Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2018-19 We Are The Champions Edition - Pt. 3

[Ridley Simon]

I think everyone's minutes were way up due to our unheralded minute eater Niskanen missing an extended period of time early in the season. That's when Carlson's name really started entering Norris conversation because of the offensive production and the excessively high minutes. I think if you look at everyone in the first half of the season on the blueline and you're going to think their minutes were high. It skewed their numbers for the rest of the year.

Yes and No.

Orpik's were a full 2.5m less in playoffs. AND he was 3rd pair/D specialist. AND he was 37 (or something). With his skill set (or lack thereof), the reduced minutes are a far bigger deal for him, IMO.

Someone like Orlov can much more easily add 3-4min per game due to his style of play, skating, etc. Orpik....not so much, IMO.

 

[Kuz]

Looking forward, I worry about the long term plan for the Caps. I see us being in the same situation as Chicago in the future. A lot of money tied up in not a lot of guys long term. But it doesn't bother me now, just enjoying the ride.

I feel like they are in a pretty good place. Except RFAs next year they pretty much only loose depth players in DSP, Connoly and Orpik who they might be able to resign for a low cost. The questions is the RFAs, but for RFAs you can get value back. Will be interesting to see what Vrana and Burakovsky deliever and if one of them will breakout. The year after will be interesting with Holtby and Backström. Backström will be 32 at the time and it will be interesting to see how many years he want and how much cash he wants. Will Samsonov take Holtbys place or will Holtby still be the go to guy.

In reality the Caps dont have a lot of expensive signings to do. They can give a bridge deals to at least one of Vrana and Burakovsky. Holtby and Backström are already quite expensive. Backström might get a raise if he continues to be a PPG player while Holtby is unlikely to get a raise and the Capitals might have decided to go for Samsonov by that time. The year after Ovis contract ends and he hopefully demands less than his current contract and he will be 35 when the season ends(soon to be 36 that season) and Niskanen who also will be older so most likely wont cost more. So I dont really see that the Caps will need to give up some of the best players like Hawks had to.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Winning 3 cups like the Hawks would be so bad

 

[txpd]

I feel like they are in a pretty good place. Except RFAs next year they pretty much only loose depth players in DSP, Connoly and Orpik who they might be able to resign for a low cost. The questions is the RFAs, but for RFAs you can get value back. Will be interesting to see what Vrana and Burakovsky deliever and if one of them will breakout. The year after will be interesting with Holtby and Backström. Backström will be 32 at the time and it will be interesting to see how many years he want and how much cash he wants. Will Samsonov take Holtbys place or will Holtby still be the go to guy.

In reality the Caps dont have a lot of expensive signings to do. They can give a bridge deals to at least one of Vrana and Burakovsky. Holtby and Backström are already quite expensive. Backström might get a raise if he continues to be a PPG player while Holtby is unlikely to get a raise and the Capitals might have decided to go for Samsonov by that time. The year after Ovis contract ends and he hopefully demands less than his current contract and he will be 35 when the season ends(soon to be 36 that season) and Niskanen who also will be older so most likely wont cost more. So I dont really see that the Caps will need to give up some of the best players like Hawks had to.

I think leaning toward the Caps ditching Holtby in favor of Samsanov is a big mistake. If Holtby remains Holtby, he goes nowhere.

 

[twabby]

Decided to post this here since a few hockey reporters are listed in the article. Mods feel free to move this to another thread is appropriate:

https://deadspin.com/the-athletic-fails-to-raid-the-washington-post-sports-d-1828532944

Kind of glad Isabelle and others like Steinberg are staying put.

 

[Hivemind]

The Athletic did pick up Tarik. I presume because it gets him off the Capitals beat and back into sports he's more passionate about.


edit; Favorite quote from the article. Both bolded sections amuse me greatly, albeit for different reasons.

Even if it doesn’t hurt in the long run, though, a failure to establish itself in Washington, D.C.—home to the Stanley Cup champions; one of the best players in baseball; a football team that’s a constant source of fascination even, and probably thanks to, its clownishness; the Wizards, who exist; and the Georgetown Hoyas, who also exist—would be, if nothing else, a bit of an embarrassment for a company that sees itself, or at least wants to be seen, as the Spotify or Netflix of sports media.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Winning 3 cups like the Hawks would be so bad

Seriously....I’d happily watch them suck for a while after 2 more Cups.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think leaning toward the Caps ditching Holtby in favor of Samsanov is a big mistake. If Holtby remains Holtby, he goes nowhere.

You willing to give Holtby a Lundqvist-type deal? Because if he’s still in top form, he’ll be a year younger than Hank when he signed his deal. I hope he’s willing to take 5 years then because that would be my max offer.

I also don’t think it’s a forgone conclusion that Backstrom will be back either.

 

[Holtbyisms]

Yes and No.

Orpik's were a full 2.5m less in playoffs. AND he was 3rd pair/D specialist. AND he was 37 (or something). With his skill set (or lack thereof), the reduced minutes are a far bigger deal for him, IMO.

Someone like Orlov can much more easily add 3-4min per game due to his style of play, skating, etc. Orpik....not so much, IMO.

While I agree I'd much rather have Orlov eat minutes than Orpik in my example that simply doesn't work. Niskanen and Orlov are almost always on the ice together. Unless you can clone Orlov he can't play both LD and RD. Someone from the third pairing had to have their minutes increased and unfortunately at that time there was no Kempny and Djoos and Bowey were both sketchy. The only reasonable solution was to pile as much on Carlson as he could take and fill in the rest out with Orpik.

 

[txpd]

You willing to give Holtby a Lundqvist-type deal? Because if he’s still in top form, he’ll be a year younger than Hank when he signed his deal. I hope he’s willing to take 5 years then because that would be my max offer.

I also don’t think it’s a forgone conclusion that Backstrom will be back either.

I think that if the performance of both players continue at career norms that both stay. Hockey teams are groups of people. More than numbers need to be accounted for.

You can make a good case that Holtby is the best playoff goalie of his generation. The Cup solidifies him. If he remains Vezina finalist material and plays to his standards in the playoffs, you don't let him walk in his prime for an unproven player.

Backstrom is in a lot of ways the heart and soul of the group and has been. He is more than just Ov's wingman.

The reason you have a Samsanov is if Holtby gets hurt and misses a lot of games and/or has his game damaged as a result. One kick to the head is all that would take. But its unlikely that Samsanov is going to be near as good as Holtby. Few will be.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think that if the performance of both players continue at career norms that both stay. Hockey teams are groups of people. More than numbers need to be accounted for.

You can make a good case that Holtby is the best playoff goalie of his generation. The Cup solidifies him. If he remains Vezina finalist material and plays to his standards in the playoffs, you don't let him walk in his prime for an unproven player.

Backstrom is in a lot of ways the heart and soul of the group and has been. He is more than just Ov's wingman.

The reason you have a Samsanov is if Holtby gets hurt and misses a lot of games and/or has his game damaged as a result. One kick to the head is all that would take. But its unlikely that Samsanov is going to be near as good as Holtby. Few will be.

You’re way higher on Holtby than I am as far as his “playoff legend” goes. He had great early round stats with little real success before this year when he was benched then came in with no pressure. Many would say he didn’t come up big for the last few years in the biggest moments prior to last season.

Next playoffs will be telling for him IMO, because the repeat pressure will be squarely on his shoulders this time.

I ask again because you keep dodging the question. If Holtby demands a Lundqvist-type deal at 31, you’re happy to give that? If so, that signifies the downward spiral people are talking about with Chicago IMO. If he’s ok with 5 years or less and his game is still elite I’m happy to keep him. Anything longer is a mistake in today’s cap world for a guy who will have his kind of mileage by then.

Samsonov has 2 years to prove himself. If he doesn’t, the Caps could very well cave to 70’s demands due to desperation.

Lots can happen in the next 2-3 years with 70, 19, and even 8. Don’t be locked into who you think is important because unless you’re in the room.....

 

[txpd]

You’re way higher on Holtby than I am as far as his “playoff legend” goes. He had great early round stats with little real success before this year when he was benched then came in with no pressure. Many would say he didn’t come up big for a few years in the biggest moments.

Next playoffs will be telling for him IMO, because the repeat pressure will be squarely on his shoulders this time.

I ask again because you keep dodging the question. If Holtby demands a Lundqvist-type deal at 31, you’re happy to give that? If so, that signifies the downward spiral people are talking about with Chicago IMO. If he’s ok with 5 years or less and his game is still elite I’m happy to keep him. Anything longer is a mistake in today’s cap world for a guy who will have his kind of mileage by then.

Samsonov has 2 years to prove himself. If he doesn’t, the Caps could very well cave to his demands due to desperation.

Lots can happen in the next 2-3 years with 70, 19, and even 8. Don’t be locked into who you think is important because unless you’re in the room.....

For all

A 7 year deal at 31? Depends if his quality of game and health are at career norms I am not sure how the final 2 years make a difference. Not enough of a difference to drastically change the quality of goaltending and leadership for the first 3 or 4 years.

Yes, lots can happen. They can be injured. Their game's can drastically drop off. I recognize that. All of what I have said has been qualified that the performance is at career norms.

Lets be honest here. Many didn't want to sign Carlson because his contract year was so good. Same people will argue the same if the contract year has a fall off.

What you are asking me to do is project what I would do when the time to make contract decisions arrives without knowing the conditions.

 

[Langway]

I also don’t think it’s a forgone conclusion that Backstrom will be back either.

I'd be surprised if he wasn't. He'll have put in 13 seasons by then but it seems like Swedes tend to be lifers by that point so I suspect they'll find something that works to keep him in more of a clear 2C role. Something like five years maybe. I could see it if they had an heir apparent he's blocking but that seems increasingly unlikely. Not that they should be urgently looking for one or to cut cap there but absent a real step back in skating or a severe injury Backstrom should be able to stay at a high level for some time thanks to his IQ/experience.

Ideally over time you'd think Kempny may be sacrificed should Alexeyev or Johansen supplant him, though at $2.5M he's still workable on the third pair. Oshie could be another cap saver but likely not until they have far better quality forwards battling him. More than anything they're going to need top nine quality wingers on ELCs and it's sort of a stretch to suggest anyone in-house fits that bill at a high level after Vrana this season. It's why this past draft was so frustrating from a future value standpoint, even if I do like the two D selected in isolation. It's the clear organizational area of need in the near-term. They will be other Connolly types available in UFA and they do have an abundance of more traditional bottom six type winger prospects but they need to shoot for some upside, esp. to help offset age-related decline in some instances.

Re: Holtby, five years also seems adequate here with them revisiting who goes once/if Samsonov is fully ready. If he wants seven then he'd have to come down on AAV and have weaker no-trade protection. To me, 8/19 have to be considered lifers barring a significant dropoff in play and some sort of break with mgmt ala Alfredsson. It's hard to see Leonsis allowing that relationship to sour, though.

 

[um]

I think there's a good chance Niskanen will be moved to keep Backstrom and Holtby given our depth of defensive prospects.

 

[Hivemind]

I am perfectly fine with the team walking away from Holtby after this contract expires. Longterm goalie contracts very rarely work out, and this is doubly true for older goalies. Learn from the mistakes of Price, Lundqvist, Schneider, Crawford, Fleury, Luongo, Ward, and Howard.

Hopefully Samsonov lives up to the hype and will be ready.

 

[Silky mitts]

Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com
Only 7 goalies in 13 seasons have started 60+ since the lockout with a save % above 0.920 at 31 or older
since the lockout which is what Holtby would be after his deal runs out.
Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com
12 goalies since the lockout started 8 games or more in the playoffs with a save % 0.920 or greater 31 or older with 2 Cup winners in Thomas and Osgood.

Maybe Holtby will age well and there are examples of older goalies who could step it up in the playoffs like a 42 year old Hasek but goalies with high usage in their 20s pretty consistently fall off in their age 27-33 season.
Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'd be surprised if he wasn't. He'll have put in 13 seasons by then but it seems like Swedes tend to be lifers by that point so I suspect they'll find something that works to keep him in more of a clear 2C role. Something like five years maybe. I could see it if they had an heir apparent he's blocking but that seems increasingly unlikely. Not that they should be urgently looking for one or to cut cap there but absent a real step back in skating or a severe injury Backstrom should be able to stay at a high level for some time thanks to his IQ/experience.

Ideally over time you'd think Kempny may be sacrificed should Alexeyev or Johansen supplant him, though at $2.5M he's still workable on the third pair. Oshie could be another cap saver but likely not until they have far better quality forwards battling him. More than anything they're going to need top nine quality wingers on ELCs and it's sort of a stretch to suggest anyone in-house fits that bill at a high level after Vrana this season. It's why this past draft was so frustrating from a future value standpoint, even if I do like the two D selected in isolation. It's the clear organizational area of need in the near-term. They will be other Connolly types available in UFA and they do have an abundance of more traditional bottom six type winger prospects but they need to shoot for some upside, esp. to help offset age-related decline in some instances.

Re: Holtby, five years also seems adequate here with them revisiting who goes once/if Samsonov is fully ready. If he wants seven then he'd have to come down on AAV and have weaker no-trade protection. To me, 8/19 have to be considered lifers barring a significant dropoff in play and some sort of break with mgmt ala Alfredsson. It's hard to see Leonsis allowing that relationship to sour, though.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d be surprised if 19 (or 70] left too. I expect him back today, but it’s not cut and dried IMO. 2 years is also a long time and his skating and how he ages concerns me. It’s not like he has a gym rat reputation.

On Holtby, if he wants 7 years + big $ and he’s still around Vezina-level, why does he come off term or value in his demands? That’s my fear. 5 years, assuming he’s still on his game I’m down with.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

For all

A 7 year deal at 31? Depends if his quality of game and health are at career norms I am not sure how the final 2 years make a difference. Not enough of a difference to drastically change the quality of goaltending and leadership for the first 3 or 4 years.

Yes, lots can happen. They can be injured. Their game's can drastically drop off. I recognize that. All of what I have said has been qualified that the performance is at career norms.

Lets be honest here. Many didn't want to sign Carlson because his contract year was so good. Same people will argue the same if the contract year has a fall off.

What you are asking me to do is project what I would do when the time to make contract decisions arrives without knowing the conditions.

Welcome to HF, where everyone makes predictions every day.

Don’t be afraid to commit to your position.

I’ll take your answer as a NO on a 7 year deal for 70 at age 31 until you state differently. I do love how you casually dismiss the last two years of a 7 year deal. Sure 2 years at (projecting) $8+ per is nothing...../eyeroll.

 

[txpd]

Welcome to HF, where everyone makes predictions every day.

Don’t be afraid to commit to your position.

I’ll take your answer as a NO on a 7 year deal for 70 at age 31 until you state differently. I do love how you casually dismiss the last two years of a 7 year deal. Sure 2 years at (projecting) $8+ per is nothing...../eyeroll.

Don't. That was not a no. Based on his play remaining at current career norms, I would do a 7 year if the option was letting a Vezina finalist level goaltender walk.

Yea, I do dismiss the final 2 years. If the first 5 years give them a chance at another cup or two, I have no problem dealing with any problems arising from the final 2 years when the time comes. We have been thru enough Varlys and Neuvirths to trust that Samsanov is a Holtby.

Maclellan dealt with Oprik's contract and if Holtby's became a drag on the team, I am confident that he would figure it out.

 

[Sam Spade]

No idea where to post this but seriously unless this guys name is “Fleury” what the hell?

 

[Holtbyisms]

View attachment 136037 No idea where to post this but seriously unless this guys name is “Fleury” what the hell?

Looks like somebody needs a good keying.

 

[Sam Spade]

Looks like somebody needs a good keying.

Or at least a stern talking to.

 

[txpd]

Looks like somebody needs a good keying.

or

Now I met an old friend
In the bar the other night
And he got a little drunk
And he wanted to fight
And he jumped up
And challenged every man in the room
And just about the time he got the words out
An 'ol boy jumped up and closed his mouth
And used his head for a mop
And his butt for a broom

It was an attitude adjustment
I guess it was his first time
An attitude adjustment
Now he understands just fine
He got bent out of shape
And he opened his mouth
And just one appointment
Straightened him right out
It was an attitude adjustment
Oh It'll work every time

 

[Marshall]

Kinda crazy the rookie camp is less than a month away. So this is what a short off season is like after a SCW.

I could get used to it.

 

[Hivemind]

View attachment 136037 No idea where to post this but seriously unless this guys name is “Fleury” what the hell?

Flower was one of the best Capitals players during the finals.