Confirmed with Link: Canucks sign Brock Boeser to 3 year deal worth 5.875 million annually. | #607

[Orr4Norris]

The same reason you don't like the Matthews deal is why you should've wanted a long term extension that bought UFA years.

Remember when Draisatl extended and everyone freaked? Yet in 5 years he'll be, scoring 50goals and 100 points for $8.5m, Matthews will be doing it for $20m, and 32 year old Jeff Skinner will be making $9m for less than 60 points I'd imagine.

Had Draisatl signed a bridge like Boeser just did and was an RFA this summer, how much more than $8.5m do you think he'd have got for 50g 105p?

Normally I’m totally on the 8 year bandwagon. The savings on the cap are definitely worth it for elite players. Just look at Crosby’s cap hit for an example. But I don’t see Brock in that category...at least not yet.

He hasn’t had an injury free year in three years. He scored 29 goals in his rookie season and followed that up with 26 goals in more games played. He’s not particularly good on the defensive side of things and he plays the least valuable position.

If he explodes and becomes a 40/80 winger...which he is capable of...then I’ll be ecstatic. But he could continue to struggle staying healthy and top out as a 30/60 winger who is weak defensively.

 

[Bleach Clean]

So it's all about year 6 for you then? You wouldn't do that deal at 5 years, but that 6th year is worth having Boeser hit unrestricted free agency at 27? Is that correct?

I can't make sense of your question...

I would expect at least 6 years for a 7.5m AAV.

Remind me: Can Benning negotiate with Boeser during the final year of his deal?

To the question: You want to maximize the utility of the roster during Pettersson’s 5th and 6th year. His peak years, according to you. And so, how does Boeser most efficiently fit that timeline? With a new, higher AAV? Or, with a 7.5m AAV?

 

[timw33]

Remind me: Can Benning negotiate with Boeser during the final year of his deal?

Yep, my understanding is you can offer a player a new contract as of July 1st of the start of their final season. Exception is if you sign a 1 year deal you can't sign an extension until January 1st.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Normally I’m totally on the 8 year bandwagon. The savings on the cap are definitely worth it for elite players. Just look at Crosby’s cap hit for an example. But I don’t see Brock in that category...at least not yet.

He hasn’t had an injury free year in three years. He scored 29 goals in his rookie season and followed that up with 26 goals in more games played. He’s not particularly good on the defensive side of things and he plays the least valuable position.

If he explodes and becomes a 40/80 winger...which he is capable of...then I’ll be ecstatic. But he could continue to struggle staying healthy and top out as a 30/60 winger who is weak defensively.

Honest question: What do you project a 60 point 1way winger will get in AAV 4 years from now?

Use the average cap increase of 15% over the last 6 years as your guide.

 

[Orr4Norris]

Honest question: What do you project a 60 point 1way winger will get in AAV 4 years from now?

Use the average cap increase of 15% over the last 6 years as your guide.

It doesn’t matter. I would argue don’t use a lot of your cap space on a one way winger unless they are elite. Like I would not have signed the Skinner deal.

 

[Hoghandler]

I would expect at least 6 years for a 7.5m AAV.

To the question: You want to maximize the utility of the roster during Pettersson’s 5th and 6th year. His peak years, according to you. And so, how does Boeser most efficiently fit that timeline? With a new, higher AAV? Or, with a 7.5m AAV?

If you yourself have zero interest in a 5 year deal at $7.5mil, surely you can see why some would have reservations about a 6 year deal at $7.5mil?

Ideally you maximize the utility of the roster during every one of Pettersson's prime years. That includes this year, right through his 20's. The 3 year deal gives you better utility in year 1-3, less utility in years 4-6, but a greater likelihood of keeping Brock around from when Pettersson is 26-30'ish.

Just not interested in seeing Brock reach UFA status when Hughes and Pettersson are 25 and 26 respectively.

 

[mriswith]

Let me get this straight, you think the final QO has nothing to do with the baseline from which Boeser wishes to negotiate from with his next contract? Absolutely nothing. If it does, why is that baseline number 7.5m and not 7m? Why not 8m?

That's not been your argument, you are trying to adjust it on the fly.

Your argument has been that Boeser would have accepted precisely 7.5 x 6 years. My argument is that we don't know that and concluding that a specific number and term would have gotten it done is not a reasonable conclusion with what we know, not even close.

Meaning, if Boeser was actually asking for 8m per, like you suppose is equally as plausible, why isn’t 8m the baseline negotiating position to his next deal?

I think you're reading into the QO way too much without nearly enough support for the conclusion you're grasping at. The QO means he secures an additional year at 7.5, not that he would have accepted 7.5 as a long term offer, although as Friedman clarified he actually only secures himself 6.375 mil for that 4th year due to the ability to cram-down the 4th year.

If it does not suggest the new negotiating baseline, I want to hear your thoughts on what you think that number means?

It means he wants to be paid 7.5 in his last year and between 6.375 and 7.5 mil in the 4th year. I don't know what else it means because there hasn't been nearly enough evidence provided to draw any additional conclusions.

Next, you listened to the interview and there was “nothing to even remotely suggest a 7.5m by 6 year contract”... Really? You get the tweet of the 7 by 6 offer from Sekeras. Hakinson then comes on to say they were close to a long-term deal. QO ends up being 7.5m, magically. This does not in any way remotely suggest that 500k AAV could have been the difference? Ok... Sure.

Again, that's not your argument that it "could" have been the difference. Your argument is that it "was" the difference, and I think this leap of logic is absolutely enormous and it's absurd to be so certain.

I have no problem with anyone saying maybe 7.5 x 6 gets done. I do think it's ridiculous to say that 7.5 x 6 definitely would have gotten it done and that's what we've been going back and forth on since my first post in this thread.

 

[Dana Murzyn]

If Benning had a figure he couldn't go above ... it was because of the lack of cap space, so you're just arguing the same thing a different way.

I also suspect they were caught off-guard by the cap recapture. Everyone assumed Luongo would just go on LTIR.

There's just no way that they were working on a deal for a year, get 'very close' and then the team decides to go a completely different direction at the exact point where they sign a whole pile of big contracts (and have the cap recapture) which make a long-term deal impossible, and it's not because of the lack of cap space.

You keep saying "couldn't" when I keep saying "wouldn't". It's the key distinction in the whole argument.

It's like, I didn't want Benning to overpay for Boeser, and you didn't want Benning to overpay for Boeser, but you're convinced Benning surely wanted to overpay for Boeser, and would have too, if his other blunders hadn't prevented him from doing so. This way, you get to be happy about the reasonable deal Benning struck while condemning him for failing to make a worse deal. Nothing about that position seems kinda strained to you?

Anyway, I suspect we've exhausted this topic, so I'll tap out. As always, I appreciate your take on things, and I even enjoyed being on Benning's side for a change. It's a foreign land over here.

 

[4Twenty]

Normally I’m totally on the 8 year bandwagon. The savings on the cap are definitely worth it for elite players. Just look at Crosby’s cap hit for an example. But I don’t see Brock in that category...at least not yet.

He hasn’t had an injury free year in three years. He scored 29 goals in his rookie season and followed that up with 26 goals in more games played. He’s not particularly good on the defensive side of things and he plays the least valuable position.

If he explodes and becomes a 40/80 winger...which he is capable of...then I’ll be ecstatic. But he could continue to struggle staying healthy and top out as a 30/60 winger who is weak defensively.

The gripe is that he's going to come in at $7.5m minimum anyways even if he tops out at what he is. ROE has brought this up countless times already, as have I.....Jeff Skinners's career high is 63 points, he just signed for $9m/year.

I recognize the risk and I wasn't really speaking to wanting an 8 year deal for Brock now anyways. But I think it's risky either way....he stagnates, he's getting close to $9m anyways, and if blows up he's going to be on a cap hit $3-6m higher than that 6-7 year bridge people have been advocating.

 

[4Twenty]

Honest question: What do you project a 60 point 1way winger will get in AAV 4 years from now?

Use the average cap increase of 15% over the last 6 years as your guide.

Jeff Skinner's cap % in 4 years at an assumed $90m upper cap limit is $9.9m AAV. I think the upper limit will blow past $90m on the backs of the new us tv deal and seattle expansion.

 

[4Twenty]

You keep saying "couldn't" when I keep saying "wouldn't". It's the key distinction in the whole argument.

It's like, I didn't want Benning to overpay for Boeser, and you didn't want Benning to overpay for Boeser, but you're convinced Benning surely wanted to overpay for Boeser, and would have too, if his other blunders hadn't prevented him from doing so. This way, you get to be happy about the reasonable deal Benning struck while condemning him for failing to make a worse deal. Nothing about that position seems kinda strained to you?

Anyway, I suspect we've exhausted this topic, so I'll tap out. As always, I appreciate your take on things, and I even enjoyed being on Benning's side for a change. It's a foreign land over here.

If you were reading his posts and the name on the top didn't say MS and said 'biggest canucks fan' I highly doubt you'd think this was a strained opinion looking to condemn Benning. Your using history to bias your opinion of what he's saying, instead of reading it as commenting on the contract, what it means for the here and now and what it could mean for the future salary impacts.

But the lines are drawn, people have taken sides and if you don't think you're on a side, you're doing the same things the polar extremes are....splitting the group.

 

[Addison Rae]

The salary cap is going to be flat next year and Boeser’s extension will be pretty much in line with the new US TV deal.

You’re likely looking at 8.5+on a long term deal at that point considering you’ll also be buying UFA years.

 

[pettersson]

Yes, a bridge deal can go sour quick but people forget that so can a long term deal. A bridge deal is actually much safer rn. So you pay him 3 yrs at a very valuable cap-hit (come on, he's been injured but we all know his value is more than what he signed for..even without playing a full season.) If it works out, and he actually improves (I don't doubt this happens) his cap hit will go up BUT that's actually a good thing as it means
a) we have him at an even more valuable contract now
b) we buy more UFA years than an original long-term contact would and at a time when (assuming) cap hit is up, and all/most of these vets are done. By that time we will also HOPEFULLY have other guys on ELCs... This is the sort of balance you want to have otherwise yeah.. you do end up like the leafs with only top guys and no army.

 

[krutovsdonut]

You keep saying "couldn't" when I keep saying "wouldn't". It's the key distinction in the whole argument.

It's like, I didn't want Benning to overpay for Boeser, and you didn't want Benning to overpay for Boeser, but you're convinced Benning surely wanted to overpay for Boeser, and would have too, if his other blunders hadn't prevented him from doing so. This way, you get to be happy about the reasonable deal Benning struck while condemning him for failing to make a worse deal. Nothing about that position seems kinda strained to you?

Anyway, I suspect we've exhausted this topic, so I'll tap out. As always, I appreciate your take on things, and I even enjoyed being on Benning's side for a change. It's a foreign land over here.

i can't like this post enough. bravo.

 

[F A N]

You keep saying "couldn't" when I keep saying "wouldn't". It's the key distinction in the whole argument.

It's like, I didn't want Benning to overpay for Boeser, and you didn't want Benning to overpay for Boeser, but you're convinced Benning surely wanted to overpay for Boeser, and would have too, if his other blunders hadn't prevented him from doing so. This way, you get to be happy about the reasonable deal Benning struck while condemning him for failing to make a worse deal. Nothing about that position seems kinda strained to you?

Anyway, I suspect we've exhausted this topic, so I'll tap out. As always, I appreciate your take on things, and I even enjoyed being on Benning's side for a change. It's a foreign land over here.

Exactly. He says 6 years at $7M AAV was an overpayment yet condemns Benning for not signing Boeser to a long term contract by offering an even greater overpayment.

 

[Peter10]

Yes, a bridge deal can go sour quick but people forget that so can a long term deal. A bridge deal is actually much safer rn. So you pay him 3 yrs at a very valuable cap-hit (come on, he's been injured but we all know his value is more than what he signed for..even without playing a full season.) If it works out, and he actually improves (I don't doubt this happens) his cap hit will go up BUT that's actually a good thing as it means
a) we have him at an even more valuable contract now
b) we buy more UFA years than an original long-term contact would and at a time when (assuming) cap hit is up, and all/most of these vets are done. By that time we will also HOPEFULLY have other guys on ELCs... This is the sort of balance you want to have otherwise yeah.. you do end up like the leafs with only top guys and no army.

This is weird take.

a) you prefer to have a lower cap hit while this team is pretty far from competing
b) you want to pay a significant higher cap hit while also Pettersson, Hughes and Horvat will be on big ticket contracts and you also want to pay him a high salary in the 2nd half the 8 year deal when his play will be surely on decline

It would be much smarter to have him signed to an 8 year deal now which would include his 22-30 year old season. Having a ~2m higher cap hit over the next 3 years would have been a non-issue if it wasnt for the incompetent GM handing out stupid contracts to 4th liners. By the time Boeser gets to 29-30y he may already be in decline and accept a better deal or the team could just move on instead of overpaying for past achiements.
Now the team may sign him to 8y / 12m in 2022 and be stick with a ~4m higher cap hit from 2022 till 2027 and has another 3y with about 12m cap hit when he is only a shadow of his former self.
This doesnt even take into account that he could just go to the arbitrator in 2022 and get himself a 2y deal till UFA in 2024.
Incompetence at its best.

 

[Canucko]

This is weird take.

a) you prefer to have a lower cap hit while this team is pretty far from competing
b) you want to pay a significant higher cap hit while also Pettersson, Hughes and Horvat will be on big ticket contracts and you also want to pay him a high salary in the 2nd half the 8 year deal when his play will be surely on decline

It would be much smarter to have him signed to an 8 year deal now which would include his 22-30 year old season. Having a ~2m higher cap hit over the next 3 years would have been a non-issue if it wasnt for the incompetent GM handing out stupid contracts to 4th liners. By the time Boeser gets to 29-30y he may already be in decline and accept a better deal or the team could just move on instead of overpaying for past achiements.
Now the team may sign him to 8y / 12m in 2022 and be stick with a ~4m higher cap hit from 2022 till 2027 and has another 3y with about 12m cap hit when he is only a shadow of his former self.
This doesnt even take into account that he could just go to the arbitrator in 2022 and get himself a 2y deal till UFA in 2024.
Incompetence at its best.

Why do you ignore their first sentence?

 

[sting101]

Does anyone have evidence that Boeser would accept a 8 year deal?

All these "should have" comments don't make a lot of sense unless he was willing to take a 8yr contract and furthermore (and this is touched on Tim and Sid) Brocks injury history should be a concern if you are slapping 8yr deals on the table.

Anyways i find it funny that the same guys that are punching holes in this deal are some of the one's that were defending the Marner contract.

 

[Peter10]

Why do you ignore their first sentence?

Who is "their"? I was replying to one person.

And to answer your question, because it goes all wrong as of the second sentence.

 

[Canucko]

Who is "their"? I was replying to one person.

And to answer your question, because it goes all wrong as of the second sentence.

Yes, their...

Keep up with the straw man.

 

[604]

Just for an extra kind of weird position, I think Boeser kind of plays like Eberle and has the same deficiencies as a Taylor Hall, but Hall's strengths are stronger than Boeser's.

I believe both of the former Oiler players development were hurt because they got big long-term contracts coming out of ELC. They could basically not listen and outlast their coaches and essentially did.

It's not fun to work on defense and some players would rather not do it. If you have six or seven years guaranteed cash, you could work on one-timers all day long because its funner than working on defensive stick positioning and battling or reviewing film.

Just trying to provide a differing opinion.

 

[TraderJim]

Yes, their...

Keep up with the straw man.

Nobody believes you are arguing in good faith. Nobody.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Nobody believes you are arguing in good faith. Nobody.

what a shitty post.

 

[Canucko]

Nobody believes you are arguing in good faith. Nobody.

Who are you?

 

[krutovsdonut]

Just for an extra kind of weird position, I think Boeser kind of plays like Eberle and has the same deficiencies as a Taylor Hall, but Hall's strengths are stronger than Boeser's.

I believe both of the former Oiler players development were hurt because they got big long-term contracts coming out of ELC. They could basically not listen and outlast their coaches and essentially did.

It's not fun to work on defense and some players would rather not do it. If you have six or seven years guaranteed cash, you could work on one-timers all day long because its funner than working on defensive stick positioning and battling or reviewing film.

Just trying to provide a differing opinion.

fair points. i think as a bigger point, the oilers have hurt themselves culturally by signalling their insecurity about guys leaving. it's like dating.