Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Off-Season Pt. 2

[Ridley Simon]

Ovechkin is the last player that should take a discount on this franchise.

Wrong way of looking at it. He’s taking a discount to continue to help his future (his legacy). All he truly should want to do is find ways to get another Cup (s), and find ways to help him get to 895

 

[Ridley Simon]

So we return to the Metropolitan Division this season and the following teams:
Carolina
Columbus
New Jersey
Islanders
Rangers
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh

I have to say I'm not that optimistic for the coming season. I believe this team is trending downwards and may be better then only Columbus, New Jersey and possibly Philadelphia. I believe the Islanders will win the Division, followed by the Canes, Rangers and Penguins. We may not make the playoffs (but the window), which may be a good thing as we approach the TDL we'll be sellers for once and we'll also have something to look forward to in the first 90 minutes of next year's draft.

I see it a little differently.

Canes/Isles are mostly locks for the Loffs

Devils/BJ’s mostly locks to miss.

the remaining 4 will compete for the other 2/3 slots. Caps have as good a chance as any. Plus any of those 4 could challenge Canes/Isles for the Div title.

 

[txpd]

If Holtby does get bought out, does anybody really think that he's going to be desperate enough to sign a one-year minimum deal, especially if it's to be a backup? That there won't be other teams out there willing to offer more? He's a professional athlete. With an agent (whose job is to maximize his client's earnings.) Dude is going to get the best contract while he can, where he can. And that contract won't come from the Caps.

Desperate? A bought out player has already been paid. Oprik wasn't desperate. He wanted to play in Washington. The agents job is to get the client what the client wants. Holtby has already been in Washington this summer. If bought out, Dude is going to do what he wants to do

 

[twabby]

Plenty of talk about wanting to upgrade Kuznetsov, and fairly so IMO. Aside from last year and his 17-18 postseason his on-ice results have been quite pedestrian to very bad.

But doesn’t this same logic apply to Carlson? How long does Washington rely on John Carlson as their #1D when his only recent good postseason has been 17-18 and his on-ice impact over the past 5 seasons has been far less than what you’d expect out of a 1D? And for every complaint about Kuznetsov being lazy doesn’t that also apply to Carlson? He doesn’t have the same off-ice issues but at what point is it not worth trotting out a guy who actively hurts the team, especially in the postseason? Why has his 5v5 offensive impact gone in the toilet come postseason, and can we realistically expect it to return?

Given the return on the Ristolainen trade you’d have to expect Carlson to return a haul (especially to a team like Toronto or Montreal), including possibly desperately needed forward help. I hope they’ve been shopping him and kicking the tires on Hamilton. It’d be malpractice to actively avoid core turnover.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Fun side bar related to Caps discussions:

In the dull days of the off-season I've really started to think about the difference in hockey interactions depending on the forum you're using:


HFBoards: Typically knowledgable enough about the sport and teams to make uniquely absurd posts.

EX: "I'm going to explain to you all why actually the best player in the last 20 years is not Crosby, McDavid, or Matthews... it's actually Corey Perry."

Cap Friendly: Conscious enough to know the salary cap is a thing, not self aware enough to understand the numbers aren't the only thing that needs to makes sense

EX: "Here is my proposed 2021-22 Maple Leafs, you'll notice I've swapped out our bottom 6 with McDavid, Ovechkin, MacKinnon, and Crosby. It took some retained salary and a few guys taking league minimum but I think it'll work. I did have to give up two 4th round picks though."


Reddit: Enthusiastic, but everyone suckles from the teat of the team PR machine

EX: "Does anyone know Brooks Laich's UFA status? I'm thinking we lock him up long term. Love me some Brooksy!"


Twitter: Opinions are barely anything beyond surface level, posts are typically played out jokes and just blind homerism.

EX: "Crysby sucks, I wouldn't take that Cindy on my team if he he paid us!"


Facebook: Just... the worst

EX: "WHY ARE THEY USING RAINBOW TAPE GOD DAMN IT! THE GAY AGENDA STRIKES AGAIN!"

 

[txpd]

I see it a little differently.

Canes/Isles are mostly locks for the Loffs

Devils/BJ’s mostly locks to miss.

the remaining 4 will compete for the other 2/3 slots. Caps have as good a chance as any. Plus any of those 4 could challenge Canes/Isles for the Div title.

I think its been established that the Caps are a bubble team at best. Or no?

 

[BiPolar Caps]

I see it a little differently.

Canes/Isles are mostly locks for the Loffs

Devils/BJ’s mostly locks to miss.

the remaining 4 will compete for the other 2/3 slots. Caps have as good a chance as any. Plus any of those 4 could challenge Canes/Isles for the Div title.

Rangers were quite competitive against the Capitals this year. They're young and fast, they'll give the Caps fits this year. The Pens and the Caps will battle it out for the fourth spot, but in the end it's Mario's league and we're just playing in it.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Plenty of talk about wanting to upgrade Kuznetsov, and fairly so IMO. Aside from last year and his 17-18 postseason his on-ice results have been quite pedestrian to very bad.

But doesn’t this same logic apply to Carlson? How long does Washington rely on John Carlson as their #1D when his only recent good postseason has been 17-18 and his on-ice impact over the past 5 seasons has been far less than what you’d expect out of a 1D? And for every complaint about Kuznetsov being lazy doesn’t that also apply to Carlson? He doesn’t have the same off-ice issues but at what point is it not worth trotting out a guy who actively hurts the team, especially in the postseason? Why has his 5v5 offensive impact gone in the toilet come postseason, and can we realistically expect it to return?

Given the return on the Ristolainen trade you’d have to expect Carlson to return a haul (especially to a team like Toronto or Montreal), including possibly desperately needed forward help. I hope they’ve been shopping him and kicking the tires on Hamilton. It’d be malpractice to actively avoid core turnover.

Slowest gazelle philosophy.


Kuznetsov plays a more visible role, arguably a more essential one, definitely one with less depth. As a result his ass like qualities are way more apparent and seemingly present. But should he leave I do believe Johnny boys day of scorn will not be far behind. Unfortunately, we always need a whipping boy, I think Carlson will be that guy (somewhat deservedly so). I'd prefer that over when people arbitrarily picked on Jensen.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I think its been established that the Caps are a bubble team at best. Or no?

I don’t see them as a playoff lock. So, whatever people want to call that?

 

[Ridley Simon]

Rangers were quite competitive against the Capitals this year. They're young and fast, they'll give the Caps fits this year. The Pens and the Caps will battle it out for the fourth spot, but in the end it's Mario's league and we're just playing in it.

Meh. One year is one year. Unless it’s Caps vs Boston. Then it’s a little longer

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Rangers were quite competitive against the Capitals this year. They're young and fast, they'll give the Caps fits this year. The Pens and the Caps will battle it out for the fourth spot, but in the end it's Mario's league and we're just playing in it.

Rangers putting all their eggs in the boom or bust for Eichel basket.


Trading Buch and getting nothing in return leaves a massive offensive hole that they're banking on Eichel and their #1 picks being able to fill. Problem is that the Sabres are being very cagey about Eichel's health and the Rangers will likely need to move one of those #1 guys to get him.


The Buch trade looks worse everyday. Like why not use his expiring RFA contract as a pot sweetener in the Eichel deal and maybe save yourself a draft pick.

They have a bunch of playmakers, but outside of Zibenajad they don't really have any goal scorers. To be successful they'll need both Kreider and Zibenajad to play out of their mind. Panarin to have just an amazing season, and pray that Eichel is what he once was (barring having to also give up one of the aforementioned guys in the trade).


I just think too many things need to work for them to actually be a threat.

 

[Misery74]

They didn’t do it to Selanne and Kariya when they joined the Avs for the Cup Run

I think Ovy could do a 1yr deal. Next year we have some decent salary coming off the books, so will have more flexibility. Kempny and Schultz come off the books. 6.5m in freedom.

so Ovy takes 1yr 5m. Gives them 3m to sign Sammy and wiggle room. And IF they can then trade salary from a position of strength (hockey trades), then so be it.

They need to purge players. BMac should have seen this coming. Ovechkin should sign his deal, then get rid of the deadweight.

 

[txpd]

Plenty of talk about wanting to upgrade Kuznetsov, and fairly so IMO. Aside from last year and his 17-18 postseason his on-ice results have been quite pedestrian to very bad.

But doesn’t this same logic apply to Carlson? How long does Washington rely on John Carlson as their #1D when his only recent good postseason has been 17-18 and his on-ice impact over the past 5 seasons has been far less than what you’d expect out of a 1D? And for every complaint about Kuznetsov being lazy doesn’t that also apply to Carlson? He doesn’t have the same off-ice issues but at what point is it not worth trotting out a guy who actively hurts the team, especially in the postseason? Why has his 5v5 offensive impact gone in the toilet come postseason, and can we realistically expect it to return?

Given the return on the Ristolainen trade you’d have to expect Carlson to return a haul (especially to a team like Toronto or Montreal), including possibly desperately needed forward help. I hope they’ve been shopping him and kicking the tires on Hamilton. It’d be malpractice to actively avoid core turnover.

In his last 5 post seasons, Carlson is 4th in scoring on the team. He leads the team in assists. He has outscored the next highest defenseman by 150pts. In that period in the regular Carlson is 9th in the league in overall scoring. He outscored all defensemen by nearly 30pts. In the playoffs he was 5th among defensemen with a better points per game than all the players above him. In the last 3 years he was 13th in playoff defense scoring with every player in the top 10 player twice or more the number of games. In the regular over those 3 years he lead with a 30pt point advantage over #2.

You are comparing this to Kuzy how? In the regular over those 3 years Carlson has outscored him by nearly 50pts. In playoffs Carlson leads the team in scoring which includes Kuznetsov.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Plenty of talk about wanting to upgrade Kuznetsov, and fairly so IMO. Aside from last year and his 17-18 postseason his on-ice results have been quite pedestrian to very bad.

But doesn’t this same logic apply to Carlson? How long does Washington rely on John Carlson as their #1D when his only recent good postseason has been 17-18 and his on-ice impact over the past 5 seasons has been far less than what you’d expect out of a 1D? And for every complaint about Kuznetsov being lazy doesn’t that also apply to Carlson? He doesn’t have the same off-ice issues but at what point is it not worth trotting out a guy who actively hurts the team, especially in the postseason? Why has his 5v5 offensive impact gone in the toilet come postseason, and can we realistically expect it to return?

Given the return on the Ristolainen trade you’d have to expect Carlson to return a haul (especially to a team like Toronto or Montreal), including possibly desperately needed forward help. I hope they’ve been shopping him and kicking the tires on Hamilton. It’d be malpractice to actively avoid core turnover.

I've had the same thoughts about Carlson. No matter what the item is, you always want to sell high and not low. Carlson would definitely be an attractive asset to the Devils ( the home grown product returning and all that). I'd move Carlson for Subban (we'd have to take back such a contract that's only for next season) with the Devils retaining a third of Subbans 9 mil salary. Caps will also get the Devils first round picks in 2022 and 2023. If the Devils balk at the price, Capitals will settle for their first round pick in one of those years as well as their second round picks in both of those years. I don't think the Devils will be any good in the next two years so these picks should be in the top 10 for the first round and 32-42 in the second round in what's described as deep draft years.

Subban is a RD that will replace Carlson on the PP. He'll be setting up Ovie on his one timers for next year. Sadly for the next few years this fan base is going to have to be content with the Ovie watch as far as goal scoring and not the standings.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Rangers putting all their eggs in the boom or bust for Eichel basket.


Trading Buch and getting nothing in return leaves a massive offensive hole that they're banking on Eichel and their #1 picks being able to fill. Problem is that the Sabres are being very cagey about Eichel's health and the Rangers will likely need to move one of those #1 guys to get him.


The Buch trade looks worse everyday. Like why not use his expiring RFA contract as a pot sweetener in the Eichel deal and maybe save yourself a draft pick.

They have a bunch of playmakers, but outside of Zibenajad they don't really have any goal scorers. To be successful they'll need both Kreider and Zibenajad to play out of their mind. Panarin to have just an amazing season, and pray that Eichel is what he once was (barring having to also give up one of the aforementioned guys in the trade).


I just think too many things need to work for them to actually be a threat.

The Buch trade was defintely a head scratcher for sure. But don't forget they have Adam Fox on the blue line and Gallant behind the bench now plus almost 22 million in cap space. They're not done if they have all that cap space. We'll see how the Eichel situation unfolds and I'm still not sure what the impact of his injury may be with his playing career. Neck surgery, what's the recovery time on that and all? Still if the Rangers offered say Lafreniere along with their first round picks in 22 and 23, I don't think many teams could match that or take on Eichel's salary. Buffalo needs to be careful and not overplay their hand on this one.

 

[twabby]

I've had the same thoughts about Carlson. No matter what the item is, you always want to sell high and not low. Carlson would definitely be an attractive asset to the Devils ( the home grown product returning and all that). I'd move Carlson for Subban (we'd have to take back such a contract that's only for next season) with the Devils retaining a third of Subbans 9 mil salary. Caps will also get the Devils first round picks in 2022 and 2023. If the Devils balk at the price, Capitals will settle for their first round pick in one of those years as well as their second round picks in both of those years. I don't think the Devils will be any good in the next two years so these picks should be in the top 10 for the first round and 32-42 in the second round in what's described as deep draft years.

Subban is a RD that will replace Carlson on the PP. He'll be setting up Ovie on his one timers for next year. Sadly for the next few years this fan base is going to have to be content with the Ovie watch as far as goal scoring and not the standings.

I wouldn’t want Subban back because with an asset like Carlson you don’t need to take a neutral or negative asset like that. I’d target a legit 1C or prime futures, and then try like hell to sign Hamilton as a UFA. He’s like Carlson but better in every way.

I don’t really care about Carlson’s point totals because it hasn’t really translated to the postseason at 5v5. I don’t care how many cheap assists he gets on the PP, I think plenty of other players could do so without the negative defensive impact Carlson has at 5v5 (along with his 5v5 offense disappearing in the postseason).

I’m with you: sell high. Is Carlson really the guy to anchor the backend? The numbers certainly don’t support it. Playdriving defensemen like Orlov and even Jensen have faired much better the past few postseasons. Hamilton to me is a guy who can produce like Carlson and drive play come postseason time. Offer him a lot of money, $10 million if that’s what it takes. He’s likely to be worth it.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Plenty of talk about wanting to upgrade Kuznetsov, and fairly so IMO. Aside from last year and his 17-18 postseason his on-ice results have been quite pedestrian to very bad.

But doesn’t this same logic apply to Carlson? How long does Washington rely on John Carlson as their #1D when his only recent good postseason has been 17-18 and his on-ice impact over the past 5 seasons has been far less than what you’d expect out of a 1D? And for every complaint about Kuznetsov being lazy doesn’t that also apply to Carlson? He doesn’t have the same off-ice issues but at what point is it not worth trotting out a guy who actively hurts the team, especially in the postseason? Why has his 5v5 offensive impact gone in the toilet come postseason, and can we realistically expect it to return?

Given the return on the Ristolainen trade you’d have to expect Carlson to return a haul (especially to a team like Toronto or Montreal), including possibly desperately needed forward help. I hope they’ve been shopping him and kicking the tires on Hamilton. It’d be malpractice to actively avoid core turnover.

I think it’s fair to look at Carlson just like anyone, but he’s a Norris runner up 2 seasons ago, 12th last year….

how does that and his production or other contributions compare in terms of recent quality play, leadership, misc contributions for Kuzy? Seems lopsided in 74’s favor to me.

I’m struggling seeing this “same logic apply”….

 

[Misery74]

I think its been established that the Caps are a bubble team at best. Or no?

Tampa
Boston
Toronto
Florida

Look like locks from the Atlantic. Montreal and Ottawa will be plucky.

It is possible the Metro only gets three.

IMO, the Caps are a bubble team. And I don’t consider them Cup contenders as currently constructed.

 

[HeyMattyB]

Desperate? A bought out player has already been paid. Oprik wasn't desperate. He wanted to play in Washington. The agents job is to get the client what the client wants. Holtby has already been in Washington this summer. If bought out, Dude is going to do what he wants to do

How old was Orpik at the time, and at what stage was he in his career, and was there really any possibility for a bigger/better contract than the one he got from the Caps post buyout?

Seems to me that they're... not in very comparable situations. At all. But I guess we'll find out soon enough what situation Holtby's actually in, and if he wants to chase what could be his last opportunity to get paid.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I’m a little surprised people think Holtby is going to have many options beyond a 50/50 shot at a starter role of he can win it from the incumbent. One year deal, 2 tops at a much lower rate for sure.

 

[HeyMattyB]

I mean, I'm always surprised by how many hockey fans repeatedly call for professional athletes to make sweetheart deals when they're likely (if not absolutely) in a place where they can get more money/term. (Just as a recent example, see the Ovi thread on the trade forum.) But this is largely a speculation/rumor board, so what else is there to do but make cases for deals/trades/contracts/etc. that aren't likely to happen?

For example, I think if Holtby can get a 2-year/$2.5M contract (or even less), he'd take that over... signing with the Caps for one year and minimum wage, as was originally mentioned earlier? But, as a wise man once said, if I knew anything about the game, I'd be in it. And I'm not. And, again--we'll find out soon enough, won't we?

 

[Hivemind]

The Metropolitan has five teams that could conceivably win the division (Hurricanes, Islanders, Penguins, Rangers, Capitals). Philadelphia is having a questionable off-season, but has a trend of making the playoffs every other year (and a rebound season from Hart would put them back into the playoff hunt). So there's six teams in the metro competing for only 3 guaranteed playoff spots, and a maximum of five total. So we're already looking at the possibility of how the wild card slots are split between the Metro and Atlantic.

The Atlantic has two absolute locks for playoff spots - Tampa Bay and Toronto. Boston you have to figure is likely in as well, albeit there's a chance for some age-based regression and we don't know what's going to happen with their goaltending with Rask injured and Halak testing free agency. Is Swayman ready to be their #1? (Albeit, this concern is shared by plenty of posters here regarding Samsonov.) Florida had a really strong regular season (albeit COVID shortened) and looks to be getting stronger (aside of the loss of Dreidger), so they should be positioned well to contend for a playoff spot. Montreal is coming off a Cup Finals run, but they made the playoffs thanks to their division and are bound to regress with the Price injury, loss of Weber, and potential loss of Danault. They might be on the outside looking in, but will at least stay in the hunt. Detroit is probably still on the outside looking-in, but Yzerman is starting to make moves to accelerate their rebuild and make them a stronger team (plus they have infinite cap space to play with this off-season, and could end up taking advantage of cap strapped teams to add a couple more pieces).

Obviously a lot can still change in the remainder of the off-season, but right now the Capitals are going to be in a relatively intense fight for a playoff spot (either a metro or wild card slot). With the rise of the new Rangers core and the Hurricanes back in the division, it's entirely possible that one of the "old guard" teams (Pittsburgh and Washington) is either a wild card or left out of the playoffs entirely. The Capitals are going to need to do everything they can to stay ahead of teams like Pittsburgh, Florida, Philadelphia, and Montreal.

 

[OV Rocks]

Plenty of talk about wanting to upgrade Kuznetsov, and fairly so IMO. Aside from last year and his 17-18 postseason his on-ice results have been quite pedestrian to very bad.

But doesn’t this same logic apply to Carlson? How long does Washington rely on John Carlson as their #1D when his only recent good postseason has been 17-18 and his on-ice impact over the past 5 seasons has been far less than what you’d expect out of a 1D? And for every complaint about Kuznetsov being lazy doesn’t that also apply to Carlson? He doesn’t have the same off-ice issues but at what point is it not worth trotting out a guy who actively hurts the team, especially in the postseason? Why has his 5v5 offensive impact gone in the toilet come postseason, and can we realistically expect it to return?

Given the return on the Ristolainen trade you’d have to expect Carlson to return a haul (especially to a team like Toronto or Montreal), including possibly desperately needed forward help. I hope they’ve been shopping him and kicking the tires on Hamilton. It’d be malpractice to actively avoid core turnover.

It is a bit unfair to compare the Ristolainen trade to what Carlson could return.

1. Carlson is farrrr superior to Rustolainen and it is not even close
2. The Caps are in a different spot than Buffalo, the Sabres could afford to take draft picks back, Toronto's pick (high 20s) is of next to no value to this current team.
3. Who do you replace Carlson with? Lots of ifs and maybes if you trade Carlson and put together a strong offer to Hamilton, who I would argue is fairly comparable to Carlson's production.


A Carlson return should net a top 10 pick, an elite level prospect, and a top 6/top 4 player.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I mean, I'm always surprised by how many hockey fans repeatedly call for professional athletes to make sweetheart deals when they're likely (if not absolutely) in a place where they can get more money/term. (Just as a recent example, see the Ovi thread on the trade forum.) But this is largely a speculation/rumor board, so what else is there to do but make cases for deals/trades/contracts/etc. that aren't likely to happen?

For example, I think if Holtby can get a 2-year/$2.5M contract (or even less), he'd take that over... signing with the Caps for one year and minimum wage, as was originally mentioned earlier? But, as a wise man once said, if I knew anything about the game, I'd be in it. And I'm not. And, again--we'll find out soon enough, won't we?

you think he’s just chasing the biggest dollar amount for here on out? He may be, I dunno.

That said, a 2 year deal on a team or in a place you would rather not be but for a mil or 2 more doesn’t seem as attractive as a shorter deal in a better place/better team and where he could parlay that success into his next deal…

 

[tenken00]

Fun side bar related to Caps discussions:

In the dull days of the off-season I've really started to think about the difference in hockey interactions depending on the forum you're using:


HFBoards: Typically knowledgable enough about the sport and teams to make uniquely absurd posts.

EX: "I'm going to explain to you all why actually the best player in the last 20 years is not Crosby, McDavid, or Matthews... it's actually Corey Perry."

Cap Friendly: Conscious enough to know the salary cap is a thing, not self aware enough to understand the numbers aren't the only thing that needs to makes sense

EX: "Here is my proposed 2021-22 Maple Leafs, you'll notice I've swapped out our bottom 6 with McDavid, Ovechkin, MacKinnon, and Crosby. It took some retained salary and a few guys taking league minimum but I think it'll work. I did have to give up two 4th round picks though."


Reddit: Enthusiastic, but everyone suckles from the teat of the team PR machine

EX: "Does anyone know Brooks Laich's UFA status? I'm thinking we lock him up long term. Love me some Brooksy!"


Twitter: Opinions are barely anything beyond surface level, posts are typically played out jokes and just blind homerism.

EX: "Crysby sucks, I wouldn't take that Cindy on my team if he he paid us!"


Facebook: Just... the worst

EX: "WHY ARE THEY USING RAINBOW TAPE GOD DAMN IT! THE GAY AGENDA STRIKES AGAIN!"

I loled.

Also, I think JapersRink and RMNB also have a large and active online Caps contingent and followers.