Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Regular Season Part 1

[Hivemind]

Vanecek's even strenth SV% is .933. I couldnt find his regulation SV% I would guess that is in the same neighborhood. Take the 2 overtimes off his sheet and he looks just fine. We have all seen how awful the team has looked 3 on 3, so lets not dump that result in Vanecek's lap. He had the one game where he gave up 3 and got pulled. I dont know anyone here that didnt think the team in front of him wasn't stinking up the show that day.

Vanecek's even strength SV% is .927, not .933. That still sounds impressive, until you realize it's tied with Samuel Montembeault for 32nd in the NHL right now. For context, Craig Anderson has a .936 EV SV% for Buffalo right now. Carter Hart is saving .946% of even strength shots in Philly. Jacob Markstrom leads all regular starters with a .968 sv% for Calgary so far.

VV started the season with three strong games. He's followed that up with three mediocre-to-poor games. Playing the "take away all the bad things he did and he looks just fine" card applies to every player in the game.

 

[g00n]

Vanecek's even strength SV% is .927, not .933. That still sounds impressive, until you realize it's tied with Samuel Montembeault for 32nd in the NHL right now. For context, Craig Anderson has a .936 EV SV% for Buffalo right now. Carter Hart is saving .946% of even strength shots in Philly. Jacob Markstrom leads all regular starters with a .968 sv% for Calgary so far.

VV started the season with three strong games. He's followed that up with three mediocre-to-poor games. Playing the "take away all the bad things he did and he looks just fine" card applies to every player in the game.

STAT ABUSE!

Your ranking is based on every single goaltender who's played a game this year, including one-off performances by nobodies.

If you look at netminders with at least 6 games like VV he's T-11th in the NHL. What's more he's only fractionally behind all the goalies up to about 6th place.

A little more impressive ranking, and roll call of competition on that list, to say the least.

It's clear from that chart that PP Sv% is what's dragging him down, and some of that is likely on the PK itself.

 

[g00n]

Someone quote that so the human ignore list can see it

 

[twabby]

The real stat abuse is not using goals saved above expected, or fenwick save percentage above expected!

 

[txpd]

View attachment 476137

STAT ABUSE!

Your ranking is based on every single goaltender who's played a game this year, including one-off performances by nobodies.

If you look at netminders with at least 6 games like VV he's T-11th in the NHL. What's more he's only fractionally behind all the goalies up to about 6th place.

View attachment 476138


A little more impressive ranking, and roll call of competition on that list, to say the least.

It's clear from that chart that PP Sv% is what's dragging him down, and some of that is likely on the PK itself.

And, yes. The Caps have replaced their entire left side defense lineup on the PK with a rookie, a player that was scratched most of last season and a defenseman that has never been a primary penalty killer in nearly 600 NHL games. You would think there would be some growing pains at least, unless you believe that PK doesnt require special skills that are sharpened by experience and that anyone can do it.

Its interesting to note how the whipping boy game works. The load whining and attacks against the Caps power play and the assistant coach in charge is constant for years now and often harsh. Complaints about the pk are rare and without passion while the name of the coach in charge is never used. Who is it anyway?

 

[twabby]

But the real real stat abuse is thinking these numbers mean anything for predicting who will actually be good in the future!

 

[Hivemind]

And, yes. The Caps have replaced their entire left side defense lineup on the PK with a rookie, a player that was scratched most of last season and a defenseman that has never been a primary penalty killer in nearly 600 NHL games. You would think there would be some growing pains at least, unless you believe that PK doesnt require special skills that are sharpened by experience and that anyone can do it.

Its interesting to note how the whipping boy game works. The load whining and attacks against the Caps power play and the assistant coach in charge is constant for years now and often harsh. Complaints about the pk are rare and without passion while the name of the coach in charge is never used. Who is it anyway?

Caps Net PK is ranked 14th in the league. Not great, but not the end of the world.

Caps Net PP is ranked 25th in the league. Pretty darn bad. Doubly so when you consider that the PP features the greatest goal scorer of this generation. This is no such superlative talent on the PK unit.

I’m more supportive of Forsythe than many around here, but to draw the comparison you are is asinine. Forsythe has been around forever, of course people are familiar with him and his responsibility. Moreover, the expectations for the Caps PP are justifiably higher than they are for Arniel’s PK unit.

 

[Hivemind]

The real stat abuse is not using goals saved above expected, or fenwick save percentage above expected!

I was using the same terms as txpd, since as soon as you swap it up on him he cries out about “actual goals.”

Or was someone else claiming stat abuse?

 

[kicksavedave]

Good article comparing the fancy stats for the two rookie forwards, CMM and Jimi. Hint, one of them is better than the other, fancy wise.

Assessing Connor McMichael And Hendrix Lapierre Via Possession Metrics

Spoiler: Fancy Stat Alert, with a big chart.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I see a lot of posts about people (and me) being reactionary to three straight poor showings by Vitek but honestly, how many teams do the Caps play where you genuinely think, "We've clearly got the edge tonight in net." If we're only talking about #1s so not including guys like DeSmith, Martin Jones, and Bernier, (or Sammy), VV is the 6th or 7th best starter in the Metro. He's clearly behind Shesterkin, Sorokin, Merzlikins, Freddy Anderson, and Blackwood. He's competing with Jarry and Hart for the 6th-8th spot.

They have a fine record right now but the point is to contend for a Cup and leaky goaltending and no scoring depth are not a combination for going very far.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Also, I hate the PP. I don't understand why we can't feature two guys with terrific one-timers. Put Mantha opposite Ovi with Carlson or Orlov up top so there are two threats and teams can't just cheat to Ovechkin. I don't want to hear about it taking opportunities away from Ovi because that's a lazy reason not to do something, and it's not even accurate. The Lightning put Stamkos and Kucherov in the same spot on opposite sides of the rink with Hedman up top and they're lethal. Teams can't cheat or they leave the crease open and it opens up a ton of cross-ice seam passes. You have a cannon of a shot in Mantha and they're completely misusing him.

 

[twabby]

I was using the same terms as txpd, since as soon as you swap it up on him he cries out about “actual goals.”

Or was someone else claiming stat abuse?

@g00n was claiming stat abuse on your part:

View attachment 476137

STAT ABUSE!

Your ranking is based on every single goaltender who's played a game this year, including one-off performances by nobodies.

If you look at netminders with at least 6 games like VV he's T-11th in the NHL. What's more he's only fractionally behind all the goalies up to about 6th place.

View attachment 476138


A little more impressive ranking, and roll call of competition on that list, to say the least.

It's clear from that chart that PP Sv% is what's dragging him down, and some of that is likely on the PK itself.

 

[txpd]

Also, I hate the PP. I don't understand why we can't feature two guys with terrific one-timers. Put Mantha opposite Ovi.

I think a lot of us want to see Mantha's one timer, but there is one primary problem with that you have to be willing to accept. The player on that half wall controls the play. It all runs thru him. You can see how important that spot is to the success of the force by noting how much better Backstrom is at it than Kuzy when Kuzy is a great puck handler or note how much worse the 2nd unit is with a regular player in the spot. They lose possession so much easier.

You dont get the puck to Ovechkin or the the bumper shooter without quick, correct decisions and on the tape passing from that guy. Without that the whole thing grinds to a halt. You cant put Mantha in that spot as a matter of course. The only thing that makes sense is for Mantha to be the corner guy and occasionally rotate with the half wall guy into one timer position and then get the shot right away. At the same time, if you do that with regularity the pk sees it coming easily and takes it away.

You may want to do it anyway, but I am guessing that is why they dont do it. The Caps have 3 legit one time shots that come from passes off the left. Ov, Tj and Carlson. Wilson isnt as good as TJ at least for now. If you put Mantha in that spot you might just be taking Ov away yourself.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

They probably don’t win a Cup making panic moves either….

 

[twabby]

It's crazy to draw any conclusions from anything this season when it comes to goaltending. Each goaltender has only played a handful of games each, with Samsonov having the edge in terms of all-situations save percentage above expected.

Over their careers, Samsonov is almost exactly an average goalie: -0.3 goals saved above expected. Vanecek is slightly worse: -4.71 goals saved above expected.

Andrei Vasilevskiy is only at +3.82 goals saved above expected over the past 3 seasons, for reference. He's been good I guess, but how good? He had some good playoff runs, but he also had several duds, including when Columbus swept them a few years ago. And he wasn't great against Washington in 2018. Good luck to anyone predicting with certainty that he'll be good again this postseason.

Braden Holtby has bounced wildly from great to bad to good to awful to decent. There's really no reason to suspect Vasilevskiy won't follow the same type of trajectory as Holtby.

Basically my point is that aside from generational players like Hasek or Lundqvist, it's almost impossible to find a goaltender who will be reliably good.

Why Goaltending is Basically Random and Will Always Make You Look Stupid (In 5 Graphs)

 

[Langway]

If you put Mantha in that spot you might just be taking Ov away yourself.

That's pretty overblown. The ratio of passes from Carlson compared to Kuznetsov or Backstrom is pretty big. The angle is rarely there for that sort of longer seam pass across at least one, if not two, forwards. Mantha is a good enough passer to get it back to Carlson at least and then ideally I think Kuznetsov down low could become more problematic for either getting tips from Mantha or that low forward passing to Ovechkin if he decides to cheat down.

It's really not that fragile a process. It only becomes fragile when it becomes stale and often their formulaic approach is firmly in that territory. It's not easy. They've gotten so much mileage off of pure finishing ability but eventually they're bound to be taught that they have to work just as hard with the man advantage. That's my more fundamental issue with Forsythe's approach. It's only main incorporation of player movement is either entirely formulaic or just improvised by the players randomly. They surely have to own their instincts but they also as a feature don't put much emphasis on movement and it makes them much easier to defend.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I think a lot of us want to see Mantha's one timer, but there is one primary problem with that you have to be willing to accept. The player on that half wall controls the play. It all runs thru him. You can see how important that spot is to the success of the force by noting how much better Backstrom is at it than Kuzy when Kuzy is a great puck handler or note how much worse the 2nd unit is with a regular player in the spot. They lose possession so much easier.

You dont get the puck to Ovechkin or the the bumper shooter without quick, correct decisions and on the tape passing from that guy. Without that the whole thing grinds to a halt. You cant put Mantha in that spot as a matter of course. The only thing that makes sense is for Mantha to be the corner guy and occasionally rotate with the half wall guy into one timer position and then get the shot right away. At the same time, if you do that with regularity the pk sees it coming easily and takes it away.

You may want to do it anyway, but I am guessing that is why they dont do it. The Caps have 3 legit one time shots that come from passes off the left. Ov, Tj and Carlson. Wilson isnt as good as TJ at least for now. If you put Mantha in that spot you might just be taking Ov away yourself.

The player on the half wall controls the play in their current set up, yes, but there's no rule that says the QB of the PP has to be stapled to the half wall. They've done it that way because Forsythe is seemingly incapable or too stubborn to make necessary changes but it doesn't have to be that way.

Malkin, not Crosby, plays mainly at the half wall so he can be set up for one timers. Sid moves around depending on the set they're running. Point does a lot of the work directing the PP while Kucherov and Stamkos are on the half walls.

Saying we have to do things one way and that there's no room to deviate from defined roles is a really odd way of looking at things, I think.

 

[Calicaps]

The player on the half wall controls the play in their current set up, yes, but there's no rule that says the QB of the PP has to be stapled to the half wall. They've done it that way because Forsythe is seemingly incapable or too stubborn to make necessary changes but it doesn't have to be that way.

Malkin, not Crosby, plays mainly at the half wall so he can be set up for one timers. Sid moves around depending on the set they're running. Point does a lot of the work directing the PP while Kucherov and Stamkos are on the half walls.

Saying we have to do things one way and that there's no room to deviate from defined roles is a really odd way of looking at things, I think.

I agree. I'd actually like them to move to having 2 formations they can deploy; the current one and another one such as you describe with the 2 one-timer options. That could allow them to keep PKs guessing as to which system they'll see on any given PP. But more than anything, they need more movement. The current structure might work if they didn't just all stand so damn still. It's bizarre.

 

[txpd]

That's pretty overblown. The ratio of passes from Carlson compared to Kuznetsov or Backstrom is pretty big..

This is a long conversation. I didnt mean that the half wall guy passes directly to Ovechkin. His passes are to the corner or to the point. When the pk works to take away either of those two passes, the seam does open. My point is that reading the right option to the point or the corner and then making the pass correctly, speed wise and on the tape so that person can then move it with one touch is where the importance is. See what I am saying?

Kuzy is a + passer and Backstrom is a ++ passer. Carlson is a + passer. Ovechkin and Oshie are ++ one time shooters. The play starts with that pass off the half wall. If its done average, its not good enough to open up a shooting option. Thats my point.

 

[txpd]

The player on the half wall controls the play in their current set up, yes, but there's no rule that says the QB of the PP has to be stapled to the half wall. They've done it that way because Forsythe is seemingly incapable or too stubborn to make necessary changes but it doesn't have to be that way.

Malkin, not Crosby, plays mainly at the half wall so he can be set up for one timers. Sid moves around depending on the set they're running. Point does a lot of the work directing the PP while Kucherov and Stamkos are on the half walls.

Saying we have to do things one way and that there's no room to deviate from defined roles is a really odd way of looking at things, I think.

It depends on what your priorities are. Doesnt it? Malkin shoots the one timer but he is not the 1st shooting option. From what i remember is that the Pens play a 1-3-1 with a bumper guy AND a crease screener. They dont use the guy in the corner. Malkin and Crosby alternate which half wall they are on. So, the 3 guys in the center stay and the two guys on the always circle. Ovechkin on the right wing gives the pk what it wants which is Ov out of shooting position.

I get your frustration but last season the pp was #3. They have a roster designed for a two left shot passer, 3 right shot shooter power play. The goal Sheary scored last night was an alternate set play which you guys have all been screaming for but since it was Sheary scoring it, we wont talk about it.

I always ask this and its the next question. If you want the pp to be run other than the left half wall, where would you do it and by who? Who and were are your shooting options? Do you want a one time/beat the moving goalies pp or do you want to change to a traffic/screen/deflection pp?

 

[g00n]

But the real real stat abuse is thinking these numbers mean anything for predicting who will actually be good in the future!

What are you going on about? Nobody's extrapolating anything from the stats other than what they say.

 

[Langway]

If its done average, its not good enough to open up a shooting option. Thats my point.

Mantha needs to be utilized more, though, no? More prominent PP usage could be what could kickstarts him toward more 5-on-5 impact. Of course, Sheary Tries Hard and that's fantastic. Yet also short-sighted.

When it comes to running from the hallwall there's no reason why Mantha couldn't rotate in as needed. In the past we'd see 19 and 92 rotate. It's well within their wheelhouse. It's mainly that the status quo is comfortable and what Laviolette values is also predictably fairly one-dimensional.

 

[twabby]

What are you going on about? Nobody's extrapolating anything from the stats other than what they say.

Excellent! Then there’s nothing to worry about!

 

[pman25]

why did they release the cool retro jersey and then said actually, we are just gonna stick with this Big W instead...

 

[txpd]

Mantha needs to be utilized more, though, no? More prominent PP usage could be what could kickstarts him toward more 5-on-5 impact. Of course, Sheary Tries Hard and that's fantastic. Yet also short-sighted.

When it comes to running from the hallwall there's no reason why Mantha couldn't rotate in as needed. In the past we'd see 19 and 92 rotate. It's well within their wheelhouse. It's mainly that the status quo is comfortable and what Laviolette values is also predictably fairly one-dimensional.

Yes, I think Mantha needs to be there more to shoot. I said this initially and I said that could be done by rotating out of the corner and swapping with the half wall guy. I said all that. Yes. Hey, we agree.

The comment was, "I dont understand why....". I said that I wanted to see more Mantha one timers and said that could done rotating with the half wall guy into one timer position. I then said a reason not to do this is.....