Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2019 Offseason Pt. 1: The BMac Attack

[Langway]

Releasing Connolly allows to keep all others this summer. Take a deep breath.

All* may not include Burakovsky, Orpik or Hagelin. That doesn't work too seamlessly either. Nothing does, initially anyway.

It's probably more like do they trade Niskanen or perhaps Orlov in order to retain Connolly and maybe Orpik. What's the most valuable configuration for next season and beyond? It depends in part on the returns they can get, which likely have to revolve around cheap NHL-ready third-line wingers. While Niskanen still handles tough minutes alright and isn't quite in Alzner territory yet, there's a more legit and ready alternative to him (Jensen) than there is for anyone else. It isn't an equal replacement, and may never be physically, but they clearly liked his skill set and PK ability when acquiring him. That gets them maybe two-thirds to where Niskanen takes them, perhaps more, and that's probably more than can be said of Barber(?)/Connolly, Siegenthaler/Orlov or Samsonov/Holtby. Siegenthaler is probably next in some respects in his ability to play a passable 2LD so maybe it comes down to which of 2/9 carries the best trade value.

Connolly's demands also will be a factor but even if they lose him I think they're bound to need to sign someone like a Donskoi at least to offset his loss, in which case the cap will still need some clearing. Subtract Connolly & Burakovsky next season and I'm not sure they'd have the discipline to play more of a grind it out type game, particularly without some of their more key PKers as well. A regular season of the stars carrying the team would be hard to altogether rely upon and also hard to gear toward the sort of quality team play they'll need to once again be strong contenders.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

For what purpose? What role/assignment? Orlov-Niskanen is a defending pair. They play defending assignments. Kempny-Carlson is an attack pair. They play offensive assignments.

Carlson and Orlov are our best 2 defenders. That’s why

I’m sure we put Kempny back with Carlson when hes healthy because they have good chemistry.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

On the drive home last night listening to the Sirius/XM NHL radio station and they had Chris Kuc, Washington Capitals beat reporter for the Athletic on. They were asking about the season and the Caps performance and if there was any finger pointing and the name that came up was Kuznetsov's less than stellar performance. He believes that the team will undergo some significant changes this off season and specifically mentioned Niskanen as possibly being traded for cap relief purposes. He indicated Connolly mentioned that he was willing to take a home town discount but still wants to get paid a decent contract. Kuc further believes that the Capitals may try to let Burakovsky slip to free agency and then resign him at a lesser amount then what he had been making. Matthew Barnaby commented during the program that he believes Burakovsky has talent and if the Caps let him go, he could see Burakovsky with his talent flourish with another team and become a 30 goal scorer.

That being said, I've seen some of this play out before where we let the likes of Mike Green and Alexander Semin depart and got nothing because the Caps felt that they were needed for the playoff push. We all know how that ended.

 

[marcel snapshot]

If you're trying to decide between trading Orlov and Niskanen, it's not really close IMO. Orlov can play with pace - sometimes poorly, sure. But when he's on, he plays the high-tempo game needed for team success in the NHL. Nisky's ability to do that fell off this year, and is likely to continue to decline.

 

[tenken00]

Kuc further believes that the Capitals may try to let Burakovsky slip to free agency and then resign him at a lesser amount then what he had been making. Matthew Barnaby commented during the program that he believes Burakovsky has talent and if the Caps let him go, he could see Burakovsky with his talent flourish with another team and become a 30 goal scorer.

If Bura slips to free agency, he's gone. There are plenty of teams with cap space that will gladly pay the same amount as his qualifying offer of $3.25 mil or more.

 

[txpd]

If you're trying to decide between trading Orlov and Niskanen, it's not really close IMO. Orlov can play with pace - sometimes poorly, sure. But when he's on, he plays the high-tempo game needed for team success in the NHL. Nisky's ability to do that fell off this year, and is likely to continue to decline.

The ability to play with pace is the only factor? Niskanen plays in all situations. Particularly in critical defensive situations where Orlov doesn't. Orlov is supposed to a dynamic offensive player yet he scored goals in only 2 games this season and Niskanen scored more than double the number of goals.

Summary.

Niskanen plays more minutes than Orlov
Niskanen is a better defender than Orlov
Niskanen out scored Orlov.
Orlov plays with pace.

 

[tenken00]

The ability to play with pace is the only factor? Niskanen plays in all situations. Particularly in critical defensive situations where Orlov doesn't. Orlov is supposed to a dynamic offensive player yet he scored goals in only 2 games this season and Niskanen scored more than double the number of goals.

Summary.

Niskanen plays more minutes than Orlov
Niskanen is a better defender than Orlov
Niskanen out scored Orlov.
Orlov plays with pace.

If a tree falls in a forest, but nobody is around to hear it, does it make a sound?

If Niskanen defends better than Orlov, but can't clear the puck or loses the puck or too slow to catch up to loose pucks or blindly throws pucks up the boards or up the middle resulting in the team being hemmed in the defensive zone for a full minute or two and tiring everyone out, is it really better?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If a tree falls in a forest, but nobody is around to hear it, does it make a sound?

If Niskanen defends better than Orlov, but can't clear the puck or loses the puck or too slow to catch up to loose pucks or blindly throws pucks up the boards or up the middle resulting in the team being hemmed in the defensive zone focr a full minute or two and tiring everyone out, is it really better?

Care to break down Orlov struggles? You seem to gloss over his (mostly the same) shortcomings.

Niskanen might be the D some of you want traded most, but Orlov might be a more desirable trade piece for an impact move.

Me, I think just like some around here were so sure Kuzy was underperforming because he was hurt, I don’t think Niskanen has been at 100% all year. I expect a bounce back if he can stay healthy.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Orlov is trash at times because he's unfocused.

Niskanen is trash at times because he's old and can't move.

One of these can be fixed... the decision is easy.

 

[tenken00]

Care to break down Orlov struggles? You seem to gloss over his (mostly the same) shortcomings.

We all know Orlov's and Niskanen's strengths and weaknesses. Niskanen's decline has changed that equation as well.

I'm just responding to txpd's post that since Niskanen has better defensive play, he's overall the better player. But it's more than just that for overall team defense. Nisky is great defensively if we play against a defensive team that falls back, but he's a BIG liability defensively against teams that like to forecheck.

All I'm saying is that it goes both ways.

 

[txpd]

Orlov is trash at times because he's unfocused.

Niskanen is trash at times because he's old and can't move.

One of these can be fixed... the decision is easy.

Which one is that? Niskanen didn't recover from the cup run very well. Maybe that can be fixed and maybe he is just over the hill. Orlov's offense evaporated. Can that be fixed? Orlov's one on one defending was awful. Maybe that can be fixed. Orlov's pk and late game defending was bad enough to lose that ice time even after Kempny went down. Maybe that can be fixed too.

Lets not talk about it like Niskanen was the only one with issues. They both had trouble. My point is that Niskanen plays a bigger role on the team and will be harder to replace than Orlov's toi. That you should think again if you think Jensen is going to step up to 23:00 average toi, shutdown pair and pk1 and that the Caps defending and pk will look more like the Caps than the Red Wings.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

We all know Orlov's and Niskanen's strengths and weaknesses. Niskanen's decline has changed that equation as well.

I'm just responding to txpd's post that since Niskanen's has better defensive play, he's overall the better player. But it's more than just that for overall team defense. Nisky's great defensively if we play against a defensive team that falls back, but he's a BIG liability defensively against teams that like to forecheck.

All I'm saying is that it goes both ways.

I guess I don’t get the point then, when they both struggle with mostly the same things except foot speed-related skills.

IMO it boils down to Orlov is younger and more physically gifted but lacks the hockey IQ to ever be much more than he is now. The ideal trade parter is a team willing to gift him PP1 primary minutes, making him more valuable to the acquirer.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Orlov is trash at times because he's unfocused.

Niskanen is trash at times because he's old and can't move.

One of these can be fixed... the decision is easy.

You say “unfocused”, I say low hockey IQ.

Niskanen certainly seems like the one to move if those are the only two D in play by GMBM. I’d explore all my options.

 

[Corby78]

Care to break down Orlov struggles? You seem to gloss over his (mostly the same) shortcomings.

Niskanen might be the D some of you want traded most, but Orlov might be a more desirable trade piece for an impact move.

Me, I think just like some around here were so sure Kuzy was underperforming because he was hurt, I don’t think Niskanen has been at 100% all year. I expect a bounce back if he can stay healthy.

This is where I am trusting GMBM to get this right. Alzner was never coming back and was the right move. I’m trusting the front office to know if this was a niski bad year, or the beginning of the end.

 

[tenken00]

I guess I don’t get the point then, when they both struggle with mostly the same things except foot speed-related skills.

IMO it boils down to Orlov is younger and more physically gifted but lacks the hockey IQ to ever be much more than he is now. The ideal trade parter is a team willing to gift him PP1 primary minutes, making him more valuable to the acquirer.

The whole team struggled with those particular issues throughout the Carolina series, but the best defenders that actually could start a breakout and make intelligent passes or move the puck up themselves were obviously Orlov and Jensen. They all had issues, but Carlson and Niskanen seemed especially pronounced.

Edit: I guess the point is: if you can't ever get it out of your zone, it doesn't matter how well you defend. They are going to eventually score on you.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This is where I am trusting GMBM to get this right. Alzner was never coming back and was the right move. I’m trusting the front office to know if this was a niski bad year, or the beginning of the end.

absolutely.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The whole team struggled with those particular issues throughout the Carolina series, but the best defenders that actually could start a breakout and make intelligent passes or move the puck up themselves were obviously Orlov and Jensen. They all had issues, but Carlson and Niskanen seemed especially pronounced.

Edit: I guess the point is: if you can't ever get it out of your zone, it doesn't matter how well you defend. They are going to eventually score on you.

I think it was a system adjustment that didn't happen more than anything. Caps were predictable in that aspect. Let's not pretend neither Orlov or Jensen had some around the boards clears intercepted just like the rest.

 

[tenken00]

I think it was a system adjustment that didn't happen more than anything. Caps were predictable in that aspect.

I agree on this.

My argument was about how Orlov, although not a better individual defender, is more valuable to the overall value of the team's defense. Brain farts and all.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I agree on this.

My argument was about how Orlov, although not a better individual defender, is more valuable to the overall value of the team's defense. Brain farts and all.

But the coaching staff deployments seem to be contrary to that thinking overall. Who's Carlson's PP1 and all situations backup without Nisky?

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Which one is that? Niskanen didn't recover from the cup run very well. Maybe that can be fixed and maybe he is just over the hill. Orlov's offense evaporated. Can that be fixed? Orlov's one on one defending was awful. Maybe that can be fixed. Orlov's pk and late game defending was bad enough to lose that ice time even after Kempny went down. Maybe that can be fixed too.

Lets not talk about it like Niskanen was the only one with issues. They both had trouble. My point is that Niskanen plays a bigger role on the team and will be harder to replace than Orlov's toi. That you should think again if you think Jensen is going to step up to 23:00 average toi, shutdown pair and pk1 and that the Caps defending and pk will look more like the Caps than the Red Wings.

You can't fix age, if you figure out how to let me know. Niskanen is done, he did not report any injuries in exit interviews, his play never looked as if he was favoring something, he just looks slower and weaker aka older.

All of the things you've listed with Orlov can actually be fixed. Will they be fixed? Unlikely, but there are documented cases of guys figuring that stuff out.


To my knowledge there aren't too many guys who figured out how to make their knees, shoulders, and backs younger.


I understand you hate Orlov for some reason, but from a straight up objective pro-con list it's not even close.

The biggest tally in Niskanen's corner is that he ate a lot of minutes, that's a replaceable feat.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

You say “unfocused”, I say low hockey IQ.

Niskanen certainly seems like the one to move if those are the only two D in play by GMBM. I’d explore all my options.

Low hockey IQ can be fixed too.


I mean look guys, it's not like we're comparing Jeff Schultz and Scott Niedermeyer, they both have obvious warts. No one is arguing that either is a Norris winner. That being said, it's abundantly clear that one is way more replaceable and at a way more bygone era of his career.


The Niskanen crowd reek of the Alzner defense, like yeah, he plays a lot of minutes and he at one point was pretty effective, but why are we mortgaging the future for a guy that we literally can replace for a fraction of the cost?

 

[txpd]

You can't fix age, if you figure out how to let me know. Niskanen is done, he did not report any injuries in exit interviews, his play never looked as if he was favoring something, he just looks slower and weaker aka older.

All of the things you've listed with Orlov can actually be fixed. Will they be fixed? Unlikely, but there are documented cases of guys figuring that stuff out.


To my knowledge there aren't too many guys who figured out how to make their knees, shoulders, and backs younger.


I understand you hate Orlov for some reason, but from a straight up objective pro-con list it's not even close.

The biggest tally in Niskanen's corner is that he ate a lot of minutes, that's a replaceable feat.

Ah, come on man. Its not hate on Orlov. Its just simple analysis. Orlov does fewer things for the team. If you are straight up pro and con, then your judgement is based entirely on the unknown. Age. You are not pro and conning that Niskanen is a vastly more important player to the team than Orlov. Orlov is not a younger Niskanen ready to step up and take on that role. He doesn't do those things. Lets set aside that some of what Orlov brings superior to the team, he didn't last season.

my pro and con shows me that even reduced by age, Niskanen provides more quality and more different roles and will be harder to replace. Not sure why you don't see that.

 

[txpd]

why are we mortgaging the future for a guy that we literally can replace for a fraction of the cost?.

I am not seeing this. Mortgaging what future? The return for 2 or trading 9? Fraction of the cost? You think there is a #2 toi all purpose defenseman for your shutdown pair and pk1 that is available at any cost??

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

I am not seeing this. Mortgaging what future? The return for 2 or trading 9? Fraction of the cost? You think there is a #2 toi all purpose defenseman for your shutdown pair and pk1 that is available at any cost??

The cap space that Niskanen occupies is preventing us from resigning needed depth, some posters are advocating for him to stay in lieu of freeing that space and protecting the future.

I also don't think I said that Niskanen's replacement is available at any cost, rather a fraction of the cost, as in he's already on the team.

 

[txpd]

The cap space that Niskanen occupies is preventing us from resigning needed depth, some posters are advocating for him to stay in lieu of freeing that space and protecting the future.

I also don't think I said that Niskanen's replacement is available at any cost, rather a fraction of the cost, as in he's already on the team.

Does not Orlov occupy very similar cap space? Niskanen's replacement is already on the team? Who? You cant be serious thinking Jensen is a 2 or good enough to fake it. MacLellan just said he is a 4/5.

If you are thinking something a long the lines of

Orlov Jensen
Kempny Carlson
Seigenthaler Djoos

Is good enough, you are in for a rude surprise. No point in really continuing my end of this. I can see that nothing I am saying is scoring any points. Next please