ft game, from what I can tell. In doing so, it *may* be impacting his points production.

is this new Kuz worth his 7.8m contract? I don’t know yet. Need the full season (and the playoffs) to truly determine that.

Just my opinion (and said earlier, I think the points will come)

well that’s the concern....it’s not just this year....Kuzy is a multi-season underperformer/loafer....lol....come on Rids. You know what’s being discussed here. It’s the larger picture with Kuzy....

the only reason this nonsense with proclaiming his upward trend or devaluing anything on 11 games, is that’s what Twabby used as evidence to defend him....and here we are.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Which is why I said his 2 goals is only 2 goals off of a 30 goal pace so basically "nothing to see here".

(Even though your numbers are a little low) I mean I immediately agreed with you at the time, and said ok let’s wait and see if that production comes, yet the vociferous defense of 92 continued....

Overall it’s a multi-season discussion with Kuzy at this point IMO.

 

[tenken00]

Hilariously bad post that I saw on the Malkin IIHF main board thread:

"Yeah, I never understood why people view "hits" as a positive for Ovechkin. Most of his hits are not very influential on the play. I mean, sure, it takes its toll and the guy is a truck, but, to me, it is not something that enhances his game tremendously. I'd love to see a "heat map" of Ovechkin. He seems to spend A LOT of time on the perimeter (which is not a criticism, he is a shooter and he gets open, that's his job). He does not seem to be a "dirty area" guy. Which, once again, is not a criticism; with his shot, he does not need to be. His biggest value is getting open and unleashing that shot.

I really fail to see how the NUMBER of hits is an enhancer. I feel like it is a failed attempt at picturing him as a complete player/power forward. He is a VERY powerful/strong player, but I never saw him as a pure power forward. Of the rush, he definitely overpowers defenders though, so I guess it is semantics. Anyway, we are discussing the best of the bests here, so I guess some weird differentiators need to be found."

I don't even bother with Pens fans in regards to Ovechkin's legacy anymore. I'm already losing brain cells daily, don't need steep drops with what little I have left.

 

[Ridley Simon]

well that’s the concern....it’s not just this year....Kuzy is a multi-season underperformer/loafer....lol....come on Rids. You know what’s being discussed here. It’s the larger picture with Kuzy....

the only reason this nonsense with proclaiming his upward trend or devaluing anything on 11 games, is that’s what Twabby used as evidence to defend him....and here we are.

I’m simply not sold that’s he woefully underperforming yet. I’m just not.

did he under Reirden? Sure. But a lot of players did. Doesn’t mean I’m admonishing him of responsibility here, and candidly his off ice antics bother me far more than his on ice antics. But obv they are probably tied to each other.

I think he’s being coached to play a different way. And that may take a few games — if not half a season

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Right so here’s the second defense.....now it’s a Reirden thing, not Kuzy. I don’t buy it, but I’m willing to wait and see if this production rebound comes. I really hope it does.

If Lavi can’t get more consistent results, not sure what coach could....

PS - I never used an exaggerated term like woefully underperforming.....just underperforming.

 

[Corby78]

Randomness? Coaching? I'm pretty sure in searching for excuses for flaws in your statistical models you argued yourself in a circle, and whether you realize it or not came to the conclusion that there are enough unquantifiable, mitigating factors in predicting outcomes that raw statistical representation isn't enough to tell the story.

You can parse out 22 or 23% to a million decimal places and it's still only halfway to coin-flip. Rounding is not sample size.

Regarding sample size, there are formulas and calculators for that. You can look them up, and test to see if 1,000 vs 239 million is the same as 1,000 vs 2.1 Trillion. (Hint: the sample size needed is a hell of a lot more than 1,000).

There's also the fact that polling questions have set outcomes among populations that are generally known to behave in certain patterns, so even the mathematically relevant sample size to produce the desired confidence level might shrink. That's not the same as digging for performance metrics represented by highly variable numbers as your data rather than answers to closed, multiple-choice questions.

But again, do the math and see what you find.

Are we at a point where we are using advanced stats to prove/disprove the validity of advanced stats? It’s hard for me to tell since I don’t speak “advanced stats”

also I honestly don’t want the answer

 

[txpd]

Right so here’s the second defense.....now it’s a Reirden thing, not Kuzy. I don’t buy it, but I’m willing to wait and see if this production rebound comes. I really hope it does.

If Lavi can’t get more consistent results, not sure what coach could....

The Caps chances of winning another cup and keeping the window open longer is based on Kuzy.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

continue to what? The tune of .55 PPG well?

If he continues to play the right way, the points will come.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If he continues to play the right way, the points will come.

that’s what I’m hearing lol...

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The Caps chances of winning another cup and keeping the window open longer is based on Kuzy.

or his replacement but yeah man, we all know Kuzy was supposed to be the transition star....all the more concerning.


Here’s my wild hot take nightmare scenario.........Kuzy will walk after his current deal expires and head home. It’s the same year Backstrom’s deal expires and presumably Ovy’s new deal will....end of 24-25....

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

that’s what I’m hearing lol...

This is a weird year. Have patience.

 

[txpd]

I think he’s being coached to play a different way. And that may take a few games — if not half a season

Thats fair. Maybe there is something about Laviolette's coaching that is harder on him than most of the other players. Maybe its his missing games. What is in black and white is that he is 8th on the team in points per game. That trend cant continue.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Caps are in a tough spot with Kuzy.

I see three options: ride through the 'storm' and he's an untouchable piece going forward (most likely), wait for his play to rebound and sell 'high' (in the next year or two), or sell at probably the 'lowest' league-wide perception of his value (on the premise that he is a PPG-plus level talent and just needs a change of scenery and kick in the ass).

At times, I do wonder how it would be for Ovi if Kuzy is moved. Ovi always seemed to be close to Semin (great friends), but, he understood the decision to move on from him. The last thing I'd want to do is throw a wrench in the locker room and disrupt the chemistry of the core nucleus and Russians.

 

[SherVaughn30]

Jimmy Waite was the goalie coach for the Habs/Price for 8 years and just got fired. Sean Burke was hired in his place. Waite is still highly regarded in the NHL goaltending community. If I were BMac and want to strongly improve/solidify Samsonov's/Vanacek's foothold with the team, I would fire Scott Murray and hire Jimmy Waite!

If we back track to 2018 during the season, the Caps demoted Scott Murray and had Mitch Korn try to get Holtby back on track. Korn was successful and fixed Holtby enough that Holtby got his game back together towards the end of the season and during the playoffs. Once Korn was completely gone, Holtby regressed and so did Copley and now Samsonov. Caps rookie goalies have had surprisingly solid 1st seasons, but then shown to take a step back the following season, as this is all under Scott Murray's direction.

It appears Copley/Fucale are having strong starts to their Hershey Bears season so far. But guess what, Murray is not in Hershey working with those 2, as it is Associate Goalie Coach Alex Westlund.

 

[Calicaps]

Jimmy Waite was the goalie coach for the Habs/Price for 8 years and just got fired. Sean Burke was hired in his place. Waite is still highly regarded in the NHL goaltending community. If I were BMac and want to strongly improve/solidify Samsonov's/Vanacek's foothold with the team, I would fire Scott Murray and hire Jimmy Waite!

If we back track to 2018 during the season, the Caps demoted Scott Murray and had Mitch Korn try to get Holtby back on track. Korn was successful and fixed Holtby enough that Holtby got his game back together towards the end of the season and during the playoffs. Once Korn was completely gone, Holtby regressed and so did Copley and now Samsonov. Caps rookie goalies have had surprisingly solid 1st seasons, but then shown to take a step back the following season, as this is all under Scott Murray's direction.

It appears Copley/Fucale are having strong starts to their Hershey Bears season so far. But guess what, Murray is not in Hershey working with those 2, as it is Associate Goalie Coach Alex Westlund.

This is such an odd hill to die on.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Sean Burke was pretty good wish him luck w the leafs this season

 

[txpd]

here’s my wild hot take nightmare scenario.........Kuzy will walk after his current deal expires and head home. It’s the same year Backstrom’s deal expires and presumably Ovy’s new deal will....end of 24-25....

Wouldnt shock me at all.

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

My question...why is the Ovi deal not done yet?

 

[Raikkonen]

Wouldnt shock me at all.

GMBM is out of moves. For Kuzy to retire as Cap he has to improve his stats, advanced stats and giveoshitmeter too.

 

[Calicaps]

My question...why is the Ovi deal not done yet?

You're gonna want to read back a few pages.