Can’t believe I’m going to indulge in this, but here we go (and I think my math is right, but I’m sure you guys will let me know where it isn’t)…
Excluding games in which the Caps have played, NHL teams are averaging 29.0 SOGA/G. Eastern Conference teams are averaging 29.7. Southeast Division teams (minus Washington) are allowing 30.7 (0.0048 more than the NE). Non-SED Eastern Conference teams are at 29.1, 29.2 if you take out games they’ve played against the Caps. So for a generic Eastern Conference team, they could reasonably expect to get ~1.5 more shots per game against a Southeast opponent than an ATL/NE team.
The Caps have played 17 games this season in the Southeast Division, 11 vs. the NE and 15 against the ATL. Based on average SOGA totals in non-Caps games, Average Team X would be expected to have 1271 shots on goal (the Caps actually have 1207, FWIW). Say the Caps were crammed into the Atlantic and had played 17 there, 11 vs. the SED and 15 vs. the NE. We’d expect Average Team X to have 1264 shots on goal. And if he was in the NE, w/ 15 against the ATL and 11 against the SED, it’d be 1271. In other words, the Caps – as a team – could be expected to have, at most, seven more shots on goal over the course of the season by virtue of being in the SED.
What about the goalies they’ve faced? The League average for ES SV% is .9202 (.9200 for non-Caps Gs). In the Eastern Conference, that number is .9201. Non-Caps SED goalies are at .9155. That’s actually a decent gap. (And the Division ES SV% is .9174 if you add the Caps Gs back in.) Non-SED Eastern Conference Gs are .9240. But again, let’s pull out games involving the Caps. Non-Caps EC average ES SV% goes to .9256, SED average to .9166.
Non-Caps SED goaltending is clearly weak. But how much of a difference is there between .9256 and .9166? Over 10,000 even-strength shots on goal, the difference between a non-Caps SED goalie and a non-Caps NHL goalie is 90 saves, which is one save every 111 shots on goal. Doesn’t seem like all that much.
Bottom line: Caps, as a team, could expect a benefit of being in the SED to the tune of one extra SOG every six games and one extra goal for every 111 ES shots on.
Now tell me… how much do those numbers impact an individual player’s goal totals? Scoring goals in the NHL is hard against anyone. If one dude’s distribution seems to be heavy on one grouping of teams, it’s probably a coincidence.