Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2018-19 We Are The Champions Edition - Pt. 6

[kicksavedave]

Whats mind boggling about it? I am not criticizing anyone. I am just reading the demeanor of the guy in his post game presser. I defended his coaching. I am just saying he didn't look right.

He's 1 for his last 9. He SHOULD be uncomfortable talking about it, because there's not much positive to speak of, but thats a trillion miles from being on the hot seat. Scotty Bowman would be uncomfortable talking about a rough streak like this. Bad take!

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I would not be prepared to pay whatever it'll end up taking for Ferland or Simmonds if that's their preference. Overall I think work ethic and attention to detail is more important.

Dzingel or Silfverberg make more sense but not being able to maximize a player's offensive strengths is a significant limitation, esp. given their high-end guys. Zucc doesn't have ideal size but the motor and skill would play on any contender regardless.

I read this morning that Silfverberg and Anaheim were making progress on an extension and likely the only way he's moved is if those talks fell through.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

He definitely needs more cook time but the Bears have points in 9 straight games and Samsonov has played a big part in that. In his last six games he is 5-0-1 with two shutouts, a .958 save %, and a 0.99 GAA.

In his last 9 starts he is at .935 save %. This makes him the best G in AHL right now. If we assume that he finally adapted to the NA lifestyle, language etc., and starts to produce at his expected Vasylevsky/Bobrovsky level, I can imagine him start some games with Caps this season and do the backup job in playoffs.

 

[kicksavedave]

In his last 9 starts he is at .935 save %. This makes him the best G in AHL right now. If we assume that he finally adapted to the NA lifestyle, language etc., and starts to produce at his expected Vasylevsky/Bobrovsky level, I can imagine him start some games with Caps this season and do the backup job in playoffs.

Which playoffs? He won't be the backup in DC unless there is an injury. You meant the Bears playoffs?

 

[hb12xchamps]

In his last 9 starts he is at .935 save %. This makes him the best G in AHL right now. If we assume that he finally adapted to the NA lifestyle, language etc., and starts to produce at his expected Vasylevsky/Bobrovsky level, I can imagine him start some games with Caps this season and do the backup job in playoffs.

Don't see Sammy getting any NHL games unless there is an injury to Holtby/Copley or they give him the last game of the season after already clinching a playoff spot/home ice. Even then do they bring up Sammy or Vanecek?

 

[Melkor]

 

[Sam Spade]

Zuccarello doesn’t need to be on the PP to be effective. He’s a really good two way forward, and can help the PK as well.

I would be surprised if he isn’t the teams primary target.

Carl Hagelin can do the same and won't cost anything close to what Zuccarello will.

 

[Hivemind]

Carl Hagelin can do the same and won't cost anything close to what Zuccarello will.

You can't be serious in comparing Carl Hagelin (in 2019) to Mats Zuccarello

 

[Hivemind]

In his last 9 starts he is at .935 save %. This makes him the best G in AHL right now. If we assume that he finally adapted to the NA lifestyle, language etc., and starts to produce at his expected Vasylevsky/Bobrovsky level, I can imagine him start some games with Caps this season and do the backup job in playoffs.

The extension to Copley pretty much indicates that won't be happening.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

The extension to Copley pretty much indicates that won't be happening.

If they move Holtby after this season this extension makes sense too.

 

[txpd]

Are they only allowed one move?

2 answers.

1. I was speaking specifically about that one move.
2. I could see 3. A Burt replace. A Beagle replace. A veteran LD to push Kempney

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

The extension to Copley pretty much indicates that won't be happening.

I agree, which makes the Copley extension all the more confusing.


I get the idea behind it, I don't understand the timing. Why not wait until after the season? I'm very confused as to what our moves with Vanecek is going to be here on out. I get that securing a back up for 3 years insures that Samsonov is not rushed to the NHL as well as gives us another contract to float out in the expansion draft, but it also creates a log jam in Hershey.


Vanecek should not and cannot wait another 3 years to see his NHL debut, kid shouldn't even have to wait one more year. This leads me to believe he is going to be dealt sooner or later, I do not see the upside in dealing Vanecek without him ever getting a taste of the NHL. His value is going to be way lower than it's likely actual value, his ceiling is likely higher than Copley's, and there is a very decent chance that we're going to move on from a very good G who we could lock down on a very affordable contract and have him back up Holtby while Samsonov develops.

I think this ultimately boils down to what is the point of the Copley contract? He's played well, but not amazing. In the off season there will be a litany of goalies of similar ability available. We are already experiencing somewhat of a jam in talent in that position. It seems super unlikely he's the pick for Seattle in the expansion draft when you consider the bigger names/better talent we'll need to expose.

 

[traparatus]

Let's be honest: Caps 3rd line have absolutely no 5 on 5 style of play one can be afraid to change. And I take Zuccarello over Connolly on the pp2 any day.

You forgot the most important thing: Zuccarello can PK. On actual team this argument make him instant 2nd/3rd liner. He is a 0.7 PPG NHL forward too. Only three F do better on our team.

Zuccarello is a 20min/game 1st line player. He plays 3min/game on the PP. The price to acquire him will reflect this.

When you introduce him into Caps line up, his total time on ice will drop by 5 minutes a game and his PP time will plummet, his deployment will shift toward defense and his quality of linemates will drop. None of this would be reflected in the price that Caps would have paid for the player. He would be completely out of his comfort zone and within 2 weeks we'll have people screaming 'What the hell is wrong with Zuccarello???'

Another thing. We don't need players who can PK. We need players who can PK and are actually good at it. Zuccarello is a cog in one of the NHL worst penalty kills. Caps have plenty of players who are bad at killing penalties.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

I agree, which makes the Copley extension all the more confusing.


I get the idea behind it, I don't understand the timing. Why not wait until after the season? I'm very confused as to what our moves with Vanecek is going to be here on out. I get that securing a back up for 3 years insures that Samsonov is not rushed to the NHL as well as gives us another contract to float out in the expansion draft, but it also creates a log jam in Hershey.


Vanecek should not and cannot wait another 3 years to see his NHL debut, kid shouldn't even have to wait one more year. This leads me to believe he is going to be dealt sooner or later, I do not see the upside in dealing Vanecek without him ever getting a taste of the NHL. His value is going to be way lower than it's likely actual value, his ceiling is likely higher than Copley's, and there is a very decent chance that we're going to move on from a very good G who we could lock down on a very affordable contract and have him back up Holtby while Samsonov develops.

I think this ultimately boils down to what is the point of the Copley contract? He's played well, but not amazing. In the off season there will be a litany of goalies of similar ability available. We are already experiencing somewhat of a jam in talent in that position. It seems super unlikely he's the pick for Seattle in the expansion draft when you consider the bigger names/better talent we'll need to expose.

I don't get all this 'not rush Samsonov' thing. Future Vesina Samsonov is NHL ready today. Right here and right now. Like Ovechkin was NHL ready in 2005. Same thing.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

If they move Holtby after this season this extension makes sense too.

Find it really hard to believe the team would commit to moving Holtby while

A). The team is still primed for "win now" mode

B). We have zero battle tested G's stocked and ready to go, only potential.



I think everyone in the "trade Holtby" camp conveniently forgets how many "superior" goalies we had to burn through before we found Holts. From Theodore to Holtby these are the G's we revolved through (note I did not include obvious backups like Peters/Johnson):

• Varlamov (First round talent, had a great playoff showing in 2009 and 2010)
• Neuvirth (Early second round pick, supposedly better than Varlamov, handed the reigns and expected to secure the #1 spot when Varly was traded)
• Vokoun (perenial Vezina/All-Star candidate, largely considered to be vastly under rated because of his stints on terrible teams)
• Halak (A capable G that we had seen first hand could steal playoff series)
• Grubauer (A 4th round pick, played the backup role well and much like Neuvirth began to gain the reputation of being potentially better than the 1 G, was so impressive last season he was tagged with G responsibilities heading into the playoffs)

These are our answers besides Holtby for the last 10 years, when you stare at them it's easy to see why they were so highly touted at different points, but when push came to shove the body of their work never amounted to a serious and stable 1 G spot.


You absolutely cannot and should not ever make decisions based on the perceived depth of your goalie pipeline. At one point our team had Varlamov, Neuvirth, Holtby, and a freshly drafted Grubauer. Of those 4 the second lowest drafted one is the only one still here and the only one to produce anything meaningful for any team.


Until Samsonov or Vanecek is essentially an All Star candidate I see zero reason to move Holtby unless we're rebuilding.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

I don't get all this 'not rush Samsonov' thing. Future Vesina Samsonov is NHL ready today. Right here and right now. Like Ovechkin was NHL ready in 2005. Same thing.

Goalies develop so much slower than skaters and it's way easier to jack up their development. If you stick a skater out on the ice and he's -4 it's a bit of an easier lesson than if a goalie is shalacked and lets in 4 softies. There is a reason why most NHL G's spend significant time in the AHL and ECHL, you want them to be basically bursting with readiness when they get the call.

Unless you have a generational Price, or Carter Hart, it's a bad idea to bring your G up before he's basically bored with the competition. Even the Carter Hart experiment in Philly might be a bad idea. You stick a young G out there with a bad team and you're going to make him have to deal with a lot of garbage that isn't his fault but he doesn't recognize.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Zuccarello is a 20min/game 1st line player. He plays 3min/game on the PP. The price to acquire him will reflect this.

When you introduce him into Caps line up, his total time on ice will drop by 5 minutes a game and his PP time will plummet, his deployment will shift toward defense and his quality of linemates will drop. None of this would be reflected in the price that Caps would have paid for the player. He would be completely out of his comfort zone and within 2 weeks we'll have people screaming 'What the hell is wrong with Zuccarello???'

Another thing. We don't need players who can PK. We need players who can PK and are actually good at it. Zuccarello is a cog in one of the NHL worst penalty kills. Caps have plenty of players who are bad at killing penalties.

If you read all the posts on Zuccarello, you can note that the initial question was more open 'what do we think of him?' and not precisely 'should we buy him?'

And you only look at his 2018/19 PK stats, aren't you?

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Goalies develop so much slower than skaters and it's way easier to jack up their development. If you stick a skater out on the ice and he's -4 it's a bit of an easier lesson than if a goalie is shalacked and lets in 4 softies. There is a reason why most NHL G's spend significant time in the AHL and ECHL, you want them to be basically bursting with readiness when they get the call.

Unless you have a generational Price, or Carter Hart, it's a bad idea to bring your G up before he's basically bored with the competition. Even the Carter Hart experiment in Philly might be a bad idea. You stick a young G out there with a bad team and you're going to make him have to deal with a lot of garbage that isn't his fault but he doesn't recognize.

This is why I say Samsonov will have some games this year, will make some shootouts, and we will be done with this 'do not rush' story.

Then we had Varlamov, Neuvirth and Holtby we choose the best of three and kept him and Grubauer as backup. This time we had Holtby, Grubauer and Samsonov. We will keep the best one and Coppley as a backup.

 

[traparatus]

If you read all the posts on Zuccarello, you can note that the initial question was more open 'what do we think of him?' and not precisely 'should we buy him?'

And you only look at his 2018/19 PK stats, aren't you?

Going back three seasons, I don't see any indications that Zuccarello is in any way an improvement on our current penalty killing group. If you have information to the contrary, I'm fully open to a discussion.

I think the same thing of Zuccarello that I think of Panarin, Stone, Duchene, Simmonds, etc. You don't pay the price for a 1st line player to fill a 3rd line wing spot.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Do we really think an addition of the likes of Zuccarello or Hagelin would create a seachange for this team. Right now I only see Ovechkin, Wilson, Vrana and Oshie of the forwards playing at a high compete level. On defense I see Carlson, Kempny, Orpik and Seig competing along with the goalies. The team's centermen (Backstrom, Kuzy and Eller) have been MIA for most of the season, and the bottom 6 forwards have been meh. Nisky and Orlov have not been playing their best. Bottom line, lots of holes, so the addition of a bottom 6 player is not going to make a significant impact. I want to see Burakovsky gone as much as the next Caps fan, but adding to a Bura package to acquire a bottom 6 player does not work for me. We're all aware of the lack of depth this organization has at forward in Hershey. Perhaps Bura for picks may be the best option.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Going back three seasons, I don't see any indications that Zuccarello is in any way an improvement on our current penalty killing group. If you have information to the contrary, I'm fully open to a discussion.

I think the same thing of Zuccarello that I think of Panarin, Stone, Duchene, Simmonds, etc. You don't pay the price for a 1st line player to fill a 3rd line wing spot.

Didn’t doing exactly that arguably bring the Pens a Cup?

Not advocating anything more than always trying to improve your roster, just sayin....

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

This is why I say Samsonov will have some games this year, will make some shootouts, and we will be done with this 'do not rush' story.

Then we had Varlamov, Neuvirth and Holtby we choose the best of three and kept him and Grubauer as backup. This time we had Holtby, Grubauer and Samsonov. We will keep the best one and Coppley as a backup.

That's not how it went down though.

We never surveyed all 3, picked our favorite and shipped the rest off. Essentially each guy in front of Holtby burned his bridge and was shipped off. Varlamov didn't want to be in competition and it was clear he was not going to be a guy who worked with management, Neuvirth then felt like the space was free for him and he infamously threw Holtby under the bus in a Czech interview (basically saying Holtby wasn't serious competition and the spot was his), when Neuvirth clearly wasn't the guy it was obvious that it was toxic to have him around. We also tried to plug in several veteran stop gaps during this time (Vokoun/Halak/Peters) to try and provide some consistency but that failed too. Finally, Holtby emerged as our #1 and by pure luck we had Grubauer in our system who had developed nicely as well. There was never a point that management looked over all three, picked Holtby, picked Grubi, and discarded the rest. It was a very, very, very messy process and required tons of trial and error.


I also don't understand why we're magically leap frogging Samsonov in the depth chart. We have half a season of sample size for Samsonov, and half of that isn't even that great. Meanwhile we've got 7+ years of Holtby, 3+ of Vanecek, and 5+ of Copley. Simply being of a higher draft spot than the rest of the depth chart doesn't earn you anything. The history of this organization (and league) is rife with first round G's that couldn't hang, Samsonov will need to earn his spot and playing 1/4 of a good season in the AHL does not allow him to dethrone a Vezina and SC winning G or any of the other guys in front of him.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Going back three seasons, I don't see any indications that Zuccarello is in any way an improvement on our current penalty killing group. If you have information to the contrary, I'm fully open to a discussion.

I think the same thing of Zuccarello that I think of Panarin, Stone, Duchene, Simmonds, etc. You don't pay the price for a 1st line player to fill a 3rd line wing spot.

We have only one wing forward (Wilson) who can PK. We need at least three. Oshie is more than terrible this year. And honestly with all his injuries should not PK any second more. DSP and Stephenson are hurting 5v5 lines production and CF%. No one from Burakovsky, Connolly, Boyd, Jaskin and Vrana can PK right now. So, as a medical evidence, Zuccarello will be the instant second best wing forward with PK duties on Caps.

 

[traparatus]

I think the only external addition that would make a fundamental difference for this team, is a #1 penalty killing defenseman who can take over Orpik's/Niskanen's minutes on the PK. Everything else can be fixed by roster players performing up to their ability.

There are no immediate internal fixes for the PK issue. We managed to overcome a horrific PK on the way to the Cup but that's no good reason to make a habit of it.

 

[traparatus]

Didn’t doing exactly that arguably bring the Pens a Cup?

Not advocating anything more than always trying to improve your roster, just sayin....

I see your point. I assume you are talking about Kessel.

Keep in mind, adding Kessel did not immediately transform the Pens. It took most of the season, a coach getting fired and a completely re-defining of the way Pens played hockey. Furthermore, Kessel always had a spot on the 1st PP unit.

It's February and people are talking about adding pure rentals and playing them in spots and situations that they are absolutely not accustomed to be in. This sounds a lot like Eric Staal trade to New York, to me.