Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2018-19 We Are The Champions Edition - Pt. 3

[Hivemind]

Seriously tho, that license plate smells a lot like "I lost a bet" to me.

 

[VaCaps Fan]

I think it’s sarcastic?

 

[Silky mitts]

Flower was one of the best Capitals players during the finals.

About to get a Capitals LETANG plate

 

[HTFN]

About to get a Capitals LETANG plate

Hope your car's not an automatic, because the D will be gone.

 

[Silky mitts]

Hope your car's not an automatic, because the D will be gone.

Definitely a stick shift because if anyone passes me I'll throw my stick at them

 

[Sam Spade]

Flower was one of the best Capitals players during the finals.

My "SBISA18" is in the mail.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Don't. That was not a no. Based on his play remaining at current career norms, I would do a 7 year if the option was letting a Vezina finalist level goaltender walk.

Yea, I do dismiss the final 2 years. If the first 5 years give them a chance at another cup or two, I have no problem dealing with any problems arising from the final 2 years when the time comes. We have been thru enough Varlys and Neuvirths to trust that Samsanov is a Holtby.

Maclellan dealt with Oprik's contract and if Holtby's became a drag on the team, I am confident that he would figure it out.

Would be a huge mistake. Does history teach you nothing about aging netminders at high $?

 

[txpd]

Would be a huge mistake. Does history teach you nothing about aging netminders at high $?

Kolzig was great the season before the team made the playoffs. He was 37 then as I recall and had an injury history to work thru. Either you believe the quality of goaltending and the leadership provided by that person is key or you don't. The Detroit philosophy was that anyone decent was good enough. If you believe that, ok. Me? I think Holtby is a key to the fabric of the team. He is key to them winning. I didn't think he could be replaced by Grubauer and I am skeptical that he can be replaced by Samsanov.

Again, I am willing to deal with the high dollar aging goaltender in order to keep the prime age elite goaltender. You aren't. I am willing to deal with aging Carlson so to keep the prime career Carlson. Same Same

 

[Ridley Simon]

Kolzig was great the season before the team made the playoffs. He was 37 then as I recall and had an injury history to work thru. Either you believe the quality of goaltending and the leadership provided by that person is key or you don't. The Detroit philosophy was that anyone decent was good enough. If you believe that, ok. Me? I think Holtby is a key to the fabric of the team. He is key to them winning. I didn't think he could be replaced by Grubauer and I am skeptical that he can be replaced by Samsanov.

Again, I am willing to deal with the high dollar aging goaltender in order to keep the prime age elite goaltender. You aren't. I am willing to deal with aging Carlson so to keep the prime career Carlson. Same Same

Can’t say Carlson is a good example. Goalies are weird cats. We saw it last year. They are far more easily off their game than other positions, as it’s far more of a mental spot.

Holtby sucks one of these 2 next seasons? Even if they win another cup....hard to tie yourself to an every other season G at 8-9m a year. I wouldn’t do it.

And I love Holtby.

 

[txpd]

Can’t say Carlson is a good example. Goalies are weird cats. We saw it last year. They are far more easily off their game than other positions, as it’s far more of a mental spot.

Holtby sucks one of these 2 next seasons? Even if they win another cup....hard to tie yourself to an every other season G at 8-9m a year. I wouldn’t do it.

And I love Holtby.

If Holtby sucks another regular season, as this past one, and they win another cup, as this past one, I would do what I had to do to keep him. They don't win that cup with any of the goalies they beat, who are all pretty good.

 

[Silky mitts]

It is difficult for me to untangle when Holtby was playing well last year and the defense was playing well. Extremely strong efforts defensively game 6 vs Pens, game 6 vs Tampa, and game 2 vs Vegas.

 

[Melkor]

Holtby's been terrible last year till the playoffs but he is a very good goalie career-wise both in a regular season games and in a postseason and there are not many who could be called like that. The main issue with him all the time was that he couldnt deliver that one last save that could turn all the momentum in a game/series in favor of his team altho his overall performance was way above average. He erased this concern this spring and summer. Also I don't believe in Samsonov. Hasnt shown anything to prove that he can be a #1 even in the KHL. Barring some Jake Allen-like meltdowns, Holtby should be the guy going forward for anything under 8M. Also don't see how he gets 8-9 for any term with the level of play he has shown last year. Even with the playoffs performance like that that's a 6M territory at best. He should return to his Vezina level consistency and show that he can handle the pressure in a postseason at least once more to have an argument for Lundqvist-like money.

 

[Sam Spade]

There is no way a smart organization gives a long term deal to any goalie over 30. Price’s contract, which kicks in THIS season, Lundqvist, they just cripple teams. And a trend I have noticed lately is that when goalies lose it they really lose it fast.

The Caps have, by all projections, a fantastic goalie waiting, as cut throat as it sounds you almost have to let Holtby walk if he wants a long term deal at 31.

I can’t wait to see the stupid money that gets thrown at Bobrovsky.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

We just won the cup and Holtby was a big part of it. But I've been on record and blasted for calling him a "system goalie". We will see his contract demands in a few years but over paying a goalie past his peak years is a ticket to salary cap hell

 

[Melkor]

There is no way a smart organization gives a long term deal to any goalie over 30. Price’s contract, which kicks in THIS season, Lundqvist, they just cripple teams. And a trend I have noticed lately is that when goalies lose it they really lose it fast.

The Caps have, by all projections, a fantastic goalie waiting, as cut throat as it sounds you almost have to let Holtby walk if he wants a long term deal at 31.

I can’t wait to see the stupid money that gets thrown at Bobrovsky.

Projections are worthless till they become reality. If Samsonov blows, its either Holtby or misery for the franchise. To get a real #1 (not Talbot, J.Allen or that kind but Jones, Quick, Schneider, Gibson) you have to waste very good assets that Caps cant afford to lose these days with their prospect system being very weak on offense.

Bobrovsky hasnt shown jack in the playoffs his whole life . Thats where you can say for sure that his next contract will be a mistake for his team.

 

[Silky mitts]

A lot can happen in the next 2 years but right now you’ve got a guy who has shown signs of decline whose contract comes up at an age when goalies generally decline, they’ve got one of the top 2 goalie prospects, and they’ve been almost as hesitant to pay or go long term on goalies as coaches.

 

[txpd]

A lot can happen in the next 2 years but right now you’ve got a guy who has shown signs of decline whose contract comes up at an age when goalies generally decline, they’ve got one of the top 2 goalie prospects, and they’ve been almost as hesitant to pay or go long term on goalies as coaches.

Signs of decline. He had a bad season after two great seasons but recovered for a great playoffs. Most players have a bad season. The playoffs convinced me that was all it was. Not decline. Goalies generally decline at 30?

 

[Silky mitts]

Signs of decline. He had a bad season after two great seasons but recovered for a great playoffs. Most players have a bad season. The playoffs convinced me that was all it was. Not decline. Goalies generally decline at 30?

He got outplayed in the playoffs the year before by Anderson and Fleury. Chased a .909 playoffs with a .907 regular season, then sat behind the best the Caps D has played for a 2 month span since the 80s.
Here are the 41 guys who started more games than Holtby has so far in his 20s.
Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com
To a man they decline 27-33.

 

[g00n]

He got outplayed in the playoffs the year before by Anderson and Fleury. Chased a .909 playoffs with a .907 regular season, then sat behind the best the Caps D has played for a 2 month span since the 80s.
Here are the 41 guys who started more games than Holtby has so far in his 20s.
Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com
To a man they decline 27-33.

How many of those goalies are over 33 and played in the modern era with modern equipment and team defenses, though? Half the players on that list were retired by 1995 or 1996.

Patrick Roy started going downhill in the mid-90s and then those factors probably helped him rebound and play at the highest level into his late 30s. Lundqvist is 35 and while his last 2 seasons are down slightly his sav% is really the same as what it was in his mid-20s. Luongo is 39 and just put up a .929 while staying steady throughout his 30s. MAF just had his best season ever at 33. Lehtonen has had a few mediocre years but just rebounded to his career sav% at 34.

So really, there aren't a lot of comparables or examples for this. Maybe we should be asking if Luongo can do it, why can't Holtby?

That said I'm not married to the guy. If he stinks long enough he can hit the bricks.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Isnt modern goalie equipment much smaller now??

 

[Silky mitts]

How many of those goalies are over 33 and played in the modern era with modern equipment and team defenses, though? Half the players on that list were retired by 1995 or 1996.

Patrick Roy started going downhill in the mid-90s and then those factors probably helped him rebound and play at the highest level into his late 30s. Lundqvist is 35 and while his last 2 seasons are down slightly his sav% is really the same as what it was in his mid-20s. Luongo is 39 and just put up a .929 while staying steady throughout his 30s. MAF just had his best season ever at 33. Lehtonen has had a few mediocre years but just rebounded to his career sav% at 34.

So really, there aren't a lot of comparables or examples for this. Maybe we should be asking if Luongo can do it, why can't Holtby?

That said I'm not married to the guy. If he stinks long enough he can hit the bricks.

Luongo 24-31 was a beast, Luongo 32-38 is an anchor of a contract. Lundqvist 33-35 is now an anchor of a contract. I’ve got no explanation for Fleury. When you fall off from a guy no longer a top 5 goalie the likelihood of making a difference vs a guy off the street is not that great. Like 35 year old Lundqvist stops .915 vs a replacement level guy at .904, you’re paying $8M extra for a guy who won’t impact most games. But Vasy almost beat the Caps on his bridge deal and then Holtby beat Tampa on his deal kept reasonable with the RFA years, top 5 goalies in their prime with loaded rosters.

 

[Marshall]

I think the Stanley Cup Champion Washington Capitals are in a luxurious position re: goatlending - they can stay with the current situation for a year (or even a year and a half) and let it play out. If Samsonov is as hoped, Holtby becomes a trade chip/rental/Caps' negotiating position becomes more advantageous. If not, re-sign the Cup winner. Dunno that there's a huge rush to do anything now.

 

[g00n]

Luongo 24-31 was a beast, Luongo 32-38 is an anchor of a contract. Lundqvist 33-35 is now an anchor of a contract. I’ve got no explanation for Fleury. When you fall off from a guy no longer a top 5 goalie the likelihood of making a difference vs a guy off the street is not that great. Like 35 year old Lundqvist stops .915 vs a replacement level guy at .904, you’re paying $8M extra for a guy who won’t impact most games. But Vasy almost beat the Caps on his bridge deal and then Holtby beat Tampa on his deal kept reasonable with the RFA years, top 5 goalies in their prime with loaded rosters.

You're talking about two different things. Bad contracts are bad contracts and that's not the same thing as goaltenders in this era turning into a pumpkin at 33 like you said. I'm not going to defend stupid GMs who throw way too much money at players and I didn't think that was the point of posting those stats.

Otherwise if you're arguing for some kind of perfect middle ground of reasonable spending and WAR values, everyone wants that.

 

[g00n]

Isnt modern goalie equipment much smaller now??

Slightly smaller compared to recent years, but the equipment blew up over the years which is one reason some of the guys from 30-40 years ago had numbers that would look bad today, and possible mean earlier decline in production. Just look at Roy's career numbers and note what happened in the mid-90s when the styles started changing and the equipment began to expand and improve.

Roy 86-87

Roy 1991-92:

Roy 1998:

I don't know if he plays as well for so long in those same pads/etc from 1986 or even 91.

 

[Silky mitts]

You're talking about two different things. Bad contracts are bad contracts and that's not the same thing as goaltenders in this era turning into a pumpkin at 33 like you said. I'm not going to defend stupid GMs who throw way too much money at players and I didn't think that was the point of posting those stats.

Otherwise if you're arguing for some kind of perfect middle ground of reasonable spending and WAR values, everyone wants that.

Guys get paid more for arbitration years and more still for UFA years, but the Caps model of drafting guys high almost every year and bridging guys until they found a guy who looked like a top 5 going into his prime has worked out well. Penguins just gave up a 2nd to move on from a 33 year old MAF, doesn’t look great right now but Murray did look better than Fleury vs Caps..