Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2018-19 We Are The Champions Edition - Pt. 5

[maacoshark]

Karlsson is better defensively than Niskanen simply by virtue of the puck being in our zone less. He probably doesn't PK as well but good PKing defensemen are not exactly rare. Karlsson level defensemen are.

Yes of course I'm willing to pay Panarin more than anyone. That's just how the cap works. I'm not going to hold on to some weird principle where all my contracts are based on what the cap was like 10 years ago. Panarin wouldn't be 4th 5th or 6th banana here. Panarin is easily one of the most dynamic players in the league. On par with Kuznetsov.With Panarin we basically have two first lines.

And with Karlsson, two first pairings as well.

Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Wilson
Panarin - Backstrom - Vrana

Orlov-Karlsson
Kempny-Carlson

That's a brilliant top 6/top 4, all without sacrificing too much depth.

Karlsson is better defensively than Niskanen? Everyone here knows I am not a Niskanen fan but I would never say Karlsson was better than him defensively.

 

[maacoshark]

Of course there is value in the defensive game. Preventing a goal is the same arithmetically as scoring one.

It's just simple math though. If Karlsson tilts the o/d zone at 60/40 while Niskanen keeps it 50/50, Niskanen would have to be significantly better at defense to make it even. That's not even counting the goal scoring opportunities Karlsson creates.

And I agree, GMBM won't do this. He doesn't really make huge moves. He makes subtle and solid ones.
I'm just spitballing because there's no game tonight.

You are basically talking about plus/ minus

 

[895]

You are basically talking about plus/ minus

No.

 

[maacoshark]

Bura on nacho duty? I'd bench 18 before 65 but 65 has been pretty putrid.

Why would you bench Stephenson? He us too valuable defensively. Right now we only have 2 legitimate defensive forwards. Backstrom and Stephenson.

 

[maacoshark]

No.

You are talking about the difference between their offense and defense. You say Niskanen is 50/50 and Karlsson 60/40. Plus/ minuys pretty much does the same thing. I disagree with your assessment in Karlsson though.

 

[895]

You are talking about the difference between their offense and defense. You say Niskanen is 50/50 and Karlsson 60/40. Plus/ minuys pretty much does the same thing. I disagree with your assessment in Karlsson though.

Plus/minus is too basic. It's not very useful. We are talking about more advanced stats.

 

[txpd]

You still don't see it. Lets try one more. You think either Karlsson or Panarin sign up to be other than the lead, go to guy player? The idea that Panarin is going to sign up to be the 3rd shooting option on the pp and have to take the beating in front of the net to get that doesn't make sense. Karlsson is going to have options and isn't going to take one where he isn't on the first pp unit.

 

[traparatus]

So, last night I'm looking for some info on a player (Athanasiou). I type the name into HF search and the first thing that pops up is this thread but from November 2017. I couldn't help myself and ended up reading a few (dozen) pages.

This place was DARK last November. Here are a few observations from November gone by.

-Did I mention it was dark in here? Like, pitch black.
-We were giving Connolly away for ANYTHING. 7th round pick, Subway sandwich card, whatever.
-Nobody was talking about Tom Wilson. There was a grand total of ~1 post about him.
-We all disliked Tyler Graovac but for ONE poster. Tyler really brought us all together. Almost all.
-We talked at length about pairing Ovechkin with Eller and consensus was great idea.

You know the one post about Wilson? Came from twabby:

I’m cool with giving 8-19-43 an extended shot, rather than assuming they are just a temporary thing. Over a few years they have put up very good numbers. Let it ride.

Let it ride, indeed.

 

[txpd]

Plus/minus is too basic. It's not very useful. We are talking about more advanced stats.

At even strength Niskanen has more points than Karlsson. So does Orlov for that matter. Kempny in 6 fewer games has the same number of even strength points as Karlsson.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Why would you bench Stephenson? He us too valuable defensively. Right now we only have 2 legitimate defensive forwards. Backstrom and Stephenson.

Because he's not very good, he hasn't been good all season, and there are forwards that are better than him.

 

[txpd]

Why would you bench Stephenson? He us too valuable defensively. Right now we only have 2 legitimate defensive forwards. Backstrom and Stephenson.

Oshie

 

[895]

You still don't see it. Lets try one more. You think either Karlsson or Panarin sign up to be other than the lead, go to guy player? The idea that Panarin is going to sign up to be the 3rd shooting option on the pp and have to take the beating in front of the net to get that doesn't make sense. Karlsson is going to have options and isn't going to take one where he isn't on the first pp unit.

Yes I do.

I think hockey players care about winning, money and lifestyle much more than they care about whether they are the 1st or 3rd best player on the team. Has anyone ever complained that their GM went out to acquire star linemates for them?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Why exactly is Panarin as an UFA a good idea here with the established salary structure in DC?

Seems like an expensive luxury add, not a particularly smart one.

 

[txpd]

Yes I do.

I think hockey players care about winning, money and lifestyle much more than they care about whether they are the 1st or 3rd best player on the team. Has anyone ever complained that their GM went out to acquire star linemates for them?

Sure. All the time. Example. Shattenkirk took Carlson's pp ice. Dumb. Messed the team up. Pissed of Carlson and Schmidt and any of their friends.

Panarin is a pass first player. Backstrom and Kuznetsov are the primary puck carriers on the top 2 lines and the Caps have no spot on their pp for a right shooting pass first player.

 

[895]

Why exactly is Panarin as an UFA a good idea here with the established salary structure in DC?

Seems like an expensive luxury add, not a particularly smart one.

I don't think the established salary structure matters.

Ovechkin and Backstrom signed a decade ago. It would be weird to not adjust the way we think about contracts and factor in the cap inflation.

It's a luxury add for now. But as Ovechkin and Backstrom decline, I expect it won't be.

Players as good as Panarin rarely hit UFA. And to reiterate, we have 0 top six forward prospects.

 

[895]

Sure. All the time. Example. Shattenkirk took Carlson's pp ice. Dumb. Messed the team up. Pissed of Carlson and Schmidt and any of their friends.

Panarin is a pass first player. Backstrom and Kuznetsov are the primary puck carriers on the top 2 lines and the Caps have no spot on their pp for a right shooting pass first player.

No one is taking Carlson's PP or ice time. Carlson > Karlsson on the PP.

Panarin is just as good of a passer as he is a scorer.

Also, we could have an actual PP2, not what we have now, which is random guys who aren't good enough for PP1.

 

[Hivemind]

Do you think that Donskoi will be any cheaper than Connolly? I like the player. I think so do the Sharks.

If Connolly maintains his current pace, yes. Assuming Connolly goes for the highest bidder, he could be around $4.5M, while I'd guess Donskoi earns something like $3M. Not saying they should tunnel vision in on Donskoi as "the answer," but he's a guy I would keep on my radar as a possible replacement.

 

[txpd]

No one is taking Carlson's PP or ice time. Carlson > Karlsson on the PP.

Panarin is just as good of a passer as he is a scorer.

Also, we could have an actual PP2, not what we have now, which is random guys who aren't good enough for PP1.

Karlsson isn't going to sign a contract where he isn't on the pp1. The Capitals don't use a pp2 for a reason. They never have. No matter who they have on pp2 the drop off is too great because pp1 is the best pp in the league over the last 5 years or more.

 

[Corby78]

No one is taking Carlson's PP or ice time. Carlson > Karlsson on the PP.

Panarin is just as good of a passer as he is a scorer.

Also, we could have an actual PP2, not what we have now, which is random guys who aren't good enough for PP1.

This right here is a reason why I would seriously consider it. If the PP continues to be a stagnant mess injecting fresh blood may be needed. Also, 5v5 I cant see why replacing Bura with Panarin wouldn't be a positive. With as well as our 4th line has been playing, we get Oshie/Wilson back we have 4 serious lines to roll out.

 

[kicksavedave]

All this talk about adding big names who will command top dollar, and all this talk about the best way to fill out the bottom six, who to keep, who to dump, all while up against the cap. Good conversations. But not one mention of the one area where I think we can actually see the most savings, AND alleviate the expansion draft issues - Goalie. Holtby won us a Cup, so did everyone else we're talking about here. But Copley has shown to be not only a competent backup, but a solid spot starter for more than the occasional 2nd half of a back to back. Holts will make $5M for the next two years. Samsonov should be ready to make the jump by then, and we risk losing him no matter what.

I'd seriously look to move Holts after this season ends (depending on HOW it ends) to free up some space to keep the rest of the bottom six core and/or add some talent up top. After this season, I would be willing to roll the dice with Copley and Sams in net, for great caps savings to spend on the ice. Thoughts?

 

[Silky mitts]

Year after year the Caps have kept their guys and resisted wholesale changes even when they shat the bed in the playoffs. I think it is extremely likely they bring back as many people as possible which is everyone but Burakowsky and use whatever is leftover for a potential 4C that can kill penalties.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

All this talk about adding big names who will command top dollar, and all this talk about the best way to fill out the bottom six, who to keep, who to dump, all while up against the cap. Good conversations. But not one mention of the one area where I think we can actually see the most savings, AND alleviate the expansion draft issues - Goalie. Holtby won us a Cup, so did everyone else we're talking about here. But Copley has shown to be not only a competent backup, but a solid spot starter for more than the occasional 2nd half of a back to back. Holts will make $5M for the next two years. Samsonov should be ready to make the jump by then, and we risk losing him no matter what.

I'd seriously look to move Holts after this season ends (depending on HOW it ends) to free up some space to keep the rest of the bottom six core and/or add some talent up top. After this season, I would be willing to roll the dice with Copley and Sams in net, for great caps savings to spend on the ice. Thoughts?

Thats a GIANT roll of the dice....

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don't think the established salary structure matters.

Ovechkin and Backstrom signed a decade ago. It would be weird to not adjust the way we think about contracts and factor in the cap inflation.

It's a luxury add for now. But as Ovechkin and Backstrom decline, I expect it won't be.

Players as good as Panarin rarely hit UFA. And to reiterate, we have 0 top six forward prospects.

That they signed long ago doesn’t matter. That both are coming up and high $ matters as do the other big contracts coming.

I’d pay Panarin Kuzy $ let’s call it $8 per max. Beyond that it’s not smart for the Caps IMO. Love the idea to plan for Ovy Backy dropoff or leaving, but not the right move this summer IMO. I also doubt he’s being sold on being on PP2.

 

[traparatus]

All this talk about adding big names who will command top dollar, and all this talk about the best way to fill out the bottom six, who to keep, who to dump, all while up against the cap. Good conversations. But not one mention of the one area where I think we can actually see the most savings, AND alleviate the expansion draft issues - Goalie. Holtby won us a Cup, so did everyone else we're talking about here. But Copley has shown to be not only a competent backup, but a solid spot starter for more than the occasional 2nd half of a back to back. Holts will make $5M for the next two years. Samsonov should be ready to make the jump by then, and we risk losing him no matter what.

I'd seriously look to move Holts after this season ends (depending on HOW it ends) to free up some space to keep the rest of the bottom six core and/or add some talent up top. After this season, I would be willing to roll the dice with Copley and Sams in net, for great caps savings to spend on the ice. Thoughts?

I'm more sure about what will happen with goaltending in the next 2 season that anything else. Nothing. Holtby will play out his contract. Samsonov will continue to play in Hershey at least this season.

 

[traparatus]

I agree with folks who preach caution regarding acquiring star players without having a spot to play them to their strength. Panarin is not going to play on the third line with a couple of jabronis. Look at what happened with Pens and Brassard. They wasted a whole pile of resources, don't have quality ice time or quality linemates for the guy. Could have just kept Bonino and saved some cap space and picks.

More talent is not always the answer. Players have to have an opportunity to play to their strength.

Also, say you make cap room and sign Panarin for $9.5m long term, Kucherov money. How much are you paying Backstrom a year later? Hey, Nick. We know you've been on a discount contract for your whole career but would you mind keeping it that way so that we can pay a whole pile of money to Panarin? Tough sell.