Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Off-Season Pt. 2

[895]

Signing Dougie for 9m and trading Carlson for picks and prospects with no salary coming back would be a coup. It will never happen though.

 

[Hivemind]

Well.. it would be tough to replace both Kuznetsov and Carlson and expect to win much of anything.

For me, all the trade Carlson discussion comes with the caveat of mutual interest between the Capitals and Dougie Hamilton.

Trading Kuznetsov would have to come with the caveat of a legitimate replacement center, and those aren’t available short of the Caps becoming a dark horse for Eichel. And the only way the Caps would have the assets to land an Eichel would be trading Carlson and Kuznetsov to get them (or Wilson).

 

[twabby]

For me, all the trade Carlson discussion comes with the caveat of mutual interest between the Capitals and Dougie Hamilton.

Trading Kuznetsov would have to come with the caveat of a legitimate replacement center, and those aren’t available short of the Caps becoming a dark horse for Eichel.

Yes just to be clear, I'm not saying dump Carlson for futures and call it a day. There needs to be someone better coming back. But I'd be willing to give Hamilton closer to $10 million to make it work. Right now his rumored price is between $8 and $9 million a year for 7 years. Give him $10 million, replace Schultz with someone half as expensive, and that's an even tradeoff. With the added benefit of getting two better players and some likely prime assets. Maybe even enough assets to make a run at a 1C, especially if they make a high perceived-value player like Tom Wilson available as well.

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

For me, all the trade Carlson discussion comes with the caveat of mutual interest between the Capitals and Dougie Hamilton.

Trading Kuznetsov would have to come with the caveat of a legitimate replacement center, and those aren’t available short of the Caps becoming a dark horse for Eichel. And the only way the Caps would have the assets to land an Eichel would be trading Carlson and Kuznetsov to get them (or Wilson).

Basically, the Caps are screwed.

 

[g00n]

That's right, Carlson has hurt the team with repeated on-ice disappointments when crunch-time has come around. But good thing the scoreboard differentiates between on-ice vs. off-ice disappointments when judging the winner in a hockey game.

What does this even mean? Carlson needs to deliver just like Kuzy. But only one of these guys has the injury excuse as a possible explanation, and the other guy has been messing up the team ON the ice due to his OFF the ice behavior. That's poison.

 

[Corby78]

What does this even mean? Carlson needs to deliver just like Kuzy. But only one of these guys has the injury excuse as a possible explanation, and the other guy has been messing up the team ON the ice due to his OFF the ice behavior. That's poison.

I don't know how anyone can compare Carlson and Kuzy when it comes to disappointment. Its apples and oranges.

 

[twabby]

I don't know how anyone can compare Carlson and Kuzy when it comes to disappointment. Its apples and oranges.

Carlson has been more actively harmful on the ice compared to Kuznetsov the past 3 postseasons, but I wouldn’t throw Carlson under the bus that far.

On the whole both have been about equally disappointing with similar expectations due to similar contracts and importance of position (1D vs. 1C), so it seems like an apt comparison to me.

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

A lot of interesting forwards who could be reclamation projects are not being qualified. Well, "young-ish". Kasa (who had a lot of injuries), Donato, etc.

 

[searle]

A lot of interesting forwards who could be reclamation projects are not being qualified. Well, "young-ish". Kasa (who had a lot of injuries), Donato, etc.

Any good centres?

 

[txpd]

Lol "hypocrisy".

Nobody here was happy with Carlson's performance in the playoffs. But he also didn't f*** the team with repeated, stupid off-ice shit. Also reportedly injured.

Not married to either of them if GMBM needs to move them. Name on the front vs name on the back etc etc

MacLellan just said that Carlson had knee surgery, scoped.

 

[txpd]

Hmm. Carlson has been more actively harmful. Just shaking my head

 

[Calicaps]

Hmm. Carlson has been more actively harmful. Just shaking my head

It's just nuts

 

[Hivemind]

Hmm. Carlson has been more actively harmful. Just shaking my head

(not playoffs, but still horrid, lazy play)

 

[txpd]

It's just nuts

It is, but if the GM said that Kuznetsov hurt the team in those words and you would love to get Tom Wilson and John Carlson off the team, it would stand to reason that you would claim they both hurt the team too. Hurt the team worse in fact.

Nobody likes their own players particular if they are offensively gifted defensemen. I asked Carolina fans about the suggestion the Caps trade Carlson and sign Hamilton and the consensus was that was stupid. Some laughed. A lot of Canes fans dont like Dougie anymore than some here like Carlson

 

[Hivemind]

Accusing the analytics-minded crowd of having a bias against offensive defensemen in a new one.

 

[txpd]

It has nothing to do with analytics. Take it as a personal shot if you like. The offensive defenseman has the puck the most and is expected to do the most with it. He makes the most mistakes and they are those most obvious. Around here it starts with running a HHOF defenseman out of town.

If you want Carlson, out of town. Thats ok. At least you spell his name right

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

Saying Carlson is the biggest problem on this team is mind boggling.

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

The Caps mgmt team when free agency opens:

 

[twabby]

Hmm. Carlson has been more actively harmful. Just shaking my head

Yes that’s correct. Over the past 3 postseasons John Carlson is rocking a -1.59 goal differential per hour at 5v5, while Evgeny Kuznetsov is at -0.22 per hour.

And while results aren’t everything since they are subject to large amounts of luck, the underlying numbers don’t really paint Carlson in a great light either. He’s at a -1.41 expected goal differential per hour at 5v5, while Kuznetsov is at -0.61. Neither great, though Kuznetsov is again significantly better.

Furthermore, I don’t think any qualitative analysis really gives Carlson an edge either. He’s been downright awful on both ends of the ice for the past 3 postseasons, but especially defensively. Go through the post history here if need be. There are plenty of “WTF Carlson” posts I am sure.

So yes, I think it’s fair to say that Carlson has hurt the team more in the postseason over the past 3 years than Kuznetsov. He’s been worse by the numbers and he’s been at least as bad from my eye test. Blunder after blunder, missed play after missed play, they all add up.

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

Yes that’s correct. Over the past 3 postseasons John Carlson is rocking a -1.59 goal differential per hour at 5v5, while Evgeny Kuznetsov is at -0.22 per hour.

And while results aren’t everything since they are subject to large amounts of luck, the underlying numbers don’t really paint Carlson in a great light either. He’s at a -1.41 expected goal differential per hour at 5v5, while Kuznetsov is at -0.61. Neither great, though Kuznetsov is again significantly better.

Furthermore, I don’t think any qualitative analysis really gives Carlson an edge either. He’s been downright awful on both ends of the ice for the past 3 postseasons, but especially defensively. Go through the post history here if need be. There are plenty of “WTF Carlson” posts I am sure.

So yes, I think it’s fair to say that Carlson has hurt the team more in the postseason over the past 3 years than Kuznetsov. He’s been worse by the numbers and he’s been at least as bad from my eye test. Blunder after blunder, missed play after missed play, they all add up.

Fair enough. He seems to be playing through a lot of injuries. Would be nice to see them lighten his work load during the regular season.

 

[Roshi]

Yeah right. Talk about comparing two offensive dmen with stats. How about including the obvious one.

Last 3 years
Dougie 184 gp 42+79=121, 0.65 ppg
Johnny 201 gp 38+147=185, 0,92 ppg

playoffs
Dougie 0,41 ppg
Johnny 0,76 ppg

Hockey is more than 3 postseasons. Thats a bad run for everyone in Caps sweater, why the need to keep picking that up to compare. Why to refer less than 20 games take over about 200 games take.

but sure, lets pay more money for Dougie just to get rid of Carlson.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

MacLellan just said that Carlson had knee surgery, scoped.

No excuses! He’s “actively harmful”!

 

[traparatus]

I think Capitals have a match up problem. Caps' core players are not matching up well against top end competition. If a player is to play 20-28 minutes a game then at some point he will have to face the likes of Marchand, Barzal, Kucherov, Point, etc. Carlson gets crushed by this competition. Ditto for Backstrom when pairned with Ovechkin.

It all washes out a little bit during the regular season. You play Buffalo, New Jersey and the like. You face tired teams and disinterested teams, teams who have clinched playoff spots and don't have much to fight for. Come playoffs, it doesn't work. It's not just that Marchand/Bergeron/McAvoy were better than anything Caps had to offer, it's that they were a LOT better. They then lost in the 2nd round to the Islanders, who then lost to Tampa.

The make up of the Eastern Conference is such that it's getting very difficult for me a pin point a favorable 1st round match up for the Caps.

 

[gojetsgo]

he's got like 1 thing right before so don't know how legit it is, but if it is I was wondering how dillon played last year and what you guys would look for in return?

 

[twabby]

Yeah right. Talk about comparing two offensive dmen with stats. How about including the obvious one.

Last 3 years
Dougie 184 gp 42+79=121, 0.65 ppg
Johnny 201 gp 38+147=185, 0,92 ppg

playoffs
Dougie 0,41 ppg
Johnny 0,76 ppg

Hockey is more than 3 postseasons. Thats a bad run for everyone in Caps sweater, why the need to keep picking that up to compare. Why to refer less than 20 games take over about 200 games take.

but sure, lets pay more money for Dougie just to get rid of Carlson.

Points don’t measure a player’s impact on team goal differential. Indeed, they almost completely omit a player’s defensive contributions. While I think it’s fine to give offensive defensemen a bit more slack defensively, you can’t have a #1D be as poor as Carlson is in his own zone.

And I agree, let’s take a look at the past three seasons:

Spoiler: “Isolated 5v5 impacts of Hamilton and Carlson”

Here’s Hamilton:

Here’s Carlson:

I suspect that Hamilton on Washington would not only score at a similar rate as Carlson does currently, but would also be much more effective defensively. He’d be well worth $10 million IMO.