Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Regular Season Part 2

[Calicaps]

Part 1

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[cbtitan]

I hate to say this but Lapierre is wasting development precious time in the stands .
TheNHL is depending on junior hockey development for a lot of high end players.
Lapierre, in his Q team, will be a leader and facing an every day challenge to perform as one.
He has played very little hickey in the last 3 years due o injuries and he needs all the playing he can have.
Right now he is deprived of that a plus his team is deprived of a leader....
We need this guy now for the Titan and obviously Laviolette does not need him this season.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I hate to say this but Lapierre is wasting development precious time in the stands .
TheNHL is depending on junior hockey development for a lot of high end players.
Lapierre, in his Q team, will be a leader and facing an every day challenge to perform as one.
He has played very little hickey in the last 3 years due o injuries and he needs all the playing he can have.
Right now he is deprived of that a plus his team is deprived of a leader....
We need this guy now for the Titan and obviously Laviolette does not need him this season.

I disagree being in Florida with a professional NHL team and his childhood idol in Ovechkin. Won’t hurt his development it can teach him how to be a professional hockey player when he goes back to juniors later this season.

 

[txpd]

I hate to say this but Lapierre is wasting development precious time in the stands .
TheNHL is depending on junior hockey development for a lot of high end players.
Lapierre, in his Q team, will be a leader and facing an every day challenge to perform as one.
He has played very little hickey in the last 3 years due o injuries and he needs all the playing he can have.
Right now he is deprived of that a plus his team is deprived of a leader....
We need this guy now for the Titan and obviously Laviolette does not need him this season.

Need? I would suggest that he remains in fact because they NEED him. They are down TWO NHL centers. They cant send him back and call him back up. He has to stay. The Caps are trying to stretch his time inside his 9 games, I am guessing.

I get that the junior team wants him and needs him, but he isnt going to develop more playing junior games if he is already marginally NHL ready. He learns much more about how to be a professional and the rigors and the responsibility and the difference in the speed of the game by actually being on the team

 

[Hivemind]

They cant send him back and call him back up

Yes they can. It's uncommon, but players can be emergency recalled from juniors

I get that the junior team wants him and needs him, but he isnt going to develop more playing junior games if he is already marginally NHL ready. He learns much more about how to be a professional and the rigors and the responsibility and the difference in the speed of the game by actually being on the team

Disagreed. There's certainly some value to being "exposed" to the locker room, team culture, practice, and trainers... but there's a lot more value in actually playing hockey games. Spending time in the press box or getting 6 minutes a night playing sparse duty in the NHL is only going to go so far. Especially for a player that has missed so much hockey over the past few seasons, getting game action in invaluable. He can be gaining valuable powerplay and top line experience in juniors, playing in offensive situations with the puck on his stick, rather than sitting around as a healthy scratch.

They don't need to send him down today, but it should happen pretty darn soon.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

He does need to play, he’s not wrong there, but I’d use these 9 games sparingly….even stretching them out.


He’s learning invaluable things about being a Pro right now.

 

[twabby]

Let's get those Nick for Norris t-shirts printed ASAP.

 

[twabby]

Meanwhile on the other end, Chara and Dillon are in the Sub-Ristolainen zone, bringing up the rear:

 

[crab]

Meanwhile on the other end, Chara and Dillon are in the Sub-Ristolainen zone, bringing up the rear:

View attachment 476482

But but Chara carried Jensen last year……

Imagine Caps would’ve traded Carlson for assets and signed Dougie like you suggested. One can dream.

 

[twabby]

But but Chara carried Jensen last year……

Imagine Caps would’ve traded Carlson for assets and signed Dougie like you suggested. One can dream.

Nick Jensen took the life-force from Zdeno Chara and reduced him to a mere husk, which is what you are seeing on the Isle this year.

 

[895]

What happened to A Pie?

 

[HecticGlow]

The one thing to keep in mind is these metrics are not player-specific, but player-within-a-system-and-team specific. They brought Jensen in because they loved his fancy stats and skating in Detroit, only to find he wasn’t particularly good under TR’s system. Which isn’t surprising, given TR’s system was considered too confusing, and Jensen didn’t benefit from much stability in role or partner during that year and a half. John Carlson, on the other hand, played well in terms of production, but poorly defensively.

Laviolette’s system seems a much more natural fit for guys like Jensen, Orlov and TVR, and that fit means we’re seeing good results for Jensen. I suspect there’s a good chance Dillon and Chara’s stats would be improved if they were still on the Caps, and Jensen’s likely be worse on an underperforming team like Vegas, Winnipeg or Vancouver.

Taking the fancy stats of player X on Team A and supposing they would automatically be mirrored with him playing in Team B doesn’t necessarily work.

 

[txpd]

He does need to play, he’s not wrong there, but I’d use these 9 games sparingly….even stretching them out.


He’s learning invaluable things about being a Pro right now.

He is playing. He just isnt playing every game. If I had to guess, I would say that Backstrom's timeline which they wont tell us has something to do with Lappy's timeline

 

[Hivemind]

What happened to A Pie?

As a Pietrangelo fantasy owner... I've been asking the same question. He's having a god awful start to the year.

 

[txpd]

But but Chara carried Jensen last year……

Imagine Caps would’ve traded Carlson for assets and signed Dougie like you suggested. One can dream.

Chara didnt carry Jensen last year. Come on. NOBODY is saying that.

Both Carlson and Hamilton have 6pts. Carlson will end up with a lot more than Hamilton. Carlson is playing more mins and more pk than Dougie and is Dougie playing partner with a rookie?

 

[895]

As a Pietrangelo fantasy owner... I've been asking the same question. He's having a god awful start to the year.

I was setting you up for "he got eaten"

 

[txpd]

The one thing to keep in mind is these metrics are not player-specific, but player-within-a-system-and-team specific. They brought Jensen in because they loved his fancy stats and skating in Detroit, only to find he wasn’t particularly good under TR’s system. Which isn’t surprising, given TR’s system was considered too confusing, and Jensen didn’t benefit from much stability in role or partner during that year and a half. John Carlson, on the other hand, played well in terms of production, but poorly defensively.

Laviolette’s system seems a much more natural fit for guys like Jensen, Orlov and TVR, and that fit means we’re seeing good results for Jensen. I suspect there’s a good chance Dillon and Chara’s stats would be improved if they were still on the Caps, and Jensen’s likely be worse on an underperforming team like Vegas, Winnipeg or Vancouver.

Taking the fancy stats of player X on Team A and supposing they would automatically be mirrored with him playing in Team B doesn’t necessarily work.

Fancy stats are what they are. The Caps dont throw 57 on the ice in critical defensive or offensive situations. They certainly do use Jensen in primary and critical defensive situations. Their numbers may be similar but you cant compare the two.

As to Jensen, Lavy's active defense system plays directly into the skill set of Jensen. That skill set is very similar to what Reirden was trying to do. Jensen lacked confidence on two points. 1. his puck play past center ice and 2. playing high leverage minutes on a winning team. What Chara did and McCarthy and Lavy was provide Jensen with the confidence to let his skills work.

 

[txpd]

looks like Dowd is back in.

 

[tenken00]

Let's get those Nick for Norris t-shirts printed ASAP.

 

[HecticGlow]

Fancy stats are what they are. The Caps dont throw 57 on the ice in critical defensive or offensive situations. They certainly do use Jensen in primary and critical defensive situations. Their numbers may be similar but you cant compare the two.

Umm, where am I comparing them? I’m saying you can’t isolate any player’s stats - fancy or otherwise - from the setting, scheme and circumstances in which they play. Jensen was playing well from pretty much game 1 under Laviolette, while finding himself a frequent healthy scratch under Reirden towards the end. You’re right that his confidence was no doubt knocked, but he’s also playing today a style his coach wants that also at some level matches his skill set and instincts. At no point did I suggest he was interchangeable with another d-man — I’m arguing his strong play (or TVR’s) might not be automatically replicated on another team with another partner and coach.

Fancy stats too regularly make little or no recognition of coaching impact, which is highly unfortunate.

 

[txpd]

Umm, where am I comparing them?.

Not you. The stats page. I think we had a stats page posted recently that showed McMichael was the best forward on the team or something.

Not you.

 

[twabby]

The one thing to keep in mind is these metrics are not player-specific, but player-within-a-system-and-team specific. They brought Jensen in because they loved his fancy stats and skating in Detroit, only to find he wasn’t particularly good under TR’s system. Which isn’t surprising, given TR’s system was considered too confusing, and Jensen didn’t benefit from much stability in role or partner during that year and a half. John Carlson, on the other hand, played well in terms of production, but poorly defensively.

Laviolette’s system seems a much more natural fit for guys like Jensen, Orlov and TVR, and that fit means we’re seeing good results for Jensen. I suspect there’s a good chance Dillon and Chara’s stats would be improved if they were still on the Caps, and Jensen’s likely be worse on an underperforming team like Vegas, Winnipeg or Vancouver.

Taking the fancy stats of player X on Team A and supposing they would automatically be mirrored with him playing in Team B doesn’t necessarily work.

Of course. They are on new teams and it's not crazy to see them struggling in new systems.

But these numbers do suggest to me, at least, that Jensen's and especially TVR's minutes were woefully mismanaged last year. It's a tough sell convincing me that TVR shouldn't have been in the lineup over at least 3 players who were regulars last year (Chara, Dillon, and Schultz), and it's a tough sell convincing me that Jensen couldn't handle top 4 minutes last year over Dillon and Schultz.

I like what Laviolette has done system-wise on defense, but his personnel decisions need to be better this year. So far so good I suppose, but there are going to be ups and downs and I hope Laviolette responds to them in the best way possible.

 

[cbtitan]

looks like Dowd is back in.

Does that mean that he will replace Lapierre as 4th line centerman?

 

[twabby]

Fancy stats too regularly make little or no recognition of coaching impact, which is highly unfortunate.

This isn't exactly true. Indeed, Hockeyviz has coaching impacts specifically as part of their model:

Model: Magnus 5 (EV)

Spoiler: Coaching impact on ES shot rates

Coach Impact


Since coaches change and players change teams, and players do not play in every score state equally, not every player is affected by coaching systems the same amount. That said, there are only around thirty-five or forty head coaches in the league each year, so the distribution of coaching effects on players is lumpier.
The above shows the impact on players due to coaches, both the general terms, the score terms, and the shell terms, as appropriate. To see the "overall" coach terms specifically, I've condensed them here:



The "shell" terms, which are applied additionally for teams tied or leading by one or two in the the third period, are as follows:



As experience watching suggests, most coaches/players respond to late high-leverage situations by playing worse, especially worse defensively.

To get some notion of "total" coach impact for each coach, I form the weighted sum of the overall system term with 0.2 times the "shell" term, since approximately 20% of the game is played in these states. This "synthetic" coach impact is as follows:



Interestingly (to me) there don't appear to be very many simply "good" coaching systems, and even fewer plainly "bad" systems. Instead the league's coaching systems seem to be slightly squeezed along the "dull-fun" axis, with some coaches preferring negative styles (Kruger, Tortorella), and others more chance-trading systems (Brind'Amour, Green, Boughner).

Micah concludes that beyond normal deployment choices such as zone starts, teammates, and competition, coaching systems themselves have huge impacts on players' on-ice results:

Spoiler: Relative impacts of various attributes on on-ice results

 

[txpd]

Does that mean that he will replace Lapierre as 4th line centerman?

Hagelin Dowd Hathaway is more of an old school 3rd line than a 4th line. They play more than the 3rd line. McMichael and Lapierre were sharing line rushes with Sheary and Leason and so, you can take from that one of them is playing. Its hard to know which one.