Speculation: Canucks to move AHL affiliate to Lower Mainland after Utica agreement expires?

[Melvin]

You think this is that big a deal......i do not.

The previous regime was trying to do this before Abbotsford city started making outrageous financial demands of the Canucks so this is not a Benning thing. While it may be a Aquilini thing it makes sense why teams are doing this and it's has huge financial benefits to the franchise .

I fail to see how 1-2 yrs of developing in Utica is going to adversely affect the top young players coming to the Canucks and the others should be happy to play pro hockey and get paid handsomely to do so. The few extra days off and practises is not gonna be a big deal and the Airport location is pretty sweet for incoming flights as well.

Utica has 6-7 teams within a 2 hr bus ride the Canucks would have the same travel by air to California(5) Tuscon Winnipeg and Iowa roughly.

How Much Longer Should the Canucks Keep Their AHL Franchise in Utica?

I do not understand a lot of this post.

1) Please establish the "huge financial benefit." Please show me the numbers.
2) So they would have to change from bus to plane? Did you factor that into your calculation in [1]?
3) What adverse effects are you talking about? We are talking about comparing one to the other.
4) What "paid handsomely?" Most AHL players make something like 50-80K and will get paid the same whether in Utica or Abbotsford so I fail to see the relevance.

Again, Gilman and Gillis already crunched the numbers and decided it was more beneficial to put the team somewhere with a proven fan base and light travel. If you have conflicting numbers please show them.

 

[sting101]

I do not understand a lot of this post.

1) Please establish the "huge financial benefit." Please show me the numbers.
2) So they would have to change from bus to plane? Did you factor that into your calculation in [1]?
3) What adverse effects are you talking about? We are talking about comparing one to the other.
4) What "paid handsomely?" Most AHL players make something like 50-80K and will get paid the same whether in Utica or Abbotsford so I fail to see the relevance.

Again, Gilman and Gillis already crunched the numbers and decided it was more beneficial to put the team somewhere with a proven fan base and light travel. If you have conflicting numbers please show them.

Tom Mayenicht just did a segment on the success story of the Leafs and the Marlies and continuing the growth and development of that franchise in the GTA. Listen to the podcast and it will answer all of your questions.
Its a smart business model and not having to yank players 3000 miles across 3 time zones a bunch of times easily offsets the increased AHL travel for your best players.

 

[Catamarca Livin]

I do not understand a lot of this post.

1) Please establish the "huge financial benefit." Please show me the numbers.
2) So they would have to change from bus to plane? Did you factor that into your calculation in [1]?
3) What adverse effects are you talking about? We are talking about comparing one to the other.
4) What "paid handsomely?" Most AHL players make something like 50-80K and will get paid the same whether in Utica or Abbotsford so I fail to see the relevance.

Again, Gilman and Gillis already crunched the numbers and decided it was more beneficial to put the team somewhere with a proven fan base and light travel. If you have conflicting numbers please show them.

They crunched the numbers before 5 Cakifornia Ahl teams joined the league. So those are no longer are the numbers.

 

[Melvin]

Tom Mayenicht just did a segment on the success story of the Leafs and the Marlies and continuing the growth and development of that franchise in the GTA. Listen to the podcast and it will answer all of your questions.
Its a smart business model and not having to yank players 3000 miles across 3 time zones a bunch of times easily offsets the increased AHL travel for your best players.

Toronto is not Vancouver.

 

[Pip]

Tom Mayenicht just did a segment on the success story of the Leafs and the Marlies and continuing the growth and development of that franchise in the GTA. Listen to the podcast and it will answer all of your questions.
Its a smart business model and not having to yank players 3000 miles across 3 time zones a bunch of times easily offsets the increased AHL travel for your best players.

I don’t think that’s true. Unless they find themselves in a situation without much travel, then it’s best to stay in Utica. What works for Toronto won’t necessarily work for Vancouver. Moving to Cali could be a situation I see potentially working.

 

[Melvin]

They crunched the numbers before 5 Cakifornia Ahl teams joined the league. So those are no longer are the numbers.

That's a fair point, but California is, um, big, and not exactly next door. Have you ever driven to San Francisco? It is a long drive.

 

[StreetHawk]

Tom Mayenicht just did a segment on the success story of the Leafs and the Marlies and continuing the growth and development of that franchise in the GTA. Listen to the podcast and it will answer all of your questions.
Its a smart business model and not having to yank players 3000 miles across 3 time zones a bunch of times easily offsets the increased AHL travel for your best players.

But, the key difference between Toronto and Vancouver is the proximity to other ahl teams. Closest would be Stockton.

Marlies have Belleville, Laval, and 4 teams in New York State.

I don’t Think having the farm team in Abbotsford is a good idea unless Seattle has their farm team in say Tacoma, Olympia, or Bellevue. I think you need at least one other club that is close enough by bus.

 

[sting101]

Toronto is not Vancouver.

More money is better than less money

 

[Melvin]

More money is better than less money

You have yet to demonstrate that it will lead to more money. I have asked you to show your math twice now and been rebuffed.

 

[sting101]

You have yet to demonstrate that it will lead to more money. I have asked you to show your math twice now and been rebuffed.

Many franchises have moved their teams into close proximity and within their cities. Do you think they are doing this because it makes no economic sense to do so.

It's pretty simple. Supplying access to Canuck prospects at a cheaper price point allows fans many of which are children and teenagers a chance to invest in the organization and grow an attachment to the Canucks and the future players of the team. Having more people emotionally invested helps grow the product. Instead of people that went to the Whitecaps or whatever and grew away from the Canucks for example they keep the attachment and the kids that went to those games become the adults with good paying jobs that support the future Canucks and take their kids. ....make sense.

It's not just smart business.....There is a plethora of logistical benefits that are attached to Scouting, Coaching and access combined with a cool community bond between players and team.

The Night Market: March 28: Hour 2

27 and 33 minute marks have some good tidbits.

 

[Kryten]

Many franchises have moved their teams into close proximity and within their cities. Do you think they are doing this because it makes no economic sense to do so.

It's pretty simple. Supplying access to Canuck prospects at a cheaper price point allows fans many of which are children and teenagers a chance to invest in the organization and grow an attachment to the Canucks and the future players of the team. Having more people emotionally invested helps grow the product. Instead of people that went to the Whitecaps or whatever and grew away from the Canucks for example they keep the attachment and the kids that went to those games become the adults with good paying jobs that support the future Canucks and take their kids. ....make sense.

It's not just smart business.....There is a plethora of logistical benefits that are attached to Scouting, Coaching and access combined with a cool community bond between players and team.

The Night Market: March 28: Hour 2

27 and 33 minute marks have some good tidbits.

It has been somewhat proven in our situation to not make financial sense. I dont doubt your children and teenager fan theory but they arent the ones paying for tickets. Vancouver and area is already busy with the Canucks, Giants, BCHL etc. Logistical benefits to scouting, coaching? You do realize AHL teams players are usually draft picks and tweeners who have already been scouted up the wazoo right? Further updates can be done over phone or facetime between the two managements. If the west had the same proportion of teams and an empty die hard market sure go for it, but it doesnt, Utica does. There are too many cons to a few pros right now

 

[sting101]

It has been somewhat proven in our situation to not make financial sense. I dont doubt your children and teenager fan theory but they arent the ones paying for tickets. Vancouver and area is already busy with the Canucks, Giants, BCHL etc. Logistical benefits to scouting, coaching? You do realize AHL teams players are usually draft picks and tweeners who have already been scouted up the wazoo right? Further updates can be done over phone or facetime between the two managements. If the west had the same proportion of teams and an empty die hard market sure go for it, but it doesnt, Utica does. There are too many cons to a few pros right now

Why do you think so many teams are going this direction then?

 

[Kryten]

Why do you think so many teams are going this direction then?

Even if some are, check this picture, do you really moving ours to the Vancouver area is going to help us out? My god

Team Map/Directory | TheAHL.com | The American Hockey League

 

[me2]

That's a fair point, but California is, um, big, and not exactly next door. Have you ever driven to San Francisco? It is a long drive.

It is weird. Toronto wouldn't consider Florida close.

 

[Luck 6]

I’d rather stay in Utica. Great fan base.

 

[Melvin]

Many franchises have moved their teams into close proximity and within their cities. Do you think they are doing this because it makes no economic sense to do so.

Again. those teams are not in Vancouver. Other teams have a lot of teams nearby to them. How many teams as remote as Vancouver have done it? The only example is Winnipeg, and that is because there was already an established AHL team there before they got the NHL team. Every market is different. What's good for Toronto is not necessarily what is good for Vancouver.

It's pretty simple. Supplying access to Canuck prospects at a cheaper price point allows fans many of which are children and teenagers a chance to invest in the organization and grow an attachment to the Canucks and the future players of the team. Having more people emotionally invested helps grow the product. Instead of people that went to the Whitecaps or whatever and grew away from the Canucks for example they keep the attachment and the kids that went to those games become the adults with good paying jobs that support the future Canucks and take their kids. ....make sense.

That's all wonderful in theory. Show me the math. Show me the data. You said it will make them more money. Gillis and Gilman apparently have data that disagrees with your hypothesis. What is your contradicting data?

Nobody has denied that it might make sense for Toronto to have their AHL team close to them. Toronto is not Vancouver. We are talking about whether or not it makes sense for a team in Vancouver to have their AHL team be local, not whether it might make sense in theory for some other locations or if it would ever make sense in general. You refuse to focus on the logistics of Vancouver in particular and bring up Toronto as an absolutely irrelevant counterpoint.

If the Canucks were based in Anchorage would you still think it makes sense for them to have an AHL team there? Do you agree that the number of benefits go down the more remote you are to other clubs? Can you quantify this? What is the break-even point in terms of remoteness? How many mean KM away do you need to be from your nearest 5 clubs for it to make sense? You are the one who claimed that it would benefit them financially. I am asking you to show this. Show this for Vancouver, not hypothetical team X.

Show me the math. Your post has a lot of conjecture but few actual facts. Sure, it might make sense in theory that fans will go to Abbotsford to make games. Do you have any evidence that they will? We have some evidence that they won't. I won't. You can't make massive decisions like this just because you can posit some theory that makes intuitive sense, or because Toronto did it and it worked for them. You have to actually look at the logistics of your situation in particular.

If you keep bringing up Toronto as an example for what Vancouver should do, we will keep going in circles. Nobody denies that there are benefits. There are also costs. For Toronto, the benefits probably out-weight the costs. For Vancouver?

 

[Catamarca Livin]

That's a fair point, but California is, um, big, and not exactly next door. Have you ever driven to San Francisco? It is a long drive.

No but I have flown there think it was a couple hours. We could expect Seattle to put Ahl team close as well. If that happens will the rest of the western teams be far behind? I do not mind keeping team in Utica but I do not understand why anyone from Vancouver would argue against this.

 

[Melvin]

No but I have flown there think it was a couple hours. We could expect Seattle to put Ahl team close as well. If that happens will the rest of the western teams be far behind? I do not mind keeping team in Utica but I do not understand why anyone from Vancouver would argue against this.

I am not necessarily against them having an AHL team be closer, I just have not seen an actual compelling case for why it would be beneficial for them to make the move. The only argument that I've heard is that it makes sense at some gut-feeling, intuitive level, which is not how a decision like this should be made.

You are correct that if more AHL teams get added in proximity then it does change the math but I do not know what the breaking point is.

The Canucks spend a large portion of the season in places that are not close to Vancouver. The AHL team will also spend a large portion of the season in places not close to them. There is a way to calculate the actual benefits involved when sending players back-and-forth and I have not seen any compelling evidence that these benefits outweigh the costs of having the team undergo an objectively more difficult travel schedule.

 

[me2]

I am not necessarily against them having an AHL team be closer, I just have not seen an actual compelling case for why it would be beneficial for them to make the move. The only argument that I've heard is that it makes sense at some gut-feeling, intuitive level, which is not how a decision like this should be made.

You are correct that if more AHL teams get added in proximity then it does change the math but I do not know what the breaking point is.

The Canucks spend a large portion of the season in places that are not close to Vancouver. The AHL team will also spend a large portion of the season in places not close to them. There is a way to calculate the actual benefits involved when sending players back-and-forth and I have not seen any compelling evidence that these benefits outweigh the costs of having the team undergo an objectively more difficult travel schedule.

They would struggle to save more than 20 man games through local proximity, given half their games are on the road. They would lose that very quickly in AHL travel. A case could be made for putting the canucks AHL affiliate in south California, but Abbotsford isn't in SoCal.

 

[sting101]

Again. those teams are not in Vancouver. Other teams have a lot of teams nearby to them. How many teams as remote as Vancouver have done it? The only example is Winnipeg, and that is because there was already an established AHL team there before they got the NHL team. Every market is different. What's good for Toronto is not necessarily what is good for Vancouver.



That's all wonderful in theory. Show me the math. Show me the data. You said it will make them more money. Gillis and Gilman apparently have data that disagrees with your hypothesis. What is your contradicting data?

Nobody has denied that it might make sense for Toronto to have their AHL team close to them. Toronto is not Vancouver. We are talking about whether or not it makes sense for a team in Vancouver to have their AHL team be local, not whether it might make sense in theory for some other locations or if it would ever make sense in general. You refuse to focus on the logistics of Vancouver in particular and bring up Toronto as an absolutely irrelevant counterpoint.

If the Canucks were based in Anchorage would you still think it makes sense for them to have an AHL team there? Do you agree that the number of benefits go down the more remote you are to other clubs? Can you quantify this? What is the break-even point in terms of remoteness? How many mean KM away do you need to be from your nearest 5 clubs for it to make sense? You are the one who claimed that it would benefit them financially. I am asking you to show this. Show this for Vancouver, not hypothetical team X.

Show me the math. Your post has a lot of conjecture but few actual facts. Sure, it might make sense in theory that fans will go to Abbotsford to make games. Do you have any evidence that they will? We have some evidence that they won't. I won't. You can't make massive decisions like this just because you can posit some theory that makes intuitive sense, or because Toronto did it and it worked for them. You have to actually look at the logistics of your situation in particular.

If you keep bringing up Toronto as an example for what Vancouver should do, we will keep going in circles. Nobody denies that there are benefits. There are also costs. For Toronto, the benefits probably out-weight the costs. For Vancouver?

What data am i gonna show you? There is no historical precedent and Gillis and Gillman wanted to strike a deal but couldn't get a good enough one and that was when Iowa was the closest team. Since 7 teams are closer 6 in the Pacific time zone and potentially 9 with Vegas and Seattle following suit. Times have changed and so has Vancouvers demographic

It's not my "theory" .... Tom Mayenknecht who does the business market of sports has been theorizing that this would be a smart economic and logistical move with guests who work with sport organizations agreeing and providing context. I agree with them

If you don't like it you should call his show and try to challenge him. Personally i don't really care as long as our prospects are getting the best possible scenario.

 

[Melvin]

What data am i gonna show you? There is no historical precedent and Gillis and Gillman wanted to strike a deal but couldn't get a good enough one and that was when Iowa was the closest team. Since 7 teams are closer 6 in the Pacific time zone and potentially 9 with Vegas and Seattle following suit. Times have changed and so has Vancouvers demographic

It's not my "theory" .... Tom Mayenknecht who does the business market of sports has been theorizing that this would be a smart economic and logistical move with guests who work with sport organizations agreeing and providing context. I agree with them

If you don't like it you should call his show and try to challenge him. Personally i don't really care as long as our prospects are getting the best possible scenario.

What has Tom said about Vancouver in particular?

 

[ProstheticConscience]

Okay.

Is there anything and I mean anything *at all* that elevates this to anything other than sheer speculation? If not, can we just lock this out of respect to the Utica fans if for no other reason?

 

[F A N]

I would like to think that the Canucks' owners are not too concerned about the bottom line for their AHL team. The income they can generate from their AHL team really is peanuts compared to the rest of their operations. But that does not mean that the owners are willing to lose money.

It is important to note that Abbotsford's deal with the Flames was to guarantee the Flames an income of $5.7M. That of course was a poor deal for the city of Abbotsford who had one of the lowest attendances in the league and had to pay travel subsidies to other teams because they didn't play in a league with all those California teams back then. They did get an attendance boost when the Comets were in town. Of course, Abbotsford isn't the only option. There's also the Pacific Coliseum. Whether Canucks' AHL team can be significantly bigger draws in Abbotsford than the Heat or significantly better draws than the Giants at Pacific Coliseum is a big question mark.

Given that the Canucks can (most likely) simply renew with Utica, they have good bargaining position vis a vis the City of Abbotsford or PNE. There should be no risks to the Canucks losing money on their farm team.

Of course, as a Canucks fan, attendance and money should hopefully be secondary considerations. What is best for the Canucks and their prospects? The biggest reason for having a team out East (at least back then) was that by reducing travel time the players got to practice more. Looking at the AHL map, I think it is still the case, although not as bad as before. I think over in the Comets thread, the resident posters there commented that Utica is kind of a dump with nothing there. It may mean fewer distractions or it may mean a harder time convincing a player to go down to the AHL and play. Plus, it's kind of like drafting local guys, having a AHL team in BC might mean the player meets their future wife in BC.

 

[Intangibos]

Given how terrible the AHL team I doubt I'd even go if I was given free tickets and if it was in Abbotsford. This market can barely support a bad NHL team, never mind a terrible AHL team.

Over the past few years I didn't go several times when given tickets. Only time I went was because I didn't want to get my friend who gave me the tickets in trouble.
There have to be legitimate consequences for refusing for me to watch the Canucks live.

 

[mossey3535]

Only good thing about moving the farm team to GVR is watching yet another bad Aquaman decision blow up in his face.