Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Off-Season Pt. 3

[twabby]

Updated JFresh standings model now that the Islanders made a bunch of their signings official today. Washington is on the outside looking in, though certainly within the margin of error.

He's a bit higher on the Flyers and maybe a bit lower on the C*pitals than the sportsbook that I posted yesterday, but both agree on an extremely tight division with Washington settling in on the lower end of the pack (but again, well within the margin of error).

 

[Carlzner]

I’m not crazy high on the Caps this year or anything but if there’s one thing we know they can do, it’s win in the regular season.

There’s an endless argument on whether they’re a true cup contender or if they’ll go deep in the playoffs but you are out to lunch if you think this team is missing the playoffs.

 

[twabby]

I’m not crazy high on the Caps this year or anything but if there’s one thing we know they can do, it’s win in the regular season.

There’s an endless argument on whether they’re a true cup contender or if they’ll go deep in the playoffs but you are out to lunch if you think this team is missing the playoffs.

If they get average or better goaltending I think they'll be in the playoffs, but if they get anything like the goaltending they got last year they are in for a tough season. I think they also need to hope that last year was a fluke in terms of injuries, though I'm not really convinced it was especially when it comes to Carlson and Backstrom.

Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, like Washington, also had some really bad goaltending last season. If they get average goaltending they should be in the playoffs as well. I have a very hard time seeing the Islanders missing the playoffs, and the Hurricanes just finished 3rd in the NHL in standings points so despite a poor offseason from them they are certainly going to be in playoff contention. And the Rangers could still surprise despite shooting themselves in the foot this offseason. And heck, New Jersey should be significantly better this season with the additions of Hamilton and Tatar and growth from Hughes and Hischier. Even if it's not enough to really get NJ into the playoff picture it'll be fewer easy points for Washington which they racked up last year.

I think it's entirely reasonable to have the C*pitals on the outside looking in, especially when it's only by 3 points like the model above is predicting. Looking at the other divisions his projections also seem to make a lot of sense, so I have a hard time saying he is way off with Washington.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I’m not crazy high on the Caps this year or anything but if there’s one thing we know they can do, it’s win in the regular season.

There’s an endless argument on whether they’re a true cup contender or if they’ll go deep in the playoffs but you are out to lunch if you think this team is missing the playoffs.

Makes for a good scary story for the kids!

 

[Calicaps]

I’m not crazy high on the Caps this year or anything but if there’s one thing we know they can do, it’s win in the regular season.

There’s an endless argument on whether they’re a true cup contender or if they’ll go deep in the playoffs but you are out to lunch if you think this team is missing the playoffs.

Making this Caps core (give or take) miss the postseason was Oates' superpower. Absent that...

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

I’m not crazy high on the Caps this year or anything but if there’s one thing we know they can do, it’s win in the regular season.

There’s an endless argument on whether they’re a true cup contender or if they’ll go deep in the playoffs but you are out to lunch if you think this team is missing the playoffs.

We shall find out soon enough. I have a pessimistic outlook for the roster as constructed but the game is played on the ice, not on paper.

 

[um]

Updated JFresh standings model now that the Islanders made a bunch of their signings official today. Washington is on the outside looking in, though certainly within the margin of error.

He's a bit higher on the Flyers and maybe a bit lower on the C*pitals than the sportsbook that I posted yesterday, but both agree on an extremely tight division with Washington settling in on the lower end of the pack (but again, well within the margin of error).

The Metro is gonna be a blood bath this year. I can't wait.

 

[Hivemind]

Updated JFresh standings model now that the Islanders made a bunch of their signings official today. Washington is on the outside looking in, though certainly within the margin of error.

He's a bit higher on the Flyers and maybe a bit lower on the C*pitals than the sportsbook that I posted yesterday, but both agree on an extremely tight division with Washington settling in on the lower end of the pack (but again, well within the margin of error).

My takeaway isn't so much the order of the teams, it's that there's only 7 points separating the division winner and 7th place in the division. This lines up pretty well with what folks here have been saying, as well as analysts and prognosticators elsewhere. The Metropolitan is up for grabs. It's basically anyone's game, and some pretty decent teams are going to be left outside of the playoffs. After injuries and underperformance and everything else that happens in the real season is factored in I expect the separation to be more than JFresh's model, but not a ton. I could easily see only 10 or 12 points separating winning the Metro and missing the playoffs entirely.

 

[searle]

May have already been discussed but José Théodore was on spittin Chiclets recently, sounded like the caps were an absolute shit show under Boudreau, he told a story about Semin (I think it was) answering phone calls during PP meetings on game day and having 30 second conversations.

Pretty mad that they got that many regular season points if things were that bad, and begs the question of how many cups they'd have won if the culture wasn't in the toilet.

 

[Hivemind]

They could also have won more Cups if they had better goaltending than Jose ThreeOrMore

 

[trick9]

Am i missing something or hasn't it been clear for a decade that the players ran the club under Boudreau?

Also on that story about Semin... is someone actually surprised? I wouldn't be surprised if he was answering his phone during the games.

 

[twabby]

My takeaway isn't so much the order of the teams, it's that there's only 7 points separating the division winner and 7th place in the division. This lines up pretty well with what folks here have been saying, as well as analysts and prognosticators elsewhere. The Metropolitan is up for grabs. It's basically anyone's game, and some pretty decent teams are going to be left outside of the playoffs. After injuries and underperformance and everything else that happens in the real season is factored in I expect the separation to be more than JFresh's model, but not a ton. I could easily see only 10 or 12 points separating winning the Metro and missing the playoffs entirely.

Yeah I think my big takeaway is that it's arrogant to think that the C*pitals as constructed will just win the division again and coast into the playoffs because they win the division and coast into the playoffs a lot. I hope there's urgency to improve the roster not only because their playoff performances have been cruddy recently, but also because just getting into the playoffs is going to be difficult.

 

[Rayquaza64]

making the playoffs and losing in the first round again might be the worst case scenario for the end of this season

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Arrogance, confidence…..nobody expects to waltz to a division title.

Few expect to miss entirely.

 

[Capitals40]

Updated JFresh standings model now that the Islanders made a bunch of their signings official today. Washington is on the outside looking in, though certainly within the margin of error.

He's a bit higher on the Flyers and maybe a bit lower on the C*pitals than the sportsbook that I posted yesterday, but both agree on an extremely tight division with Washington settling in on the lower end of the pack (but again, well within the margin of error).

ESPN can do their Wheel of Destiny for the Metro division.

 

[pman25]

I think we win the Division or come in 5th.

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

I think if the roster today is the roster we see for most of the season, it’s going to be a long and painful one. Dishing out those hot takes.

 

[Roshi]

making the playoffs and losing in the first round again might be the worst case scenario for the end of this season

Im not sure how thats worse than missing the playoffs closely by a point or three.

 

[twabby]

Im not sure how thats worse than missing the playoffs closely by a point or three.

I think it depends how the team would react to getting bounced in the first round again. If they act with urgency and address the true needs of the team then I'd rather they make the playoffs even if it means a quick exit. However, if they make the playoffs there is a decent chance that no major changes are made even if they get humiliated in the first round and clear deficiencies are present. Indeed this is what happened after last season, where the team is pretty much unchanged going into next year despite Boston stomping the Capitals in 5 games. (and a year after the Islanders stomped the Capitals in 5 games)

Missing the playoffs on the other hand would likely necessitate some big changes that some, including me, think are necessary if they want to compete in the final years of Ovechkin's career in Washington.

 

[Rayquaza64]

Im not sure how thats worse than missing the playoffs closely by a point or three.

we get a worse pick by making the playoffs and if we lose round 1 *again* did we really accomplish anything? missing or advancing further shows what direction this team needs to go in. another shitty first round exit brings us right back to square one.

 

[Roshi]

Yeah, i think i heard those same things said back when going in for punch of seasons after getting bumped out in 1st or 2nd round. 17-18 included.

Why stop there. Why not rather lose every game in the season if we dont win the cup. We might get 1st overall. Wow.

sure it sucks to lose in 1st round. It sucks to lose in reg season or 2nd round aswell. Losing generally sucks.

”if we get stomped again”. It doesnt work like that. We either make it to playoffs or not. Ill rather make it.

 

[um]

They could also have won more Cups if they had better goaltending than Jose ThreeOrMore

Hard to blame Jose considering how bad our D was

what keeps me up at night is no Cups in 2016 and 2017.

 

[txpd]

Updated JFresh standings model now that the Islanders made a bunch of their signings official today. Washington is on the outside looking in, though certainly within the margin of error.

He's a bit higher on the Flyers and maybe a bit lower on the C*pitals than the sportsbook that I posted yesterday, but both agree on an extremely tight division with Washington settling in on the lower end of the pack (but again, well within the margin of error).

WAR and hockey are not friends. I wouldnt trust it. But sure, lets go with Philly

 

[txpd]

I think it depends how the team would react to getting bounced in the first round again. If they act with urgency and address the true needs of the team then I'd rather they make the playoffs even if it means a quick exit. However, if they make the playoffs there is a decent chance that no major changes are made even if they get humiliated in the first round and clear deficiencies are present. Indeed this is what happened after last season, where the team is pretty much unchanged going into next year despite Boston stomping the Capitals in 5 games. (and a year after the Islanders stomped the Capitals in 5 games)

Missing the playoffs on the other hand would likely necessitate some big changes that some, including me, think are necessary if they want to compete in the final years of Ovechkin's career in Washington.

Funny how 5 overtime games includin double overtime can qualify as getting stomped. Yes, I know that only the first 3 games were overtime but my point stands. Who were the goalies in those games again? Refresh me.

This great. Signing Backstrom and Ovechkin were mistakes eh? Carlson too. Oshie too. Should have blown it up.

I guess I need to take another week break.

 

[twabby]

Funny how 5 overtime games includin double overtime can qualify as getting stomped. Yes, I know that only the first 3 games were overtime but my point stands. Who were the goalies in those games again? Refresh me.

This great. Signing Backstrom and Ovechkin were mistakes eh? Carlson too. Oshie too. Should have blown it up.

I guess I need to take another week break.

They were manhandled at 5v5 pretty consistently throughout the series, as they have been for the past 3 postseasons (less so against CAR, but still outplayed by quite a bit). It’s not a good trend.

I’ve said it before that Ovechkin and Backstrom are here to stay and should be. Them retiring as C*pitals is more important to me than optimizing the lineup. However yes it’s hard to ignore Carlson being extremely poor in the past 3 postseasons. It’s hard for any team to win when their #1 D plays like a replacement level player, and I’m not confident in his level of play going forward.

I’m not suggesting blowing it up. I’ve already made my desires known so I won’t rehash the specifics, but yes targeted high-impact upgrades at the cost of mortgaging the future should be on the table given what Ovechkin means to this franchise and the current deficiencies on the roster. I can’t comment on exactly what BMac tried to swing this offseason since I don’t know what he tried, but I would imagine his level of urgency would have been higher if they had missed the playoffs last year, for instance. But perhaps I am wrong!