Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2018-19 We Are The Champions Edition - Pt. 5

[AlexBrovechkin8]

All this talk about adding big names who will command top dollar, and all this talk about the best way to fill out the bottom six, who to keep, who to dump, all while up against the cap. Good conversations. But not one mention of the one area where I think we can actually see the most savings, AND alleviate the expansion draft issues - Goalie. Holtby won us a Cup, so did everyone else we're talking about here. But Copley has shown to be not only a competent backup, but a solid spot starter for more than the occasional 2nd half of a back to back. Holts will make $5M for the next two years. Samsonov should be ready to make the jump by then, and we risk losing him no matter what.

I'd seriously look to move Holts after this season ends (depending on HOW it ends) to free up some space to keep the rest of the bottom six core and/or add some talent up top. After this season, I would be willing to roll the dice with Copley and Sams in net, for great caps savings to spend on the ice. Thoughts?

Definitely not. I go back and forth on whether or not they should re-sign Holtby in two years but trading him after this season is a really bad idea. You keep this team together as long as possible to win more Cups while you still have Ovechkin and Backstrom playing at elite levels. Holtby is a Vezina winner and a Cup champion and it looks like his bad calendar year of 2017-18 is behind him. He's a hell of a lot more valuable than incrementally better players in the bottom six or however else you'd use his salary and it's not like Samsonov has been lighting the AHL up for 2-3 years and is clearly ready for more responsibility.

I just want to remind everyone that this team has won the division three years in a row along with two Presidents Trophies, one Stanley Cup, and they're in first in their division yet again this year. The point of building a team is to be this good - why the strong desire to mess with a great thing? Why the proposals to bring in big name UFAs? Chemistry is a real thing and this team has it.

 

[txpd]

This right here is a reason why I would seriously consider it. If the PP continues to be a stagnant mess injecting fresh blood may be needed. Also, 5v5 I cant see why replacing Bura with Panarin wouldn't be a positive. With as well as our 4th line has been playing, we get Oshie/Wilson back we have 4 serious lines to roll out.

The power play is stagnant because Kuznetsov is recovering from a concussion and Oshie is out of the lineup.

Why wouldn't replacing Burakovsky with Panarin be good? We can start with how Panarin wouldn't be happy with that assignment. Paying Panarin $11m for that spot doesn't make a lot of sense either.

 

[Calicaps]

I just want to remind everyone that this team has won the division three years in a row along with two Presidents Trophies, one Stanley Cup, and they're in first in their division yet again this year. The point of building a team is to be this good - why the strong desire to mess with a great thing? Why the proposals to bring in big name UFAs? Chemistry is a real thing and this team has it.

This. This. This. This. This. ad infinitum.

Also, when 8 and 19, and to a lesser extent 77, are done, this team will suffer. Just have to accept it. They may still be good, but they won't be world-beater good for probably a long while. Love 92. Love 13. LOVE 43 and 74. But Ovie and Backs are the heart and soul. No amount of Panarin and Karlsson fixes that.

 

[um]

I just want to remind everyone that this team has won the division three years in a row along with two Presidents Trophies, one Stanley Cup, and they're in first in their division yet again this year. The point of building a team is to be this good - why the strong desire to mess with a great thing? Why the proposals to bring in big name UFAs? Chemistry is a real thing and this team has it.

To be fair there's not to talk about until the playoffs.

Being too good can get boring.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

He did take the security of a 10 year deal.....

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

To be fair there's not to talk about until the playoffs.

Being too good can get boring.

Find a good book to read in that case, my friend. I personally dread the day when we have a lot to talk about in terms of rebuilding the roster. Or join us on the Redskins page - there sure is a lot to talk about there!

 

[kicksavedave]

Find a good book to read in that case, my friend. I personally dread the day when we have a lot to talk about in terms of rebuilding the roster. Or join us on the Redskins page - there sure is a lot to talk about there!

LOL, and here we have the two polar extremes in one city. A defending champ, so good year in year out, who has made personnel moves which largely have been excellent, so much so that there's virtually no legitimate angst or disagreement except from a few outlier posters.... and.... then there's the Redskins, consistently so bad that fans are jumping ship faster than if the Titanic were also on fire. With the Redskins, its not that there's not much to discuss, its just that I can't be bothered to give two chits about that raging dumpster fire of a franchise anymore.

Being a Caps fan used to be really hard. Now its just hard to find anything to complain about. Kudos Ted, GMBM, Barry, Todd, Ovi and the rest.

 

[kicksavedave]

Thats a GIANT roll of the dice....

I'm more sure about what will happen with goaltending in the next 2 season that anything else. Nothing. Holtby will play out his contract. Samsonov will continue to play in Hershey at least this season.

I tend to agree on both counts, but thats why I said "depending on how this year plays out". Lets be reality, Holtby has been a very streaky, hot cold goalie lately (for a year at least). He was benched last year for 1/4 plus of the season and the start of the playoffs. He got hot in the playoffs, but what if he goes cold streaky Loltby in the playoffs this year? Maybe we lose early, or maybe Copley comes in and steps up? Who knows? I would easily say this, if Holts gets us to another Cup or even Cup final, just go ahead and give him the "Retire as a Cap" deal and call it good. But if bad Holtby appears for a long stretch this year or in the playoffs, then its a tougher decision to make, no?

 

[HTFN]

I tend to agree on both counts, but thats why I said "depending on how this year plays out". Lets be reality, Holtby has been a very streaky, hot cold goalie lately (for a year at least). He was benched last year for 1/4 plus of the season and the start of the playoffs. He got hot in the playoffs, but what if he goes cold streaky Loltby in the playoffs this year? Maybe we lose early, or maybe Copley comes in and steps up? Who knows? I would easily say this, if Holts gets us to another Cup or even Cup final, just go ahead and give him the "Retire as a Cap" deal and call it good. But if bad Holtby appears for a long stretch this year or in the playoffs, then its a tougher decision to make, no?

That has been every elite goalie at some time or another, Holtby's still got a better resume and pedigree than the majority of his replacement options.

 

[kicksavedave]

That has been every elite goalie at some time or another, Holtby's still got a better resume and pedigree than the majority of his replacement options.

Well of course he does, but he also carries a $5M salary for the next few years and I doubt any extension for him would be cheaper. This is not about being dissatisfied with Holby, its purely about where to spend the money if other things become a crunch.

 

[g00n]

So, last night I'm looking for some info on a player (Athanasiou). I type the name into HF search and the first thing that pops up is this thread but from November 2017. I couldn't help myself and ended up reading a few (dozen) pages.

This place was DARK last November. Here are a few observations from November gone by.

-Did I mention it was dark in here? Like, pitch black.
-We were giving Connolly away for ANYTHING. 7th round pick, Subway sandwich card, whatever.
-Nobody was talking about Tom Wilson. There was a grand total of ~1 post about him.
-We all disliked Tyler Graovac but for ONE poster. Tyler really brought us all together. Almost all.
-We talked at length about pairing Ovechkin with Eller and consensus was great idea.

You know the one post about Wilson? Came from twabby:



Let it ride, indeed.

Player Discussion - Tom Wilson - Part 1

 

[txpd]

I tend to agree on both counts, but thats why I said "depending on how this year plays out". Lets be reality, Holtby has been a very streaky, hot cold goalie lately (for a year at least). He was benched last year for 1/4 plus of the season and the start of the playoffs. He got hot in the playoffs, but what if he goes cold streaky Loltby in the playoffs this year? Maybe we lose early, or maybe Copley comes in and steps up? Who knows? I would easily say this, if Holts gets us to another Cup or even Cup final, just go ahead and give him the "Retire as a Cap" deal and call it good. But if bad Holtby appears for a long stretch this year or in the playoffs, then its a tougher decision to make, no?

If Holtby goes cold in the playoffs, like when other primary players go cold, they will probably lose. Holtby has an exceptional post season track record. Who would you rather have? If you could have anyone? I recent years who has been better in the playoffs? Looking at the good teams. TB got let down by their goaltending in recent playoffs. The Pens goaltending needs no introduction. Rask? no. Andersen?

I don't see anyone I would rather have.

 

[g00n]

Definitely not. I go back and forth on whether or not they should re-sign Holtby in two years but trading him after this season is a really bad idea. You keep this team together as long as possible to win more Cups while you still have Ovechkin and Backstrom playing at elite levels. Holtby is a Vezina winner and a Cup champion and it looks like his bad calendar year of 2017-18 is behind him. He's a hell of a lot more valuable than incrementally better players in the bottom six or however else you'd use his salary and it's not like Samsonov has been lighting the AHL up for 2-3 years and is clearly ready for more responsibility.

I just want to remind everyone that this team has won the division three years in a row along with two Presidents Trophies, one Stanley Cup, and they're in first in their division yet again this year. The point of building a team is to be this good - why the strong desire to mess with a great thing? Why the proposals to bring in big name UFAs? Chemistry is a real thing and this team has it.

Because there are a few people who are fans of certain players so every now and then they have to make the case for grabbing those players, come hell or high water. The other one who loves Panarin hasn't shown up yet. I think they were talking about paying him more than Ovechkin at one point in the past.

 

[kicksavedave]

If Holtby goes cold in the playoffs, like when other primary players go cold, they will probably lose. Holtby has an exceptional post season track record. Who would you rather have? If you could have anyone? I recent years who has been better in the playoffs? Looking at the good teams. TB got let down by their goaltending in recent playoffs. The Pens goaltending needs no introduction. Rask? no. Andersen?

I don't see anyone I would rather have.

The question isn't so much who would you rather have play goalie this year for us, no duh its Holtby. You're right, I wouldn't choose any other vet over Holtby but thats not what I'm proposing. But the question is, do we resign him when this deal runs out and risk losing Samsonov, or do we protect Samsonov and risk losing Holtby, and this is in two full offseasons from now. No, there's no other vets I'd rather have right now, but thats not the question at hand. The question is, knowing the ED is coming, and Holtby will of course have 1 or 2 more years on his current contract to continue his success or become more unpredictable, do we let him move on and go with our own young tandem, Cops and Sams? The salary cap will have something to do with it, but I am saying I think his own play will determine how untouchable, how un-moveable, he is to us then. Plus of course the play of our younger guys.

 

[maacoshark]

Plus/minus is too basic. It's not very useful. We are talking about more advanced stats.

Actually most advanced stats should be thrown out. I can't believe that people live and die by advanced stats.

 

[Langway]

Samsonov is going to have to do a hell of a lot to make him a palatable alternative to retaining Holtby. Holtby may need to take something of a discount, on term if not also AAV, but it's hard to fathom willingly wanting to go with Copley-Samsonov after next season. Samsonov maybe has the tools but he's going to develop considerably to force the matter.

It's easier to imagine them wanting or needing to trade Niskanen or Eller if need be when the time comes. Oshie could be another consideration but seems a bit less likely as an initial cap saving move (even if it may be the most wise due to remaining term). I don't tend to think Backstrom's next contract will break the bank. Swedes tend to have a strong loyalty factor. Ovechkin's next deal might cost them but hopefully he's also willing to take something more team-friendly to have a better chance to win.

In the short-term, getting Vrana locked in to a good number is important. Everything else is pretty secondary, though I could see them extending Copley early if he keeps getting Ws.

 

[maacoshark]

Oshie

Oshie isn't playing right now.

 

[maacoshark]

All this talk about adding big names who will command top dollar, and all this talk about the best way to fill out the bottom six, who to keep, who to dump, all while up against the cap. Good conversations. But not one mention of the one area where I think we can actually see the most savings, AND alleviate the expansion draft issues - Goalie. Holtby won us a Cup, so did everyone else we're talking about here. But Copley has shown to be not only a competent backup, but a solid spot starter for more than the occasional 2nd half of a back to back. Holts will make $5M for the next two years. Samsonov should be ready to make the jump by then, and we risk losing him no matter what.

I'd seriously look to move Holts after this season ends (depending on HOW it ends) to free up some space to keep the rest of the bottom six core and/or add some talent up top. After this season, I would be willing to roll the dice with Copley and Sams in net, for great caps savings to spend on the ice. Thoughts?

You are putting alot if stock in a player that has played in a grand total of 12 NHL games. And Samsonov doesnt look close to being ready for the NHL.

 

[maacoshark]

Because he's not very good, he hasn't been good all season, and there are forwards that are better than him.

Stephenson is one of the few defensively responsible players we have. Benching him for another offense only player would be stupid.
No we dont gave other forwards that are better.

 

[kicksavedave]

You are putting alot if stock in a player that has played in a grand total of 12 NHL games. And Samsonov doesnt look close to being ready for the NHL.

I'm saying it should be considered in two full years, not today. A LOT can and will change between now and then. Including Holtby of then could be permanently LOLtby.

Its pretty boring after a solid win, being in first place, and defending champs... we gotta make up scenarios, if for nothing else than to shoot them down.

Keeping in mind, we risk losing Holts or Sams in the ED which is really what this discussion boils down to.

 

[txpd]

The question isn't so much who would you rather have play goalie this year for us, no duh its Holtby. You're right, I wouldn't choose any other vet over Holtby but thats not what I'm proposing. But the question is, do we resign him when this deal runs out and risk losing Samsonov, or do we protect Samsonov and risk losing Holtby, and this is in two full offseasons from now..

My view on Samansov is that until he shows otherwise he is the next goalie in a line of good goalies drafted reasonably highly. Varlamov, Neuvirth, Holtby, and Grubauer. Would you let Holtby go for the young Varly? I wouldn't unless he lost his game. If he was playing at Holtby norms, I would use Samsanov just like Grubauer was used. Exactly the same. If Samsanov plays Holtby out of the net, then deal with Holtby then.

Some thought Samsanov should be in the NHL playing now. I recall many wanting him to play instead of Copley on the recent road trip. His performance isn't as good as Vanecek who we know isn't an NHL goalie.

 

[txpd]

Oshie isn't playing right now.

Oshie is playing tomorrow. When 18 is getting scratched. If Oshie doesn't play, Stephenson plays.

 

[Carlzner]

Oshie is playing tomorrow. When 18 is getting scratched. If Oshie doesn't play, Stephenson plays.

Pretty sure Izzy already tweeted the likely lines with 65 scratched

 

[kicksavedave]

My view on Samansov is that until he shows otherwise he is the next goalie in a line of good goalies drafted reasonably highly. Varlamov, Neuvirth, Holtby, and Grubauer. Would you let Holtby go for the young Varly? I wouldn't unless he lost his game. If he was playing at Holtby norms, I would use Samsanov just like Grubauer was used. Exactly the same. If Samsanov plays Holtby out of the net, then deal with Holtby then.

Some thought Samsanov should be in the NHL playing now. I recall many wanting him to play instead of Copley on the recent road trip. His performance isn't as good as Vanecek who we know isn't an NHL goalie.

Lets just table the issue for two years then and see where everyone shakes out, mmkay? ED is two full offseasons from now, 2.5 years of play for things to change.

Next topic?

 

[txpd]

I'm saying it should be considered in two full years, not today. A LOT can and will change between now and then. Including Holtby of then could be permanently LOLtby.

Common sense. If Holtby stinks when his contract is up, like Alzner he is gone. That's easy. You seem to be saying that Holtby at career norms is a player you would replace with Samsanov. If that is what you are suggesting, I just say an easy no.